Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

LeinsterDub

lawred2 wrote: »

What's the deal?

Rumours of all UK customs union with backstop as agreed in December

Muscles Schultz

Chopper’s brexitcast isn’t that good but listen to the first minute per below....



https://mobile.twitter.com/keohanedan/status/1058288956993880065

Angry bird

Whether it's Tuesday or whenever, in order for a deal to go through, May has to present a back me or sack me ultimatum. Given that we've been here several times before, I'll go along with Tony Conneelys advice of cautiously optimistic. It's over to the Brits and if there's failure then everyone will know exactly where the blame lies.

Mr.Nice Guy

The DUP are warning they won't go along with NI being subject to the ECJ.

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1058387124267945987

Interestingly, Dodds has tonight also retweeted this warning about a potential No Deal scenario and possible resignations.

https://twitter.com/isaby/status/1058476303517696000

Kermit.de.frog

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Rumours of all UK customs union with backstop as agreed in December

Yes.

UK in slimmed down CU but NI in full CU/SM - reduces scale of Irish sea checks.

ALSO a NI specific backstop.


i.e DUP overboard next week.

flatty

lawred2 wrote: »

Gintonious wrote: »

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7639843/france-fast-track-lorry-deal-ireland/



Being part of a club has its benefits.

The rhetoric coming out of the UK towards Ireland is becoming increasingly aggressive and hostile

The MP for Dover Charlie Elphicke added: “It beggars belief that the Irish think they can have special access through Dover just because the French say so.”

😂 😂 😂

Angry bird

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The DUP are warning they won't go along with NI being subject to the ECJ.

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1058387124267945987

Interestingly, Dodds has tonight also retweeted this warning about a potential No Deal scenario and possible resignations.

https://twitter.com/isaby/status/1058476303517696000

2 things. Dodds calls the shots, not Arlene. The DUP are covering their arse for their domestic base that there's no surrender etc, I.e. hard man talk. It's put up or shut up time for HoC.

Strazdas

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes.

UK in slimmed down CU but NI in full CU/SM - reduces scale of Irish sea checks.

ALSO a NI specific backstop.


i.e DUP overboard next week.

An article in the Daily Express tomorrow backs up Tony Connelly's Twitter thread and talks of a big showdown at the cabinet meeting next Tuesday.

ancapailldorcha

flatty wrote: »

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Cut out the nonsense please.

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1040100/brexit-eu-uk-theresa-may-second-referendum-parliament-vote

Speaking to the Brexit select committee, Sir David Natzler, clerk of the House of Commons said Mrs May is not obligated to modify her Brexit plans, even if a parliamentary majority votes for a second referendum.

The House of Commons does not have the legal power to sway the Government's negotiating position, Sir David said, insisting MPs can only have a meaningful vote on Mrs May's final Brexit deal.

WTF ?

The House of Commons is GOD. They can, and have, voted to kill a king.

LeinsterDub

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1040100/brexit-eu-uk-theresa-may-second-referendum-parliament-vote

WTF ?

The House of Commons is GOD. They can, and have, voted to kill a king.

This is true parliament has no power over the executive 'branch' they can't tell the government what to do. They can however reject her deal or pull the plug on her.

Strazdas

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1040100/brexit-eu-uk-theresa-may-second-referendum-parliament-vote

WTF ?

The House of Commons is GOD. They can, and have, voted to kill a king.

There may well be truth in that article. My understanding is the HoC can either rubber stamp or reject legislation but they can't actually direct government policy or tell a PM what decisions to make.

LeinsterDub

UK and Ireland signal Irish border Brexit deal could be agreed soon

The British and Irish governments have signalled that a Brexit deal is very close after a flurry of official talks and visits on both sides of the Irish border, and a positive statement from the Democratic Unionist party after a separate meeting with the Brexit secretary.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/02/uk-and-ireland-signal-irish-border-brexit-deal-could-be-agreed-soon

The deal appears to be a near complete conceding by the UK to the EU position with the EU conceding on a UK wide custom union. One would expect Labour would support this but the devil is in the detail. Labour's support would be key as it would be poison to the ERG and the DUP

Spook_ie

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well, basically if the UK wants to block Irish trucks transiting the UK, it can do, but the consequences for UK trade would be rather severe and it it would be making itself into some kind of weird pariah state, outside the scope of normal international relations.

It would be akin to Canada blocking US trucks going from Washington State to Alaska.

