Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Tell me how

Peregrinus wrote:

Nothing. This is a non-story. It's the usual "UK media trumpets position which EU has long held as a breakthrough/climbdown/hostile attack on the UK/game-changer" routine.

It's stunning how often they attempt something like this. Like the blue passports non event.

The performance of the European bodies and Michel Barnier and his team has been made look even more impressive by the buffoonery in the UK and elements of their media.

I listen to the Brexitcast podcast by BBC political journalists and I find it stunning how even they are somewhat jovial and flippant about the whole thing.

An Irish journo brought up the border one day and was shut down and told we've loads of time to talk about that and the went to a piece about a superfan of the UK painting her fingernails with the union Jack.

Last week, they read out an email (credit to them for that) from someone who said they listened every week and had no idea what was going on with Brexit. To be fair, they then gave a summation to bring that listener up to speed.

20silkcut

Peregrinus wrote: »

They don't so much prevent their partner from trading with a third country as restrict the terms on which they can do so. For instance if you do a trade deal with the US one term might be that you won't enter into a trade deal with any third country under which you would accept a ban on hormone-treated beef. And that limits the trade deal you might then do with the EU.

Countries can if they have the negotiating muscle, and the EU would have it. But they don't do that in order to harm the third country, but to protect or advance their own interests. A straight up ban on trading with Teapotistan, unless Teapotistan is under UN sanctions or something of the kind, would (a) be a hostile act towards Teapotistan (by both countries - the one that demands this, and the one that agrees to it) and (b) very illegal under WTO rules.

Surely protecting ones own interests is going to harm others interests by default.
Brexit Britain will protect its own interests by importing cheap food from third countries that will cause untold harm to Irish agriculture.
Protecting your own interests is just a euphemism. Trade disruptions and manipulation cause severe hardship and economic devastation.
The EU protecting its own interests is seen as a hostile act and punishment by brexiteers.
Likewise a hard no deal brexit will be seen as a hostile act by many EU countries and especially ourselves.
I can’t see much appetite for conciliation in such a scenario.

First Up

LeinsterDub wrote:

Resistance to what end? The UK wouldn't want them back. Nationalist always had the option of joining a UI. Once out of the UK there will be no way back in.

Their own wee country. Not economically sustainable but then neither is Kosovo.

Zubeneschamali

prawnsambo wrote: »

Parliament isn't the problem, the Tories and their props are the problem.

We all know what the deal is - a long transition to Canada+ via an all-UK Customs Union with a carve-out for NI as a backstop. This has been clear since the EU said an all-UK customs deal was on the table.

May goes to Parliament with this deal at the last minute, and says "We have fought the good fight and negotiated the best deal possible for the UK, winning concessions from the EU which no-one thought possible at the outset. This is not only the best deal, it is now the only deal - it is this deal or Mad Max time."

So, are the DUP or rhe ERG really going to cause a no-deal crashout in March and a 10 year depression in the UK? On past form, no - they will complain a lot and then chicken out.

Tell me how

Zubeneschamali wrote:

So, are the DUP or rhe ERG really going to cause a no-deal crashout in March and a 10 year depression in the UK? On past form, no - they will complain a lot and then chicken out.

DUP could be in position of selecting death by needle or chair for their party at that point so I expect them to go down fighting.

Zubeneschamali

Tell me how wrote: »

You think the British parliament should have been forced by the EU, early in a negotiation process, to enact legislation to enforce a partial agreement cementing the possible segmentation of the UK?

No chance. Never going to happen.

Wouldn't matter anyhow, since they could just amend the legislation later if they change their minds.

The EU and UK agreed that IF there is a withdrawal agreement, it will include the backstop. That is still true despite noises from various people in the UK.

If there is no withdrawal agreement, all bets are off. But that was always true no matter what the outcome of Phase 1 was.

20silkcut

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We all know what the deal is - a long transition to Canada+ via an all-UK Customs Union with a carve-out for NI as a backstop. This has been clear since the EU said an all-UK customs deal was on the table.

May goes to Parliament with this deal at the last minute, and says "We have fought the good fight and negotiated the best deal possible for the UK, winning concessions from the EU which no-one thought possible at the outset. This is not only the best deal, it is now the only deal - it is this deal or Mad Max time."

So, are the DUP or rhe ERG really going to cause a no-deal crashout in March and a 10 year depression in the UK? On past form, no - they will complain a lot and then chicken out.

If it’s left to the last minute it will be done in a minute.

kowtow

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

We all know what the deal is - a long transition to Canada+ via an all-UK Customs Union with a carve-out for NI as a backstop. This has been clear since the EU said an all-UK customs deal was on the table.

