US Presidential Election 2020

Foxtrol

For those that were concerned by enthusiasm for 2020 or Biden, not only are they setting records in early voting but it is also being reflected in records in polls.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1316195240605343745?s=20

Quin_Dub

stefanovich wrote: »

It'll be interesting to compare ratings.

Foxtrol wrote: »

Interesting but I don't think anything can be taken from it though. Trump was so proud of his COVID press conference ratings despite how it was killing him in the polls. People hate watch things.

Indeed , the challenge for Trump is to understand how many are watching because the like what they hear and are considering voting for him versus those that are watching simply to see what he does?

How many people only watch the 1st few episodes of all those "search for a star" type shows because they love watching the absolute car-crashes that turn up for the open mic sessions??

Watching absolutely does not equal Supporting

Itssoeasy

I was looking at the average of polls on fivethiryeight last night and I know they are just snapshots but unless there is an almighty **** up(and given it’s the democrats it’s still likely) then joe Biden will be president. I was looking at states that republican candidates are normally ahead in and while trump is still ahead, even over the last couple of months there’s a clear narrowing between trump and biden.

The path is much clearer but also there are more paths for joe Biden. If he holds all of the state Hillary Clinton won in 2016 he’ll be 232. If he wins Florida and one of the three states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan he’s at 281. Let’s say he doesn’t win Florida and wins back the three states mentioned he’s at 278. That’s not including the other so called swing states. Trump has a narrower window but nothing is over until it’s over.

Quin_Dub

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I was looking at the average of polls on fivethiryeight last night and I know they are just snapshots but unless there is an almighty **** up(and given it’s the democrats it’s still likely) then joe Biden will be president. I was looking at states that republican candidates are normally ahead in and while trump is still ahead, even over the last couple of months there’s a clear narrowing between trump and biden.

The path is much clearer but also there are more paths for joe Biden. If he holds all of the state Hillary Clinton won in 2016 he’ll be 232. If he wins Florida and one of the three states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan he’s at 281. Let’s say he doesn’t win Florida and wins back the three states mentioned he’s at 278. That’s not including the other so called swing states. Trump has a narrower window but nothing is over until it’s over.

There's an article in todays NYT that breaks down the latest polling.

They also adjust the current polling with the variance between polling & results from 2016.

If the polling variance was the same today as it was in 2016 , they still have Biden winning 319 to 219.

If the current polling is right on the money it's Biden by 375 to 163.

letowski

Quin_Dub wrote: »

If he loses Florida it's over - It's been almost 100 years since a Republican took the Presidency without Florida.

Which makes his "Biden for PResident" tweet yesterday all the more crazy.

He needs the Retiree vote and he just took a shot at them..

He is in big trouble with the seniors in Florida. There were reports there recently coming from the Villages in central Florida almost exclusively turning Biden. They were having these massive golf buggy events there and everything. Polling is showing his vote is collapsing with the senior demographic. I'm not sure will the Cuban/Venezuelan/Nicaraguan/etc. vote compensate for that.

The was an interesting article from a Politico reporter detailing the amount of money Biden and Trump are spending on TV advertising. Biden is outspending Trump $141m to $101m, aggressively targeting the northern Florida media markets.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1316370516081545216

TomOnBoard

While it cant really be called an October 'Surprise' (as it contains mostly previously reported material) the documentary "Totally Under Control" has aired in the USA, just weeks before the Election. It is a damning indictment of the Trump Administration's Covid response and will enrage any thinking voter who sees it. It catalogues the Administration's cack-handed and self-serving approaches that visited such personal and economic devastation on the country, and highlights Trump's culpability in that.

A sad and infuriating watch, and a dreadful indictment of the Grifter in Chief and his acolytes! Shame on them!

Biden's Day 0 first act MUST be to clear out the whole den of sick, selfish and shameful vultures who have tried to feast on the people for four long years!

TomOnBoard

Fortune magazine reports that a 'Sentiment Analysis' of social media posts over the past week suggests that the reported gap between Biden and Trump may not be nearly as wide as the polls are saying. Using Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) technologies that more accurately predicted the Brexit outcome than the polls did, they looked at some 500,000 posts and, based on the language used in them, put the current state of the candidates at 50.2% Biden to 47.3% Trump.

