Property Market 2019

mariaalice

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the link below is the property register sales volume report, October looks like the lowest volume in a long time

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

That could be accounted for by people deciding to not sell as they know they wont get the price they have in mind it need to distinguish bewteen new and second had sales for better information.

Something that is happening near me and happened during the downturn as well, houses coming on the market just as rumors of it being the top of this market start floating around why would anyone do that I never understood it.

19233974

mariaalice wrote: »

Again its probably easier and more stable to get finance for that sort of property development.

yea i understand that but surely the government needs to intervene if all new apt builds are being build-to-let, make a stipulation that 15% must be sold as a requirement for all these developments. keeps up supply somewhat while still making it worthwhile for the developers

beauf

19233974 wrote: »

...but surely the government needs to intervene...

They've done should a good job thus far, they need to more of the same... really?

Reversal

mariaalice wrote: »

That is an incorrect reading of he article, it's about financing, the central bank rulse have put a ceiling on house prices and developers are finding it more difficult to put a financing package together. The demand is still there.

While property development is still profitabe its not as profitable plus its getting less profitable and because of that the money has move on to other investing.

CB rules also having an impact of course. But are you saying that the article does not ALSO state that there IS a build up of unsold stock and that's also putting off Investors?

"There has been an increase in unsold stock over the past 12-18 months, led by Dublin,” he said.

As a result some builders are finding it difficult to get funding for additional building until those unsold inventories are reduced, Mr O’Leary said."

I'm not saying that affordability isn't causing this. But there is an buildup of unsold stock. How can there be a buildup of unsold stock while demand is as high has ever. The demand is NOT there at current prices. Of course affordability is the cause, I think bits one of many, the demand won't return until prices drop.

A lot of the cash is gone, those folks jumped early in the rise of the market. So there may be further to drop than people think.

Cyrus

Reversal wrote: »

CB rules also having an impact of course. But are you saying that the article does not ALSO state that there IS a build up of unsold stock and that's also putting off Investors?

"There has been an increase in unsold stock over the past 12-18 months, led by Dublin,” he said.

As a result some builders are finding it difficult to get funding for additional building until those unsold inventories are reduced, Mr O’Leary said."

I'm not saying that affordability isn't causing this. But there is an buildup of unsold stock. How can there be a buildup of unsold stock while demand is as high has ever. The demand is NOT there at current prices. Of course affordability is the cause, I think bits one of many, the demand won't return until prices drop.

A lot of the cash is gone, those folks jumped early in the rise of the market. So there may be further to drop than people think.

the corollary is that builders will constrict supply, they wont build more if current stock isnt selling, they cant get the financing to do it anyway.

mariaalice

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Yea I worked as an investment analyst for a medium sized Irish developer in 2016, they were financing green field housing estates at 16% interest. My credit card has lower rates.

While in theory it makes sense to build & release the entire amount of housing at the same time, the phased 15-20 house building was the most secure way to do it for two reasons, one was that your capital outlay (i.e. amount financed) was low should the market tank. Second was that you could capitalise on the gradual increase in house prices & throw 5k on the price for each subsequent release.

It'll be interesting to see does that second reason get switched on it's head now that prices have plateaued.

Now that would be interesting if anyone has come across a new phrase of a development that has come down in price from the first phase, not a bit of deal for last one or two they want to get rid of a wholesale decrease in price even by 5k.

dor843088

I live in a commuter town and its literally gone from a tidal wave of buyers to tumbleweed in the last 18 months. Houses were getting snapped up within a couple of weeks of going on sale. Now the same type of house in the same neighbourhood are lingering on the market for months and months and not budging. The difference is stark. Eerily similar to the last boom and bust

Dav010

dor843088 wrote: »

I live in a commuter town and its literally gone from a tidal wave of buyers to tumbleweed in the last 18 months. Houses were getting snapped up within a couple of weeks of going on sale. Now the same type of house in the same neighbourhood are lingering on the market for months and months and not budging. The difference is stark. Eerily similar to the last boom and bust

The prices have probably reached a threshold where the majority of buyers cannot raise the 20% deposit. Also, I think buyers are a lot more savvy now than they were 15 years ago. Many would have been in secondary school then, but are very aware of the consequences of taking on too much debt and paying to much.