May goes to Parliament with this deal at the last minute, and says "We have fought the good fight and negotiated the best deal possible for the UK, winning concessions from the EU which no-one thought possible at the outset. This is not only the best deal, it is now the only deal - it is this deal or Mad Max time."

So, are the DUP or rhe ERG really going to cause a no-deal crashout in March and a 10 year depression in the UK? On past form, no - they will complain a lot and then chicken out.

I think when push comes to shove it may not matter what the DUP and the ERG do.

There'll be plenty of labour MP's ready to vote for it to keep faith with their constituents (who voted leave) and - since the all UK customs union looks a bit like a labour policy anyway - you might even find Corbyn fudging it through the six tests. The alternative for him is to be the man that pushed the UK off the cliff and that's not a good look when you are hoping to fight an election in the near future.

What May needs to do is run down the clock, and it strikes me that the pieces are falling into place.

I suspect that this is a bit more choreographed than it is being made to look, without yet being a done deal. We are at the stage where individual leaders need to be very careful to avoid grandstanding for their own domestic advantage if there is any risk that doing so might have unintended consequences.

Leroy42

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nothing. This is a non-story. It's the usual "UK media trumpets position which EU has long held as a breakthrough/climbdown/hostile attack on the UK/game-changer" routine.

Really?

Surely the UK being able to remain at the current process for financial services, which is a major part of their economy, is a major story.

Wasn't that being talked off a a massive card in the EU deck, the moving of parts of the CoL to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin etc? Doesn't this agreement mean that none of that needs to happen?

The markets has certainly taken it positively, and I would see it as being a major driver of how TM intends to get a deal through the HoC.

prawnsambo

Leroy42 wrote: »

Really?

Surely the UK being able to remain at the current process for financial services, which is a major part of their economy, is a major story.

Wasn't that being talked off a a massive card in the EU deck, the moving of parts of the CoL to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin etc? Doesn't this agreement mean that none of that needs to happen?

The markets has certainly taken it positively, and I would see it as being a major driver of how TM intends to get a deal through the HoC.

Strangely enough though, the UK never seemed keen on including services in any deal with the EU. It seemed odd to me at the time because, as you say, the UK economy depends heavily on the services industry. The only thing that would have explained it in my mind, was the upcoming offshore tax evasion regulation and how that may have affected vested interests in the UK. Including many in the Tory party.

Zubeneschamali

Akrasia wrote: »

It's an agreement for the UK to be worse off in basically every way they were before Brexit.

Every possible Brexit deal will leave the UK worse off than they are today, so they either accept being worse off or they don't Brexit.

Zubeneschamali

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nothing. This is a non-story. It's the usual "UK media trumpets position which EU has long held as a breakthrough/climbdown/hostile attack on the UK/game-changer" routine.

May needs a PR win to sell the deal that she already has in her back pocket.

Tell me how

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

May need a PR win to sell the deal that she already has in her back pocket.

She has no deal in her back pocket. There is a deal on the table in a room which she has to walk out of with one and while she doesn't want to pick it up, there is no other option.

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.politico.eu/article/portuguese-business-pushes-for-brexit-deal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Portugal has come out pushing for a deal.

Ireland needs to get a result on the border...soon...because other countries and business groups will follow.

ancapailldorcha

Leroy42 wrote: »

Really?

Surely the UK being able to remain at the current process for financial services, which is a major part of their economy, is a major story.

Wasn't that being talked off a a massive card in the EU deck, the moving of parts of the CoL to Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin etc? Doesn't this agreement mean that none of that needs to happen?

The markets has certainly taken it positively, and I would see it as being a major driver of how TM intends to get a deal through the HoC.

It is in the sense that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. The UK still needs to solve the NI border issue. Encouraging but it's also doomed to failure unless TM can tame her Brexiteers and if a Tory leader could do that we wouldn't be in this mess.

Tell me how

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.politico.eu/article/portuguese-business-pushes-for-brexit-deal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Portugal has come out pushing for a deal.

Ireland needs to get a result on the border...soon...because other countries and business groups will follow.

Everyone in Europe wants a deal. They always have. The UK are the barrier with their red lines.

Zubeneschamali

Tell me how wrote: »

DUP could be in position of selecting death by needle or chair for their party at that point so I expect them to go down fighting.

Not one single solitary DUP voter will vote Sinn Fein because of Brexit, no matter what happens.

Not one.

The DUP is not going anywhere.

Tell me how

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Not one single solitary DUP voter will vote Sinn Fein because of Brexit, no matter what happens.

Not one.

The DUP is not going anywhere.

How do you think they will fare in a United Ireland should that come to pass?

ancapailldorcha

Tell me how wrote: »

How do you think they will fare in a United Ireland should that come to pass?

If that sort of pragmatism existed within the upper echelons of the DUP, they wouldn't have endorsed Brexit.

