Economic growth doubles to 9%

Ace2007

Zebra3 wrote: »

One that allows hard working people to own their own home for starters.

One that isn’t obsessed with the “market” sorting everything out.

But why do they have to own their own home? You do realise this is a luxury in many part of Europe - owning a house isn’t the norm, hence when the crash came it affected Ireland worse.

This perception that you have to buy a house is then reason why so many people got into so much debt - they bought because everyone told them too.

dxhound2005

NIMAN wrote: »

Sorry but got to disagree with this.

Some of the mad money being spent on property in Dublin now will surely mean people will be in NE should another crash happen.

I have to disagree with that. Negative equity was not a feature of any previous recessions. Because there were proper lending rules, which I get the impression are now restored. If people are paying out mad money, it is not being funded by 100% loans, and their asset will not go into negative equity.

Ace2007

NIMAN wrote: »

Sorry but got to disagree with this.

Some of the mad money being spent on property in Dublin now will surely mean people will be in NE should another crash happen.

But the majority of people who buy a house worth 400k+ are doin so with the intention of it being their life long home and therefore it doesn’t matter if they are in NE after the crash as they they never planned on selling anyway.

Think of anyone who bought a house between say 2009 and 2016 - they are all in positive equity but you don’t seem them rushing to sell now do you as they bought for a home not to sell on in future.

Jimmy.

Ace2007 wrote: »

But the majority of people who buy a house worth 400k+ are doin so with the intention of it being their life long home and therefore it doesn’t matter if they are in NE after the crash as they they never planned on selling anyway.

Think of anyone who bought a house between say 2009 and 2016 - they are all in positive equity but you don’t seem them rushing to sell now do you as they bought for a home not to sell on in future.

You got to consider many won’t be buying these homes. They are free council houses. 400k they wouldn’t have €4.

6541

I think Brexit is over-hyped crap - the deal is probably already done in a back room somewhere.

Wibbs

Asset prices rise and fall during the business cycle, this isn't a revelation, it's been happening for thousands of years.

Not at the consistent pace of the last 50 years.

What made the fall of the last business cycle different is that it was also the end of the long term debt cycle which lasts about 70 years.

There was a downward correction of the long term debt cycle, but it levelled out and continues to expand.

Ace2007 wrote: »

But why do they have to own their own home? You do realise this is a luxury in many part of Europe - owning a house isn’t the norm, hence when the crash came it affected Ireland worse.

True, but the Irish market is different to others in Europe. Renters are less protected for a start and as we've seen rents can go nuts. It's a far more precarious feeling position for Irish people. Owning your own home, at least aiming to do so with each mortgage payment feels much more secure.

Ace2007 wrote: »

Think of anyone who bought a house between say 2009 and 2016 - they are all in positive equity but you don’t seem them rushing to sell now do you as they bought for a home not to sell on in future.

Maybe - and I realise other factors were in play in the "Tiger" - but people who bought a house between 1996 and 2006 were also in positive equity, in many cases serious positive equity and they mostly weren't rushing to sell either. They were rushing to buy, but that was the major factor in the last screwup.

That said on my travels in Dublin anyway I see a fair number of For Sale, Sale agreed and Sold signage going on. Something that was definitely much lower in the Bust. I also see far more house remodelling going on, even compared to the Boom. The latter being more in play I suppose because in the Boom scaling up was easier to do by buying somewhere bigger, somewhere else, rather than today where mortgages are harder gotten, but house improvement loans easier gotten. Better deal for the banks too as you're paying off an extra loan to improve what remains mostly their asset until the last mortgage payment.

lawred2

Wibbs wrote: »

I'd prefer a sustainable one.

Sure. What would you like to change to achieve that?

Wibbs

lawred2 wrote: »

Sure. What would you like to change to achieve that?

Good question. Difficult one too. I suppose off the top of my head... Lower world population. More sustainability in goods. Reduction in the turnover churn of consumerism. Some way - and I dunno how at this stage TBH - some way to deinsentivise glorified betting in the financial world on this churn and boom/bust cycle. The Money™ drives much of it.

seamus

lawred2 wrote: »

Sure. What would you like to change to achieve that?

Regulatory measures to curb, even punish speculatory activities.

People who buy stuff just to watch it increase in value are a pox on modern economies, and the main driver of boom/bust cycles.

Investment is good, lending is good. It fuels onward growth.

Purchasing "stuff" on the basis that you expect it to become scarce, or in order to make it more scarce, sucks money out of the general economy into private bank accounts.

We're at the stage where a small number of individuals have the resources to manipulate national or even global economies through asset speculation, and we need to push back and limit their power.

RobertKK

Back in 2016 only 6 counties were net contributors to the exchequer: Dublin, Cork, Wicklow, Meath, Kildare and Kilkenny.

NIMAN

RobertKK wrote: »

Back in 2016 only 6 counties were net contributors to the exchequer: Dublin, Cork, Wicklow, Meath, Kildare and Kilkenny.

Probably why the government does their best to give them all the jobs, infrastructure etc.

nice_guy80

Houses don't seem to be selling as quick down the country as they were last year or 2016

People way more cautious