Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Graces7

Gonzo wrote: »

I have to agree, so far this winter has been one of the worst I can ever remember in terms of cold. We are now half way through January and the last cold night we had was 31st of October, back in Autumn.

No frost or sub zero temperatures since Winter began, 74 relatively mild nights in a row, most days in double digit temperatures, no hail, sleet or snow anywhere below 500 meters.

Even if cold weather, frost and snow is not your passion, there has been almost no sun or dryness since 1st of November either. Sure we've had a few days without rain, especially over the past 3 weeks, but the ground at least here where I live, has remained somewhat damp the entire time, either from mist or drizzle.

I know the weather is about to get more interesting, we will surely get some frost or wintry precipitation over the next 2 weeks, but this first half of winter has been exceptionally bland, mild and non eventful even by Irish standards.

Perfect and enjoyable .... bliss.... no need for costly heating.... great..
Bland is the wrong word. Just a dimension few seem to see...

Sycamore Tree

hawkwing wrote: »

First cut of silage in South Tipp,not joking.:o

Wow. Would there be enough sugar levels in the grass now?

ronnie3585

Another grey misty day in Galway city. It feels like it’s been misting for a month, nothing but mist:(

Billcarson

Thankfully later next week we are out of this rut finally. Turning colder and hopefully a trend into a cold spell.

Wine Goddess

Great post explaining how to read charts and especially slider lows....something which was a mystery to me until now!

Link hopefully working now.......

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91150-model-output-discussion-7th-january-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3960467

Rebelbrowser

First sunny morning in Cork since 22 Dec I reckon.

pad199207

Certainly a wintery feel to the end of Met Eireanns forecast this morning.

“Wednesday: Rain will extend gradually eastwards across the country during the morning. Brighter conditions, with sunny spells, will follow from the Atlantic during the day, but a few scattered showers will develop in Atlantic coastal areas, becoming heavier and more frequent later, with a risk of hail, mainly along west and northwest coasts. Mild at first, but it will turn gradually colder, as southerly winds veer west to northwest in direction, the winds mostly light to moderate overland. Maximum afternoon temperatures 6 to 9 Celsius
Wednesday night will be dry in most areas, with clear intervals, but scattered showers will occur, mainly along northern, western and southwestern coasts, with a risk of hail and thunder. Very cold, with widespread frost. Min. minus 2 to plus 2 Celsius, coldest in the eastern half of the country. Fog patches possible also.

Thursday: Early indications suggest that Thursday will be mainly dry, with sunny spells, but cloud will increase gradually. Very cold, in light northerly breezes. Maximum temperatures 4 to 7 Celsius. Very cold overnight, with a risk of sharp frost where breaks in cloud occur, especially in the north. Min. minus 3 to plus 3 Celsius. Risk of fog also, in near calm conditions.

Friday and weekend: Early indications suggest that it will remain quite unsettled and changeable, with a good deal of cloud and some rain or sleet at times. Still quite cold, with a risk of frost at night where breaks in cloud occur.”

highdef

pad199207 wrote: »

Certainly a wintery feel to the end of Met Eireanns forecast this morning.

“Wednesday: Rain will extend gradually eastwards across the country during the morning. Brighter conditions, with sunny spells, will follow from the Atlantic during the day, but a few scattered showers will develop in Atlantic coastal areas, becoming heavier and more frequent later, with a risk of hail, mainly along west and northwest coasts. Mild at first, but it will turn gradually colder, as southerly winds veer west to northwest in direction, the winds mostly light to moderate overland. Maximum afternoon temperatures 6 to 9 Celsius
Wednesday night will be dry in most areas, with clear intervals, but scattered showers will occur, mainly along northern, western and southwestern coasts, with a risk of hail and thunder. Very cold, with widespread frost. Min. minus 2 to plus 2 Celsius, coldest in the eastern half of the country. Fog patches possible also.

Thursday: Early indications suggest that Thursday will be mainly dry, with sunny spells, but cloud will increase gradually. Very cold, in light northerly breezes. Maximum temperatures 4 to 7 Celsius. Very cold overnight, with a risk of sharp frost where breaks in cloud occur, especially in the north. Min. minus 3 to plus 3 Celsius. Risk of fog also, in near calm conditions.

Friday and weekend: Early indications suggest that it will remain quite unsettled and changeable, with a good deal of cloud and some rain or sleet at times. Still quite cold, with a risk of frost at night where breaks in cloud occur.”

Awwwww, I was all excited, awaiting the moment where I read the word "snow"in the forecast. Sad now.... lol

Cork Boy 53

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

First sunny morning in Cork since 22 Dec I reckon.

According to Met Eireann, Cork Airport has recorded 2.4 hours of sunshine in January up to last Friday. In my area we have had some some fairly long sunny spells at times since last Tuesday. No sunshine for over 2 weeks before then though.

Gonzo

horrible drizzly mucky morning here at Dunshaughlin, ground is very wet, not the sort of weather you can walk in without properly wrapping up to stay dry.

Gonzo

Yesterday I posted an Ensemble run for Dunshaughlin and it showed a large variation in outcomes after next weekend in terms of temperature.

