Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

EdgeCase

The more dramatic impact today was rain rather than wind and I think given the flooding in some areas the warning was definitely warranted.

They're very dynamic systems in the Atlantic and it was very possible that there could have been much higher winds in areas of the south of the country.

The over hyping often isn't anything to do with Met Eireann, rather it's certain commentators and tabloids over dramatically interpreting things. All of a sudden a measured weather forecast and alerts ends up as Armageddon.

derossi

Was a weird storm, took the dog out for a walk around 7 ish thinking it grand, after that it kicked off. Was very quick that it took hold. Loads of branches down around the house. Thanks to all that saw this. Hope all survivied it. Not as bad as it was forecasted but still rough enough. I still heeded the warnings and stayed indoors. Now to fix that big tree that fell in the garden, might be free wood but I kept the dog in all night. Glad I did!

Graces7

Lovely to wake after a little sleep earlier to see a half moon smiling serene above the cowsheds.

Then sweet silence and more sleep.

Rest after rumpus!

No harm ever came of taking care. A lot of harm comes from not taking care.

So now our fair earth will soak up the excess water against summer needs. And more this week...

Happy Sunday..

Chris_5339762

What I found fascinating about this storm was the two wind features in Cork. A direct southerly, that the models I feel underplayed, then an hour of utterly eerie calm before the second lot of much stronger westerly winds came in; which were further out at sea than expected so not too bad but still quite strong.

I was watching the whole thing, and I felt safe enough to help my 72 year old father up the ladder onto the roof in the hour gap to secure a rope to a wind turbine that had broken. Boards told me roughly where the sudden ramp up in winds were as any time (Tralee, Cork etc) so I felt completely safe doing this. (And before anyone asks he would not let me go up on my own, he had to come too).

We then went up to the loft and within 5 minutes of being up there it whipped up a mad one, but only because I was watching the models and boards carefully, I knew roughly when it was all going to happen. These little intricacies most people wouldn't understand or care about, hence throw up a warning colour and adjust as necessary.

Rebelbrowser

Biblical rain now in Cork city. I thought today was supposed to be the dry day!

Chris_5339762

Yeah me too. Haven't seen the sun in nearly a week here, going mad. Seems to be endless dross. At least in 2013 (I think) with several storms there was a sunny day inbetween them, but these are all secondary lows which don't seem to do that. Its really awful.

gozunda

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Biblical rain now in Cork city. I thought today was supposed to be the dry day!

This. Now pelting it down North Cork Limerick border .... :mad:

sryanbruen

This table is getting too long :P but Storm Deirdre has been added with gusts from synop reports.

secman

Heavy rain now and very dark inland from Cahore Wexford. As windless as you can get too, rain totally vertical.

DOCARCH

Max gust yesterday at DunLaoghaire Harbour was 121km/h (65.4kt).

Chris_5339762

That chart is always great to see. Any chance Kinsale Energy could be added to it? That always generates ridiculous gusts and would be a useful extra to have, even though we can't take it seriously from a landfall point of view.

MJohnston

sryanbruen wrote: »

This table is getting too long :P but Storm Deirdre has been added with gusts from synop reports.

Selfishly I'd love it if you could colour code the numbers by the MÉ warning category that they fit into!

weisses

sryanbruen wrote: »

This table is getting too long :P but Storm Deirdre has been added with gusts from synop reports.

Just shows what a beast Darwin was... Will never forget that day

sryanbruen

MJohnston wrote: »

Selfishly I'd love it if you could colour code the numbers by the MÉ warning category that they fit into!

See edited post, I colour coded the cells rather than the numbers because it was hard to see the text coloured yellow.

Sycamore Tree

sryanbruen wrote: »

This table is getting too long :P but Storm Deirdre has been added with gusts from synop reports.

Brilliant table Sryanbruen!

sdanseo

Interesting that Deirdre was the only storm where the appropriate warning wind speed wasn't reached at any official station.

Not a criticism of MÉ. The warned based on the guidance. And of course only four counties ended up under orange warning, one of which has no synoptic station (Waterford) and Cork reached gusts 2km/h off the threshold in two places.

But maybe an indication of the storm being so dynamic and something they could feed into future decisions in similar scenarios?

m17

Claremorris co mayo 15/12/18

EmptyTree

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Can only imagine what it would be like to be at sea and see something like this coming towards you

sumtings

Clearly storms are getting weaker and it's better to live in a place with a name starting with a letter nearer the start of the alphabet than the end.

