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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please
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It would be very difficult to get RoI into the Commonwealth around a UI.
NI decides to have a ref and say it passes.
RoI has its referendum and say it passes.
RoI (and NI?) then need a referendum regarding the Commonwealth which may be mostly symbolic but includes loyalty to the monarch of Britain and that is going to be difficult for many Irish people to swallow. What happens if *that* one fails (especially if it as seen as a sop to the DUP who have not exactly made themselves popular down here lately)? Does that then impact the choice NI made? Do we need to have a referendum on a theoretical before a border poll?
"If there was a border poll for a United Ireland that passes in both NI and RoI, do you agree with this change to the Constitution to allow Ireland to join the Commonwealth?"
I dunno. I think it would be a can of worms tbh.0 -
Can anyone here read German - apparently, a deal could be agreed within days, and Britain would only stay in the CU for an extra 12 months?
https://mobil.derstandard.at/2000090881310/Brexit-Deal-in-den-naechsten-Tagen?amplified=true&__twitter_impression=true0 -
I have read various comments in the UK that suggest that parliament would not allow a no deal Brexit.
Has anyone elaborated how that would happen?
Anything other than a no deal crash out requires agreement with the EU - how does parliament force negotiations with the EU after or outside of the current ones?0 -
Rhineshark wrote: »It would be very difficult to get RoI into the Commonwealth around a UI.
NI decides to have a ref and say it passes.
RoI has its referendum and say it passes.
RoI (and NI?) then need a referendum regarding the Commonwealth which may be mostly symbolic but includes loyalty to the monarch of Britain and that is going to be difficult for many Irish people to swallow. What happens if *that* one fails (especially if it as seen as a sop to the DUP who have not exactly made themselves popular down here lately)? Does that then impact the choice NI made? Do we need to have a referendum on a theoretical before a border poll?
"If there was a border poll for a United Ireland that passes in both NI and RoI, do you agree with this change to the Constitution to allow Ireland to join the Commonwealth?"
I dunno. I think it would be a can of worms tbh.
Given the way the Constitution is set up, it would indeed be a can of worms.
To be honest, I don't think reunification would see much change for NI, except for British and Irish government roles reversed. The settlement will probably see the NI institutions maintained for 50 years with the UK having a forum for how the place is run, in a kind of reverse Anglo-Irish agreement. Sterling may even be maintained or an official dual currency area.
I've a feeling that it will be modelled on the Hong Kong withdrawal, but gentler given the sensitivities.0 -
An Ciarraioch wrote: »Can anyone here read German - apparently, a deal could be agreed within days, and Britain would only stay in the CU for an extra 12 months?
https://mobil.derstandard.at/2000090881310/Brexit-Deal-in-den-naechsten-Tagen?amplified=true&__twitter_impression=true
Here you go:
Helsinki - The EU-27 negotiations with the British Government appear to be nearing a positive conclusion. Already "in the next few days" there could be an agreement between EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his counterpart in London, it said on Thursday from circles of the European Commission on the sidelines of the election congress of the European Christian Democrats in Helsinki.
According to information from the STANDARD, the agreement on the UK withdrawal from the EU on 29 March will be available next Monday, which must then be unanimously confirmed by the heads of state and government.
Immediately thereafter, Prime Minister Theresa May could inform her cabinet on Tuesday about how she intends to resolve outstanding issues such as the border regime in Ireland. This problem should be solved by gaining time. Thus, the EU offers to the British that not only Northern Ireland, but the entire United Kingdom will remain in the Customs Union for at least one year longer.
Ireland border should remain open
Thus, a "hard line" on the Irish island would be avoided. Already a year ago, it was agreed that Britain would retain its obligations as an EU member after leaving the country for a transitional period of 21 months until the end of 2020 - also as a significant net contributor to the EU budget. Physical checks could be carried out in England. Between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the south as an EU member state, an open border would remain as before. In the long term, the border problem should be solved by a comprehensive free trade agreement between the EU and the UK, following the model of the EU treaty with Canada (Ceta).