Today the run looks to be getting towards more agreement of staying cold from the 18th of January, with fewer milder runs, definitely a step in the right direction, but still not showing anything that is really cold, however still cold enough for wintry precipitation, perhaps some wet snow at times.

the attached image shows yesterday's ensemble run at the top for reference and todays run underneath it.

Oscar Bravo

Gerry said schleet on the farming forecast . its happening!

fryup

fryup wrote: »

yep, there nothing to talk about to strangers while you're walking the dog or down the shops makes half-talk very difficult

km79 wrote: »

It's nice to be able to walk the dog and walk to the shops though....do a bit of outside work......dry clothes outside.......not be burning copious amounts of fossil fuels .......I'm loving it
Relativelly mild and dry. Winter heaven

shut up

Little snowy old me

The RTE farming forecast was hardly indicative of an upcoming cold spell. Now I'm not to upset with the current weather as the mildness and calm conditions makes life a lot easier and safer for older people, farmers, outdoor workers, pedestrians and cyclists etc so it's not all bad. But a few days of good deep cold and heavy frost with some snow would be lovely before the end of February. After that it's wasted, and while last March was epic in some areas, the effects of the longer days and strengthening sun took the real deep freeze feel from things. I recall whilst the snow was deep, there was dripping sounds of the thaw ongoing all the time.

harr

Just had a quick sleet shower here in Laois

Muckka

A day for the DVD in Clare.
Damp, windy and choppy out at sea.
Plenty of rabbits in Liscannor bay
White Tails everywhere

highdef

harr wrote: »

Just had a quick sleet shower here in Laois

Unless you're taking the piss, then you most certainly did not have a sleet shower as temperatures are in double figures at most synoptic stations around the country. It's actually a very very mild day out there.

JCX BXC

Only out of bed now. Been awake for hours but there was no advantage to getting out of bed today.

Sycamore Tree

Weirdly I am sure I saw/felt some graupel in a tiny shower 30 mins ago. Near Oughterard, Galway. Is it cold enough?

Gonzo

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Weirdly I am sure I saw/felt some graupel in a tiny shower 30 mins ago. Near Oughterard, Galway. Is it cold enough?

not even close, today is/feels very mild, even in the wind. Temperatures currently 9 to 11C nationwide. Would need to be 2 or 3C for sleet.

JCX BXC

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Weirdly I am sure I saw/felt some graupel in a tiny shower 30 mins ago. Near Oughterard, Galway. Is it cold enough?

Without any massive convective showers it's certainly not (as above).

munsterlegend

Little snowy old me wrote: »

The RTE farming forecast was hardly indicative of an upcoming cold spell. Now I'm not to upset with the current weather as the mildness and calm conditions makes life a lot easier and safer for older people, farmers, outdoor workers, pedestrians and cyclists etc so it's not all bad. But a few days of good deep cold and heavy frost with some snow would be lovely before the end of February. After that it's wasted, and while last March was epic in some areas, the effects of the longer days and strengthening sun took the real deep freeze feel from things. I recall whilst the snow was deep, there was dripping sounds of the thaw ongoing all the time.

I’d say next Sunday’s one will be far more interesting from a cold/snow perspective but as to how wintry who knows.

Gonzo

This video explains what might happen over the next week, and very promising signs of cold and blocking conditions for February. An interesting watch for those interested in the potential for cold conditions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgiRGIASImQ

ninebeanrows

We are approaching a critical phase in the hunt for cold following the recent SSW.

The NWP output this week should start illustrate the impact of the SSW on the troposphere.

If by the end of the week we aren't see very nice charts - it will be a bit disappointing.

The best advice for the next few days is to be patient. If there is nothing being shown by this day next week of interest then I will grow sceptical. However, for now - I am confident and what is certain is a trend to colder conditions from Thursday on.

squarecircles

there i was in early december dreaming of an frosty cold janaury,ice days,dazzling sunshine and
snow showers.
so thats janaury done with
all thats left is february,wintry weather in march can f off.

next week looks a right pigs ear of a mess on the 12z gfs


nice and toasty on the west coast too,in double digits,plenty of pig muck ouzing in off the atlantic followed periods of cold zonality, a wintry sloppy mess

Franz Von Peppercorn

Ireland’s a bit far west alright. The U.K. is in the freezer there.

As the guys in NW say, that’s just one run. A slight movement of the cold west and we are on target.

SleetAndSnow

Good thing the GFS/P is replacing the original one, that looks a hell of a lot colder and snowier for us! And is a hell of a lot colder then the 6z aswell with parts of Scotland getting to *-10*

GFS/P 12Z:


GFS/P 6Z:

highdef

GFS(P) is still rolling out but it's looking really good. Lots of potential, even before we get into FI.

Beechwoodspark

Went for a walk earlier. Great to actually have a bit of a fresh wind out.

We had weeks of stagnant mild air and grey skies. It was so bland and boring.

Hopefully the cold front comes soon.

Cork Boy 53

JCX BXC wrote: »

Only out of bed now. Been awake for hours but there was no advantage to getting out of bed today.

Why not?