Property Market 2019

Bluefoam

pearcider wrote: »

Point being when this recession hits, there is no way for the central banks to bail the world out again. Finally, after all the crazy bailouts of the past 19 years, the piper will be paid.

First of all, you are talking about a hypothetical extreme recession. Secondly, what exactly do you think will happen even in your predicted catastrophic scenario... Even if the banks fail.... Those who own homes will continue to own homes. Those who don't own won't be able to finance homes. Rent will be astronomical

Who is the Piper you talk of? What exactly do you think is going to happen. The reality is that if there is a catastrophic failure.... There will be a period of deep recession & a reorganization of financial services... Then things will proceed again. But at that stage, if you don't own a home, you are unlikely to ever own a home.

Lucky for me, I don't believe in your fantasy.

pearcider

Bluefoam wrote: »

First of all, you are talking about a hypothetical extreme recession. Secondly, what exactly do you think will happen even in your predicted catastrophic scenario... Even if the banks fail.... Those who own homes will continue to own homes. Those who don't own won't be able to finance homes. Rent will be astronomical

Who is the Piper you talk of? What exactly do you think is going to happen. The reality is that if there is a catastrophic failure.... There will be a period of deep recession & a reorganization of financial services... Then things will proceed again. But at that stage, if you don't own a home, you are unlikely to ever own a home.

Lucky for me, I don't believe in your fantasy.

It’s not a fantasy it’s just reality. The US has been off the rails since 1998 doubling their debt every 8 years and that trend is accelerating. But hey don’t let the facts bother you.

I’ll break it down for you. Buy low. Sell high. Definitely don’t make the biggest purchase of your life at the top of an over inflated market. Which is exactly where we are.

Keep your powder dry and buy a house for what they used to cost. Four times the average income which is about 200k. Which is exactly where they were before the central banks leveraged our own governments and reflated this property bubble that collapsed spectacularly in 2006-2008 and which will absolutely collapse again.

Marius34

pearcider wrote: »

Keep your powder dry and buy a house for what they used to cost. Four times the average income which is about 200k. Which is exactly where they were before the central banks leveraged our own governments and reflated this property bubble that collapsed spectacularly in 2006-2008 and which will absolutely collapse again.

Have you heard of any country in Europe where 4 times average salary would buy an average home? No, you won't find, don't expect Ireland to be an exception.

Interested Observer

Just keep in mind whenever you read a figure that pearcider claims to be a fact:

pearcider wrote: »

Sorry my figures were out. I don’t check them before I post as I’m not writing a peer review paper here. However the thrust of my argument is unchanged.

But yes everyone wait for that magical recession where house prices collapse but you remain totally unaffected and will have no problem getting a mortgage.

Wanderer78

pearcider wrote:

It’s not a fantasy it’s just reality. The US has been off the rails since 1998 doubling their debt every 8 years and that trend is accelerating. But hey don’t let the facts bother you.

Is that public or private debt? It's important to remember that it was the rapid rise of private debt that caused the previous crash.

Bigmac1euro

It’s as clear as day prices are dropping and will continue to drop. For this reason I’m holding out until July. The worst thing that can happen. Prices stall. Well worth the imo.
We are still near the top of the market though prices have fallen a bit. But at the same time I don’t wanna be suckered. July will be grand woooo!

Interested Observer

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

It’s as clear as day prices are dropping and will continue to drop. For this reason I’m holding out until July. The worst thing that can happen. Prices stall. Well worth the imo.
We are still near the top of the market though prices have fallen a bit. But at the same time I don’t wanna be suckered. July will be grand woooo!

Are you paying rent in the meantime?

Villa05

Bluefoam wrote:

Irish house prices are not overvalued:

That Irish times article is stark. Headline says House prices are not over valued while a highlighted quote in the text reads

House prices in Dublin are 9 times average salary. Prices not seen since the height of the boom.


No risks there then!

Bigmac1euro

Interested Observer wrote: »

Are you paying rent in the meantime?

Yep 500 euro per month

Mic 1972

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

Yep 500 euro per month

You are doing the right thing being realistic about the market and waiting a few months before making any decision

Nobody wants a crash - at least not me - but if the sings are pointing downward it makes no sense to take on a huge mortgage now

lawred2

Villa05 wrote: »

That Irish times article is stark. Headline says House prices are not over valued while a highlighted quote in the text reads

House prices in Dublin are 9 times average salary. Prices not seen since the height of the boom.


