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Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

gozunda

From Met Éireann - issued today at 10.00 am

Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland

Potential for severe weather on Saturday 15th December. Hazardous conditions may result from heavy rain, and possibly wind also.

Issued: Thursday 13 December 2018 10:00

Updated: Thursday 13 December 2018 10:00

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 00:01 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

Update :

Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland
A developing depression (Storm Deirdre) will track northeast over Ireland during Saturday afternoon and evening and will bring wet and windy weather to all areas.
West or northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65km/h with gusts of 100km/h generally, with disruptive and damaging gusts to 130km/h likely for a few hours in western and southern counties in the late afternoon and transferring eastwards during the evening.

Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00

Updated: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 15:00 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

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Pops_20

Met Eireann mention the potential for severe weather on Saturday, but don't mention the wind speeds and rainfall amounts as they usually do.

Is this just an advance warning for the possibility of an Orange or Red warning scenario?

Widdensushi

I can't see much for warnings on Saturday, I hope that I am right.

sryanbruen

Pops_20 wrote: »

Met Eireann mention the potential for severe weather on Saturday, but don't mention the wind speeds and rainfall amounts as they usually do.

Is this just an advance warning for the possibility of an Orange or Red warning scenario?

It’s an advisory, not a warning. Warnings will be issued when time comes closer and or certainty grows.

DOCARCH

Mod Note: I changed thread title as there is no indication of any storm (just yet), just potential for a very wet and windy day.

kerrycork13

It was pretty severe wind and rain wise last night in parts of the south and there was very little about it.

shmaupel

kerrycork13 wrote: »

It was pretty severe wind and rain wise last night in parts of the south and there was very little about it.

Similar here in south Donegal. Wind dnc rain woke me up 3 times last night and plenty of branches on the lane this morning.

Larbre34

kerrycork13 wrote: »

It was pretty severe wind and rain wise last night in parts of the south and there was very little about it.

Met É issued yellow advisories for both wind and rain covering, Kerry, Cork, Waterford and Wexford for this period.

munsterlegend

The Met models must be showing an awful lot of rain to issue a warning this far in advance. Of course being a very busy shopping day Saturday could be another reason.

kerrycork13

Larbre34 wrote: »

Met É issued yellow advisories for both wind and rain covering, Kerry, Cork, Waterford and Wexford for this period.

Ya I’m aware of that but i though it merited an orange warning level for both wind and rain. River black water burst it’s banks and the power went out and the sustained wind along with the gusts well inland were unreal. Lots of flooding in plenty areas across south Munster today. Anyways just an opinion

mickger844posts

ECM 12z showing little impact from Wind more of a rain event. Of course all depends on the track and how much the low deepens.

munsterlegend

mickger844posts wrote: »

ECM 12z showing little impact from Wind more of a rain event. Of course all depends on the track and how much the low deepens.

Yep seems to be a lot of rain on the Hirlam model. Not too often you see the red/dark red for a prolonged period.

https://www.dmi.dk/vejr/til-lands/vejrkort/

Reckless Abandonment

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yep seems to be a lot of rain on the Hirlam model. Not too often you see the red/dark red for a prolonged period.

https://www.dmi.dk/vejr/til-lands/vejrkort/

Could you imagine if that was snow..
some mountain is going to be a meter or so higher by Sunday

Larbre34

kerrycork13 wrote: »

Ya I’m aware of that but i though it merited an orange warning level for both wind and rain. River black water burst it’s banks and the power went out and the sustained wind along with the gusts well inland were unreal. Lots of flooding in plenty areas across south Munster today. Anyways just an opinion

Fair enough, I wasn't aware there had been some damage.

sdanseo

The worst part of the HIRLAM 12Z is what happens the precipitation as soon as it crosses the Irish Sea...

JanuarySnowstor

They've really gone over the top here. The wind aspect is very doubtful and the rain while heavy is nothing more than a yellow. The pubs and shops won't be too happy if it's a non event

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

They've really gone over the top here. The wind aspect is very doubtful and the rain while heavy is nothing more than a yellow. The pubs and shops won't be too happy if it's a non event

Given it is one of the busiest Saturdays of the year and all the extra traffic, I guess Met Eireann are covering all bases.

