Property Market 2019

snotboogie

Eric Cartman wrote: »

twitter, linkedin, indeed, wework, snapchat, uber, and a pile more do not make a profit, many of them are living on a loss and only make money through upping value and re-investment. its an infinite growth model that eventually has to run out of runway unless they can kick every other player out of the market which is a dangerous game to play.

Linkedin are owned by Microsoft who are printing money. The other companies mentioned are all minority employers with less employees combined than the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon and Apple have by themselves.

Amirani

Eric Cartman wrote: »

twitter, linkedin, indeed, wework, snapchat, uber, and a pile more do not make a profit, many of them are living on a loss and only make money through upping value and re-investment.

WeWork, Snapchat and Uber have feck all corporate presence in Ireland. Snapchat is London HQ and Uber is Amsterdam.

The original poster's point was correct; most of the large tech employers in Ireland are profit making and have been around a long time. Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, SAP, Oracle sorts are the big employers here.

Interested Observer

Eric Cartman wrote: »

twitter, linkedin, indeed, wework, snapchat, uber, and a pile more do not make a profit, many of them are living on a loss and only make money through upping value and re-investment. its an infinite growth model that eventually has to run out of runway unless they can kick every other player out of the market which is a dangerous game to play.

Linkedin and Indeed absolutely make profit, I'm not sure where you've gotten that from. And of those companies you've listed who are the major employers in Dublin... Yes that's right, LinkedIn and Indeed.

How many people do WeWork, Uber and Snap employ in Dublin between them?

AlmightyCushion

Eric Cartman wrote: »

twitter, linkedin, indeed, wework, snapchat, uber, and a pile more do not make a profit, many of them are living on a loss and only make money through upping value and re-investment. its an infinite growth model that eventually has to run out of runway unless they can kick every other player out of the market which is a dangerous game to play.

Twitter makes a profit as does Indeed. This time 2 years ago, Twitter only employed 175 people here. LinkedIn are owned by Microsoft. WeWork is losing money alright but probably employ fúck all here. There was an article a year ago saying how they had 1,000 people using their facilities in Dublin. Best case scenario they are only employing a fraction of that so couple of hundred at most. Snapchat don't even have an office here, they chose London instead. Uber only employ a few hundred.

Eric Cartman

Amirani wrote: »

WeWork, Snapchat and Uber have feck all corporate presence in Ireland. Snapchat is London HQ and Uber is Amsterdam.

The original poster's point was correct; most of the large tech employers in Ireland are profit making and have been around a long time. Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, SAP, Oracle sorts are the big employers here.

wework have about 6 buildings in south dublin that they rent out, they themselves have over 50 staff here, uber rent a lot of office space around fitzwilliam, forgot hubspot who have a lot of staff here, voxpro,

apple are in cork
microsoft are not in the city centre
sap are in citywest
oracle, google amazon facebook are all in the city centre but employ very few people, most of it is outsourced to other companies so theyre very light and mobile were any shift in the economy to happen.

its off topic but the non profit making divisions / companies who employ thousands in the city are massively at risk. Regardless of how much money their parent has. Even the established players have set themselves up that were the favourable tax rates to end or the economy tank that they could leave almost immediately.

Interested Observer

Eric Cartman wrote: »

wework have about 6 buildings in south dublin that they rent out, they themselves have over 50 staff here, uber rent a lot of office space around fitzwilliam, forgot hubspot who have a lot of staff here, voxpro,

apple are in cork
microsoft are not in the city centre
sap are in citywest
oracle, google amazon facebook are all in the city centre but employ very few people, most of it is outsourced to other companies so theyre very light and mobile were any shift in the economy to happen.

its off topic but the non profit making divisions / companies who employ thousands in the city are massively at risk. Regardless of how much money their parent has. Even the established players have set themselves up that were the favourable tax rates to end or the economy tank that they could leave almost immediately.