No risks there then!

9 times the average salary in Ireland?

What about house prices in Dublin compared to the average household incomes in Dublin?

Only those living and working in Dublin are looking to buy there so it's not really relevant what someone in North Kerry or West Donegal is earning.

Marius34

Marius34 wrote: »

Have you heard of any country in Europe where 4 times average salary would buy an average home? No, you won't find, don't expect Ireland to be an exception.

Ireland is just part of a broader worldwide unsustainable trend. Just like 2008.

Mad_maxx

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland is just part of a broader worldwide unsustainable trend. Just like 2008.

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

coolshannagh28

pearcider wrote: »

Point being when this recession hits, there is no way for the central banks to bail the world out again. Finally, after all the crazy bailouts of the past 19 years, the piper will be paid.

A debt reset and new central banking order but will be an interesting time.

missforgetfull

Hello Everyone,

We had our house evaluated during the summer and 2 property agents said we would get 475k and anything more would be a bonus. We are now on market a little over a month and we’re standing at 460k. Has there been a change in the market since our evaluation or is it still too early? btw the house is in Dublin

awec

pearcider wrote: »

It’s not a fantasy it’s just reality. The US has been off the rails since 1998 doubling their debt every 8 years and that trend is accelerating. But hey don’t let the facts bother you.

I’ll break it down for you. Buy low. Sell high. Definitely don’t make the biggest purchase of your life at the top of an over inflated market. Which is exactly where we are.

Keep your powder dry and buy a house for what they used to cost. Four times the average income which is about 200k. Which is exactly where they were before the central banks leveraged our own governments and reflated this property bubble that collapsed spectacularly in 2006-2008 and which will absolutely collapse again.

Is your thinking here that after another catastrophic collapse, there's going to be houses being sold for 200k all over the country?

What houses are you going to buy, and where are you going to get the finance to buy them?

If anything like 2008 happens again, well there'll be a tonne of people in negative equity, so you can forget about them selling their houses. There'll be widespread job losses, so those people certainly aren't going to be selling their gaffes. Developers will go bust as an absolute certainty, so new housing stock will once again stop.

In the mean time, our banks will almost certainly collapse, unable to absorb the shock a second time, so you can pretty much forget about getting a mortgage as nobody will have any money to lend you.

People can definitely make savings if they wait long enough, and they're lucky enough with their rent being low. But this picking up a house for a fraction of what they cost now is truly delusional, fantastical stuff.

mcbert

missforgetfull wrote: »

Hello Everyone,

We had our house evaluated during the summer and 2 property agents said we would get 475k and anything more would be a bonus. We are now on market a little over a month and we’re standing at 460k. Has there been a change in the market since our evaluation or is it still too early? btw the house is in Dublin

One month or so is not long enough, wait a few more weeks

awec

missforgetfull wrote: »

Hello Everyone,

We had our house evaluated during the summer and 2 property agents said we would get 475k and anything more would be a bonus. We are now on market a little over a month and we’re standing at 460k. Has there been a change in the market since our evaluation or is it still too early? btw the house is in Dublin

Bad time of the year to be selling I’d say which won’t help things.

awec

Also, this "buy low, sell high" stuff really is the most daft over-simplification of reality.

In the real world it is not a case of picking when you buy, unless you're a some wealthy single person living with mummy and daddy.

House prices are cheap during recessionary times because it is incredibly difficult to buy relative to boom times. A shortage of buyers (which is caused by various reasons, for example job cuts, banks with less money to lend) drives down prices. When it becomes easier to buy, because people have more money or whatever, prices are driven up.

In the real world, the choice is more like buy when prices are high, and pay over what you could otherwise pay if you waited, got lucky, and prices dropped a bit. Or you can wait until a "crash", and run the [significant enough] risk or not being able to buy at all, but maybe you get lucky and you can and save yourself a good bit.

Mic 1972

awec wrote: »

Also, this "buy low, sell high" stuff really is the most daft over-simplification of reality.

In the real world it is not a case of picking when you buy, unless you're a some wealthy single person living with mummy and daddy.