If the deal works out early next week, the Permanent President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, would convene a special EU summit on 25 November, on the weekend, to avoid financial market turmoil. According to STANDARD information, plans to hold it in Brussels on 17 November have since been shelved because the time is too short and Barnier is closing the deal, as mandated by the heads of government at the last summit in October should.
(Thomas Mayer from Helsinki, 8.11.2018)0 -
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Can't see how that could technically happen. Something has to be brought to parliament to vote on. A no-deal brexit is an absence of any agreement and therefore either will happen as a result of a deal being brought to parliament and voted down or no deal being made and therefore nothing for parliament to vote on.Deleted User wrote: »I have read various comments in the UK that suggest that parliament would not allow a no deal Brexit.
Has anyone elaborated how that would happen?
Anything other than a no deal crash out requires agreement with the EU - how does parliament force negotiations with the EU after or outside of the current ones?
The only thing parliament could possibly do, is introduce a motion to have the PM revoke the A50 notice and pass it. But I'm not even sure that's legally possible.0 -
I would hope that the thrust of any unification would be more accepting other's traditions rather than just changing everything and annoying everyone. Something such as making the 12th July a national holiday with an Orange Parade in Dublin (and elsewhere if they want to).
The big thing for unionists is the monarchy (notice Arleen's favourite brooch is of the crown). They love the queen, so we are going to have to find a way to include her (or her successors) - possibly through joining the Commonwealth.
There's accommodation and there's nonsense. And sir, this is nonsense.
Too much pandering and window dressing goes to making Unionists feel needed.
I don't think it's a stretch for anyone voting for reunification to take on board that indeed, they'll be voting to reunify with a REPUBLIC which has a head of state called a PRESIDENT, who is elected by the people. As mad a concept as that may be for some.
Sure there's room for cultural acceptance, but joining the commonwealth? Having the queen as some sort of figurehead? You have got to be kidding.
Nonsense.
Regarding your July 12 suggestion, I would certainly welcome a bank holiday in July. In fact we should implement it now in advance.
Also, there are already Orange parades in the Republic as it stands and there's nothing stopping anybody organising more.0 -
J Mysterio wrote: »Here you go:
Helsinki - The EU-27 negotiations with the British Government appear to be nearing a positive conclusion. Already "in the next few days" there could be an agreement between EU negotiator Michel Barnier and his counterpart in London, it said on Thursday from circles of the European Commission on the sidelines of the election congress of the European Christian Democrats in Helsinki.
According to information from the STANDARD, the agreement on the UK withdrawal from the EU on 29 March will be available next Monday, which must then be unanimously confirmed by the heads of state and government.
Immediately thereafter, Prime Minister Theresa May could inform her cabinet on Tuesday about how she intends to resolve outstanding issues such as the border regime in Ireland. This problem should be solved by gaining time. Thus, the EU offers to the British that not only Northern Ireland, but the entire United Kingdom will remain in the Customs Union for at least one year longer.
Ireland border should remain open
Thus, a "hard line" on the Irish island would be avoided. Already a year ago, it was agreed that Britain would retain its obligations as an EU member after leaving the country for a transitional period of 21 months until the end of 2020 - also as a significant net contributor to the EU budget. Physical checks could be carried out in England. Between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the south as an EU member state, an open border would remain as before. In the long term, the border problem should be solved by a comprehensive free trade agreement between the EU and the UK, following the model of the EU treaty with Canada (Ceta).
If the deal works out early next week, the Permanent President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, would convene a special EU summit on 25 November, on the weekend, to avoid financial market turmoil. According to STANDARD information, plans to hold it in Brussels on 17 November have since been shelved because the time is too short and Barnier is closing the deal, as mandated by the heads of government at the last summit in October should.
