Beast from the east?

ninjarambohd

Hey all. So having lived in this beautiful country for the past 18 years I never really experienced mild winters like we are kind of experiencing now. Last year it was kind of the same and then in March we got hit with a lot of snow. Now me having emigrated from a country which snowed a lot in winter I must say I am really fond of snow so do you all think we may get snow again this year?

engiweirdo

No. In all likelihood. This type of winter is far more normal here. Will probably get a bit colder for ya in January/February bit snow, at least real snow is rare enough.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

Nobody has the slightest clue about that at this stage.


If I had to guess I'd say there days of light snow showers starting 27th or 28th January.

antodeco

February 2nd at 4pm in a very specific part of the country. More details will follow

Marley and Marley

It seems to me that 20 years ago November was much colder and February was much milder.In school we were always thought that November,December and January were winter and February was when Spring started.

Last few years November has been fairly mild but February and March have felt colder.

November was defiently winter weather when I was growing up and February was spring weather whereas it feels the last few years that November is more like Autumn weather and February/March has more wintry weather.

My auld fella could, and has, gone on about the big snow of 1947 until the cows come home. Meanwhile, I'm old enough to remember the big snow of 1982, and himself arriving into Dublin airport and ringing home to say he was bringing a couple of people who were stranded there home and to have beds ready. I also remember the local fire station ringing around asking us and others could we put up people whose buses couldn't travel any further. Great excitement in the early days. And hilarious photos of us all in bit woolly hats falling over our faces (hand-me-downs ruled the 80s!), duffel coats and the like. My mother sent myself and my siblings around to elderly neighbours to see if they had enough milk, etc, while the snow drifts were absolutely massive - about 3 times my height in many places. With non-stop cold and very few supplies, we kids were absolutely sick of it all after a while. 'Ní bheidh a leithéid arís ann', as Tomás Ó Criomhthain might have put it.

All you whippersnappers haven't seen real snow yet.

Pictures of the Big Snow of 1982

Sonics2k

The snow from this year was a massive exception. In all my life living in Ireland I honestly can't remember a time it snowed that much, especially not here in Cork where it's too warm.

Bunch of people in my office are 'predicting' blizzards just like it for 2019 even though it's extremely unlikely.

antodeco

Sonics2k wrote: »

The snow from this year was a massive exception. In all my life living in Ireland I honestly can't remember a time it snowed that much, especially not here in Cork where it's too warm.

Bunch of people in my office are 'predicting' blizzards just like it for 2019 even though it's extremely unlikely.

2010/2011 if I remember correctly? Certainly in Dublin it was fairly heavy!

Dalomanakora

antodeco wrote: »

2010/2011 if I remember correctly? Certainly in Dublin it was fairly heavy!

I remember that! Working in town, living out near Clare hall. No buses running by the time I finished work so muggins here got to feckin walk home at 10pm :pac:

ActingDanClark

antodeco wrote: »

February 2nd at 4pm in a very specific part of the country. More details will follow

Uhoh!!! I live in a very specific part of the country😦

Swampy

antodeco wrote: »

2010/2011 if I remember correctly? Certainly in Dublin it was fairly heavy!

And it got cold, very cold. Roads were lethal.

Deebles McBeebles

3 big snow storms in the last 40 years from my memory. Your chances aren't good going by those numbers, OP but take solstice in the fact that the weather is f*cked and it could basically snow at any time now.

Pherekydes

ninjarambohd wrote: »

Now me having emigrated from a country which snowed a lot in winter I must say I am really fond of snow so do you all think we may get snow again this year?

Highly unlikely. The forecast for the next 4 days is fairly mild.

Deebles McBeebles

Deebles McBeebles wrote: »

3 big snow storms in the last 40 years from my memory. Your chances aren't good going by those numbers, OP but take solstice in the fact that the weather is f*cked and it could basically snow at any time now.

Ahem :eek:.

i love the snow for a while but the reality of dealing with it is so annoying

Day Lewin

In Ireland, we get a snowy winter about once a decade.

Likewise, a hot summer, about once a decade.

