Brexit discussion thread IV

Trasna1

demfad wrote: »

The only model that could keep some kind of economy afloat after a hard Brexit is the low tax low regulation one. The Billionaire class particularly the dodgier kind will make a killing. Why else do they want to be outside Customs and Regulatory Unions?

Look at top Brexiteer Lord Ashcroft suggesting uber dodgy Malta as a port in the storm during Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/29/lord-ashcroft-praises-malta-as-base-for-uk-business-during-brexit


As regards fluctuations in currency this wouldn't exactly be new to Brexiteers.
Farage and his chums made a killing on the night of the referendum when Farage condeded defeat twice (first was 4 minutes after polling closed) while he already knew a survation poll had leave at 52:48.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-06-25/brexit-big-short-how-pollsters-helped-hedge-funds-beat-the-crash

These guys care about controlling the rules to suit themselves. Same in the US, same in Russia.

The slogan 'take back control' is not really all about taking back control from the EU.
It is about taking any control the EU had back, and using the power to take control from the rest of the UK population to make money for themselves and their ilk.

Ashcroft wants Malta to get business because it doesn't want the big EU countries or Ireland to see a Brexit dividend.

In fairness, it's not like we Ireland has the right to be calling out any Nation on tax dodgyness

J Mysterio

ambro25 wrote: »

With apologies for the ‘pause’ in the flow of conversation, today I’ve been mulling a bit about a spat with Mrs ambro25 last night, over my cheering the Belgian goal (she’s Brit, for decades we’d been supporting the UK or France).

I’ve been trying to express to her how I feel deep down

God bless you... best of luck!

trellheim

From Tusk - summary of EUCO

On Brexit. The EU27 has taken note of what has been achieved so far. However, there is a great deal of work ahead, and the most difficult tasks are still unresolved. If we want to reach a deal in October we need quick progress. This is the last call to lay the cards on the table.

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/06/29/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-on-the-european-council-meeting-of-28-june-2018/

An Ciarraioch

trellheim wrote: »

From Tusk - summary of EUCO




http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/06/29/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-on-the-european-council-meeting-of-28-june-2018/

Laura Kuenssberg also reporting that Barnier wants to talk to the British negotiators next week.

An Ciarraioch

Foster thread fixed above.

Dymo

trellheim wrote: »

From Tusk - summary of EUCO




http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2018/06/29/remarks-by-president-donald-tusk-on-the-european-council-meeting-of-28-june-2018/

It sounded like he's telling the UK to say what their going to do or else just walk away it's getting ridiculous at this stage.

Imreoir2

Dymo wrote: »

It sounded like he's telling the UK to say what their going to do or else just walk away it's getting ridiculous at this stage.

Really, I think he is begging the UK not to come out with the same old bull**** that has already been rejected, but now in white paper format.

An Ciarraioch

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Really, I think he is begging the UK not to come out with the same old bull**** that has already been rejected, but now in white paper format.

As is Leo:

[url]ttps://mobile.twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1012697448014204929[/url]

Leroy42

Leo made the point that he would have expected the UK had a plan before the vote, but that 2 years on they still are working on a draft of it!

The clear message coming from all the EU statements, is that the UK has been dragging its feet, as not lived up to commitments in terms of timelines etc and that the EU have run out of patience.

By stating that all countries should prepare for hard brexit, they are throwing that threat straight back at the UK.

The other takeaway is that the EU leaders spent 10 hours in talks about the migration crisis and less than an hour on Brexit. What that says to me is that A) they don't see Brexit as a political issue that needs to be dealt with and they are more than happy to let Barnier and Tusk handle it whichever way they are. Its the second in particular that should concern the UK. Part of the plan was that the UK could try to divide the EU and so get others working for them. They know Ireland isn't budging (hence the thinly veiled threats) but they would have hoped others would have at least called for a deal.

It seems that, at the moment at least, the EU is aligned on the process and prepared to accept the outcome

trellheim

The other takeaway is that the EU leaders spent 10 hours in talks about the migration crisis and less than an hour on Brexit.

Migration crises has options to discuss and with Italy and the other nations getting jiggy with it some jaw-jaw is needed.

Brexit SHOULD have had options to discuss but instead its a clown car driving round and round. Most of that hour was on translating a memo "get the finger out" into 27 languages.

Imreoir2

Seemingly it took less than one minute for the 27 leaders to agree their statement on Brexit.

Infini

Dymo wrote: »

It sounded like he's telling the UK to say what their going to do or else just walk away it's getting ridiculous at this stage.

Everyone with any reasonable level of interest and knowledge knows the UK has nothing realistic to negotiate at this point. Its either accept the EU's terms or its out on your asses. At this stage it's pretty clear that it's going to be a hard brexit and on day one pretty much everything is gonna come to a halt in the UK. As for NI I dont expect there will be enough people to enforce any kind of border but goods traffic will most likely be stopped from travelling.

It will be a mess but its one the UK will pay a heavy price for because they refused to see sense.

