Longshot Value Flat 2018

longshotvalue

5:35

Muntahaa strikes me as a value bet here. He had a nice run first time out and I think he will be suited by a shorter trip . He also has decent course form. 28/1 seems big for one with little to find on ratings

1 point ew 28/1 4 places paddy/Betfair/vc

longshotvalue

Ascot 4:20
Desert Encounter looks value here w/o the fav. He is sure to be ridden for a place and tried to give poets word 3lbs this year already and was only 4 lengths behind. He already has form for running above his price in a group 1 and id have him more a 12/1 shot w/o the fav here. 22/1 with hills and 20/1 with 365 is very good value.
2 Points EW w/o fav 22/1 hills 20/1 365 ¼ place 1-2

longshotvalue

Ascot 5:00
Tony Curtis sticks out here at a big price. He ran well of higher than this mark last year twice in a light season and 50/1 with 6 places looks very good for a very likely placer here. He has a tough of class and could well improve for his 2 runs this year.
2 Points ew 6 places paddy 50/1 5 places betfair

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

Just back US Navy flag now for the July Cup when he burns out the fuel tomorrow, i saw 25/1, he won’t be winning tomorrow.

What happened today that saw his price slashed?

madmoose

TheTorment wrote: »

madmoose wrote: »

Just back US Navy flag now for the July Cup when he burns out the fuel tomorrow, i saw 25/1, he won’t be winning tomorrow.

What happened today that saw his price slashed?

Burned along for 6f before fading

kiers47

madmoose wrote: »

Burned along for 6f before fading

I've said it a bunch of times on here that I don't think he stays but he had no chance today. I'm not sure if that was Ryan's doing or the horse.

He'd have won the Jersey tomorrow eased down.

madmoose

madmoose wrote: »

Burned along for 6f before fading

Hes best price 16's and PP go 12's for the July Cup

Peintre Celebre

aidankkk wrote: »

Ascot 4:20
Desert Encounter looks value here w/o the fav. He is sure to be ridden for a place and tried to give poets word 3lbs this year already and was only 4 lengths behind. He already has form for running above his price in a group 1 and id have him more a 12/1 shot w/o the fav here. 22/1 with hills and 20/1 with 365 is very good value.
2 Points EW w/o fav 22/1 hills 20/1 365 ¼ place 1-2

Hills dont do e w without the fav

longshotvalue

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Hills dont do e w without the fav

Didn't realise . I backed it ew with 365.

longshotvalue

3:05
Drapers Guild looks the better of the 2 last time out when 2nd to Southern France. I think another step up in trip will suit and 33/1 is the price I wanted to get involved in. Southern France is only 5/1 and the difference it just to great.
1 Point EW 33/1 ¼ place 365 33/1 1/5th elsewhere.

longshotvalue

3:40
Unforgettable Filly looks the clear value here. She ran well in the 1000 Guineas last year and won twice after. She fell away in her last 2 runs last year but if she is back to form there isn’t that much between her and the likes of Urban Fox who is a much shorter price.33/1 is value
1 Point EW 33/1 ¼ place 365 33/1 1/5th generally
5:30
Expert Eye is worth taking a chance here at 14/1. He is 3 out of 5 with decent runs and his 2 blowouts have been in group 1s. I wouldn’t be writing him off yet and todays trip should suit him. I’m also taking a small flyer on Madeline, who is a speedy filly and this trip and ground should really suit here. She was poor last time but the race couldn’t have a panned out any worse for her.
1 Point win 14/1 Generally Expert Eye
1 Point EW 80/1 Madeline 5 places Sky 80/1 4 places Generally

4068ac1elhodqr

aidankkk wrote: »

Ascot 5:00
Tony Curtis sticks out here at a big price. He ran well of higher than this mark last year twice in a light season and 50/1 with 6 places looks very good for a very likely placer here. He has a tough of class and could well improve for his 2 runs this year.
2 Points ew 6 places paddy 50/1 5 places betfair

7 places with Sky, also worth consideration, but @41.

Ideally should've combined any selections with Ronnie (1stGS @3) in Porgugal v Morocco earlier today at 1pm, he scored within just 4mins, which was inevitable considering his hat-trick in the previous game.

Safer e/w acca builder option, well priced for 7pl might be Raising Sand @17.

Bozo Skeleton

Great shout on Expert Eye Aidan. Saved the day!

longshotvalue

4:20

Mount Moriah is very close to the rest of this field apart from the top 3 here and has very good course form behind the fav . 66/1 is the price I was looking for . We will need 1 of the 3 to run below form but are getting the price for the risk .