Rest of the time, it's just endless variations on mild-to-cool.

You may quote me on this :-)

Deebles McBeebles

Deleted User wrote: »

Ahem :eek:.

Yes, I mixed up 2 words. I'm sure you can guess what I meant.

Sonics2k

antodeco wrote: »

2010/2011 if I remember correctly? Certainly in Dublin it was fairly heavy!

Bloody Dubs, taking all the snow away from us!

Nah but Cork is too coastal, something to do with the warm waters coming up from Mexico if I vaguely remember my Geography classes.

I'd bloody well love it to snow like that again this year, but I doubt it will/can happen.

Defaulter1831

ninjarambohd wrote: »

Hey all. So having lived in this beautiful country for the past 18 years I never really experienced mild winters like we are kind of experiencing now. Last year it was kind of the same and then in March we got hit with a lot of snow. Now me having emigrated from a country which snowed a lot in winter I must say I am really fond of snow so do you all think we may get snow again this year?

You'd be best advised to go to the Weather forum.

The FI (fantasy island) thread looks at weather forecasts beyond 5 days. Also some attempt LRFs, long range forecasts.

A strat warming is due to take place within a week. This could lead to colder, snowy weather in 3 weeks time.

Defaulter1831

Marley and Marley wrote: »

It seems to me that 20 years ago November was much colder and February was much milder.In school we were always thought that November,December and January were winter and February was when Spring started.

Last few years November has been fairly mild but February and March have felt colder.

November was defiently winter weather when I was growing up and February was spring weather whereas it feels the last few years that November is more like Autumn weather and February/March has more wintry weather.

No. Meteorological winter has always been Dec, Jan, Feb. Feb is colder than November over 95% of the time.

Summer is June, July, August etc. Again August is almost always warmer than May.

Defaulter1831

Sonics2k wrote: »

Bloody Dubs, taking all the snow away from us!

Nah but Cork is too coastal, something to do with the warm waters coming up from Mexico if I vaguely remember my Geography classes.

I'd bloody well love it to snow like that again this year, but I doubt it will/can happen.

No. Under the correct synoptics Cork can have snow. 12-13 Jan 1987. The max temp on the 12th was -7C, heavy snowfall with a bitter easterly.

Gimme A Pound

It was severe for Ireland in both late 2010 and last March. 2010 was worse because it lasted much longer. Late 2009/early 2010 saw some heavy enough snow too.

There is often a bit of snow here, but just a bit. The last time there was an event comparable with March 2018 or late 2010 was late 1981/early 1982.

Gimme A Pound

Sonics2k wrote: »

Bloody Dubs, taking all the snow away from us!

Nah but Cork is too coastal, something to do with the warm waters coming up from Mexico if I vaguely remember my Geography classes.

I'd bloody well love it to snow like that again this year, but I doubt it will/can happen.

I thought it was still pretty darn severe here in Cork last March and late 2010.

Defaulter1831

Pherekydes wrote: »

Highly unlikely. The forecast for the next 4 days is fairly mild.

I wouldn't say highly. Unlikely. We'll have mild weather until the end of the year. So only one out of 3 winter mts gone.

We have an SSW about to take place.

Also it depends on where you're talking about. I live at an altitude of 1,100 ft and we're 3C cooler because of this altitude and get snow every year. Once as late as mid May 1993. Lying snow.

Graces7

antodeco wrote: »

2010/2011 if I remember correctly? Certainly in Dublin it was fairly heavy!

I was up in the Bluestacks in Donegal that time. Snowed in for six weeks. But for a kind boardsie with a 4 wheel drive and a heart of gold.... ran out of gas and fuel and food was low. Finally drove down o n 3 inches of ice and made it but getting back up was a different matter... kept having to be pushed and finally the neighbours who had refused to fetch me fuel had to turn out to get me home..

"Ah yes I remember it well!"

Sonics2k

Dane Unsightly Vehicle wrote: »

I thought it was still pretty darn severe here in Cork last March and late 2010.