How can so much wrong fit into one post.

snotboogie

Eric Cartman wrote: »

wework have about 6 buildings in south dublin that they rent out, they themselves have over 50 staff here, uber rent a lot of office space around fitzwilliam, forgot hubspot who have a lot of staff here, voxpro,

apple are in cork
microsoft are not in the city centre
sap are in citywest
oracle, google amazon facebook are all in the city centre but employ very few people, most of it is outsourced to other companies so theyre very light and mobile were any shift in the economy to happen.

its off topic but the non profit making divisions / companies who employ thousands in the city are massively at risk. Regardless of how much money their parent has. Even the established players have set themselves up that were the favourable tax rates to end or the economy tank that they could leave almost immediately.

Voxpro are in Cork, Irish owned and make a profit

Mic 1972

SozBbz wrote: »

Any of us only need shelter for ourselves or any dependents. This is not about you or your needs/wants. The point is the definition of what constitutes a need versus a want.

Having what is essentially guest accommodation/optional extra revenue is not a need.

You wanted those things though, and you could afford them and no one is cricitizing you for that.

Why is the word need" so important to you? Why do you feel you have to justify your choice?

My point is in relation to 3beds being meant for families only
They are suitable for families yes, as well as for anybody who needs extra rooms

Mic 1972

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

No, asking price has literally no correlation to the price of turnips or the number of nil-nil draws in the premier league this season.



There is evidently a correlation between asking price and selling prices. Here's a list of asking prices for the past decade which we can see falling from a peak during the boom, bottoming out around 2012/2013, before rising steadily for a 5-6 year period, which we all know is the shape of the sale price of properties during this time period.

Not to be putting words into your mouth but I suspect that your real point is on how strong this correlation really is.

Thank you, that's exactly what i was trying to say i few pages ago ;-) the correlation is obvious and couldn't be otherwise

Woshy

Eric Cartman wrote: »

wework have about 6 buildings in south dublin that they rent out, they themselves have over 50 staff here, uber rent a lot of office space around fitzwilliam, forgot hubspot who have a lot of staff here, voxpro,

apple are in cork
microsoft are not in the city centre
sap are in citywest
oracle, google amazon facebook are all in the city centre but employ very few people, most of it is outsourced to other companies so theyre very light and mobile were any shift in the economy to happen.

its off topic but the non profit making divisions / companies who employ thousands in the city are massively at risk. Regardless of how much money their parent has. Even the established players have set themselves up that were the favourable tax rates to end or the economy tank that they could leave almost immediately.

Amazon have around 2000 staff in Dublin and they are planning on increasing this to 3000 over the next year or two. How is that employing very few people?

helimachoptor

snotboogie wrote: »

Voxpro are in Cork, Irish owned and make a profit

Voxpro are owned by a Canadian company, but lots of their contracts are with those big american tech companies. So the question would be if they left, would they keep their call centres here.

snotboogie

helimachoptor wrote: »

Voxpro are owned by a Canadian company, but lots of their contracts are with those big american tech companies. So the question would be if they left, would they keep their call centres here.

I have no idea if they would stay or leave. The point is that US multinationals in Ireland are not precarious because of unprofitable business models. Tax may be another issue but the idea that Dublin is about to burst because of over funded underprofitable tech is pie in the sky. Dublin or at least Ireland is home to most of the blue chip mature profitable Tech and Pharma companies out there. For better or worse volatile US startups are a blip on the employment radar here

Corruptedmorals

Sparky85 wrote: »

Do you know how many 3 beds were launched & sold in the first phase? There does seem to be money out there for new builds like this, in a location like this..... even at that price

I can tell you there's a little bit over 70 3 beds in the 1st phase, although I don't know what percentage were launched. Just under that amount again for 4 beds on the plans. There are mid-terrace 2 beds and some unexplained dots which may be apartments. Really tells a lot to have no 3 bed show house but they still sell so well.