House prices are cheap during recessionary times because it is incredibly difficult to buy relative to boom times. A shortage of buyers (which is caused by various reasons, for example job cuts, banks with less money to lend) drives down prices. When it becomes easier to buy, because people have more money or whatever, prices are driven up.

In the real world, the choice is more like buy when prices are high, and pay over what you could otherwise pay if you waited, got lucky, and prices dropped a bit. Or you can wait until a "crash", and run the [significant enough] risk or not being able to buy at all, but maybe you get lucky and you can and save yourself a good bit.

The real world is a combination of first time buyers, second home buyers, investors, cash buyers, people who are paying rent, and more. The property market is driven by all of them

People who have a margin to play with and are smart with money don't buy at the peak of the market when prices are showing sings of decline. That's exactly when you want to hold off and wait to see what happens

Bigmac1euro

Mic 1972 wrote: »

You are doing the right thing being realistic about the market and waiting a few months before making any decision

Nobody wants a crash - at least not me - but if the sings are pointing downward it makes no sense to take on a huge mortgage now

I feel I am, but I am slightly worried in relation to access to credit, that’s really the only risk. But I can’t see everything flipping upside down in 7/8 months.
But definitely some more time for price movement. I can understand people buying now paying colossal rent. The only thing with jumping early I suppose you also must add interest to the extra cost of the property over the life of the mortgage. Though you’ll barely feel it realistically.

missforgetfull

awec wrote: »

Bad time of the year to be selling I’d say which won’t help things.

True, I saw something recently that showed that October had shockingly low sales in regards to previous months this year. I’m staying patient with the slowdown in the market cause I have to buy too and cause i’m upgrading the new house hopefully will take longer to sell cause it’s in a higher price bracket than mine.

Mic 1972

missforgetfull wrote: »

True, I saw something recently that showed that October had shockingly low sales in regards to previous months this year. I’m staying patient with the slowdown in the market cause I have to buy too and cause i’m upgrading the new house hopefully will take longer to sell cause it’s in a higher price bracket than mine.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/


October has the lowest sales registered in years

missforgetfull

mcbert wrote: »

One month or so is not long enough, wait a few more weeks

I agree, it is early enough especially now considering the unexpected slowdown. I was just getting hesitant cause I was told that I should be sale agreed around the 6-8 week mark and that for us is starting next week. Fingers crossed all goes well!

awec

missforgetfull wrote: »

True, I saw something recently that showed that October had shockingly low sales in regards to previous months this year. I’m staying patient with the slowdown in the market cause I have to buy too and cause i’m upgrading the new house hopefully will take longer to sell cause it’s in a higher price bracket than mine.

I'd think you might find it slow until February / March time next year.

This christmas period is a bit different too with the looming January 31st brexit date.

Graham

Does that figure represent all of the October sales or all of the October sales that have been registered so far?

missforgetfull

Mic 1972 wrote: »

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/


October has the lowest sales registered in years

Yes, it was this that I was looking at. Hopefully the trend doesn't continue. I’m dying to see what November will look like. I’m surprised at the contrast in sales between December and January. I was told yesterday that this side if Christmas is quiet and after the market picks up 🤔

Mic 1972

Graham wrote: »

Does that figure represent all of the October sales or all of the October sales that have been registered so far?

that's sales that were registered in October, anything that was registered after that will show in the November report

It takes a while before a sale is registered so what you see in October is the result of low sales from previous months

missforgetfull

awec wrote: »

I'd think you might find it slow until February / March time next year.

This christmas period is a bit different too with the looming January 31st brexit date.

Brexit I find is affecting the property market more than we expected. First with the Oct 31st and now 31st Jan. I’m hoping I don't have to wait that long! The problem is the house that we would like to buy is a bank sale and I believe the bank wont acknowledge the fact that house prices have dropped slightly.

Bluefoam

Mic 1972 wrote: »

that's sales that were registered in October, anything that was registered after that will show in the November report

It takes a while before a sale is registered so what you see in October is the result of low sales from previous months

That is not correct. The register shows houses where sales were closed in that month irrespective of when that sale was registered. it may take a couple of months to register the sale, but then it will be registered against the date the sale was closed/contracts completed.