1 point ew 66/1 1/4 place 365 1/5th elsewhere

longshotvalue

5:00

Petrus looks value here . He has some classy form and ran a nice race behind Without Parole at Sandown . 66/1 with 6 places strikes me as decent value

1 point ew 66/1 6 places lads/boyle/coral/888

longshotvalue

3:40 Ascot
Actress is one of my horses to follow this year. It was costly for me to be in the air when she won 2 weeks ago but seems to be coming to the boil nicely. I have to have a small EW bet here just in case.
50/1 4 place 3564 ¼ place 1/5 place generally

longshotvalue

5:00
Wisdom Mind seems to be an improving filly. She hasn’t had a great deal of luck in her last 2 runes but is certainly on a workable mark. She seems very likely to place here.
1 Point EW 25/1 6 places paddy/sky

longshotvalue

Ascot 5:00
Sir Robert Cheval was an improving sprinter at the end of last year. He has a very decent record at Ascot and a good record fresh. He is trained by a sprint specialist and to day has to have been the plan. He’s worth a shot at 50/1.
1 Point EW 50/1 6 places lads/paddy/coral
3:05
Idaho gets his perfect conditions here today and 5/1 is to big in this race. He is against an quickly improving horse but the fav will need to have improved again.
2 Points win 5/1 generally

5:35
Nearly Caught looks the clear second fav here. I don’t think Count Octave will stay and in reality this is at best a 6 horses race. In that context the 12/1 about Nearly Caught is very good value. He does have to concede 5lbs and its only this fact that is making this not the bet of the year so far. Still he has a great chance.
2 Points win 12/1 generally

longshotvalue

Ascot 5:00

Sir Robert Cheval was an improving sprinter at the end of last year. He has a very decent record at Ascot and a good record fresh. He is trained by a sprint specialist and to day has to have been the plan. He’s worth a shot at 50/1.

1 Point EW 50/1 6 places lads/paddy/coral

3:05

Idaho gets his perfect conditions here today and 5/1 is to big in this race. He is against an quickly improving horse but the fav will need to have improved again.


2 Points win 5/1 generally

5:35


Nearly Caught looks the clear second fav here. I don’t think Count Octave will stay and in reality this is at best a 6 horses race. In that context the 12/1 about Nearly Caught is very good value. He does have to concede 5lbs and its only this fact that is making this not the bet of the year so far. Still he has a great chance.


2 Points win 12/1 generally

longshotvalue

Ascot 5:00
Sir Robert Cheval was an improving sprinter at the end of last year. He has a very decent record at Ascot and a good record fresh. He is trained by a sprint specialist and to day has to have been the plan. He’s worth a shot at 50/1.
1 Point EW 50/1 6 places lads/paddy/coral
3:05
Idaho gets his perfect conditions here today and 5/1 is to big in this race. He is against an quickly improving horse but the fav will need to have improved again.
2 Points win 5/1 generally

5:35
Nearly Caught looks the clear second fav here. I don’t think Count Octave will stay and in reality this is at best a 6 horses race. In that context the 12/1 about Nearly Caught is very good value. He does have to concede 5lbs and its only this fact that is making this not the bet of the year so far. Still he has a great chance.
2 Points win 12/1 generally

longshotvalue

Ascot 5:00
If there is a potential Group horse in here, it might just be Tis Marvellous. He looked a very good 3yo sprinter last year and ran well in the Commonwealth. He was poor in his second run in Mayden but improved on his first run back this year. He is certainly here on a good mark on last years form and should be improving as he’s only 4. 20/1 looks value
2 Points win 20/1 Generally

Bozo Skeleton

Boards site was down for me earlier on, couldn't get on to threads. Don't know if it was the same for others.

abarkie

Bozo Skeleton wrote: »

Boards site was down for me earlier on, couldn't get on to threads. Don't know if it was the same for others.

Same here

BumperD

Yep was down possibly a dos attack

Fanny Wank

Pity I told everyone who would listen to have the lot on Bacchus. Couldn't post it here

abarkie

Fanny **** wrote: »

Pity I told everyone who would listen to have the lot on Bacchus. Couldn't post it here

Wrong thread?

Isn't your after timing thread here?

After time Ansell

Fanny Wank

abarkie wrote: »

Wrong thread?

Isn't your after timing thread here?

After time Ansell

Always happens. If it's not my internet acting up it's boards acting up

Just not fair

abarkie

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Draycott Place 12/1 winner, crikey. You are on a roll Aidan.

I will remove it from the tracker after not backing it again :mad:

longshotvalue

I’m going to be changing the way i’m putting up selections from tomorrow, and try my hand and the lower priced end of the mark for a decent period of time. Its doesn’t mean there wont be any longshots as there will still be the odd standout ones when the price warrants it. I think its more difficult to make a profit at shorter prices but i want to give it a shot and see what happens. Follow at you peril. I intend to go mostly with twitter as there i can post selections very close to the off if required

Irish Derby 5:15

I pretty annoyed as I’ve had The Pentagon on my mind for this all week and the price is on the slide downwards there now. I think he is among the best of Ballydoyles 3yo’s and although he didn’t really show it in the Epson Derby i think he could well improve a fair amount here today. This track and ground will be right up his street and I fully expect him to be in the 3. We may just take what remains of the 25/1 EW sooner rather than later.

2.5 pts EW 25/1 lads/hill/coral/sporting

longshotvalue

Newcastle 2:05

Predictably I like the 2 big outsiders of the field here. Clever Cookie got no luck in running last year in this and i think if he can get over his draw he can get involved here of this mark. Arch Villain has a remarkable record fresh  011214 and there is every chance he can get involved here at a huge price. He was a very good 4th in last years Ebor which has worked out well, again of a break. 66/1 with 5 places is easily enough to justify the risk.

1 Point EW Clever Cookie 50/1 5 places lads/888 440/1 5 places generally

1 Point EW Arch Villain 66/1 5 places paddy/betfair/888