It is good to hear that prices have stabilised and even fallen, it shows that the rules put in place by the CB are having the desired effect, but that is no benefit to someone who needs to have 60-80k in savings to buy an average sized house.

19233974

I went to a viewing in ranelagh on saturday for a 2 bed up for 395k, had been reduced from 440k, about 15-20 people viewing it so still fairly healthy demand.

It needed at the absolute minimum 50k to be put into it, apparently it went sale agreed at 398k and that fell through.

Dav010

19233974 wrote: »

I went to a viewing in ranelagh on saturday for a 2 bed up for 395k, had been reduced from 440k, about 15-20 people viewing it so still fairly healthy demand.

It needed at the absolute minimum 50k to be put into it, apparently it went sale agreed at 398k and that fell through.

I’m closing a house sale this week, there was a lot of interest and sold quickly so it really depends on lots of factors.

19233974

Dav010 wrote: »

I’m closing a house sale this week, there was a lot of interest and sold quickly so it really depends on lots of factors.

tbf as far as i can recall theres only about 4 properties in ranelagh for sale under 400k, and the others were old awful apartments so i could see how it would have appealed to young couples.

Although i reckon there is about 100k worth of work to be done to it, so for 500k i dont think its great value.

awec

19233974 wrote: »

tbf as far as i can recall theres only about 4 properties in ranelagh for sale under 400k, and the others were old awful apartments so i could see how it would have appealed to young couples.

Although i reckon there is about 100k worth of work to be done to it, so for 500k i dont think its great value.

It's Ranelagh though. Will always be in high demand.

Trendy, affluent area with lots of pubs and amenities, walking distance to city centre.

19233974

awec wrote: »

It's Ranelagh though. Will always be in high demand.

Trendy, affluent area with lots of pubs and amenities, walking distance to city centre.

yea the location is exceptional, although i think for what will probably be a 500k spend for a 2 bed 50sqm mid terrace, it is definitely over priced even by todays standards. I imagine it will be snapped up

Bluefoam

19233974 wrote: »

yea the location is exceptional, although i think for what will probably be a 500k spend for a 2 bed 50sqm mid terrace, it is definitely over priced even by todays standards. I imagine it will be snapped up

Well then how is it overpriced? If the price meets demand, then it is suitably priced.

19233974

Bluefoam wrote: »

Well then how is it overpriced? If the price meets demand, then it is suitably priced.

Well because it has not sold yet thats the first thing. Also comparing it to other 500k properties i feel there are better properties in that range. Hence why i feel its over priced. but it time will tell

awec

I think places like Ranelagh really are just a rule onto themselves.

The area is just so desirable that there are people who will pay a lot of money for almost anything in the area, just to get into the area. It's better than D4 IMO.

Bluefoam

awec wrote: »

I think places like Ranelagh really are just a rule onto themselves.

The area is just so desirable that there are people who will pay a lot of money for almost anything in the area, just to get into the area. It's better than D4 IMO.

Thats how property works... you pay more for better amenities and supposedly better neighbours...

Cyrus

19233974 wrote: »

yea the location is exceptional, although i think for what will probably be a 500k spend for a 2 bed 50sqm mid terrace, it is definitely over priced even by todays standards. I imagine it will be snapped up

it probably wont be 50sqm once you spend 100k though.

riclad

There,s very few house,s for sale in ranelagh ,so there will always be buyers and viewers for a house in that area .even if the property market is slowing down .
If a builder finds an empty site there they will build offices on it or high class apartments .

Mic 1972

mariaalice wrote: »

That could be accounted for by people deciding to not sell as they know they wont get the price they have in mind it need to distinguish bewteen new and second had sales for better information.

the peak of the market is the best moment to sell a property, anyone looking to make a profit will have no reason to hold back now. The thing is, sales are registered months later, so what the report is showing in October is the reflection of what happened 2-3 month ago. This is consistent with the number of accounts reporting sales declining in Q3 and Q4. The numbers are starting to show

mariaalice wrote: »

Something that is happening near me and happened during the downturn as well, houses coming on the market just as rumors of it being the top of this market start floating around why would anyone do that I never understood it.