JamesMason

Watch the first minute or so of future shock Ireland on YouTube and you might change your outlook

snotboogie wrote: »

I have no idea if they would stay or leave. The point is that US multinationals in Ireland are not precarious because of unprofitable business models. Tax may be another issue but the idea that Dublin is about to burst because of over funded underprofitable tech is pie in the sky. Dublin or at least Ireland is home to most of the blue chip mature profitable Tech and Pharma companies out there. For better or worse volatile US startups are a blip on the employment radar here

Eric Cartman

JamesMason wrote: »

Watch the first minute or so of future shock Ireland on YouTube and you might change your outlook

at 6:39 when he starts going on about price stagnation im just thinking ohh christ, here we go again....

16 minute mark , over 300k for a 1 bed apartment in a suburb, almost died.

snotboogie

JamesMason wrote: »

Watch the first minute or so of future shock Ireland on YouTube and you might change your outlook

I can't predict the future of multinationals in Ireland let alone the impact a shock to the sector would have on the property market here. All I am saying is that the idea that tech in Ireland is a bunch of unprofitable quasi start ups living off debt is bollocks.

Padre_Pio

snotboogie wrote: »

I can't predict the future of multinationals in Ireland let alone the impact a shock to the sector would have on the property market here. All I am saying is that the idea that tech in Ireland is a bunch of unprofitable quasi start ups living off debt is bollocks.

Also, the idea that ALL these multinationals are one day going to up sticks and leave is also bollocks.
Companies come and go, someday Intel might leave and it'll be sh*t, but those people will find jobs in whatever company takes its place.

HP closed, Dell closed and plenty like them, but there's always companies coming in here. Great tax breaks for R&D, the only English speaking country in the EU soon, low Corp tax, decent educated workforce, stable govt. We're doing very well for ourselves and have been for the better part of 30 years.

snotboogie

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Also, the idea that ALL these multinationals are one day going to up sticks and leave is also bollocks.
Companies come and go, someday Intel might leave and it'll be sh*t, but those people will find jobs in whatever company takes its place.

HP closed, Dell closed and plenty like them, but there's always companies coming in here. Great tax breaks for R&D, the only English speaking country in the EU soon, low Corp tax, decent educated workforce, stable govt. We're doing very well for ourselves and have been for the better part of 30 years.

Dell actually never closed, they have 1000+ in each of their three sites across Limerick, Cork and Dublin

dor843088

JamesMason wrote: »

Watch the first minute or so of future shock Ireland on YouTube and you might change your outlook

I watched this last night with the other half. It's like it was only aired yesterday. People complaining about affordability, price booms , no way prices can fall only stagnate for a while , demand is too high . Talk about Pfizer and the like pulling out , so called experts talking
out of their hole about how we'll have minimal price growth in future or a soft landing. Honestly it's like this programme was produced today . One thing that did strike me was a few economists who seemed to know their stuff said that every price boom ever in any country has been followed by a bust without exception.
But I think this time its different. :cool:

Wanderer78

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Also, the idea that ALL these multinationals are one day going to up sticks and leave is also bollocks.
Companies come and go, someday Intel might leave and it'll be sh*t, but those people will find jobs in whatever company takes its place.

HP closed, Dell closed and plenty like them, but there's always companies coming in here. Great tax breaks for R&D, the only English speaking country in the EU soon, low Corp tax, decent educated workforce, stable govt. We're doing very well for ourselves and have been for the better part of 30 years.

Our mnc tax avoidance schemes could be slowly coming to an end, other EU countries have had enough of it, and rightly so, so things are probably gonna get interesting there

Bigmac1euro

IMO I wouldn’t go near a new build.
We’ve seen this over the years.
We don’t actually know how they’ll pan out until 10 years down the road.
They never have a decent infrastructure in the local area.
And they are also overpriced by at least 100k to a 2nd hand house in close proximity then add interest charges over the years of servicing the mortgage and this makes them even more expensive again.
To top it off you’ve no back garden of decent size and if you do privacy is limited. You’ve no front garden in most.