JCX BXC

sumtings wrote: »

Clearly storms are getting weaker and it's better to live in a place with a name starting with a letter nearer the start of the alphabet than the end.

Why would you compare the 2 largest storms of the last decade to the storms of 2018? That doesn't prove anything!

Like getting a picture of a massive car and a tiny airplane and saying "clearly cars are bigger than airplanes".

sumtings

JCX BXC wrote: »

Why would you compare the 2 largest storms of the last decade to the storms of 2018? That doesn't prove anything!

Like getting a picture of a massive car and a tiny airplane and saying "clearly cars are bigger than airplanes".

I agree with you, why would I have brought the alphabet into it!

sryanbruen

Nice analysis there sumtings, honestly prefer yours over mine. The problem with such a claim as windstorms are getting weaker is the small sample space you have. You would need to look back at a lot more years.

If you'd like any data of previous storms, years or stations, let me know and I'll be able to reanalyse it and send it to you.

sumtings

sryanbruen wrote: »

Nice analysis there sumtings, honestly prefer yours over mine. The problem with such a claim as windstorms are getting weaker is the small sample space you have. You would need to look back at a lot more years.

If you'd like any data of previous storms, years or stations, let me know and I'll be able to reanalyse it and send it to you.

Thanks syranbruen, though it was a joke piece of analysis!

Chris_5339762

sumtings wrote: »

Thanks syranbruen, though it was a joke piece of analysis!

You could also argue that the town called "Max" is the worst place to live :eek:

Reati

EmptyTree wrote: »

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Can only imagine what it would be like to be at sea and see something like this coming towards you

After a few of them it's not so bad. You can watch videos of it online. You generally hope it'll hit at night and you can sleep through it. Otherwise it's baked potato for meals time!

The Late Late Show

sumtings wrote: »

Clearly storms are getting weaker and it's better to live in a place with a name starting with a letter nearer the start of the alphabet than the end.

Ophelia and Darwin were by far the worst 2 of these. Also a Christmas Eve 1997 one and St Stephen's Day 1998 one were also up there to complete the 4 worst storms of the last 25 years or so.

sumtings

sryanbruen wrote: »

Nice analysis there sumtings, honestly prefer yours over mine. The problem with such a claim as windstorms are getting weaker is the small sample space you have. You would need to look back at a lot more years.

If you'd like any data of previous storms, years or stations, let me know and I'll be able to reanalyse it and send it to you.

Hi Syranbreun,

you know what would be interesting to see, in your data it looks like Mullingar is the most benign place to live from the point of view of storms/wind speed, I wonder if more data points backs that up.

sryanbruen

sumtings wrote: »

Thanks syranbruen, though it was a joke piece of analysis!

Well for a joke analysis, certainly looks more professional than my amateurish work.

sumtings wrote: »

Hi Syranbreun,

you know what would be interesting to see, in your data it looks like Mullingar is the most benign place to live from the point of view of storms/wind speed, I wonder if more data points backs that up.

I'll see what I can do. I think we can look at this from two different points of view. We can compare past major windstorms i.e. the worst of the lot, like January 1976, February 1988, January 1991, December 1997, December 1998 etc and see the max gusts of Mullingar in each of these storms with other Irish stations although might need some help in deciding these storms as I could miss some. We could also compare 1981-2010 averages (and maybe 1961-90 too if I can).

I think part of the reason why Mullingar seems so benign in terms of maximum wind gusts is due to how far inland the station is and away from exposed coasts.

sumtings

sryanbruen wrote: »

Well for a joke analysis, certainly looks more professional than my amateurish work.



I'll see what I can do. I think we can look at this from two different points of view. We can compare past major windstorms i.e. the worst of the lot, like January 1976, February 1988, January 1991, December 1997, December 1998 etc and see the max gusts of Mullingar in each of these storms with other Irish stations although might need some help in deciding these storms as I could miss some. We could also compare 1981-2010 averages (and maybe 1961-90 too if I can).

I think part of the reason why Mullingar seems so benign in terms of maximum wind gusts is due to how far inland the station is and away from exposed coasts.

The logic would make sense for it to be the least affected location wise.

The decider to include the storm in the data set could be if there are at least 3 stations greater than 90kph or at least one greater than 100kph for gusts?

For general weather averages for wind speed, the 1981 to 2010 averages would be fine I's say.

Comparing the two would be interesting.


Or maybe it could be if conditions at X stations met the criteria for yellow/orange?

goat2

This storm seems to be more robust and distructive than storm Deirdre,
I did not bother taking out the torch the night of storm Deirdre,
but tonight I have got in pocket to be ready for black out