Of course France will have a fast-track for Irish trucks, they're EU trucks. It's domestic traffic crossing the UK. Likewise, Ireland would probably need to have fast tracks for EU trucks entering Ireland (the EU) via Hollyhead and Fishguard.

Thankfully, only some of British policy is set by tabloid newspapers.

They won't need to block trucks, the trucks themselves will do that, unless some one is saying UK trucks queue on Mway left lane and EU trucks queue in middle lane, and I don't see any reason they'd do that and rusk a truckers rebellion.

kalych

Spook_ie wrote: »

They won't need to block trucks, the trucks themselves will do that, unless some one is saying UK trucks queue on Mway left lane and EU trucks queue in middle lane, and I don't see any reason they'd do that and rusk a truckers rebellion.

It'll definitely be different lanes for different trucks, as per Turkey border:

https://www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6

The problem is not one of infrastructure.

Turkey has invested hundreds of millions of dollars trying to speed up things on its end. It built a massive truck terminus an hour from the Bulgarian border, where customs agents carry out inspections and stamp forms that are then fed into a computerised system shared with the EU. The border gates themselves were revamped to create more lanes and parking lots with modern waiting areas.

Tell me how

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes.

UK in slimmed down CU but NI in full CU/SM - reduces scale of Irish sea checks.

ALSO a NI specific backstop.

i.e DUP overboard next week.

Think that will happen but might have little immediate impact on Brexit

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/02/uk-and-ireland-signal-irish-border-brexit-deal-could-be-agreed-soon

The deal appears to be a near complete conceding by the UK to the EU position with the EU conceding on a UK wide custom union. One would expect Labour would support this but the devil is in the detail. Labour's support would be key as it would be poison to the ERG and the DUP

Bizarrely, next week could see ERG talking "at" Labour commons members reminding them of their duty to their electorate to not vote for such a deal.

Ordinarily, if DUP abandon May, you'd see calls for a GE. But at this stage, who wants that? Tories? Labour?

Could see full bells and whistles of May being challenged by her own party and being removed, government collapsing and a general election before a deal is signed off yet.

Rhineshark

Obviously a potential deal is better than nothing and limbo but I'll be more excited about it if and when it gets past all the troublemakers.

We've been here in "the UK is finally doing something" territory a few times before.

Zubeneschamali

The UK Government clearly has to be in the right frame of mind before doing a deal - last minute panic.

Water John

The mood music looks good. Long way to go over the next few weeks.
Great that Barnier was given his riding instructions and then given a free hand. Great to be able to lead a negotiating team without having to look behind you all the time.

Zubeneschamali

Spook_ie wrote: »

unless some one is saying UK trucks queue on Mway left lane and EU trucks queue in middle lane, and I don't see any reason they'd do that and rusk a truckers rebellion.

They will be sorting UK trucks too: 4 out of 5 trucks leave the UK empty, so it will make sense to load 4 out of 5 ferries with empty trucks as the French will wave them through with just spot checks.

Adding TIR loads from Ireland to the empty truck queue will speed up the UK truck queue so it makes sense.

kuro68k

Water John wrote: »

The mood music looks good. Long way to go over the next few weeks.
Great that Barnier was given his riding instructions and then given a free hand. Great to be able to lead a negotiating team without having to look behind you all the time.

The EU has been united from the start, clear about what it wants and what options are available. All the blame lies entirely with the UK government.

Angry bird

Check out @SkyNewsBreak’;s Tweet: https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1058684017950814209?s=09

ilovesmybrick

He's simply stating what's evident to anyone with half a brain in their head, yet the replies make it look like he's unilaterally declared war on Brexit. You really wonder sometimes.

EdgeCase

Well, he's right there. The very hardline Brexiteers seem to see the Good Friday Agreement as worth risking and potentially collateral damage.

The GFA took absolutely gargantuan efforts by both the Irish and British governments and all parties in Northern Ireland, with the exception of the DUP who were more or less dragged along very reluctantly.

To throw it all away would be a massive disservice to several generations of Irish and British politicians (and that includes Tories). It's also a total betrayal of the majority of the Northern Irish population (on both sides of the sectarian divide) who have put their energy and faith into this process only to have it pulled out from under them by a narrow element of English nationalism who probably couldn't even locate Northern Ireland on a map.

Strazdas

Water John wrote: »

The mood music looks good. Long way to go over the next few weeks.
Great that Barnier was given his riding instructions and then given a free hand. Great to be able to lead a negotiating team without having to look behind you all the time.