(Thomas Mayer from Helsinki, 8.11.2018)
Although shy on detail, as presented that would be hard for the Irish government to stomach as there is no Backstop. It also puts pressure on the EU to quickly conclude a trade deal even though the terms might not be in it's interests.
The Ceta model doesn't allow for open borders either.
We shall see, I guess.0 -
Rhineshark wrote: »the Commonwealth which may be mostly symbolic but includes loyalty to the monarch of Britain and that is going to be difficult for many Irish people to swallow.
There are already 31 Republics in the Commonwealth who are not required to be loyal to any monarch.0 -
Rhineshark wrote: »It would be very difficult to get RoI into the Commonwealth around a UI.
NI decides to have a ref and say it passes.
RoI has its referendum and say it passes.
RoI (and NI?) then need a referendum regarding the Commonwealth which may be mostly symbolic but includes loyalty to the monarch of Britain and that is going to be difficult for many Irish people to swallow. What happens if *that* one fails (especially if it as seen as a sop to the DUP who have not exactly made themselves popular down here lately)? Does that then impact the choice NI made? Do we need to have a referendum on a theoretical before a border poll?
"If there was a border poll for a United Ireland that passes in both NI and RoI, do you agree with this change to the Constitution to allow Ireland to join the Commonwealth?"
I dunno. I think it would be a can of worms tbh.
There are plenty of republics that are Members of the Commonwealth (such as India). The Royal family have more significance in some countries where the Queen is still their head of State over others like Pakistan and South Africa.
Would it require a referendum anyway. Didn't Ireland recently join the French equivalent of the Commonwealth and that didn't require a referendum.0 -
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MrMusician18 wrote: »Although shy on detail, as presented that would be hard for the Irish government to stomach as there is no Backstop.
The backstop will be in any Withdrawal Agreement: Barnier, Varadkar and Coveney have all repeated that fact this week. May is just keeping that 5% of the WA under wraps so that the DUP don't freak out.
May will pretend this UK wide CU is the backstop, but to keep the ERG happy, it will be temporary, so the NI text formerly known as the backstop will be in there as the backstop backstop. Then May will tell the DUP that the UK wide CU "backstop" will prevent the real backstop from ever being needed.0 -
It is impossible to judge May until a deal is or isn't done. She has kept all of the balls in the air until now, without there being a collapse of the talks, a rift in her party, losing a parliamentary majority or precipitating a general election. All being said, that is some achievement.
Some on this thread have said a strong leader should have done this or that. Strong leaders create divisions. If a strong leader had taken strong decisions, they wouldn't be leader now. May has managed to get the UK to the endgame, others would not have been able to do that.
For all that, her ultimate success or failure depends on whether she can deliver a deal that holds the UK together and ensures it can continue to exist and grow without suffering political convulsions. A near-impossible task, but one she actually is quite close to pulling off. She has looked weak, she has looked indecisive, she has flown kites, but all the time they have inched forward.
If she falls short, and a hard Brexit remains a real possibility, the argument that they should have had a political convulsion before now wins out. However, any deal that results in an orderly Brexit, with limited damage to the UK or the EU, is a vindication of May.
To be honest it feels like we were always heading to this point. The UK would have been fighting for a deal until the last second. This was predicted by many and the predictions are even further that there will be bending from the EU at the last minute as well.
So I don't think Theresa May gets credit for steering the ship to a point it was always heading towards. Where it falls apart for her is her red lines, her insistence on Chequers being a thing. We still don't know even with that if Brexit gets over the line. It could fall apart for her very quickly if parliament doesn't back her deal and if that happens her keeping it together for 18 months comes to nothing.An Ciarraioch wrote: »Can anyone here read German - apparently, a deal could be agreed within days, and Britain would only stay in the CU for an extra 12 months?
https://mobil.derstandard.at/2000090881310/Brexit-Deal-in-den-naechsten-Tagen?amplified=true&__twitter_impression=true
Seems like this is just a rehash of the articles we have had the last week or so. The deal is already done it just needs May to get it through. The whole of the UK will be in the customs union but what they don't have in there is about the backstop.