They are spacious and better planned out internally though but I can’t see many other pluses.

For all the above reasons I won’t be going the new build route which I had originally planned but after some thinking and physically writing out the good and bad points it’s clear as day an older more established area would suit me better. Each to their own though. I must say the show houses are impressive.

Cyrus

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

IMO I wouldn’t go near a new build.
We’ve seen this over the years.
We don’t actually know how they’ll pan out until 10 years down the road.
They never have a decent infrastructure in the local area.
And they are also overpriced by at least 100k to a 2nd hand house in close proximity then add interest charges over the years of servicing the mortgage and this makes them even more expensive again.
To top it off you’ve no back garden of decent size and if you do privacy is limited. You’ve no front garden in most.

They are spacious and better planned out internally though but I can’t see many other pluses.

For all the above reasons I won’t be going the new build route which I had originally planned but after some thinking and physically writing out the good and bad points it’s clear as day an older more established area would suit me better. Each to their own though. I must say the show houses are impressive.

some pretty huge generalisations here.

all depends on the new build surely? we bought a new build in a small infill development in the middle of an established area. Our particular house also has as big a garden as i wanted (there are some of the gardens in the estate that are too small that said).

We looked for 9 or 10 months, never considered a new build until we walked into the one we bought and even though the purchase cost was higher it was working out cheaper than any of the fixer uppers we looked at once we factored in the frankly massive extension / renovation costs.

hmmm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housebuilding-in-dublin-stalls-amid-concern-over-affordability-1.4075676

Interesting. As some have predicted, builders will curtail building if prices start to fall and the market reaches a supply/demand balance.

While in my view this isn't a bad thing, as usual the media spin is that somehow this is the Central Banks fault by "constraining affordability". Combine this with the Independent banging on about "cuckoo funds" and I have to wonder just how much the media is again becoming dependent on property advertising.

Reversal

hmmm wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housebuilding-in-dublin-stalls-amid-concern-over-affordability-1.4075676

Interesting. As some have predicted, builders will curtail building if prices start to fall and the market reaches a supply/demand balance.

While in my view this isn't a bad thing, as usual the media spin is that somehow this is the Central Banks fault by "constraining affordability". Combine this with the Independent banging on about "cuckoo funds" and I have to wonder just how much the media is again becoming dependent on property advertising.

Interesting to note, it's not just the prospect of falling prices haulting construction. But there IS a build up unsold stock, and that's what's spooking the investors.

I can't understand how some are still adamant that this time IS different, and that demand is going to outstrip supply for years. Yet institutional investors are pulling back as the build up of unsold stock is worrying them.

Sheeps

Reversal wrote: »

Interesting to note, it's not just the prospect of falling prices haulting construction. But there IS a build up unsold stock, and that's what's spooking the investors.

I can't understand how some are still adamant that this time IS different, and that demand is going to outstrip supply for years. Yet institutional investors are pulling back as the build up of unsold stock is worrying them.

Goodbody are of the opinion that it's due to housing regulations, which if true would limit the reduction of completions mostly down to apartments. House completions should be fairly solid still, and I haven't noticed a reduction on property websites for houses in the outskirts.

bdmc5

Bigmac1euro wrote: »

IMO I wouldn’t go near a new build.
We’ve seen this over the years.
We don’t actually know how they’ll pan out until 10 years down the road.
They never have a decent infrastructure in the local area.
And they are also overpriced by at least 100k to a 2nd hand house in close proximity then add interest charges over the years of servicing the mortgage and this makes them even more expensive again.
To top it off you’ve no back garden of decent size and if you do privacy is limited. You’ve no front garden in most.

They are spacious and better planned out internally though but I can’t see many other pluses.

