Brexit discussion thread IV

Capt'n Midnight

KingNerolives wrote: »

Does anyone know if the white paper will outline how farmers will be paid post brexit?

Here's a clue

Seriously I don't know where to begin on how this will affect future relations with other countries and internally.


Environment Secretary Michael Gove physically ripped up a report on Theresa May's preferred option for a new customs partnership with the EU.

This stuff is normally hidden behind the cloak of collective cabinet responsibility.

So, with Michael Gove now happy for it to be known he's "livid" about a report by a sub-committee of a sub-committee (yes, that's right), it's only adding to the sense that the prime minister is a ring master whose whip crack is being ignored.

Capt'n Midnight

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Also from the BBC today, the number of UK nationals taking out dual citizenship has soared from 1,800 in 2015 to almost 13,000 last year. The Irish figure, of course, doesn't include the rush for passports, but earlier this year, over 1,000 Britons participated in a citizenship ceremony in Killarney.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44629193

The fun bit is that Germany only offers dual nationality to other EU countries.

When Bexit happens the UK won't be an EU country any more...

ancapailldorcha

After 2 weeks off, I am frankly dismayed to see that there's been almost no progress towards any sort of consensus regarding Brexit in the Conservative Party.

Now we have the actual foreign secretary, the man who keeps on giving Boris Johnson saying "F**k Business." I would have thought an outburst like this from a senior Conservative Secretary of State and a holder of one of the great offices of state would have resulted in an instant dismissal. Alas.

The tragedy around Boris is that if he'd swung a 52% win for Remain he could have set himself up to be a very fondly remembered leader. It wouldn't have fixed any of the underlying issues which caused the Leave win but the man has shown his true colours and frankly, the fact that he is our actual Foreign Secretary is terrifying.

I thought my return would have been met with news of at lease some progress. I'm saddened but I can't say that I am surprised.

Leroy42

This is the level of the 'journalism' going on in the Brexit press in the UK.

Headline:

‘An enemy not a friend!’ Irish PM Leo Varadkar sparks fury with Brexit-bashing rant

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/981842/brexit-news-leo-Varadkar-EU-Iain-duncan-smith-theresa-may

It takes it a bit later in the article show that Leo never actually said that. It was IDS that said that in terms of how Leo was acting.

They are stoking up the Anti-EU and Anti-Irish feeling over there, clearly getting ready on who is to blame for the likely crash out.

The finish off by almost casually stating that a no deal with result in 2.5% of Ireland being forced onto the dole, not a hint of taking any responsibility for that.

Inquitus

Leroy42 wrote: »

snip

The Express has gone full monster raving Brexit for some reason, I don't even bother with it these days, not that it was ever much good.

flutered

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Here's a clue

Seriously I don't know where to begin on how this will affect future relations with other countries and internally.


Environment Secretary Michael Gove physically ripped up a report on Theresa May's preferred option for a new customs partnership with the EU.

grove is murdoch's voice at the cabinet table

Sand

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I thought my return would have been met with news of at lease some progress. I'm saddened but I can't say that I am surprised.

That was optimistic. Nothing significant regarding Brexit has occurred or developed in the last 7 months, perhaps longer.

Capt'n Midnight

flutered wrote: »

grove is murdoch's voice at the cabinet table

Definition of an Honest Politician - "One that when bought, stays bought"

I'm not even sure any of the current lot over there would meet that level.

Charles Babbage

Sand wrote: »

That was optimistic. Nothing significant regarding Brexit has occurred or developed in the last 7 months, perhaps longer.

We have had the December agreement and six and a half months of the UK pretending they didn't sign it.

Dymo

Charles Babbage wrote: »

We have had the December agreement and six and a half months of the UK pretending they didn't sign it.

And the day after David Davis claiming that the Brexit divorce agreement between Britain and the EU was a “statement of intent” rather than something legally enforceable.

Strazdas

Looks more and more like no deal. The British government are incapable of telling the public they voted for a disaster and that the best thing all round would be to cancel or delay Brexit : sooner than do that, they will the UK crash out with no deal (crazy as that sounds).

I suppose part of the problem though is they are dealing with a lot of lunatics on the Brexit side, in the cabinet and in the press and millions of the electorate.

trellheim

We have had the December agreement and six and a half months of the UK pretending they didn't sign it.