Imreoir2

Infini wrote: »

Everyone with any reasonable level of interest and knowledge knows the UK has nothing realistic to negotiate at this point. Its either accept the EU's terms or its out on your asses. At this stage it's pretty clear that it's going to be a hard brexit and on day one pretty much everything is gonna come to a halt in the UK. As for NI I dont expect there will be enough people to enforce any kind of border but goods traffic will most likely be stopped from travelling.

It will be a mess but its one the UK will pay a heavy price for because they refused to see sense.

The border will probably be a token excersise that will be run until the UK hopefully sees sense and comes back to the table with realistic proposals.

Spanish Eyes

The hubristic idiots in the UK should have just gone for broke on day one. Instead, they have cost business a lot of money and headaches, and cost the taxpayer for setting up the Department of Brexit (who are ignored AFAIS).

So now, two years down the road and it may be crash out time. Such a waste of time and money and the resulting polarisation of people in the UK.

Don't see any benefits to Brexit for the UK myself, but Brexiteers still see no problem with a crash out. well considering the UK had no negotiating skills or prep/planning for this for over two years, I'm beginning to think it is inevitable. Sadly.

Unless someone pulls a rabbit from the bag or something.

An Claidheamh

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Laura Kuenssberg also reporting that Barnier wants to talk to the British negotiators next week.

Hopefully it will be an ultimatum.

Which would help focus the mind, grasp the nettle for both sides and trigger an election in Britain.

Also, if there is a no deal Brexit.

With no border on the British side, under WTO rules (which they don't understand) they would be open to all countries.

Ireland/EU could call the their bluff and allow an open door to Britain and essentially have it swarmed.

I was just wondering is there any precedent in history where this has happened?

An Ciarraioch

Varadkar's presser here, but also dominating UK reports:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0629/974085-brussels-summit/

McGiver

Infini wrote: »

Dymo wrote: »

It sounded like he's telling the UK to say what their going to do or else just walk away it's getting ridiculous at this stage.

It will be a mess but its one the UK will pay a heavy price for because they refused to see sense.

I don't want to sound like an alarmist or conspiracy theorist, but don't forget the UK possess nuclear weapons. I hope they won't use that as a threat, but with these Trumpist lunatics running the show - you never know. The EU will be blamed for sure.

Patser

Interesting piece here on FT, even being mentioned on BBC business section.

Davis has only met Barnier for a grand total of 4 hours this year. No wonder the EU is giving out about sluggish engagement.

https://www.ft.com/content/9e3aacf0-7b9c-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

Imreoir2

McGiver wrote: »

I don't want to sound like an alarmist or conspiracy theorist, but don't forget the UK possess nuclear weapons. I hope they won't use that as a threat, but with these Trumpist lunatics running the show - you never know. The EU will be blamed for sure.

You seem to forget that we have the FCA!

Capt'n Midnight

McGiver wrote: »

I don't want to sound like an alarmist or conspiracy theorist, but don't forget the UK possess nuclear weapons. I hope they won't use that as a threat, but with these Trumpist lunatics running the show - you never know. The EU will be blamed for sure.

It's really simple, the US won't let them. #takebackcontrol


And the US can turn off GPS, just like the EU can turn off Galileo , the Russian have Glonass and the Chinese have BeiDou.

It's one of the reasons the UK is willing to spend £5 Bn on their own gps satellite system.


And besides the French have full control of their nukes.




The UK doesn't have the upper hand in anything.

Leroy42

So Davies and his department have given a response to the request by Barnier to have a meeting on Monday.

"This is a gimmick designed for the benefit of TV cameras rather than the negotiations," the source said.

They also said

"A better approach would be to engage with our proposed solutions, and deliver on their commitment to accelerated discussions about the future - we’re publishing a White Paper and look forward to discussing it."

Apart from the fact that they claim the EU should stick to a commitment to accelerate the discussion whilst at the same time refuing to meet with them its just weird. Now I'm far from an expert on international negotiations, but what point is there is antagonising the EU the their chief negotiator? They have basically called it a PR stunt and that he has failed to do his job.

Even if that were true, even if they think it, what possibly advantage can be gained by annoying the person you need to get concessions from? I get it that most of the time they are playing to the domestic audience, but there really isn't any time for that anymore, they need to start taking this seriously.

The fact that they didn't even have the white paper ready prior to the summit shows how seriously they are taking the whole thing. It must be terribly frustrating to be part of the EU team and the likes of Leo and Tusk which need to maintain the diplomatic language but must be fed up with the whole thing at this stage.

Imreoir2

Leroy42 wrote: »

So Davies and his department have given a response to the request by Barnier to have a meeting on Monday.



They also said

Apart from the fact that they claim the EU should stick to a commitment to accelerate the discussion whilst at the same time refuing to meet with them its just weird. Now I'm far from an expert on international negotiations, but what point is there is antagonising the EU the their chief negotiator? They have basically called it a PR stunt and that he has failed to do his job.