That's what I'm saying. The snow in Cork in Feb/March was a massive exception to the the norm that we'd see possible here.

2010 was light snow that barely lasted a day. Roads were a bit icy and that was it mostly.

EdgeCase

Snow in Ireland is exceptional, especially in the populated areas which are on the coasts or near the coasts.

It's an island in the Atlantic and has very little continental predictability when it comes to weather patterns. The systems here are basically oceanic - mild, wet, moderately windy but with very little stability or predictability beyond a normal forecast.

We have seasonality but it's not very clear compared to the distinct season changes you get on larger continental landmasses.

Any very hot of very cold weather events here are caused by unusual airflow patterns bringing a continental weather system far further off shore than normal. They can happen but you can't really forecast them beyond a few weeks at best.

That's probably why we spend so much time talking about the weather - prediction is much more challenging.

Gimme A Pound

Sonics2k wrote: »

2010 was light snow that barely lasted a day. Roads were a bit icy and that was it mostly.

The snow in late 2010 lasted several days and the roads were not just a bit icy. It was treacherous. It started in early December, then thawed, then came back about 10 days before Christmas, and thawed very quickly - overnight Christmas day and into St Stephen's Day.

You know it didn't just barely last a day.

Marley and Marley

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

No. Meteorological winter has always been Dec, Jan, Feb. Feb is colder than November over 95% of the time.

Summer is June, July, August etc. Again August is almost always warmer than May.

In school we were taught that Winter was November,December and January and Summer was May,June and July.

Defaulter1831

Marley and Marley wrote: »

In school we were taught that Winter was November,December and January and Summer was May,June and July.

Yes I was too. But they were wrong

It's only in recent years the curriculum has been changed to the proper definition.

We all got the St. Bridget's day start of Spring etc. I remember a Dutch girl in college laughing at the concept of the seasons in Ireland.

igCorcaigh

Marley and Marley wrote: »

It seems to me that 20 years ago November was much colder and February was much milder.In school we were always thought that November,December and January were winter and February was when Spring started.

Last few years November has been fairly mild but February and March have felt colder.

November was defiently winter weather when I was growing up and February was spring weather whereas it feels the last few years that November is more like Autumn weather and February/March has more wintry weather.

Yes, very much this. Was just talking to my mum about this on Christmas day. The seasons have seemed to move forward.

igCorcaigh

Sonics2k wrote: »

That's what I'm saying. The snow in Cork in Feb/March was a massive exception to the the norm that we'd see possible here.

2010 was light snow that barely lasted a day. Roads were a bit icy and that was it mostly.

Yeah, down here the 2010 snow was a day event. I remember the weeks of freezing weather running up to Christmas 2009 though!

Franz Von Peppercorn

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

Yes I was too. But they were wrong

It's only in recent years the curriculum has been changed to the proper definition.

We all got the St. Bridget's day start of Spring etc. I remember a Dutch girl in college laughing at the concept of the seasons in Ireland.

Every country is different. The Celtic winter was historically the darkest, not the coldest part of the year. In fact plenty of cultures had that - look at how mid winter or mid summer is celebrated across Europe.

EdgeCase

OP basically if you want reliable snow for winter sports or even just looking at, you need to be booking winter holidays in a country with reliable snow.

That's why going abroad for ski holidays is so popular.

OldMrBrennan83

In 2010 I got marooned in my house in Tyrone for the duration of Christmas. No water, no heating, couldn't even use the jacks as the water in it was solid. Crashed the car making one last attempt to get out on Christmas eve and had to abandon it. That was more low temps than actual snow though. 1982 was the last proper snow.

antodeco

Patww79 wrote: »

In 2010 I got marooned in my house in Tyrone for the duration of Christmas. No water, no heating, couldn't even use the jacks as the water in it was solid. Crashed the car making one last attempt to get out on Christmas eve and had to abandon it.

That not just a normal day in Tyrone? :pac:

Defaulter1831

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Every country is different. The Celtic winter was historically the darkest, not the coldest part of the year. In fact plenty of cultures had that - look at how mid winter or mid summer is celebrated across Europe.