Just for balance, up thread I did post the Eu withdrawal bill section where no hard border is guaranteed.

Trasna1

Strazdas wrote: »

Looks more and more like no deal. The British government are incapable of telling the public they voted for a disaster and that the best thing all round would be to cancel or delay Brexit : sooner than do that, they will the UK crash out with no deal (crazy as that sounds).

I suppose part of the problem though is they are dealing with a lot of lunatics on the Brexit side, in the cabinet and in the press and millions of the electorate.

If they can't tell the public they made a mistake then they for sure won't have the cajones to cancel our postpone it.

Imreoir2

trellheim wrote: »

Just for balance, up thread I did post the Eu withdrawal bill section where no hard border is guaranteed.

Except that it's not though. The border is not something that exists or does not exist independantly of everything else. A hard border is the default option between two different customs areas. If the UK crashes out of the EU customs union and single market, and pursues policies that cause divergance with EU rules and regulations, then a hard border will exist by default. The UK has to pursue policies that cause divergance with EU rules if they want to sign trade deals around the world, so there will be a hard border no matter what it says in their withdrawal bill.

Imreoir2

Just in case any of us were holding out hope that the UK government would pull a rabbit out of the hat with it's Brexit white paper, "whitehall insiders" are discribing it as ‘the most ludicrous government publication since the Green Paper proposing the poll tax in 1987. No one who has written it believes it’.

Nody

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Just in case any of us were holding out hope that the UK government would pull a rabbit out of the hat with it's Brexit white paper, "whitehall insiders" are discribing it as ‘the most ludicrous government publication since the Green Paper proposing the poll tax in 1987. No one who has written it believes it’.

So Cakeism again; what a bloody surprise. You know I think I might finally have figured out the long term plan here; the whole Tory government are going to open a chain of bakeries because you can't outsource those jobs to India and are testing the recipes on the public...

Imreoir2

I considered putting money on a no-deal outcome, but there's no point, the odd's are so bad. PaddyPower has it at 1/1.

Rain Ascending

An Claidheamh wrote: »

Interesting spin from the BBC website in a series rather patronisingly and ironically titled 'reality check' about Irish - British trade, in particular Irish freight through Britain.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44657460

Smacks of sure Ireland have more to lose than Britain - they need us more than we need them.

'So while some contingency plans are already being made, it's not nearly enough to replace the trade that currently goes to or through Britain.

And that is a reminder that Ireland needs a good Brexit deal almost as much as the UK does.'


Funny the 'reality check' series don't actually have any articles on the actual feasibility of Brexit or the outlandish claims of its proposers.

It's as if they need a ..... reality check.

I can understand the annoyance at the BBC here, but if the EU is to convince the UK that it can take the hit of a no-deal Brexit then its member states need look such statistics squarely in the face and prepare for the underlying realities. This particularly applies to the rEU country with the most to loose, namely Ireland. If the Irish government is honest with itself about the potential damage and has (a) communicated that with its people and (b) taken as many mitigations as possible then the UK's leverage by threatening to walk away is minimized.

By not doing the same self-examination and communication, the UK government has already greatly weakened its own position. I've claimed here in the past that they should have put a Remainer in charge of their own no-deal planning if they wanted to be serious about this option. Only a Remainer would avoid a lot of the cognitive biases clearly shown by many Leavers and get their arms around the problem. Instead, they remain trapped by their own rhetoric that leaving the EU can't be bad and therefore truly preparing for a no-deal involves doing the impossible, namely challenging their own cherished beliefs.

Having said all that, the BBC "fact checkers" should have done a bit more work. The MV Celine is on the new Dublin-Zeebrugge route and a quick look at the schedule shows four sailings from Dublin a week. With the quoted 650 containers per sailing and assuming 45 operational weeks per year, this route addition alone can take 120,000 containers. That's the equivalent of 60% of the estimated 190,000 that currently goes to Europe via the UK land-bridge. Throw in the hinted-at extra capacity on the other direct routes to France and Spain and that suggests that we should be okay even if Dover/Channel Tunnel/etc. become completely inaccessible to Irish goods. It'll take longer to get goods to the continent mainland, but they'll reliably get there.

trellheim

if you have any strong feelings on this it may be worth putting a bet on, Betfair are offering 4 to 1 for another referendum before 1/1/2019 ( see https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit-specials )

Hurrache

So Douglas Carswell has been planning for decades on what they'll do when they leave, including the apparently simple plan of leaving the single market but keep full unrestricted access to the single market.

