Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Zubeneschamali

swampgas wrote: »

I'll believe it when Barnier says it. Otherwise it's just spin.

I think that there is reason for optimism on a deal in November.

The FT just has one detail wrong: it is not the EU which is about to move on the NI backstop, it is the UK.

interlocked

Home office reigning in Caroline Nokes comments on rights-to-work checks now as well.

I cant find the full video of her appearance but the above gives an illustration of the petulance and hubris of this lady.

She is simmering, at her appearance at the Home Affairs Select Committee, after being exposed for having no answers to the most basic question about identifying the eligibility of EU nationals to work in the UK after Brexit.

She gave a garbled answer about it being up to employers to check but conceding that she had no idea exactly how they were supposed to do so.

http://https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/30/employers-required-brexit-check-eu-nationals-right-to-work-uk[

This contradicted an previous Home Office statement and they have now contradicted her again this morning.

Caroline Nokes, remember, is the Immigration Minister.

Still, she has a majority of over 18,000 in her constituency, if the Tories put a rosette on a lamp post in Romsey, it would be elected. Competency is such an overrated virtue anyway..........

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT suggesting noises are that the EU is prepared to move on Northern Ireland backstop and that Barnier is under pressure to do so.

https://twitter.com/MikeTQUB/status/1058001427774214150

Hence the optimism.

A puff piece without concrete detail "A UK-wide customs union could potentially remove the need for an NI-only backstop".

Kermit.de.frog

interlocked wrote: »

Home office reigning in Caroline Nokes comments on rights-to-work checks now as well.

Caroline Nokes, remember, is the Immigration Minister.

She was chief executive of the National Pony Society.

She knows what she's doing.

Imreoir2

charlie14 wrote: »

Yet here we are 10 months later with negotiations on a backstop still on-going because the issue was allowed to be kicked down the road allowing talks to move to Phase 2. Something the British were desperate to do in December 2017.

What difference does it make? It was better to show flexibility at the time. The final deal will include a backstop one way or another or there will be no deal. If they refuse to sign a deal including a backstop when they are mere months away from a catastrophy of their own making, then why would you assume they would have been more inclined to agree a legal text for the backstop months ago had Ireland been intransigent and insisted on a finalised agreed legal text before allowing talks to move forward?

Sam Russell

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What difference does it make? It was better to show flexibility at the time. The final deal will include a backstop one way or another or there will be no deal. If they refuse to sign a deal including a backstop when they are mere months away from a catastrophy of their own making, then why would you assume they would have been more inclined to agree a legal text for the backstop months ago had Ireland been intransigent and insisted on a finalised agreed legal text before allowing talks to move forward?

As a result of their game play, they have run out of time. Consequently, the WA is what always was going to be, and the paper dealing with future trading relationship is a four page gloss of what could be with no details and little meaning.

Not a good result for the UK. But a win is a win - they showed us their grit and determination and they will have their blue passports (printed in France).

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT suggesting noises are that the EU is prepared to move on Northern Ireland backstop and that Barnier is under pressure to do so.

https://twitter.com/MikeTQUB/status/1058001427774214150

Hence the optimism.

Yep, the EU will surely sell out Ireland, the UK press have been predicting that for well over a year.

Just wait, any day now...

Look, over there, it's happening!!!! ...Oh wait, thats just a seagull, nevermind...

Angry bird

The FT has proven itself to be rather unreliable and just a mouthpiece for the Brits. The Brits have proven themselves to be a byword for untrustworthy. All those other nations and trading entities will be dying to agree terms with a shower whose word means nothing. But sure, waving union jacks, woohooo

Kermit.de.frog

Downing Street is making plans to steamroll a Brexit deal past Cabinet amid hopes at No 10 that the European Union is inching towards a crucial concession, insiders believe.

Senior figures in Government are convinced that Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, will drop his insistence on a Northern Ireland-only backstop.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-no-10-plans-to-push-deal-past-cabinet-as-hopes-rise-of-talks-breakthrough-a3977781.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1541074412

Something is afoot.

Spook_ie

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

New Free State where exactly?

Probably somewhere in the North East I would think.

Spook_ie

keane2097 wrote: »

Wishful thinking. We would obv just veto it.

Ireland AFAIK can't veto the withdrawal agreement but we could veto the following trade talks.


https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-veto-brexit-deal/

It's an older link but unless it's totally wrong, well then.