Its an interesting read:

https://fortune.com/2020/10/14/polls-trump-biden-presidential-race-artificial-intelligence/

TomOnBoard

TomOnBoard wrote: »

Fortune magazine reports that a 'Sentiment Analysis' of social media posts over the past week suggests that the reported gap between Biden and Trump may not be nearly as wide as the polls are saying. Using Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) technologies that more accurately predicted the Brexit outcome than the polls did, they looked at some 500,000 posts and, based on the language used in them, put the current state of the candidates at 50.2% Biden to 47.3% Trump.

Its an interesting read:

https://fortune.com/2020/10/14/polls-trump-biden-presidential-race-artificial-intelligence/

Sounds like the sentiment analysis uses a model and then applies it to this scenario.

Something like 100 million americans don't vote, sure we probably do similar numbers here with 50% turnouts etc

everlast75

TomOnBoard wrote: »

While it cant really be called an October 'Surprise' (as it contains mostly previously reported material) the documentary "Totally Under Control" has aired in the USA, just weeks before the Election. It is a damning indictment of the Trump Administration's Covid response and will enrage any thinking voter who sees it. It catalogues the Administration's cack-handed and self-serving approaches that visited such personal and economic devastation on the country, and highlights Trump's culpability in that.

A sad and infuriating watch, and a dreadful indictment of the Grifter in Chief and his acolytes! Shame on them!

Biden's Day 0 first act MUST be to clear out the whole den of sick, selfish and shameful vultures who have tried to feast on the people for four long years!

You can tell how much of a nothingburger it is by the fact there are zero posters here proclaiming that this will sink Biden's chances.

It's almost like they have been promised something from Barr which never came and they can't even work up enough enthusiasm to try champion this nonsense

briany

What I'm fascinated by today is how your 'enlightened centrists' would handle a Joe Biden win. American Conservative Pundits such as Steven Crowder, Tim Pool and Ben Shapiro can talk about Democrat hypocrisy, laugh at liberal hysteria, media treatment of Trump and skewed polling, but would they go fully down the rabbithole of massive electoral fraud in the event where Trump loses and loses well? I'm of the impression that they're trying to draw in audiences who may be disillusioned with Blue politics, but aren't necessarily ready to follow Trump to every extreme he sees fit to go to.

ancapailldorcha

briany wrote: »

What I'm fascinated by today is how your 'enlightened centrists' would handle a Joe Biden win. American Conservative Pundits such as Steven Crowder, Tim Pool and Ben Shapiro can talk about Democrat hypocrisy, laugh at liberal hysteria, media treatment of Trump and skewed polling, but would they go fully down the rabbithole of massive electoral fraud in the event where Trump loses and loses well? I'm of the impression that they're trying to draw in audiences who may be disillusioned with Blue politics, but aren't necessarily ready to follow Trump to every extreme he sees fit to go to.

They will as long as their ratings hold up. The commentariat industry exists to pander to its audience. Once they sense the winds changing, they will as well.

gizmo

briany wrote: »

What I'm fascinated by today is how your 'enlightened centrists' would handle a Joe Biden win. American Conservative Pundits such as Steven Crowder, Tim Pool and Ben Shapiro can talk about Democrat hypocrisy, laugh at liberal hysteria, media treatment of Trump and skewed polling, but would they go fully down the rabbithole of massive electoral fraud in the event where Trump loses and loses well? I'm of the impression that they're trying to draw in audiences who may be disillusioned with Blue politics, but aren't necessarily ready to follow Trump to every extreme he sees fit to go to.

To be fair to Shapiro, he dealt with the dismissal of polling data and the nonsensical argument that followed quite well last time he was on Dave Rubin's show.

https://twitter.com/clipsdave/status/1287101410715119616

As for Crowder, I doubt we'll see much change, his output has been largely consistent since he originally came on the scene. Pool will, I imagine, take whatever direction will offer him the most financial compensation. He checked his integrity at the door a long time ago.

Outlaw Pete

As predicted Big Tech are doing their damnedest to influence the electorate by censoring news articles and labeling them misinformation just because they don't like the narrative. The latest is the NY Post's story about emails found on Hunter Biden's laptop which he left in for repair and which suggest that Joe may have known more about what Hunter was doing than he has previously admitted.

Twitter is also shoving this down everyone's throat's today:

Problem with the above is that Joe is on tape admitting that he pressured Ukraine officials into getting rid of Shokin. Now people may argue that he had to and that there was international support behind the US to do so, but that does not negate the fact that he had admitting to doing what Twitter are saying he didn't do. It is therefore they who are spreading misinformation.