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1013125483008069632?s=19

There's really little else left to say at this point. Let's just get ready for them crashing out as best we can. Braindead.

Imreoir2

In the case of a no-deal Brexit, I think a campaign for unification will have to go to the top of the political adgenda.

Infini

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Just in case any of us were holding out hope that the UK government would pull a rabbit out of the hat with it's Brexit white paper, "whitehall insiders" are discribing it as ‘the most ludicrous government publication since the Green Paper proposing the poll tax in 1987. No one who has written it believes it’.

Why should it be any suprise at this point in time. They've had no credible plan since the start of this: they never intially expected to win and when they did they triggered the whole A50 with no proper planning. This whole thing is being driven by Ideological gobshytes who dont give a damn about the price or effect it will have on ordinary people. The only thing worse is the serious ignorance of sections of the English population on how bad this will backfire. It's not worth it and listening to propaganda rag's like the express or the daily fail are a recipie for disaster.

trellheim wrote: »

if you have any strong feelings on this it may be worth putting a bet on, Betfair are offering 4 to 1 for another referendum before 1/1/2019 ( see https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/brexit-specials )

I wouldn't be suprised if a 2nd referendum does happen before long. They have no plan, no hope and no way out if they don't realistically reconsider this. The Brexiteer's have been proven to be 5th column subversive's at this point they dont care how much misery and damage is caused in pursuit of their failure of an agenda. What need's to be made clear is that unless they abandon this fallacy they'll crash out into the worst kind of economic depression in decade's not to mention a massive political crisis.

If they don't abandon this their only other option would be to accept any agreement on the EU's terms without question if they dont wish to crash out hard. It would be a humiliating ultimatum for them and it would be all on their heads. Everyone outside the UK KNOW'S what will happen if they go through with this the problem is the UK is too disorganised and unwilling to admit they royally fecked up here. If they dont somehow abandon this they'll fall on their own sword and it will be only themselves to blame for it noone else.

Imreoir2 wrote: »

In the case of a no-deal Brexit, I think a campaign for unification will have to go to the top of the political adgenda.

Unification will definately become a hot topic should Britain crash out hard and especially once their funding get's butchered by London thank's to a self inflicted economic depression. The headbanger's will whinge and moan but money talks's: if people up north find themselves in a situation they generally didnt vote for and unification offer's them a serious way out (along with a possible heavy financial package from the EU to help with reunification) then people will start to seriously consider the idea. Even more moderate unionist's will have to take stock at the whole situation and ask themselves if it's worth staying in a Union with a polarised assembly and a London goverment that was happy to throw them under the bus for their own agenda.

Infini

murphaph wrote: »

The British are prepared to completely throw us under the bus. Time to batten down the hatches and do everything we can to maintain our connections with the continent.

They're think they can throw us under a bus and maybe they can cause some damage....... Our EU bus is bigger though! C_C Might damage us but it will totally wreck their's! :O

Trasna1

Infini wrote: »

They're think they can throw us under a bus and maybe they can cause some damage....... Our EU bus is bigger though! C_C Might damage us but it will totally wreck their's! :O

Might damage us? It will, and in particular agriculture and food. A no deal outcome would be a disaster for those sectors and more widely will probably be a trigger for a global recession, hitting all sectors. While I don't want to see the hard brexiteers achieve a victory in undermining a united Europe (which would have far more serious consequences down the line) by getting a soft deal so as to reduce impact on trade partners in Europe - I understand that policy comes with significant risks. We need to be fully aware of that, and willing to accept the consequences. Hard Brexit means hardship. It means job losses.

I also fear that a no deal chaotic exit would see more extreme politics become the norm in the UK and not lead a swing back to the centre. Instability can be contagious, I don't want their poison here or in Europe.

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

So Douglas Carswell has been planning for decades on what they'll do when they leave, including the apparently simple plan of leaving the single market but keep full unrestricted access to the single market.