I think the 12 months extra may be about the transition period to negotiate the future relationship and after that if the deal doesn't guarantee open borders between NI and Ireland, then the backstop kicks in.
that about covers where we are heading, it will be up to May to fudge it to her party to get it through. I suspect they will go hard to sell it to the Brexiteers that the eventual deal will mean they are out of the EU when in reality they will be BRINO at the end of the day.0 -
Rhineshark wrote: »It would be very difficult to get RoI into the Commonwealth around a UI.
NI decides to have a ref and say it passes.
RoI has its referendum and say it passes.
RoI (and NI?) then need a referendum regarding the Commonwealth which may be mostly symbolic but includes loyalty to the monarch of Britain and that is going to be difficult for many Irish people to swallow. What happens if *that* one fails (especially if it as seen as a sop to the DUP who have not exactly made themselves popular down here lately)? Does that then impact the choice NI made? Do we need to have a referendum on a theoretical before a border poll?
"If there was a border poll for a United Ireland that passes in both NI and RoI, do you agree with this change to the Constitution to allow Ireland to join the Commonwealth?"
I dunno. I think it would be a can of worms tbh.
There are plenty of republics that are Members of the Commonwealth (such as India). The Royal family have more significance in some countries where the Queen is still their head of State over others like Pakistan and South Africa.
Would it require a referendum anyway. Didn't Ireland recently join the French equivalent of the Commonwealth and that didn't require a referendum.
Yes, you just send in your application to the next Commonwealth Summit, and the various governments then decide whether to approve/reject it, but virtually unknown for the latter to happen, unless you get expelled, like Zimbabwe.0 -
Sam Russell wrote: »A United Ireland ... would be negotiated ahead of any referendum and all the details made quite clear.
With who? Unionist politicians will have nothing whatsoever to do with such a negotiation.an Orange Parade in Dublin (and elsewhere if they want to).
This is a bad idea. The Parades Commission would have to go all-Ireland. 'Love Ulster' types would have to be quarantined and prevented from bring their hate-fest to the rest of the country.so we are going to have to find a way to include her (or her successors) - possibly through joining the Commonwealth.
I wouldn't blame people in the 26 counties for voting against a UI if they had to rejoin that useless anachronistic imperial club or have the so-called royals as some sort of head of state.
The best way to achieve a UI smoothly is for just about everything to stay the same, with Stormont as a devolved-from-Dublin regional parliament, keep the PSNI, keep the parades commission, let them have a British monarch as a sort of regional head-of-state.
Gradually harmonise the important economic stuff like taxes, currency, corporation tax, and so on, and eventually Stormont would become pointless.0 -
Brexit
Under one draft timetable discussed in Whitehall today:
- Cabinet likely Monday
- Tue am Raab meet Barnier
- Tue pm publication of full Withdrawal - Agreement and outline political declaration
- Tue pm confirm likely EC council
- Wed am PM statement to Commons
Smoke , perhaps a ballhop, from the tunnel
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1060545358173036546
Commons is currently in recess till 12th November0 -
Brexit
Under one draft timetable discussed in Whitehall today:
- Cabinet likely Monday
- Tue am Raab meet Barnier
- Tue pm publication of full Withdrawal - Agreement and outline political declaration
- Tue pm confirm likely EC council
- Wed am PM statement to Commons
Smoke , perhaps a ballhop, from the tunnel
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1060545358173036546
Commons is currently in recess till 12th November
Strangely, in his tweet immediately before that he said there was no breakthrough on the Border:
http://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10605449680984842300 -
An Ciarraioch wrote: »Strangely, in his tweet immediately before that he said there was no breakthrough on the Border
I think it is becoming clearer and clearer that while nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, both sides have already agreed on what is going to be agreed when everything is agreed.