True enough. I'm looking at it meteorologically though. A system in place hundreds of years. Yes daylight is one way. Astronomical winter is 23 Dec to 23 Mar. It really corresponds with temperature.

Gimme A Pound

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Yeah, down here the 2010 snow was a day event. I remember the weeks of freezing weather running up to Christmas 2009 though!

The snow in late 2010 was very much not a one-day event in Cork. Just look it up.

kenmc

ninjarambohd wrote: »

Hey all. So having lived in this beautiful country for the past 18 years I never really experienced mild winters like we are kind of experiencing now. Last year it was kind of the same and then in March we got hit with a lot of snow. Now me having emigrated from a country which snowed a lot in winter I must say I am really fond of snow so do you all think we may get snow again this year?

Fingers crossed. Soooo much better than the dreary wet windy -sorry stormy- crap we've had since Halloween.

igCorcaigh

Dane Unsightly Vehicle wrote: »

The snow in late 2010 was very much not a one-day event in Cork. Just look it up.

Really? I'm just going by memory. This was in city centre anyway.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

True enough. I'm looking at it meteorologically though. A system in place hundreds of years. Yes daylight is one way. Astronomical winter is 23 Dec to 23 Mar. It really corresponds with temperature.

Not really hundreds of years. As I said mid winter festivals in Europe tend to be about now and mid summer festivals around the 21st June.

meteorological seasons are probably from the scientific era. It makes sense if you are talking about weather. That said, although February is colder here than November there isn’t much in it.

Btw many cold countries date winter from the first snow.

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/seasons-in-finland

OneOfThem Stumbled

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

Yes I was too. But they were wrong

It's only in recent years the curriculum has been changed to the proper definition.

We all got the St. Bridget's day start of Spring etc. I remember a Dutch girl in college laughing at the concept of the seasons in Ireland.

The average temperature the last 4 Marches was 5.9 degrees Celsius.
The average temperature the last 4 Decembers was 7 degrees Celsius.

By that logic December should be Autumn and March should be winter.

Temperature can vary a lot, from year to year. Something that is a *lot* more constant is length of day. Having the shortest day in the middle of winter, and longest day in middle of summer makes way more sense than near the beginning of both.

I mean are daffodils really a winter flower? Really?

Defaulter1831

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Not really hundreds of years. As I said mid winter festivals in Europe tend to be about now and mid summer festivals around the 21st June.

meteorological seasons are probably from the scientific era. It makes sense if you are talking about weather. That said, although February is colder here than November there isn’t much in it.

Btw many cold countries date winter from the first snow.

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/seasons-in-finland

Hundreds of years if you look at the CET (Central England Temperature) it goes back to the founding of the Royal Scientific Society in 1659. Winter has been calculated as the average of Dec, Jan and Feb. Spring Mar, April, May. We were under British rule so yes 100s of years.

There's a huge difference between November and February. I'll get some data..

Defaulter1831

OneOfThem Stumbled wrote: »

The average temperature the last 4 Marches was 5.9 degrees Celsius.
The average temperature the last 4 Decembers was 7 degrees Celsius.

By that logic December should be Autumn and March should be winter.

Temperature can vary a lot, from year to year. Something that is a *lot* more constant is length of day. Having the shortest day in the middle of winter, and longest day in middle of summer makes way more sense than near the beginning of both.

I mean are daffodils really a winter flower? Really?

You've just made my point about Astronomical Winter 23rd December until 23rd March. The first 3 weeks of March are more likely to be colder than the first 3 weeks of December. Same with the first 3 weeks of September being more likely to be warmer than the first 3 weeks of June.

Defaulter1831

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Not really hundreds of years. As I said mid winter festivals in Europe tend to be about now and mid summer festivals around the 21st June.

meteorological seasons are probably from the scientific era. It makes sense if you are talking about weather. That said, although February is colder here than November there isn’t much in it.

Btw many cold countries date winter from the first snow.

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/seasons-in-finland

Average February temp at Dublin airport 5.3C. Average November temperature 7.3C. 2C is MASSIVE. And March average is 6.7C, 0.6C colder than November, that's a huge difference.

