Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

gozunda

From Met Éireann - issued today at 10.00 am


Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland

Potential for severe weather on Saturday 15th December. Hazardous conditions may result from heavy rain, and possibly wind also.

Issued: Thursday 13 December 2018 10:00

Updated: Thursday 13 December 2018 10:00

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 00:01 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

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Update :















Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland
A developing depression (Storm Deirdre) will track northeast over Ireland during Saturday afternoon and evening and will bring wet and windy weather to all areas.
West or northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65km/h with gusts of 100km/h generally, with disruptive and damaging gusts to 130km/h likely for a few hours in western and southern counties in the late afternoon and transferring eastwards during the evening.

Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00

Updated: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 15:00 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

Pops_20

Met Eireann mention the potential for severe weather on Saturday, but don't mention the wind speeds and rainfall amounts as they usually do.

Is this just an advance warning for the possibility of an Orange or Red warning scenario?

Widdensushi

I can't see much for warnings on Saturday, I hope that I am right.

sryanbruen

Pops_20 wrote: »

Met Eireann mention the potential for severe weather on Saturday, but don't mention the wind speeds and rainfall amounts as they usually do.

Is this just an advance warning for the possibility of an Orange or Red warning scenario?

It’s an advisory, not a warning. Warnings will be issued when time comes closer and or certainty grows.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: I changed thread title as there is no indication of any storm (just yet), just potential for a very wet and windy day.

kerrycork13

It was pretty severe wind and rain wise last night in parts of the south and there was very little about it.

shmaupel

kerrycork13 wrote: »

It was pretty severe wind and rain wise last night in parts of the south and there was very little about it.

Similar here in south Donegal. Wind dnc rain woke me up 3 times last night and plenty of branches on the lane this morning.

Larbre34

kerrycork13 wrote: »

It was pretty severe wind and rain wise last night in parts of the south and there was very little about it.

Met É issued yellow advisories for both wind and rain covering, Kerry, Cork, Waterford and Wexford for this period.

munsterlegend

The Met models must be showing an awful lot of rain to issue a warning this far in advance. Of course being a very busy shopping day Saturday could be another reason.

kerrycork13

Larbre34 wrote: »

Met É issued yellow advisories for both wind and rain covering, Kerry, Cork, Waterford and Wexford for this period.

Ya I’m aware of that but i though it merited an orange warning level for both wind and rain. River black water burst it’s banks and the power went out and the sustained wind along with the gusts well inland were unreal. Lots of flooding in plenty areas across south Munster today. Anyways just an opinion

mickger844posts

ECM 12z showing little impact from Wind more of a rain event. Of course all depends on the track and how much the low deepens.

munsterlegend

mickger844posts wrote: »

ECM 12z showing little impact from Wind more of a rain event. Of course all depends on the track and how much the low deepens.

Yep seems to be a lot of rain on the Hirlam model. Not too often you see the red/dark red for a prolonged period.

https://www.dmi.dk/vejr/til-lands/vejrkort/

Reckless Abandonment

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yep seems to be a lot of rain on the Hirlam model. Not too often you see the red/dark red for a prolonged period.

https://www.dmi.dk/vejr/til-lands/vejrkort/

Could you imagine if that was snow..
some mountain is going to be a meter or so higher by Sunday

Larbre34

kerrycork13 wrote: »

Ya I’m aware of that but i though it merited an orange warning level for both wind and rain. River black water burst it’s banks and the power went out and the sustained wind along with the gusts well inland were unreal. Lots of flooding in plenty areas across south Munster today. Anyways just an opinion

Fair enough, I wasn't aware there had been some damage.

sdanseo

The worst part of the HIRLAM 12Z is what happens the precipitation as soon as it crosses the Irish Sea...

JanuarySnowstor

They've really gone over the top here. The wind aspect is very doubtful and the rain while heavy is nothing more than a yellow. The pubs and shops won't be too happy if it's a non event

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

They've really gone over the top here. The wind aspect is very doubtful and the rain while heavy is nothing more than a yellow. The pubs and shops won't be too happy if it's a non event

Given it is one of the busiest Saturdays of the year and all the extra traffic, I guess Met Eireann are covering all bases.

ZX7R

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

They've really gone over the top here. The wind aspect is very doubtful and the rain while heavy is nothing more than a yellow. The pubs and shops won't be too happy if it's a non event

Don't see how they've gone over the top, a yellow advisory has been issued that's not even a warning .

Meteorite58

'Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland
Potential for severe weather on Saturday 15th December. Hazardous conditions may result from heavy rain, and possibly wind also.'