EKRIUQ

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-no-10-plans-to-push-deal-past-cabinet-as-hopes-rise-of-talks-breakthrough-a3977781.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1541074412

Something is afoot.

And then says

In Brussels, senior officials denied they were ready to make the concession, with one saying the British proposals could not be made to work in time to draw up a legally binding deal.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1058054167594446852


I'm tellin yeh, moves are underway by the EU to back off a NI specific backstop.

That would have been a bullet proof solution in terms of the border.

This is no surprise. Ireland could have stopped the process in December - it didn't.

flutered

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

FT suggesting noises are that the EU is prepared to move on Northern Ireland backstop and that Barnier is under pressure to do so.

https://twitter.com/MikeTQUB/status/1058001427774214150

Hence the optimism.

tony connolly or bloomberg for the inside info, all kites coming from the uk, is to keep sterling high

charlie14

Enzokk wrote: »

We couldn't get a legal agreement in December last year because it is part of the Withdrawal Agreement and as of last week or so it was, at least according to the UK, about 95% complete. Even if we have gotten written agreement on the border it would still not be agreed until the whole WA is, and this needs to be approved by all those parliaments.

So while we could have gotten a signed agreement you can bet the DUP would have collapsed the government due to it.

By not getting a legislative binding agreement in December nothing has changed since as regards the DUP and others opposed to a backstop.



What has changed is by us accepting a fudge we allowed negotiations to proceed, which the U.K desperately wanted, rather than concentrating their minds on the border issue when we purportedly had the unanimous backing of our E.U. partners to do so.

What we now have by not doing so, is an amendment to the U.K.Customs Bill making it illegal for N.I. to be outside of the U.K. customs territory, negotiations 95% completed with the border issue the main remaining sticking point and severe pressure from the vast majority of our E.U. partners to accept a digital sales tax.

bilston

prawnsambo wrote: »

bilston wrote: »

Aaron Banks to face a criminal investigation

This could be a lot bigger than it looks on the surface. Especially the 'other crimes' that are mentioned. There's a strong feeling on the other side of the Atlantic that there will be similar happenings after election day.

I wonder is there a Russian element to it.

I keep hoping for a big revelation a la the last series of Homeland

Kermit.de.frog

BREAKING in the FT

EU offers London compromise over NI backstop, May expected to indicate acceptance next week.

https://www.ft.com/content/ee75a230-dde7-11e8-9f04-38d397e6661c

Told yeh, you don't get briefings like that unless something is up.



16 MINUTES AGO

...EU Brexit negotiators are exploring a compromise on a plan for Northern Ireland that would give the UK stronger guarantees that a customs border would not be needed along the Irish Sea.

The tentative proposal, briefed to EU ambassadors on Wednesday and floated with UK officials, is intended to overcome the dispute between London and Brussels over “backstop” provisions to avoid a hard border in the island of Ireland.

In a concession to London, the EU would lay out the full terms of a “bare-bones” all-UK customs union in Britain’s exit agreement, avoiding the need to negotiate a second customs treaty after Brexit, according to several diplomats familiar with the plan. The stop-gap measure would remain in place until a permanent UK-EU trade agreement is agreed.

The backstop is the single biggest impediment to a deal on Britain’s withdrawal treaty, since it constrains what independent trade policy the UK can pursue after Brexit if it wants to avoid internal market barriers with Northern Ireland.

Under the backstop compromise, Northern Ireland would remain in a deep customs union with the bloc, applying the union’s full “customs code” and following single market regulations for goods and agri-food products.

At the same time the UK would be in a more “bare-bones” customs arrangement with the EU, in which it would apply a common external tariff on imports from outside the union and rules of origin.
...

Tell me how

bilston wrote: »

I wonder is there a Russian element to it.

I keep hoping for a big revelation a la the last series of Homeland

Its fairly messed up when we are watching real life events and looking for/expecting twists like in a TV show.

Real life was supposed to be way more boring.

LeinsterDub

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1058054167594446852


I'm tellin yeh, moves are underway by the EU to back off a NI specific backstop.

That would have been a bullet proof solution in terms of the border.

This is no surprise. Ireland could have stopped the process in December - it didn't.

Isn't unless and until just the backstop reworded?

murphaph

charlie14 wrote: »

By not getting a legislative binding agreement in December nothing has changed since as regards the DUP and others opposed to a backstop.



What has changed is by us accepting a fudge we allowed negotiations to proceed, which the U.K desperately wanted, rather than concentrating their minds on the border issue when we purportedly had the unanimous backing of our E.U. partners to do so.