This kind of thumb on the scale efforts of Big (or even small) Tech to sway the outcome of elections should not be tolerated, especially by companies that are happy to benefit from public platform laws which virtually make them immune to prosecution should someone say something defamatory or libelous. They want it both ways and currently they're getting it. Sadly.

These companies were happy to allow users to post articles that suggested Trump might be an agent of the Kremlin or that he might have evaded paying income tax etc and so to be suddenly pearl clutching about narratives which may not be true is a bit rich and just screams what has been said all along: that these tech companies are abusing their positions and need to be reigned in.

Nothing at all wrong with having a standard when it comes to what they fell it is that they should allow users to post with regards to accuracy (it's needed) but there absolutely is something wrong with subjecting one side of the political aisle to a much different standard that they do the other (when it comes to the bar that must be met) particularly when that side just happens to not be the one that they themselves align with. As then they are no longer the mere unbiased neutral platform they pretend to be. They are in fact political activists and ones with zero integrity at that.


https://twitter.com/SohrabAhmari/status/1316446749729398790

Pete, it's been public knowledge for years why the prosecutor was pushed out. So trying to rewrite it into something it wasn't isn't very smart. Also the results inquiry about Hunter Biden were released weeks ago so none of this story is ringing very true.

Outlaw Pete

First of all, Mike - I addressed that in my post: There is another view to what went on and merely saying that the US had International support should not justify censorship of an opposing opinion, especially when there is information to support people holding that opposing opinion.

We have sworn testimony from Shokin saying he was investigating all kinds of corruption and cases to back it up and we also have an audio recording of Biden talking with Poroshenko where Poroshenko makes it clear that to his (and the Ukraine Government's) knowledge, Shokin had done no wrong, but the MSM media (aside from Fox) have failed to report on it.

Poroshenko: "Joe, I have a second positive news for you: Yesterday I met with the General Prosecutor Shokin and despite of the fact that we didn't have ANY corruption charges, we don't have ANY information about him doing something wrong .. I especially ask him to resign as his position as a state person .. as a finish of my meeting with him he promised me to give me the written statement of his resignation and one hour ago he bring me the written statement of his resignation.."

Biden: "Great.."

Not suggesting everyone should just accept this opposing narrative. Tackle it - but only reporting the bits of a story which suit one narrative is reprehensible, no matter which side does it. That's not news, it's propaganda.

seamus

I certainly don't agree with any assertion that "big tech" are trying to change the narrative and suppress facts.

However, there is definitely a massive drive on at the moment from the social media sites; Facebook in particular; to clean up what's being posted and remove deliberate misinformation.

They spent the last four years claiming that they were open platforms for people to express themselves, that policing the content was too difficult, that free speech was important, even if the speech was dangerous.

But now that the wind has shifted and Donnie's chances of election plummet towards nil, suddenly all of these impossible tasks are now possible. Because they are terrified - Zuck in particular - that they might be regulated and have to start reporting their earnings properly and refusing ad money from shady organisations.

Where if they can make some token effort to clean up their act, prove that they're actually the good guys on the side of truth and justice, maybe the Democrats will leave them alone.

Foxtrol

The story stinks of the most weak, desperate attempt at a made up 'October surprise' that I have ever seen, though I'm in no way surprised that the NY Post let a Hannity linked writer pen it.

As for Twitter, the rule is that they wouldn't allow images of alleged hacked or stolen materials to be spread on their site. The NY Post can cry all they want but they didn't follow these rules and were rightly blocked.

stefanovich

Foxtrol wrote: »

The story stinks of the most weak, desperate attempt at a made up 'October surprise' that I have ever seen, though I'm in no way surprised that the NY Post let a Hannity linked writer pen it.

As for Twitter, the rule is that they wouldn't allow images of alleged hacked or stolen materials to be spread on their site. The NY Post can cry all they want but they didn't follow these rules and were rightly blocked.

It wasn't hacked or stolen though. The information was acquired legally as the laptop was abandoned.

Foxtrol

stefanovich wrote: »

It wasn't hacked or stolen though. The information was acquired legally as the laptop was abandoned.

So if someone steals my laptop, drops it into a store and doesn't pick it up on time the laptop and everything on it and it becomes the property of shop and the owner can distribute it as they please?

stefanovich

Foxtrol wrote: »

So if someone steals my laptop, drops it into a store and doesn't pick it up on time the laptop and everything on it and it becomes the property of shop and the owner can distribute it as they please?

