Post Tropical Storm Helene 17/18 Sep 2018

Graces7

CirrusBusiness wrote: »

Parts of Wexford and Waterford could reach Red criteria. Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois and Wicklow would be Orange at least looking at the Arpege here. At least it moves through pretty quickly but there is the potential for some damaging gusts and fallen trees in these areas as they are in full leaf. Down to the final track which will determine the level of warnings issued.

This storm is bringing similar levels of gusts as Ophelia which was enough to cause significant damage in our garden. Nothing to be sniffed at.

as long as it stays there... no sneaking over westwards please... Ophelia was a lady; got as far as Clare then veered right to the midlands. Left Mayo and Sligo alone.

Just been out at the back and calm but ominous somehow. Almost flat ocean. Wind picking up now.

Graces7

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

A normal day in the West.
It's mild and pleasant here at the other end of the country with a slight breeze.
Looks to be a bit different here when this system arrives.

Yes and that keeps the midges away!

spookwoman

Remember also lot of trees weakened due to previous storms and then the heat killed a few. Southern coastal areas beware I see one of the surf sites showing possible 15/15ft swell.

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1040981622609391616

Another post, seems similar to their last one.

spookwoman

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1040981622609391616

Another post, seems similar to their last one.

Link not working

They posted another 5 mins ago https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1040989730823909376

The latest guidance has shifted the forecast track of Storm Helene a little westward from yesterday with the centre of the low now tracking up over parts of Ireland instead of mainly up through the Irish Sea. That said, there continues to be large uncertainty in the exact track. Timings are also a little variant, however it still looks as though the main impact will occur on Monday evening/night and early on Tuesday. Yellow level impacts from wind are looking increasingly likely for coastal districts of the east and south, with strong gales or storm force winds for a time in the Celtic and Irish seas. Short interval intense rainfall may occur in places, but due to the speed at which the system is moving through, it is not envisaged at this stage that a rain warning will be required, although this aspect will continue to be examined more closely once our high resolution model guidance becomes available on Sunday. Met Éireann forecasters will continue to monitor the situation and issue warnings, as required, closer to the time.

JanuarySnowstor

12z runs weaken it quite a bit.
It's barely a yellow warning going by this evenings charts.
Next.....lol

MJohnston

ICON is still showing solid 'Orange' level gusts for much of the south and east:



And there's trouble brewing Wednesday too:

Meteorite58

Yeah on average latest winds not as strong as in previous runs and mainly staying out to sea. Will see what the ECM says later.

MJohnston

Also, again everywhere on the west of the storm centre will receive a fair amount of rain:

goat2

spookwoman wrote: »

Remember also lot of trees weakened due to previous storms and then the heat killed a few. Southern coastal areas beware I see one of the surf sites showing possible 15/15ft swell.

I am watching the aftermath of the storm in America, and they seem to have big trees too near their homes, it is no wonder the houses are being crumpled, they knew it was coming, they could have lopped them down a bit, It would have prevented them from being toppled

How soon will the warnings be out (if any)?

goat2

We should feel it on the way about 7 o clock in the evening onwards Monday, I should think

Kermit.de.frog

Deleted User wrote: »

How soon will the warnings be out (if any)?

https://twitter.com/WhispersNewsLTD/status/919623752937242624

MeTheMan

Going on the last two charts gusts will be worse on Wednesday. With trees weakend from helene the day before Wednesday go turn out to be worse.

Widdershins

It's become very gusty, very suddenly, here. I can hear things blowing around outside.
Storms are so exciting but I feel bad for wanting one.

Sycamore Tree

Good coverage about it on 9 o'clock news. Looks like a rain event with strong winds on Monday night but nothing exceptional. MetE were right not to shout wolf.

monster1

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Good coverage about it on 9 o'clock news. Looks like a rain event with strong winds on Monday night but nothing exceptional. MetE were right not to shout wolf.

You might get knocked yet

acequion

Widdershins wrote: »

It's become very gusty, very suddenly, here. I can hear things blowing around outside.
Storms are so exciting but I feel bad for wanting one.

Very gusty here too in Kerry. We're all different but storms are a million miles from my idea of excitement.

EdgeCase

Fairly windy night in Cork City. It started turning a bit breezy and wet after 7pm-ish.

It’s just a normal autumnal breezy night though.

CeilingFly

BBC weather not mentioning any warnings and now just saying strong winds.

Hysterical indo has got rid of the sensationalist headline of "life threatening" winds and has even deleted their "yellow warning" hysterics.

pauldry

Pretty windy week ahead

60knot gusts likely in places

Strong enough 120 to 130kph

Already over 40knots tonight

SleetAndSnow

anybody been able to check the ECM? I can't atm

EDIT: just saw carlow weathers post, look like it shifted more east. So much shifting.

km79

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

anybody been able to check the ECM? I can't atm

EDIT: just saw carlow weathers post, look like it shifted more east. So much shifting.

Colonel Claptrap

Could Dublin flights become affected based on current projections?

