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Post Tropical Storm Helene 17/18 Sep 2018

135

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Parts of Wexford and Waterford could reach Red criteria. Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois and Wicklow would be Orange at least looking at the Arpege here. At least it moves through pretty quickly but there is the potential for some damaging gusts and fallen trees in these areas as they are in full leaf. Down to the final track which will determine the level of warnings issued.

    This storm is bringing similar levels of gusts as Ophelia which was enough to cause significant damage in our garden. Nothing to be sniffed at.

    as long as it stays there... no sneaking over westwards please... Ophelia was a lady; got as far as Clare then veered right to the midlands. Left Mayo and Sligo alone.

    Just been out at the back and calm but ominous somehow. Almost flat ocean. Wind picking up now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    A normal day in the West. :)
    It's mild and pleasant here at the other end of the country with a slight breeze.
    Looks to be a bit different here when this system arrives.

    Yes and that keeps the midges away!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,988 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Remember also lot of trees weakened due to previous storms and then the heat killed a few. Southern coastal areas beware I see one of the surf sites showing possible 15/15ft swell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,694 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1040981622609391616

    Another post, seems similar to their last one.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,988 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1040981622609391616

    Another post, seems similar to their last one.

    Link not working

    They posted another 5 mins ago https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1040989730823909376

    The latest guidance has shifted the forecast track of Storm Helene a little westward from yesterday with the centre of the low now tracking up over parts of Ireland instead of mainly up through the Irish Sea. That said, there continues to be large uncertainty in the exact track. Timings are also a little variant, however it still looks as though the main impact will occur on Monday evening/night and early on Tuesday. Yellow level impacts from wind are looking increasingly likely for coastal districts of the east and south, with strong gales or storm force winds for a time in the Celtic and Irish seas. Short interval intense rainfall may occur in places, but due to the speed at which the system is moving through, it is not envisaged at this stage that a rain warning will be required, although this aspect will continue to be examined more closely once our high resolution model guidance becomes available on Sunday. Met Éireann forecasters will continue to monitor the situation and issue warnings, as required, closer to the time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,067 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    12z runs weaken it quite a bit.
    It's barely a yellow warning going by this evenings charts.
    Next.....lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,673 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    ICON is still showing solid 'Orange' level gusts for much of the south and east:

    jpc7DNe.gif

    And there's trouble brewing Wednesday too:

    6OHhKMS.jpg


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,210 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yeah on average latest winds not as strong as in previous runs and mainly staying out to sea. Will see what the ECM says later.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,673 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Also, again everywhere on the west of the storm centre will receive a fair amount of rain:

    yEwZMEc.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    spookwoman wrote: »
    Remember also lot of trees weakened due to previous storms and then the heat killed a few. Southern coastal areas beware I see one of the surf sites showing possible 15/15ft swell.

    I am watching the aftermath of the storm in America, and they seem to have big trees too near their homes, it is no wonder the houses are being crumpled, they knew it was coming, they could have lopped them down a bit, It would have prevented them from being toppled


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    How soon will the warnings be out (if any)?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    We should feel it on the way about 7 o clock in the evening onwards Monday, I should think


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,168 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    How soon will the warnings be out (if any)?

    https://twitter.com/WhispersNewsLTD/status/919623752937242624


  • Registered Users Posts: 527 ✭✭✭MeTheMan


    Going on the last two charts gusts will be worse on Wednesday. With trees weakend from helene the day before Wednesday go turn out to be worse.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,633 ✭✭✭✭Widdershins


    It's become very gusty, very suddenly, here. I can hear things blowing around outside.
    Storms are so exciting but I feel bad for wanting one.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    Good coverage about it on 9 o'clock news. Looks like a rain event with strong winds on Monday night but nothing exceptional. MetE were right not to shout wolf.


  • Registered Users Posts: 762 ✭✭✭monster1


    Good coverage about it on 9 o'clock news. Looks like a rain event with strong winds on Monday night but nothing exceptional. MetE were right not to shout wolf.

    You might get knocked yet


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,941 ✭✭✭acequion


    It's become very gusty, very suddenly, here. I can hear things blowing around outside.
    Storms are so exciting but I feel bad for wanting one.

    Very gusty here too in Kerry. We're all different but storms are a million miles from my idea of excitement.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    Fairly windy night in Cork City. It started turning a bit breezy and wet after 7pm-ish.

    It’s just a normal autumnal breezy night though.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,378 ✭✭✭CeilingFly


    BBC weather not mentioning any warnings and now just saying strong winds.

    Hysterical indo has got rid of the sensationalist headline of "life threatening" winds and has even deleted their "yellow warning" hysterics.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,244 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pretty windy week ahead

    60knot gusts likely in places

    Strong enough 120 to 130kph

    Already over 40knots tonight


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,694 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    anybody been able to check the ECM? I can't atm

    EDIT: just saw carlow weathers post, look like it shifted more east. So much shifting.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,268 ✭✭✭✭km79


    anybody been able to check the ECM? I can't atm

    EDIT: just saw carlow weathers post, look like it shifted more east. So much shifting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 945 ✭✭✭Colonel Claptrap


    Could Dublin flights become affected based on current projections?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,210 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM has tracked a bit more E on this run and winds not as strong and mostly staying off shore, the SE getting clipped by some strong gusts on this one but very fast moving system.