I think places on Sat could have between 20 - 40 mm ( higher up to 50 locally in the NE and possibly more in general depending on the evolution of the Low ) . This will be on top of tomorrow's rain and sizeable accumulations for the week so far . On Sat the rain will be heavy with very dull poor visibility and atm the charts are showing winds up to 70 approx in general overland, up to 90 km on the SE ,E , NE, N coasts during daylight hours ( could be windy in the W, NE in the early hours for a time ).

So yes I believe conditions could be hazardous , at the least heavy surface water and spot flooding but could easily start running into more general flooding also.

Need to keep an eye on how the low develops, atm only mentioning possible windy weather. A large area of high winds not too far off the S and SE coasts could move closer to Ireland or not, we will see. The models have been grappling all week with various scenarios, they have been showing very windy weather and dropping it in repeat numerous times, obviously very difficult for them to work out. Met Eireann are taking wise cautious steps in relation to Saturday's weather in my view and of course are only too aware of the amount of people that will be on the move so near to Christmas. Totally reasonable to put out an advisory to be cautious and aware of potential hazards.

uck51js9zml2yt

munsterlegend wrote: »

The Met models must be showing an awful lot of rain to issue a warning this far in advance. Of course being a very busy shopping day Saturday could be another reason.

Absolutely. All the ME guys want to be able to get to the shops without the usual crowds

JanuarySnowstor

18z confirms what it will be....A standard windy and wet day. For someone who grew up in the 80s in the pre warning era it's bog standard winter weather!!

Villain

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

18z confirms what it will be....A standard windy and wet day. For someone who grew up in the 80s in the pre warning era it's bog standard winter weather!!

289mm so far in November and December in Southeast and another 100mm possible in next 5 days! Not sure if your memory is serving you well.

Try_harder

Is it Storm Deirdre yet?

mickger844posts

Villain wrote: »

289mm so far in November and December in Southeast and another 100mm possible in next 5 days! Not sure if your memory is serving you well.

And in the capital of the South East a ridiculous total of 407.9mm in November and December.

www.waterfordweather.com

murfo

mickger844posts wrote: »

And in the capital of the South East a ridiculous total of 407.9mm in November and December.

www.waterfordweather.com

Does that mean the hosepipe ban will be lifted?

Meteorite58

ICON similar to HIRLAM in track and timing on the latest run bringing the strongest winds overnight and easing late morning / early afternoon, don't look too strong atm apart from coasts, more in the Yellow range . ARPEGE similar but a bit later for winds to clear on the 18Z.

More Notable that the models showing large rainfall accumulations in the W, NW , N and SE by Sat evening.

Models showing differences in rainfall accumulations , differing to the last run , will become clearer tomorrow no doubt.

Edit: Just to add still a need to keep an eye on the wind as uncertainty still remains.

Cantona's Collars

UkMO forecast just now giving heavy rain with strong winds moving up from the South West.
Just to make people jealous,they mentioned disruptive snow for Northern England and virtually all of Scotland with a wind chill of -5 over Eastern Britain.

gozunda

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

UkMO forecast just now giving heavy rain with strong winds moving up from the South West.
Just to make people jealous,they mentioned disruptive snow for Northern England and virtually all of Scotland with a wind chill of -5 over Eastern Britain.

Not a day to be sailing, on a ferry or boat tbh ...

Paully D

Is there any danger of flight disruption from DUB as a direct result of this please guys?

GoneHome

Paully D wrote: »

Is there any danger of flight disruption from DUB as a direct result of this please guys?

Oh for the love of......................

DOCARCH

Paully D wrote: »

Is there any danger of flight disruption from DUB as a direct result of this please guys?

No. Very unlikely.

Joanna D going for a wetter spell weather, Monday into Tuesday, than tomorrow.

Villain

DOCARCH wrote: »

No. Very unlikely.

Joanna D going for a wetter spell weather, Monday into Tuesday, than tomorrow.

Yep ECMWF showing serious rain Monday night into Tuesday

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1073489079680012288

Cantona's Collars

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Just to make people jealous,they mentioned disruptive snow

Apart from kids wanting a day off school nobody should be jealous of disruptive snow.

BLIZZARD7

Deleted User wrote: »

Apart from kids wanting a day off school nobody should be jealous of disruptive snow.

Its the deep snow that causes disruption that people like, not the disruption itself. Unfortunately deep snow means disruption in a country not too used to it. Anyway this is a weather forum, full of fans of extreme weather, and this is off topic.

Mount Vesuvius

Projected Rainfall accumulations to 6am Sunday . Gives an idea where most showers will fall.

JCX BXC

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Apart from kids wanting a day off school nobody should be jealous of disruptive snow.

The snow in march was "disruptive" yet beloved by many.

Mount Vesuvius

Aviation forecast for midnight tonight showing nice bit of thunderstorm activity out to the south west.

mickger844posts

Warnings issued this morning for tomorrow.