Meteorite58

ECM has tracked a bit more E on this run and winds not as strong and mostly staying off shore, the SE getting clipped by some strong gusts on this one but very fast moving system.

Pressure readings higher too as they reach Ireland and filling. Looks like a windy night along the coasts mostly atm

jacksie66

This post has been deleted.

EdgeCase

Just in from a late night in Cork and it's absolutely pouring rain with fairly significant gusts of wind.

refusetolose

yep, bucketing down in cork

Graces7

acequion wrote: »

Very gusty here too in Kerry. We're all different but storms are a million miles from my idea of excitement.

Me too; lost loved ones and they remind me. and thinking f those who have to be out in all weathers safeguarding us.

Last night here was appallingly windy and wild. A real autumnal gale. Hour after hour of it. Sheer savage noise.

West Mayo; offshore island

Gaoth Laidir

Remember, these are 1-minute mean speeds, so about 10% higher than the equivalent 10-minute mean we use.

Discodog

There is a huge difference depending on where you live. I am by the sea, West of Galway. It's called the Wild Atlantic Way for a reason. Last night was just a typical autumn gale & Helene probably will be the same.

Headline news Wet & windy night in Connemara

Villain

Wednesday looking much worse than Helene now on latest runs, interesting week ahead!

Discodog

Villain wrote: »

Wednesday looking much worse than Helene now on latest runs, interesting week ahead!

I what way ? Wind, rain or both ? I am trying to plan my week

Sparko

Villain wrote: »

Wednesday looking much worse than Helene now on latest runs, interesting week ahead!

I'm flying out of Dublin on Wednesday morning, will be keeping an eye on this thread!

Harry Palmr

Looks like Waterford is going to get this square on, my tomato plant! :eek:

SleetAndSnow

https://twitter.com/meteireann/status/1041270627045462017?s=21

Assuming this is from Helene?

goat2

I am supposed to be travelling Tuesday, Wednesday and wondering where this is going to have the worst effects, I am thinking Cork, Waterford, Maybe Clare

Oops69

at least no one will be getting married on monday night / early hrs of tuesday morning so we might get a bit of peace .

Daffodil.d

Im in Waterford and just finished a walk in Tramore where the waves are wild but it's as warm as a summers day. Hard to believe a storm is on the way.

Meteorite58

Models starting to show an increased wind field over the South of the country . WRF would be a good representation of the way they are trending. Lots of changes in the models over the last couple of days as the remnants of Helene get absorbed by the larger area of LP. Probably see this evolve right up to the end.

goat2

Met Eireann, saying Mayo and Galway will be worst hit

Pentecost

Oops69 wrote: »

at least no one will be getting married on monday night / early hrs of tuesday morning so we might get a bit of peace .

I’m going to London from Dublin on Tuesday so if it affects me I might start moaning! Doesn’t look like it should aside from the weather being a bit crap.

Sycamore Tree

goat2 wrote: »

Met Eireann, saying Mayo and Galway will be worst hit

Bring it on, we can take it!

pad199207

Still a decent circulation to her today

SleetAndSnow

https://www.met.ie/met-eireann-briefing-regarding-ex-tropical-storm-helene-at-midday-on-sunday-16th-september

However, it is possible that yellow level warning criteria may be reached in counties Cork, Waterford, Wexford, Wicklow, Dublin, Meath and Louth. Suitable warnings will be issued if necessary.

So yeah not a thing to be worried about if all goes to plan

Graces7

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://www.met.ie/met-eireann-briefing-regarding-ex-tropical-storm-helene-at-midday-on-sunday-16th-september

However, it is possible that yellow level warning criteria may be reached in counties Cork, Waterford, Wexford, Wicklow, Dublin, Meath and Louth. Suitable warnings will be issued if necessary.

So yeah not a thing to be worried about if all goes to plan

so our yellow warnings re heavy rain for Mayo and Galway ? Nothing to do with Helene?

SleetAndSnow

Graces7 wrote: »

so our yellow warnings re heavy rain for Mayo and Galway ? Nothing to do with Helene?

Not sure grace. It says 'Associated weather fronts' which is what the warnings for Galway and Mayo are for. To me that sounds like a different system

Artane2002

Graces7 wrote: »

so our yellow warnings re heavy rain for Mayo and Galway ? Nothing to do with Helene?

It could from Helene, the heavy rain is on the storm's west side while the strong winds are on its east and south side. I'm not fully sure because of the time the warnings are valid for.

Meteorite58

Hi Res models coming into view now. Looks like a breezy/ windy day across the country on Monday ( blustery in showers ), strongest winds along coasts, SE might get some high winds for a short time Mon night.

Graces7

Artane2002 wrote: »

It could from Helene, the heavy rain is on the storm's west side while the strong winds are on its east and south side. I'm not fully sure because of the time the warnings are valid for.

Not that it matters! The evening performance is just starting up anyways... at least we had a sweet day... Deluges and gusts.... West mayo. offshore island.