    Pressure readings higher too as they reach Ireland and filling. Looks like a windy night along the coasts mostly atm

    iLqI9GL.png


    MKfVgog.png


    zRDyViY.png


    MRue9nl.png


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,988 ✭✭✭jacksie66


    This post has been deleted.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,471 ✭✭✭EdgeCase


    Just in from a late night in Cork and it's absolutely pouring rain with fairly significant gusts of wind.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,559 ✭✭✭refusetolose


    yep, bucketing down in cork


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    acequion wrote: »
    Very gusty here too in Kerry. We're all different but storms are a million miles from my idea of excitement.

    Me too; lost loved ones and they remind me. and thinking f those who have to be out in all weathers safeguarding us.

    Last night here was appallingly windy and wild. A real autumnal gale. Hour after hour of it. Sheer savage noise.

    West Mayo; offshore island


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Remember, these are 1-minute mean speeds, so about 10% higher than the equivalent 10-minute mean we use.

    al082018.18091518.gif


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,946 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    There is a huge difference depending on where you live. I am by the sea, West of Galway. It's called the Wild Atlantic Way for a reason. Last night was just a typical autumn gale & Helene probably will be the same.

    Headline news Wet & windy night in Connemara :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Wednesday looking much worse than Helene now on latest runs, interesting week ahead!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,946 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    Villain wrote: »
    Wednesday looking much worse than Helene now on latest runs, interesting week ahead!

    I what way ? Wind, rain or both ? I am trying to plan my week :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,166 ✭✭✭Sparko


    Villain wrote: »
    Wednesday looking much worse than Helene now on latest runs, interesting week ahead!

    I'm flying out of Dublin on Wednesday morning, will be keeping an eye on this thread!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Looks like Waterford is going to get this square on, my tomato plant! :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,694 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    I am supposed to be travelling Tuesday, Wednesday and wondering where this is going to have the worst effects, I am thinking Cork, Waterford, Maybe Clare


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,477 ✭✭✭Oops69


    at least no one will be getting married on monday night / early hrs of tuesday morning so we might get a bit of peace .


  • Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭Daffodil.d


    Im in Waterford and just finished a walk in Tramore where the waves are wild but it's as warm as a summers day. Hard to believe a storm is on the way.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,210 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models starting to show an increased wind field over the South of the country . WRF would be a good representation of the way they are trending. Lots of changes in the models over the last couple of days as the remnants of Helene get absorbed by the larger area of LP. Probably see this evolve right up to the end.

    tempresult_rui3.gif

    nmmuk-25-69-0_rkg1.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    Met Eireann, saying Mayo and Galway will be worst hit


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,874 ✭✭✭Pentecost


    Oops69 wrote: »
    at least no one will be getting married on monday night / early hrs of tuesday morning so we might get a bit of peace .

    I’m going to London from Dublin on Tuesday so if it affects me I might start moaning! Doesn’t look like it should aside from the weather being a bit crap.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    goat2 wrote: »
    Met Eireann, saying Mayo and Galway will be worst hit
    Bring it on, we can take it!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Still a decent circulation to her today

    C28509_E2_EC3_A_4_DD4_97_A7_DCB5_D80_C14_DA.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,694 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    https://www.met.ie/met-eireann-briefing-regarding-ex-tropical-storm-helene-at-midday-on-sunday-16th-september

    However, it is possible that yellow level warning criteria may be reached in counties Cork, Waterford, Wexford, Wicklow, Dublin, Meath and Louth. Suitable warnings will be issued if necessary.

    So yeah not a thing to be worried about if all goes to plan


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    https://www.met.ie/met-eireann-briefing-regarding-ex-tropical-storm-helene-at-midday-on-sunday-16th-september

    However, it is possible that yellow level warning criteria may be reached in counties Cork, Waterford, Wexford, Wicklow, Dublin, Meath and Louth. Suitable warnings will be issued if necessary.

    So yeah not a thing to be worried about if all goes to plan

    so our yellow warnings re heavy rain for Mayo and Galway ? Nothing to do with Helene?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,694 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Graces7 wrote: »
    so our yellow warnings re heavy rain for Mayo and Galway ? Nothing to do with Helene?

    Not sure grace. It says 'Associated weather fronts' which is what the warnings for Galway and Mayo are for. To me that sounds like a different system


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,029 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Graces7 wrote: »
    so our yellow warnings re heavy rain for Mayo and Galway ? Nothing to do with Helene?

    It could from Helene, the heavy rain is on the storm's west side while the strong winds are on its east and south side. I'm not fully sure because of the time the warnings are valid for.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,210 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Hi Res models coming into view now. Looks like a breezy/ windy day across the country on Monday ( blustery in showers ), strongest winds along coasts, SE might get some high winds for a short time Mon night.

    tempresult_yaf4.gif

    tempresult_ouf6.gif

    i3H0mvH.gif

    ZHdzYEr.gif

    jeqyCJY.gif

    SMA9OaS.gif


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    It could from Helene, the heavy rain is on the storm's west side while the strong winds are on its east and south side. I'm not fully sure because of the time the warnings are valid for.

    Not that it matters! The evening performance is just starting up anyways... at least we had a sweet day... Deluges and gusts.... West mayo. offshore island.


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