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Ireland
Heavy rain during Saturday will lead to accumulations of 30 to 50mm with some mountainous areas exceeding these limits.

Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 10:00

Updated: Friday 14 December 2018 10:00

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 00:01 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland
South to southeast winds will increase to reach 55 to 60 km/h during Saturday morning, strongest in the east.

Later on Saturday afternoon or evening winds veer west to northwest and further increase to reach 55 to 65 km/h with severe gusts of 90 to 110 km/h, possibly exceeding these limits for a time.

Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 10:00

Updated: Friday 14 December 2018 10:00

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 00:01 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

MJohnston

Worth re-iterating: Met Eireann do not refer to Status Yellow as a 'warning', they call them 'alerts', and subtitle this "be aware". Anyone who wants to go off on a rant about this just being our standard winter weather, they aren't paying attention to the intent of these alerts:

The concept behind YELLOW level weather alerts is to notify those who are at risk because of their location and/or activity, and to allow them to take preventative action. It is implicit that YELLOW level weather alerts are for weather conditions that do not pose an immediate threat to the general population, but only to those exposed to risk by nature of their location and/or activity.

JCX BXC

MJohnston wrote: »

Worth re-iterating: Met Eireann do not refer to Status Yellow as a 'warning', they call them 'alerts', and subtitle this "be aware". Anyone who wants to go off on a rant about this just being our standard winter weather, they aren't paying attention to the intent of these alerts:

Eh.....I can't agree because they genuinely do refer to them as warnings. However, a yellow warning is just a be-aware advisory, but it's still a warning.

Kamili

MJohnston wrote: »

Worth re-iterating: Met Eireann do not refer to Status Yellow as a 'warning', they call them 'alerts', and subtitle this "be aware". Anyone who wants to go off on a rant about this just being our standard winter weather, they aren't paying attention to the intent of these alerts:

Uhm..
they actually do call them warnings.

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland
South to southeast winds will increase to reach 55 to 60 km/h during Saturday morning, strongest in the east.

Later on Saturday afternoon or evening winds veer west to northwest and further increase to reach 55 to 65 km/h with severe gusts of 90 to 110 km/h, possibly exceeding these limits for a time.

Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 10:00

Updated: Friday 14 December 2018 10:00

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 00:01 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

Status: Green
no warning
Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Ireland
Heavy rain during Saturday will lead to accumulations of 30 to 50mm with some mountainous areas exceeding these limits.

Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 10:00

Updated: Friday 14 December 2018 10:00

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 00:01 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

https://www.met.ie/warnings

MJohnston

Kamili wrote: »

Uhm..
they actually do call them warnings.

https://www.met.ie/warnings

Fair, but they are very clear about what they mean:

Kamili

MJohnston wrote: »

Fair, but they are very clear about what they mean:

Going off topic and probably for the too many warnings thread..

But why still call them warnings in the title then? Why not just say it in the update that its a yellow weather advisory?
This is what confuses people. They call it one thing in one place then something else somewhere else. When people see Yellow Warning - they go yeah thats a Warning.

MJohnston

Kamili wrote: »

Going off topic and probably for the too many warnings thread..

But why still call them warnings in the title then? Why not just say it in the update that its a yellow weather advisory?
This is what confuses people. They call it one thing in one place then something else somewhere else. When people see Yellow Warning - they go yeah thats a Warning.

I think the advisory/warning differentiation is something else though - 'advisory' being something that is still far enough out timewise that they aren't sure where it will end up on the actual warning scale.

They definitely need to clean up their language for these things, it's all a bit vague for the casual viewer.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Need to get back on topic guys please.

thecomedian

So at this stage, is there any chance of missing that rain tomorrow?

cherryghost

thecomedian wrote: »

So at this stage, is there any chance of missing that rain tomorrow?

Yes, indoors.

irishrover99

thecomedian wrote: »

So at this stage, is there any chance of missing that rain tomorrow?

I take it by your name that must be a joke right?:)

Graces7

Marine forecast has gone orange which affects coastal areas

Status Orange - Gale Warning
Southeasterly winds will increase to gale force 8 or strong gale 9 tonight on coastal waters from Rossan Point to Howth Head to Hook Head and on the Irish Sea, extending to all coastal waters on Saturday morning.

West to northwest winds will increase to gale 8 or strong gale 9 during Saturday afternoon/evening on coastal waters from Hook Head to Loop Head to Erris Head, increasing to storm force 10, possibly violent storm 11 from Hook Head to Valentia.

Villain

I wish I was in Scotland tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1073618364998844423

Meteorite58

Big upgrade from the ECM 12Z bringing very strong winds over Ireland, high end Yellow wind warning now . Will it deepen further and potentially stronger winds ?