ZX7R

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

They've really gone over the top here. The wind aspect is very doubtful and the rain while heavy is nothing more than a yellow. The pubs and shops won't be too happy if it's a non event

Don't see how they've gone over the top, a yellow advisory has been issued that's not even a warning .

Meteorite58

'Status Yellow - Weather Advisory for Ireland
Potential for severe weather on Saturday 15th December. Hazardous conditions may result from heavy rain, and possibly wind also.'

I think places on Sat could have between 20 - 40 mm ( higher up to 50 locally in the NE and possibly more in general depending on the evolution of the Low ) . This will be on top of tomorrow's rain and sizeable accumulations for the week so far . On Sat the rain will be heavy with very dull poor visibility and atm the charts are showing winds up to 70 approx in general overland, up to 90 km on the SE ,E , NE, N coasts during daylight hours ( could be windy in the W, NE in the early hours for a time ).

So yes I believe conditions could be hazardous , at the least heavy surface water and spot flooding but could easily start running into more general flooding also.

Need to keep an eye on how the low develops, atm only mentioning possible windy weather. A large area of high winds not too far off the S and SE coasts could move closer to Ireland or not, we will see. The models have been grappling all week with various scenarios, they have been showing very windy weather and dropping it in repeat numerous times, obviously very difficult for them to work out. Met Eireann are taking wise cautious steps in relation to Saturday's weather in my view and of course are only too aware of the amount of people that will be on the move so near to Christmas. Totally reasonable to put out an advisory to be cautious and aware of potential hazards.

uck51js9zml2yt

munsterlegend wrote: »

The Met models must be showing an awful lot of rain to issue a warning this far in advance. Of course being a very busy shopping day Saturday could be another reason.

Absolutely. All the ME guys want to be able to get to the shops without the usual crowds

JanuarySnowstor

18z confirms what it will be....A standard windy and wet day. For someone who grew up in the 80s in the pre warning era it's bog standard winter weather!!

Villain

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

18z confirms what it will be....A standard windy and wet day. For someone who grew up in the 80s in the pre warning era it's bog standard winter weather!!

289mm so far in November and December in Southeast and another 100mm possible in next 5 days! Not sure if your memory is serving you well.

Try_harder

Is it Storm Deirdre yet?

mickger844posts

Villain wrote: »

289mm so far in November and December in Southeast and another 100mm possible in next 5 days! Not sure if your memory is serving you well.

And in the capital of the South East a ridiculous total of 407.9mm in November and December.

www.waterfordweather.com

murfo

mickger844posts wrote: »

And in the capital of the South East a ridiculous total of 407.9mm in November and December.

www.waterfordweather.com

Does that mean the hosepipe ban will be lifted?

Meteorite58

ICON similar to HIRLAM in track and timing on the latest run bringing the strongest winds overnight and easing late morning / early afternoon, don't look too strong atm apart from coasts, more in the Yellow range . ARPEGE similar but a bit later for winds to clear on the 18Z.

More Notable that the models showing large rainfall accumulations in the W, NW , N and SE by Sat evening.

Models showing differences in rainfall accumulations , differing to the last run , will become clearer tomorrow no doubt.

Edit: Just to add still a need to keep an eye on the wind as uncertainty still remains.

Cantona's Collars

UkMO forecast just now giving heavy rain with strong winds moving up from the South West.
Just to make people jealous,they mentioned disruptive snow for Northern England and virtually all of Scotland with a wind chill of -5 over Eastern Britain.

gozunda

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

UkMO forecast just now giving heavy rain with strong winds moving up from the South West.
Just to make people jealous,they mentioned disruptive snow for Northern England and virtually all of Scotland with a wind chill of -5 over Eastern Britain.

Not a day to be sailing, on a ferry or boat tbh ...

Paully D

Is there any danger of flight disruption from DUB as a direct result of this please guys?

GoneHome

Paully D wrote: »

Is there any danger of flight disruption from DUB as a direct result of this please guys?

Oh for the love of......................

DOCARCH

Paully D wrote: »

Is there any danger of flight disruption from DUB as a direct result of this please guys?

No. Very unlikely.

Joanna D going for a wetter spell weather, Monday into Tuesday, than tomorrow.