For all the above reasons I won’t be going the new build route which I had originally planned but after some thinking and physically writing out the good and bad points it’s clear as day an older more established area would suit me better. Each to their own though. I must say the show houses are impressive.

As someone who had the same dilemma as you, all i can say is keep an open mind as the reasons you state for dismissing new builts are sweeping generalisations or incorrect in many cases. As one of the posters mentioned above there a new builds and plenty of them in established areas with great infrastructure and services.



There are certainly no 2nd home 100k cheaper than new builds in Cork where i bought unless there are serious compromises to roofing issues, insulation, plumbing or layout etc. Theres perhaps 40k to 50k in the difference but taking off the FTB grant and the cost involved in bringing the 2nd hand house to any semblance of spec to a new build and new builts worked out the same if not 20-30k cheaper where we looked in Blackrock.



Theres no doubt there are compromises in garden size Vs 2nd hand home but for us it was all about the interior. A more spacious home to your spec rather than have to work around other peoples tastes. I get alot of satisfaction in knowing my wife and i and small baby are the first to make memories in our house built for us. Just my 2 cents:)

19233974

Lots of interesting views in the thread. So whats peoples predictions for the housing market in 2020?

I think we will have a stagnation with the continued brexit uncertainty esp. if the election dosent go the tories way as well as investor/ buyers losing confidence in how things will play out.

i cant see a crash coming simply just due to the increasing population and overall demand on housing, with supply not really going to increase to meet it. Although i do take the point that going by the traditional boom/bust cycle that is pretty certain in any economy we are probably due one.

Sparky85

19233974 wrote: »

Lots of interesting views in the thread. So whats peoples predictions for the housing market in 2020?

I think we will have a stagnation with the continued brexit uncertainty esp. if the election dosent go the tories way as well as investor/ buyers losing confidence in how things will play out.

i cant see a crash coming simply just due to the increasing population and overall demand on housing, with supply not really going to increase to meet it. Although i do take the point that going by the traditional boom/bust cycle that is pretty certain in any economy we are probably due one.

All 4 bed detached houses in the first launch of this new development for €585k AND 3 bed semis for €385k reserved on day 1..... this says a lot about the market for new builds..... second hand market is a different animal


https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/491841/selling-starts-on-first-phase-of-new-kildare-housing-development-at-wonderful-barn.html

Bluefoam

19233974 wrote: »

Lots of interesting views in the thread. So whats peoples predictions for the housing market in 2020?

I think we will have a stagnation with the continued brexit uncertainty esp. if the election dosent go the tories way as well as investor/ buyers losing confidence in how things will play out.

i cant see a crash coming simply just due to the increasing population and overall demand on housing, with supply not really going to increase to meet it. Although i do take the point that going by the traditional boom/bust cycle that is pretty certain in any economy we are probably due one.

I think it will continue to go slow until 6 months sfter the brexit conclusion... irrelevnat of the way that goes, there will be a surge in demand... people will decide to take control of their lives again without worrying about what opur neghbours are doing to **** up our economy. There will be economic pressures, but the nature of brexit will allow people to be prepared & it can be managed better.

I also think that the central bank may amend the borrowing rules to encourage the market a bit prior to the brexit conclusion.

*just my superficial thoughts

Cuddlesworth

19233974 wrote: »

Lots of interesting views in the thread. So whats peoples predictions for the housing market in 2020?

House prices stalling in certain top end markets.
Large scale developments scaling back rapidly.
Housing in general scaling past affordability.
Lots of talk of impending global recession.

I don't remember much from 2006 but those seem familiar. I'm optimist in me is hoping the measures the CBI created stagnate the market and keep it in line with inflation. Houses might be overpriced for a lot of people, but at least they are overpriced without a 10% year on year jump. But the pessimist in me thinks once consumer confidence drops, banks will run, cash buyers will run and the market will tank again.

At this point, I think Cherrywood is going to be a wasteland for 50 years and the death knell of many developers.