They are now just talking about when to emerge, rubbing their eyes and blinking in the early morning light, from the "tunnel" after the toughest negotiations ever in the history of ham sandwiches.0 -
https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1060485610178334725
Taking back control for a price, a big price.0 -
I don't view either as tainted and would be 100% against changing or dropping either. Should add in relation to UI I wouldn't be in favour of it at this time for social, securitydropping, changing or lessening some of our more tainted symbols of nationalism - the flag and the anthem..I don't view either as tainted and would be 100% against changing or dropping either. Should add in relation to UI I wouldn't be in favour of it at this time for social, security & economic reasons.
Just to be clear, you quoted a line as if I posted it when it wasn't me that said it.
Sorry, on tablet, not the first time I've managed to do that.0 -
An Ciarraioch wrote: »Yes, you just send in your application to the next Commonwealth Summit, and the various governments then decide whether to approve/reject it, but virtually unknown for the latter to happen, unless you get expelled, like Zimbabwe.
Oddly enough, the last Republic joining the Common Wealth of Nations ( to give it its proper title ) never had any dealings as part of the British Empire but was a part of The East German Empire, then ruled by the Belgians until 1962 was Rwanda in 2009.0 -
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The only place I've heard it be suggested Ireland join the commonwealth is boards.ie.0
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This is the type of crap that goes unchallenged on twitter.
And this is Andrew Neill, BBC presenter!
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1060576423390466049
He is intentionally making it seem like Varadkar is issuing unhinged diktats.0 -
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Kermit.de.frog wrote: »This is the type of crap that goes unchallenged on twitter.
And this is Andrew Neill, BBC presenter!
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1060576423390466049
He is intentionally making it seem like Varadkar is issuing unhinged diktats.
A lot of tail wagging the dog replies to that tweet..
Seems like some British people still think Ireland is a part of the United Kingdom.0 -
A lot of tail wagging the dog replies that tweet..
Seems like some British people still think Ireland is a part of the United Kingdom.
Oh and one lad thinks our corporate tax rate is by special dispensation
https://twitter.com/the_wise__cat/status/1060579227878203394?s=190 -
Junkyard Tom wrote: »
This is a bad idea. The Parades Commission would have to go all-Ireland. 'Love Ulster' types would have to be quarantined and prevented from bring their hate-fest to the rest of the country.
No the Parades Commission wouldn't have to go all-Ireland. The orange parade in Donegal every year seems to be hassle free. While these parades maybe threantening in NI, they wouldn't be in most the ROI like Dublin, Cork, Galway etc. Anyway,since there would be so many parades going on in NI, the marchers would be spread very thin in the ROI.I wouldn't blame people in the 26 counties for voting against a UI if they had to rejoin that useless anachronistic imperial club or have the so-called royals as some sort of head of state.
The Royals would not be our head of State. Orange parades and bands are part of protestant culture in NI, it would be unaceptable in any reasonable society to deny them this day. Mind you, I'd be banning any bonfire over 2 metres, everywhere on the island of Ireland.The best way to achieve a UI smoothly is for just about everything to stay the same, with Stormont as a devolved-from-Dublin regional parliament, keep the PSNI, keep the parades commission, let them have a British monarch as a sort of regional head-of-state.
Stormont isn't working and it has never worked. It will just become a protestant talking shop because everyone will know that the action will be in Dublin and no one with any sense would want to be part of that sectarian cesspool.Gradually harmonise the important economic stuff like taxes, currency, corporation tax, and so on, and eventually Stormont would become pointless.
I'd just get on with that quickly. Stormont had already got permission to set the same corporate tax rate as the republic.0 -
A lot of tail wagging the dog replies to that tweet..
Seems like some British people still think Ireland is a part of the United Kingdom.
I reckon a safe bet reading those replies from the audience he panders too that he took H L Mencken`s quote "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public" and adapted it to cover his own neck of the woods0 -
It is impossible to judge May until a deal is or isn't done. She has kept all of the balls in the air until now, without there being a collapse of the talks, a rift in her party, losing a parliamentary majority or precipitating a general election. All being said, that is some achievement.