Lads some here are just arguing for the sake of it. If you went onto the Meteorological fora with some of these arguments you'd be laughed out of it.

Defaulter1831

It's very difficult to consider November winter when it can only deliver nationwide snow once a generation in the last week of the month like November 2010. The synoptics have to be perfect. February on the other hand has been delivering memorable winter months throughout history, recent and further back. Off the top of my head 1991, 1986, 1963, 1947, 1933, 1917.

cnocbui

There is a well established lag between solar radiance and the weather one might expect to result from it, due to the thermal inertia of the planet, particularly oceans. It's called the hysteresis effect. So the coldest and hottest weather in a year can usually be expected to lag the winter and summer solstices by a month or two.

Defaulter1831

OneOfThem Stumbled wrote: »

The average temperature the last 4 Marches was 5.9 degrees Celsius.
The average temperature the last 4 Decembers was 7 degrees Celsius.

By that logic December should be Autumn and March should be winter.

Temperature can vary a lot, from year to year. Something that is a *lot* more constant is length of day. Having the shortest day in the middle of winter, and longest day in middle of summer makes way more sense than near the beginning of both.

I mean are daffodils really a winter flower? Really?

Flowers is a very bizarre way of counting seasons. Some years there are no frosts before Christmas. Nastertiums survive. Are Nastertiums a winter flower? Really?

Fact is in the Northern Hemisphere the seasons are generally defined as:

Winter: December, January, February
Spring: March, April, May
Summer: June, July and August
Autumn: September, October, November

Franz Von Peppercorn

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

Average February temp at Dublin airport 5.3C. Average November temperature 7.3C. 2C is MASSIVE. And March average is 6.7C, 0.6C colder than November, that's a huge difference.

Lads some here are just arguing for the sake of it. If you went onto the Meteorological fora with some of these arguments you'd be laughed out of it.

I often post there.

Coldness is just one way to measure winter. Length of day is another. Since Ireland doesn’t get that cold,and each month is so variable, and the strength of the sun in March is much more than November I’m inclined to informally go with the old Celtic rules while accepting the meteorologist view in their domain.

One thing I do know - September can feel like late summer and there’s many a time I’ve continued my summer routines in September. November is nearly as dark as December, and while not cold - invariably miserable.

Graces7

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

Flowers is a very bizarre way of counting seasons. Some years there are no frosts before Christmas. Nastertiums survive. Are Nastertiums a winter flower? Really?

Fact is in the Northern Hemisphere the seasons are generally defined as:

Winter: December, January, February
Spring: March, April, May
Summer: June, July and August
Autumn: September, October, November

well said. I have a few fine marigolds showing full bright orange, Flowers respond to weather. Some years that goes badly wrong when fruit blossom emerges early in very mild weather before the pollinators are out. so no fruit is set and the crop lost. We are truly at the mercy of the vagaries and mercy of the weather

daffodils are a late winter flower and will cope with snow and frost .. take you rpick!

https://www.google.com/search?q=daffodils+snow&rlz=1C1GCEA_enIE809IE809&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiM7fXFqsDfAhXGURUIHf-8B_AQ_AUIDigB&biw=1152&bih=606

sorry; falling asleep and canno tfix that!

Defaulter1831

Graces7 wrote: »

well said. I have a few fine marigolds showing full bright orange, Flowers respond to weather. Some years that goes badly wrong when fruit blossom emerges early in very mild weather before the pollinators are out. so no fruit is set and the crop lost. We are truly at the mercy of the vagaries and mercy of the weather

daffodils are a late winter flower and will cope with snow and frost .. take you rpick!

https://www.google.com/search?q=daffodils+snow&rlz=1C1GCEA_enIE809IE809&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiM7fXFqsDfAhXGURUIHf-8B_AQ_AUIDigB&biw=1152&bih=606

sorry; falling asleep and canno tfix that!

Agreed Grace. Happy New Year and hope it's a safe one for you without extremes that effect you, particularly wind.