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1013125483008069632?s=19

Its the conviction that Douglas Carswell says it with as well. They will leave the single market and will not be under any ECJ jurisdiction. They will also have unrestricted access to the single market as well as if it is the simplest and easiest thing in the world. I wish the clip was longer to see what his answer was as he started talking about Chinese goods being sold in the EU and also if the interviewer took him up on the point. My guess is his answer is that you don't have to have free movement of goods and labour to keep selling to the single market so not being in it is not a big deal. There is so much wrong with that reasoning and it is the reason why we are where we are at the moment. They are still selling the dream to those that want to listen.

Bigus

Timing is often everything in life, so if Ireland is to suffer the consequences of a hard Brexit , the current timing might just about suit An Overheating Irish economy ?

I'm not saying putting the brakes on is a good thing but if you were to choose a time to do a slow down you'd surely choose to do so when you were at full employment.

Plus British people aren't going to go without cheddar and steak overnight even if the price jumps ? It's not quite like putting off a Harley Davidson purchase for a few years.

Nody

Imreoir2 wrote: »

In the case of a no-deal Brexit, I think a campaign for unification will have to go to the top of the political adgenda.

Wrong approach; basic change management really. When you're faced with any significant change this is the curve every human goes through (at various speeds):


Hence you want to wait with the idea of unified Ireland to let the downsides really settle in as that will prepare the people for it (on both sides of the border). Also keep in mind the downsides while some will hit at midnight a lot of them will be mitigated in days or weeks and things will appear to have worked out. Hence you need to allow for a few years of things gradually getting worse every year while things prosper in Ireland before you go down that route.

Infini wrote: »

I wouldn't be suprised if a 2nd referendum does happen before long. They have no plan, no hope and no way out if they don't realistically reconsider this.

That's exactly why they will not allow a second referendum. First of all we have Theresa "I got no policy" May who already did not want the last election in charge; she's scared beyond belief of a second fiasco like that as it would cost her the PM role. Secondly you have the hardcore brexiteers like Farage et al who will not want any chance of the results being reversed by a second referendum ("The people have spoken" etc.). Third we have the whole Tory party who remembers what happened the last time they tried such a stunt and how spectacular it backfired and finally fourth you have Corbyn who don't want the results reversed nor be in charge of the crash out stopping it.

Hence I do not see a referendum being run simply because all the key players in power don't want to stop the brexit in the first place.

CelticRambler

Trasna1 wrote: »

Might damage us? It will, and in particular agriculture and food. A no deal outcome would be a disaster for those sectors ...

Not necessarily. Assume the worst case crash-out that's been described, especially the Dover-Calais meltdown. I've seen the dress rehearsal for this several times over, and yes, it is every bit as bad as described/forecast (with lorry-drivers, for example, needing treatment for heat-stroke/dehydration).

So come April 2019 and a very real problem of getting continental meat and veg across the Channel before it rots, where are the UK supermarkets going to look for alternative supplies? Well, Ireland, of course. JRM/IDS/BJ say they are definitely, under no circumstances, whatsover, not at all, ever going to put up any kind of border.

Great: for the simple reason that Ireland is right next door, has a long history and practice of feeding the Brits, speaks the same language, and has a working RoRo ferry service to ports that are not going to suffer the same fate as Dover-Folkestone, Irish suppliers will be in the best position to exploit this new "feck control, feck the price, we need to eat" access to the UK.

When it comes down to simple logisitics, Irish farmers and co-ops with food ready to deliver in 24-48 hours will have a huge advantage over any theoretical supplier of cheap Chinese or American crap.

I'll be blunt. Without an exit deal, we are ****ed.

If the UK manage to steer themselves into the rocks (as it appears they are aiming for) they will do us serious and lasting damage too.

We need them to see sense and arrive at a palatable deal. However if they do not, we need to instantly switch to a euro centric business model and unfortunately (for decades of interlinking and interdependencies, and peace!) drop as much as we can possibly afford to in terms of IRE-UK partnerships that were ultimately rooted in the single market.

Personally I have an irrational hope that the UK will revisit the single market issue but I fully accept that is irrational and nothing in today's politics backs up the idea.