In my opinion the property market is still full of investors who just wait for the right moment to sell, that explains why houses appear on the market when rumors about market peaking start to circulate

Mic 1972

riclad wrote: »

There,s very few house,s for sale in ranelagh ,so there will always be buyers and viewers for a house in that area .even if the property market is slowing down .
If a builder finds an empty site there they will build offices on it or high class apartments .

high end areas are the last ones to drop, in fact the decline began in Dublin North/West a year ago

riclad

The market has already peaked,
prices have fallen a few per cent in the past 7 months .the only reason to hold off selling now ,is maybe for tax reason,s
eg wait for the start of 2020 , for the new tax year to begin.

IspeakcozIcan

Rise in housing starts in third quarter. Previous reports on slowdown possible overstated. Good news.



https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/housing-commencement-notices-jump-despite-reports-of-slowdown-1.4079613

Assetbacked

The new daft.ie report makes grim reading;

https://touch.daft.ie/report

The FF/FG government have utterly failed the young workers who have been renting. The policies have had no impact on fixing the problem which means, yet again we will need international help to fix a property problem of our own doing. A slowdown in MNC activity so that new people aren't arriving on the shores each week is vital to try and let the growth of the past few years bed down and have supply pick up. Talk of a global slowdown is most certainly music to the ears of renting workers in Dublin.

Bluefoam

Assetbacked wrote: »

The new daft.ie report makes grim reading;

https://touch.daft.ie/report

The FF/FG government have utterly failed the young workers who have been renting. The policies have had no impact on fixing the problem which means, yet again we will need international help to fix a property problem of our own doing. A slowdown in MNC activity so that new people aren't arriving on the shores each week is vital to try and let the growth of the past few years bed down and have supply pick up. Talk of a global slowdown is most certainly music to the ears of renting workers in Dublin.

Yet cocaine use is up, 5 billion spent on holidays last year, reports this morning of rise in disposable income... People have money to spend & the housing supply is bought up... Question: do people have their priorities right?

Assetbacked

Bluefoam wrote: »

Yet cocaine use is up, 5 billion spent on holidays last year, reports this morning of rise in disposable income... People have money to spend & the housing supply is bought up... Question: do people have their priorities right?

If that's a fair argument then it's fair to say that old people aren't dying fast enough to bring supply back on the market so the government should tax them to their graves.

smurgen

Bluefoam wrote: »

Yet cocaine use is up, 5 billion spent on holidays last year, reports this morning of rise in disposable income... People have money to spend & the housing supply is bought up... Question: do people have their priorities right?

I don't get ya. Should every last penny we have be spent on housing? If there's a rise in disposable income who says landlords or property speculators have a right to it? Surely those that earned it can spend it in any manner they seem fit.

Bluefoam

Assetbacked wrote: »

If that's a fair argument then it's fair to say that old people aren't dying fast enough to bring supply back on the market so the government should tax them to their graves.

No, its not fair to say that at all. You seem to be a rather disturbed individual.

I don't understand how you can equate personal financial prudence with wanting to kill old people so that you can have a cheep house.

Odd statement to say the least.

19233974

Bluefoam wrote: »

Yet cocaine use is up, 5 billion spent on holidays last year, reports this morning of rise in disposable income... People have money to spend & the housing supply is bought up... Question: do people have their priorities right?

so a rise in disposable income makes paying close to 1000 per month for a room in a shared house ok?

Bluefoam

smurgen wrote: »

I don't get ya. Should every last penny we have be spent on housing? If there's a rise in disposable income who says landlords or property speculators have a right to it? Surely those that earned it can spend it in any manner they seem fit.

You can spend your money as you want... Prioritise your needs, and spend as you wish.

The fact that someone else owns a property that they rent out, shows that they made that one of their priorities & therefore is entitled to rent it out... at a price that the market is willing to pay...