Some on this thread have said a strong leader should have done this or that. Strong leaders create divisions. If a strong leader had taken strong decisions, they wouldn't be leader now. May has managed to get the UK to the endgame, others would not have been able to do that.
For all that, her ultimate success or failure depends on whether she can deliver a deal that holds the UK together and ensures it can continue to exist and grow without suffering political convulsions. A near-impossible task, but one she actually is quite close to pulling off. She has looked weak, she has looked indecisive, she has flown kites, but all the time they have inched forward.
If she falls short, and a hard Brexit remains a real possibility, the argument that they should have had a political convulsion before now wins out. However, any deal that results in an orderly Brexit, with limited damage to the UK or the EU, is a vindication of May.
Sorry to drag this back a couple of pages but this is just so wrong. T.May is a really poor PM, she has a single focus and that's staying in power. She says anything that will keep her in a job and shows zero support for her team.
A true leader does just that, leads. They show people that they have a vision, a path forward and the energy and will to make it happen. They put the cause ahead of their personal gain. They put people around them that will likewise support and drive the team in a single focused direction. But she puts people in positions and then goes to war with them, even with Rabb she makes him leader of brexit negations and soon after strips him of the power and put's herself in. She calls elections and looses majority control. She sells out the UK and hands control to the DUP, she agrees to backstops and goes back on her word.
She's slimey, untrustworthy. She'll throw you under a bus and will go where the wind blows. An absolute rubbish leader, probably the worst the UK has ever had and that's saying something
We're so luck to have Leo and Simon representing us, they may make the odd mistake but overall their doing us proud....in my opinion.0 -
No the Parades Commission wouldn't have to go all-Ireland. The orange parade in Donegal every year seems to be hassle free. While these parades maybe threantening in NI, they wouldn't be in most the ROI like Dublin, Cork, Galway etc. Anyway,since there would be so many parades going on in NI, the marchers would be spread very thin in the ROI.
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Their are a few reasons why the orange order parade is hassle free in Donegal.
It is held in Rossnowlagh, and doesn`t pass through any even minor urban areas. It is not a triumphalist, and in fairness to the local organisers, any attempts by branches to do so are quickly nipped in the bud and such branches banned from future participation.0 -
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Sorry to drag this back a couple of pages but this is just so wrong. T.May is a really poor PM, she has a single focus and that's staying in power. She says anything that will keep her in a job and shows zero support for her team.
A true leader does just that, leads. They show people that they have a vision, a path forward and the energy and will to make it happen. They put the cause ahead of their personal gain. They put people around them that will likewise support and drive the team in a single focused direction. But she puts people in positions and then goes to war with them, even with Rabb she makes him leader of brexit negations and soon after strips him of the power and put's herself in. She calls elections and looses majority control. She sells out the UK and hands control to the DUP, she agrees to backstops and goes back on her word.
She's slimey, untrustworthy. She'll throw you under a bus and will go where the wind blows. An absolute rubbish leader, probably the worst the UK has ever had and that's saying something
We're so luck to have Leo and Simon representing us, they may make the odd mistake but overall their doing us proud....in my opinion.
Agree with most of this, however she is not the worst PM the UK has had. That belongs to Cameron, he pulled the pin off the grenade and just left the room. Don't forget that when he was elected leader of the Conservatives in 2005 he pulled the party out of the European People's Party and they went on to form their own group. This meant that they lost crucial touch with what Germany was thinking as they were now on opposite ends of Merkel's party.
So you have respectively probably the worst PM ever closely followed by the second worst and behind them is Jeremy Corbyn who arguably has been the worst opposition leader. How he is not ahead in the polls by 20 points is astonishing. Give any decent leader the conditions that he finds himself in and they would be comfortably in the lead. I suspect even if Ed Milliband was still in charge even some of the tabloids would warm to him, but Corbyn just is so uninspiring when it comes to what is important.0
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This discussion has been closed.
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