Even if that were true, even if they think it, what possibly advantage can be gained by annoying the person you need to get concessions from? I get it that most of the time they are playing to the domestic audience, but there really isn't any time for that anymore, they need to start taking this seriously.

The fact that they didn't even have the white paper ready prior to the summit shows how seriously they are taking the whole thing. It must be terribly frustrating to be part of the EU team and the likes of Leo and Tusk which need to maintain the diplomatic language but must be fed up with the whole thing at this stage.

Right, looks like the talks are going to break down before the white paper is published then.

Edit: BBC reporting that a request for talks next week had been rejected by UK in private, so Barnier repeated the request in front of ceamras at the summit. Explains the gimmick accusation from Davis, I guess.

Capt'n Midnight

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

If the UK crashes out, it will cost everyone in the EU cash money. I see no reason why the EU should allow the worst, most expensive Brexit - an uncontrolled crashout, if the alternative is simply to extend current arrangements and smooth out the transition so that it costs the EU less and does less damage to the EU.

You're asking the EU to give up it's principles for a couple of quid ?


For starters Sterling is worth less that it used to be and Brexit hasn't happened yet.

Most of the trade is two way, and tariffs will offset taxes.

The haves in the UK will still buy BMW's and the have-nots won't.


The polls say that we'd pay an extra few billion a year to fund NI , that and our history would suggest that we'd take some hardship rather than roll over for the benefit of the UK. Also we are a lot more self sufficient in food than they are. Gas not so much, but hopefully the weather in March will be warmer than this year , and Europe can cut off the UK too.

FrancieBrady

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Right, looks like the talks are going to break down before the white paper is published then.

That seems to be the agenda here if those remarks are correct. Or else the UK have gotten a back door open somehow and are secretly negotiating something.

Spanish Eyes

FrancieBrady wrote: »

That seems to be the agenda here if those remarks are correct. Or else the UK have gotten a back door open somehow and are secretly negotiating something.

I'm getting a spidey feeling that it's in the bag, but shush, don't tell anyone in case they all decide to leave tomorrow :eek:

I'm very confused by all this lack of planning and negotiation by the British. Must be something under the surface. But maybe not and they really are just totally incompetent hubristic fools. Time will tell.

Inquitus

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I'm getting a spidey feeling that it's in the bag, but shush, don't tell anyone in case they all decide to leave tomorrow :eek:

I'm very confused by all this lack of planning and negotiation by the British. Must be something under the surface. But maybe not and they really are just totally incompetent hubristic fools. Time will tell.

That's the nub of it, maybe add divided in between totally and incompetent!

Capt'n Midnight

A reminder that Brexit hasn't happened yet.

HP Ink's UK profits tumble nearly 85% – of course Brexit to blame

HP UK was estimated to have put its price up by 30 per cent since the Brexit vote, as of September last year.

dresden8

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Come February 2019, the UK can either ask for Article 50 to be extended or sign whatever Canada type exit deal the EU puts on the table. Which of those will be easier for Parliament to swallow?

What they can't do is what people seem to think will happen by default - crash out with no deal. No planes in the air. No UK drivers allowed to drive on the Continent. There will be no food on shelves within a week, no drugs in hospitals within a fortnight. No fuel on forecourts.

Food riots. Army on the streets keeping rioters away from Westminster.

We are talking scenes from a failed 3rd world state, in London. It is out of the question.

Maybe it is more in the British Government's responsibilities to stop that happening, not Dublin, Berlin or anywhere else.

Sky News will be happy, will make excellent television.

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

McGiver wrote: »

I don't want to sound like an alarmist or conspiracy theorist, but don't forget the UK possess nuclear weapons. I hope they won't use that as a threat, but with these Trumpist lunatics running the show - you never know. The EU will be blamed for sure.

It's really simple, the US won't let them. #takebackcontrol

And the US can turn off GPS, just like the EU can turn off Galileo , the Russian have Glonass and the Chinese have BeiDou.

It's one of the reasons the UK is willing to spend £5 Bn on their own gps satellite system.

And besides the French have full control of their nukes.

The UK doesn't have the upper hand in anything.

No, they don't that's obvious. What I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if they tried blackmailing the EU with the security card (it's started already) because they have no other cards left.

"If you don't give us the cake we'll shoot ourselves in the foot with a Trident"

An Claidheamh

Interesting spin from the BBC website in a series rather patronisingly and ironically titled 'reality check' about Irish - British trade, in particular Irish freight through Britain.


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44657460

Smacks of sure Ireland have more to lose than Britain - they need us more than we need them.

'So while some contingency plans are already being made, it's not nearly enough to replace the trade that currently goes to or through Britain.

And that is a reminder that Ireland needs a good Brexit deal almost as much as the UK does.'


Funny the 'reality check' series don't actually have any articles on the actual feasibility of Brexit or the outlandish claims of its proposers.

It's as if they need a ..... reality check.