What we now have by not doing so, is an amendment to the U.K.Customs Bill making it illegal for N.I. to be outside of the U.K. customs territory, negotiations 95% completed with the border issue the main remaining sticking point and severe pressure from the vast majority of our E.U. partners to accept a digital sales tax.

Parliament can amend that legislation if it wants. The prospect of a no deal might focus minds.

We simply could not have pulled the brakes in December. We would have lost all credibility and support from our EU partners.

prawnsambo

bilston wrote: »

I wonder is there a Russian element to it.

I keep hoping for a big revelation a la the last series of Homeland

There almost certainly is. The issue is with the source of his financing of the Leave.eu and other campaigns. There have been strong suspicions that a lot of this money came from Russia. But it's not just the money. There have been serious concerns about botnets run from Russia and even suggestions that brexit was used as a trial run for the US presidential election. That stuff is obviously very off the wall, but the financial support issues appear to be well founded.

murphaph

prawnsambo wrote: »

There almost certainly is. The issue is with the source of his financing of the Leave.eu and other campaigns. There have been strong suspicions that a lot of this money came from Russia. But it's not just the money. There have been serious concerns about botnets run from Russia and even suggestions that brexit was used as a trial run for the US presidential election. That stuff is obviously very off the wall, but the financial support issues appear to be well founded.

It's not off the wall at all. Ask the Dutch what Russian IT agents get up to. It's a lot easier to defeat the west when you can directly target suggestible westerners. Wasn't possible during the old cold war.

lawred2

Is that not an all UK backstop?

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1058062299758555136

That link should work.

LeinsterDub

charlie14 wrote: »

By not getting a legislative binding agreement in December nothing has changed since as regards the DUP and others opposed to a backstop.



What has changed is by us accepting a fudge we allowed negotiations to proceed, which the U.K desperately wanted, rather than concentrating their minds on the border issue when we purportedly had the unanimous backing of our E.U. partners to do so.

What we now have by not doing so, is an amendment to the U.K.Customs Bill making it illegal for N.I. to be outside of the U.K. customs territory, negotiations 95% completed with the border issue the main remaining sticking point and severe pressure from the vast majority of our E.U. partners to accept a digital sales tax.

A legal binding agreement and a gentleman's agreement between two countries/blocks are effectively the same thing. Who's going to force the UK to stick to it's word/agreement either way? What can the EU do other than block trade if the UK goes back on its word/agreement either way?

flutered

Spook_ie wrote: »

Tell me how wrote: »

You can have that. No problem. In Coventry.

You'd deny however many 000's of people in the North their rights whilst the government enshrines the rights of however many 00's of travellers, that'll go down well

it will not be the queens highway any longer, all highways will be paddys

charlie14

murphaph wrote: »

Parliament can amend that legislation if it wants. The prospect of a no deal might focus minds.

We simply could not have pulled the brakes in December. We would have lost all credibility and support from our EU partners.

The prospects of no move to even negotiations regarding a deal in December would have concentrated minds even more-so.


So what are you saying, that we had the backing of our E.U. partners in December, but only if we didn`t use it ?
If so not what I, or indeed many, would look on as backing in any sense of the word.

Rhineshark

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ftbrussels/status/1058062299758555136

That link should work.

From above article

Sabine Weyand, the EU’s deputy chief negotiator, indicated to ambassadors that a Northern Ireland-only customs union with the EU would still be needed in Britain’s withdrawal agreement as a final fail-safe measure — a so-called “backstop to the backstop” that London strongly opposes.

“The same fundamental problems are there,” said one EU diplomat briefed on the plan. “They’ve played around with the ingredients to the deal.”

judeboy101

Rhineshark wrote: »

From above article

This right here. ^. Unless there's a specific ni backstop, this bare bones thing would be a disaster. It wouldn't cover agri food coming from uk mainland

charlie14

LeinsterDub wrote: »

A legal binding agreement and a gentleman's agreement between two countries/blocks are effectively the same thing. Who's going to force the UK to stick to it's word/agreement either way? What can the EU do other than block trade if the UK goes back on its word/agreement either way?

A legally binding agreement being required before talks were allowed to proceed would have ensured the political problem was confronted and sorted then rather than what we got.
A fudge allowing a can to be kicked down the road towards the eleventh hour where there is 95% agreement other than the border issue.