You have proof it was stolen?

In Delaware, if you leave your laptop for repair and it does not get collected within a certain period of time it becomes property of the repair shop.

VinLieger

stefanovich wrote: »

You have proof it was stolen?

In Delaware, if you leave your laptop for repair and it does not get collected within a certain period of time it becomes property of the repair shop.

Do you have proof it was abandoned? And no the word of a qanon truther, which its becoming more and more obvious the store owner is, is not enough

Also theres zero proof it belonged to Hunter Biden to begin with, the guy literally said he didnt see him and is just assuming it was him.

Itssoeasy

stefanovich wrote: »

You have proof it was stolen?

In Delaware, if you leave your laptop for repair and it does not get collected within a certain period of time it becomes property of the repair shop.

Why would anyone fly to Delaware to drop off a laptop to be fixed when presumably they could get it fixed in the state they lived in which in this case wasn’t Delaware ? Seems a bit suspect to me.

Also, the metadata doesn’t seem to add up. The dates on some files show September and October so apparently Hunter Biden(even though the owner of the store can’t say for certain it was him) at some point changed file dates on a laptop he’s nowhere near ?

Yeah it does but in any story I read last night, people in the repair business say they you wipe the thing, you don’t snoop around. The people in the repair business are taking a very dim view of that part.

stefanovich

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Why would anyone fly to Delaware to drop off a laptop to be fixed when presumably they could get it fixed in the state they lived in which in this case wasn’t Delaware ? Seems a bit suspect to me.

Also, the metadata doesn’t seem to add up. The dates on some files show September and October so apparently Hunter Biden(even though the owner of the store can’t say for certain it was him) at some point changed file dates on a laptop he’s nowhere near ?

Yeah it does but in any story I read last night, people in the repair business say they you wipe the thing, you don’t snoop around. The people in the repair business are taking a very dim view of that part.

Hunter lives in Delaware.

Foxtrol

stefanovich wrote: »

You have proof it was stolen?

In Delaware, if you leave your laptop for repair and it does not get collected within a certain period of time it becomes property of the repair shop.

The shop owner didn't own the laptop so he stole the data in it. He had no right to copy the hard drive and give it to Giuliani so it could make its way to the NY Post.

As repeatedly noted, there is absolutely no evidence that this is Hunter's laptop nor that anything in it is any way credible. It is nearly like me writing a confession to a robbery and signing it Ivanka and saying 'Look at all this evidence'.

The fact they also sat on this for so long trying to wait for the right time time is hilarious.

https://twitter.com/KT_So_It_Goes/status/1316531444945166336?s=20

Igotadose

stefanovich wrote: »

Hunter lives in Delaware.

Not in 2019: https://nypost.com/2019/12/24/hunter-biden-owns-massive-home-in-swanky-hollywood-hills-court-docs-reveal/

NY Post for the win :P

stefanovich

Igotadose wrote: »

Not in 2019: https://nypost.com/2019/12/24/hunter-biden-owns-massive-home-in-swanky-hollywood-hills-court-docs-reveal/

NY Post for the win :P

How many multi millionaires do you know of that only have one home?

Foxtrol

stefanovich wrote: »

How many multi millionaires do you know of that only have one home?

When you have to twist yourself in this many knots to make a story seem possible, not even to the bar of believable, it is usually nonsense and should be treated that way until proven otherwise.

stefanovich

Foxtrol wrote: »

I'm not defending anything, I'm pointing out how many obvious red flags there are.

If some randomer came out claiming to have a copy of Ivanka's laptop with a potentially incriminating email but kept changing his story and said he couldn't identify her yet still copied the device and chose to give it to Michael Avenatti, who then sat on it for several months until right before the election, before passing it to a Joy Reid producer to write a story in Huffington Post I'd be just as skeptical.

That is how ridiculous this story you're promoting is.

Maybe how the information came to light is questionable but the no one is disputing the content.

Outlaw Pete

Foxtrol wrote: »

As for Twitter, the rule is that they wouldn't allow images of alleged hacked or stolen materials to be spread on their site. The NY Post can cry all they want but they didn't follow these rules and were rightly blocked.

They seem okay with illegal leaks of the president’s tax returns though. Funny that.

VinLieger

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

They seem okay with illegal leaks of the president’s tax returns though. Funny that.

Trump and his supporters ie you, seemed okay with the illegal hack of the DNC emails in fact he even encouraged it, funny that?

Ohh look we can play this game forever