Problem is I cannot imagine the hard Brexiteers going down without a fight. It may well all kick off this week or in the next two to three weeks. The idea they will meekly go along with whatever May is proposing seems very hard to believe.

flatty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

flatty wrote: »

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Cut out the nonsense please.

It isn't nonsense to laugh at a mainstream press and politician spouting outrage that EU drivers will be able to fast track when passing into, well, the EU. It is laughable from them, and perfectly demonstrates where they are at. It is pertinent to show them for the idiots they are,and extremely germane to the discussion that they are, in fact, idiots, and one cannot assume any kind of rationality or normal discourse or negotiation with such ignorant fools. I'm fact, I'm beginning to wonder why we, or the EU, waste any time and energy on this. Make an offer, explain that it is a final offer, and let them go and turn on each other out of the room. Plan for, and expect, a no deal brexit, and just cope with what will be a relatively minor bump in the road for the EU.
In short, you cannot reason with or deal with such people, you will never address or change this level of ignorance, so fcuk 'em.

WomanSkirtFan8

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well, he's right there. The very hardline Brexiteers seem to see the Good Friday Agreement as worth risking and potentially collateral damage.

The GFA took absolutely gargantuan efforts by both the Irish and British governments and all parties in Northern Ireland, with the exception of the DUP who were more or less dragged along very reluctantly.

To throw it all away would be a massive disservice to several generations of Irish and British politicians (and that includes Tories). It's also a total betrayal of the majority of the Northern Irish population (on both sides of the sectarian divide) who have put their energy and faith into this process only to have it pulled out from under them by a narrow element of English nationalism who probably couldn't even locate Northern Ireland on a map.

Absolutely and it also nearly collapsed a few times but thanks to George Mitchell and various others they managed to hold it together enough to get it over the line. The GFA needs to be a must be protected at all costs.:cool:

ilovesmybrick

Max Hastings had a pretty good article in this weeks Times about the current jingoistic attitude being displayed towards Europe by the Tories. I'm on my phone but I'll put the full text later for those that don't have access.

Our rudeness to European allies is shameful

Edit: It's actually quite long and don't want to spam the thread with text, but the second to last paragraph sums up his opinion of those attacking Europeans over the Second World War

"What kind of Englishman in 2018 can offer rational justification for condescending to foreigners in general, Europeans in particular? Yet that is what Tory politicians and newspapers do almost daily, before expressing outraged surprise that EU leaders at the negotiating table display no inclination towards generosity — or, more frankly, mercy. We should hang our heads in shame about the number of Europeans long resident in Britain who have either already gone home or are preparing to do so, because they no longer feel welcome here."

Peregrinus

Spook_ie wrote: »

They won't need to block trucks, the trucks themselves will do that, unless some one is saying UK trucks queue on Mway left lane and EU trucks queue in middle lane, and I don't see any reason they'd do that and rusk a truckers rebellion.

It's not the nationality of the truck or the trucker that would be the relevant issue here; it's the origin of the goods being trucked.

And, yes, a fast-track for EU-to-EU goods transiting through Britain would be politically awkward, but it makes good practical sense. Taking out of the queue trucks that don't need to be in the queue in the first place makes the queue shorter and the processing of the queue quicker. Even the truckers who have to remain in the queue will see the benefit of that.

So the question here is whether the British are going to be pragmatic or punitive in their response to the misery they have inflicted on themselves. It's entirely possible that they will be punitive, but it's not inevitable. And, if they are punitive, it won't be at the instance of the truckers. The truckers will be furious about the consequences of a no-deal Brexit, but the industry is sufficiently clued-in to know who it is they should be furious at.

Strazdas

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Max Hastings had a pretty good article in this weeks Times about the current jingoistic attitude being displayed towards Europe by the Tories. I'm on my phone but I'll put the full text later for those that don't have access.

Our rudeness to European allies is shameful

Edit: It's actually quite long and don't want to spam the thread with text, but the second to last paragraph sums up his opinion of those attacking Europeans over the Second World War

"What kind of Englishman in 2018 can offer rational justification for condescending to foreigners in general, Europeans in particular? Yet that is what Tory politicians and newspapers do almost daily, before expressing outraged surprise that EU leaders at the negotiating table display no inclination towards generosity — or, more frankly, mercy. We should hang our heads in shame about the number of Europeans long resident in Britain who have either already gone home or are preparing to do so, because they no longer feel welcome here."

Elephant in the room is the xenophobic element of Brexit. It's far from the case that every Brexiteer is a xenophobe but we can be pretty sure that nearly every xenophobe in Britain voted to Leave.