Zubeneschamali

kowtow wrote: »

I suspect that this is a bit more choreographed than it is being made to look, without yet being a done deal.

Two hints in that direction: Davis and Johnson signed a letter recently in which they suggested that the negotiations had become: " a choreographed show of resistance followed by surrender".

The other is that Raab's letter saying he could present the deal to a Parliamentary Committee on the 21st was rapidly followed by a denial that there was a deal to present. Yet.

Tell me how

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If that sort of pragmatism existed within the upper echelons of the DUP, they wouldn't have endorsed Brexit.

Exactly.

Zubeneschamali

Tell me how wrote: »

She has no deal in her back pocket. There is a deal on the table in a room which she has to walk out of with one and while she doesn't want to pick it up, there is no other option.

But it is lying right there on the table. No more progress is needed - May simply has to say "We're out of time, this is the best deal we can get". Raab already wrote to the committee saying he can present the deal on the 21st of this month, a bold statement if he doesn't yet know what the deal is.

So May knows the deal, she knows there is no more time or scope for negotiations (Coveney said as much yesterday), she is just waiting for the right time to bring the deal to London.

Kermit.de.frog

Tell me how wrote: »

Everyone in Europe wants a deal. They always have. The UK are the barrier with their red lines.

Yes but crucially Portugal is saying the deal does not have to be perfect. They are saying they need a deal.

Code for "you know this Irish stuff...we don't think that should jeopardise a deal"

Poland also explicitally said "Do we really want no deal because of Ireland!?" some months back at a meeting of foreign ministers although at the time they were knocked back.

When push comes to shove...

Zubeneschamali

Tell me how wrote: »

How do you think they will fare in a United Ireland should that come to pass?

They will send MPs to Dublin instead of Westminster, and will appoint the Deputy First Minister at Stormont instead of the First Minister.

ancapailldorcha

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

When push comes to shove...

The EU is behind Ireland. If it weren't, the NI border wouldn't have been one of the three key issues.

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes but crucially Portugal is saying the deal does not have to be perfect. They are saying they need a deal.

Code for "you know this Irish stuff...we don't think that should jeopardise a deal"

Poland also explicitally said "Do we really want no deal because of Ireland!?" some months back at a meeting of foreign ministers although at the time they were knocked back.

When push comes to shove...

When push comes to shove, you have 1 country who is still in the bad books against 26 who arent.

Portugals usherings whatever they mean, mean very little.


Was cosgrave behind this press release ?

Zubeneschamali

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

If that sort of pragmatism existed within the upper echelons of the DUP, they wouldn't have endorsed Brexit.

The DUP have a whole different kind of pragmatism. They reportedly decided to back Brexit in a 15 minute meeting. This is not because they understood the issues and the impact it would have on Northern Ireland, nor were they studying the odds and scenarios carefully and concluding that it would fail and they could gain by voting for it and losing.

Their vote does not depend on stuff like the above, so fundamentally they don't care about it. Brexit had a Union Jack on it, so their voters will like it so they backed it.

And no matter how big a disaster it is, their voters won't care because it is more important to vote against SF than to vote for sensible policies.

Mc Love

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The EU is behind Ireland. If it weren't, the NI border wouldn't have been one of the three key issues.

And the GFA - without that there wouldnt be much of an issue

Tell me how

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

They will send MPs to Dublin instead of Westminster, and will appoint the Deputy First Minister at Stormont instead of the First Minister.

What will the mandate be of a party with "Unionist" in their name?

At the very least they will be looking at a name change and as such, they will have ceased to exist.

There will be unionists remaining in Ireland who will need and deserve representation, but, the DUP will be viewed as belonging to a time since past and a different group will step forward to help the community integrate in to the new United Ireland.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The DUP have a whole different kind of pragmatism. They reportedly decided to back Brexit in a 15 minute meeting. This is not because they understood the issues and the impact it would have on Northern Ireland, nor were they studying the odds and scenarios carefully and concluding that it would fail and they could gain by voting for it and losing.

Their vote does not depend on stuff like the above, so fundamentally they don't care about it. Brexit had a Union Jack on it, so their voters will like it so they backed it.

And no matter how big a disaster it is, their voters won't care because it is more important to vote against SF than to vote for sensible policies.

In a United Ireland. There will no longer be a Union Jack so what will the party set out to achieve for such voters.

Dyr

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes but crucially Portugal is saying the deal does not have to be perfect. They are saying they need a deal.

Code for "you know this Irish stuff...we don't think that should jeopardise a deal"

Poland also explicitally said "Do we really want no deal because of Ireland!?" some months back at a meeting of foreign ministers although at the time they were knocked back.

When push comes to shove...

And you'll have the Irish civil servants pointing out that the Dail has the nuclear option of not ratifying any deal that does not include a backstop..if push comes to shove