Longshot Value Flat 2018

longshotvalue

2000 Guineas Ante Post

I think U S Navy Flag was the best 2 year old last year. His win in the Dewhurst was outstanding and it’s an easy pick to go for him at 20/1 for the 2000. The ground will more than likely be good, we can easily forget his seasonal opener on heavy ground and even that will put him right for the big day. In fact I think he is a horse that needs to be ready early to take advantage of his experience over other less experienced colts. 20/1 is massive.


2 Points win 20/1 paddy/sky/betfair/boyles

kfallon

Good to soft in last 2 or 3 furlongs currently and 30 to 40mm of rain forecast by Wed. There is even a weather warning so the anticipated good ground may not materialise

US Navy Flag is a NR now

Bozo Skeleton

TheTorment wrote: »

US Navy Flag is a NR now

I blew a half point each way on Murillo after this at 50 -1 My head tells me it's on pace making duty though.

Kauto

Bozo Skeleton wrote: »

I blew a half point each way on Murillo after this at 50 -1 My head tells me it's on pace making duty though.

Your head would be right!

longshotvalue

3:35 Newmarket
This looks a poor enough 2000, and I think the 2 main AOB hopes have to many negatives for the price. I do like Murrillo as a horse. He looked green last year but still has some very good form. The better ground here will certainly give him a better chance and I wouldn’t be surprised if he could get involved here. We are of course betting on that he isn’t a pure pacemaker but were getting enough of a price to factor that in.
1 Point EW 50/1 4 places paddy/betfair/lads
2:20 Newmarket
This looks a very poor renewal and on form alone Mirza has as good a chance as any of these. He is 11 but was near top form last year. He has also performed well in most of his first time out races. 25/1 is too big in a race where most of them are about the same standard. We’ll have a bet w/o the fav here as well just in case he runs to his mark.
1 Point win 25/1 Generally
1 Point win 16/1 w/o Havana grey 365/hills
2:55 Newmarket
I don’t think Defoe has really beaten anything of note and it looks entirely possible that Count Octave is a better horse. His run in a top-class Ledger last year where he didn’t really stay in the softer ground really looks good in the context of this race and I can’t have the difference in price.
2 Points win 13/2 Vario

longshotvalue

3:55 Uttoxeter
Doesn’t American just win here. He has a huge amount in hand and I don’t think he would be going here without being in form. His rider has a great strike rate for the trainer, and I just think he is far too classy for a race like this. I’m also pretty sure the good/soft will suite him.
2 Points win 5/1 generally

longshotvalue

1:50 Newmarket
Battle of Marathon has been in fine form on the All Weather will have a bit in hand on a few of these fitness wise and is capable of a mark of 100 if everything goes right for him. 66/1 is worth the risk
1 Point EW 66/1 various

Justin10

aidankkk wrote: »

3:55 Uttoxeter
Doesn’t American just win here. He has a huge amount in hand and I don’t think he would be going here without being in form. His rider has a great strike rate for the trainer, and I just think he is far too classy for a race like this. I’m also pretty sure the good/soft will suite him.
2 Points win 5/1 generally

Non runner now unfortunately

longshotvalue

3:35 Newmarket
IF we ignore Madeline’s run in the Breeders Cup where she met all kinds of trouble in running, I think she could be in with a small squeak here. Her 3rd behind Clemmie, and Different League could be some of the best form on offer here, and in that I think she may be better over this trip. 80/1 with 4 places Is huge.
2 Points EW 80/1 4 places Paddy/lads/fred/tote

longshotvalue

2:55 Newmarket
It looks a bit early to write off Tis Marvellous. He ran well first time out in Mayden and if we forgive him his second run there he stands a chance here of 100. 33/1 is too big for a horse with plenty of potential still.
1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

longshotvalue

Chester Vase 3:35
Everything has its price and even though he is drawn wide and had a poor run first time out this season, Vent De Force has plenty of form over the last few years which will give him a shout here of a mark of 100 and a price of 66/1. The Positives outweigh the negatives at that price. There wouldn’t be a lot between him and the likes of Fun Mac who is only 12/1.
1 Point EW 66/1 5 places VC/Paddy

longshotvalue

Ascot 4:00
Masham Star looks a good start in trying to find value here. He is on a very good mark and if we ignore his last run he is well capable of getting involved here at a big price. He has plenty of very good handicap form of marks in or around 100 to make his mark of 88 today very interesting. 33/1 is value. In order to go for one on each side in having a stab at Mr Scaramanga at a huge price drawn 1. He has been in good form this year on the all-weather easily running to his mark here. I wouldn’t be too surprised if he reproduced some decent course form here.
2 Points EW 33/1 6 places Masham Star Paddy/sky/lads/coral
1 Point EW 50/1 6 places Mr Scaramanga Paddy/lads/coral

longshotvalue

Haydock 2:00
Viconte Du Noyer just can’t be ignored here of a very low hurdles mark. Especially since he came back to form a bit last time at punchestown. He is totally unexposed over hurdles at this trip and he certainly stays this far over fences. 22/1 is easily worth the risk here.
2 Points win 22/1 365/sky/betway/vc

longshotvalue

Longchamp 2:35
I’m not often this surprised to see a price, but I fell of my seat when I saw that Us Navy Flag was 10/1 for the French 2000. The Ground is decent over a fast mile. It think its tailor made for him . I’m not that convinced with the French Opposition, and we can totally write off his seasonal opener in heavy group. We won’t see a better 10/1 shot all year, there is a decent chance he never see another horse.
3 Points win 10/1 paddy/betfair

Cherry_Cola

5th after a promising race.

longshotvalue

2:55
Danzeno is fit from running in Meyden and showed up well last time out when running to a mark better than his 102 here. Anytime he has come down to around this mark he has been competitive in handicaps and i cant see anything that changes that now. To me he looks to have a class advantage here. He actually seems like the most likely winner and is value at 12/1 .
2 Points win 12/1 Generally

longshotvalue

5:35
Ghayyar looks a decent middle distance prospect when he won his maiden in Newmarket at 2. He has been a disappointment since really, but has changed stables to a trainer who goes well here, and did catch the eye a bit first time out this year on unsuitable soft ground. This ground and trip could well bring a bit of improvement and claw back some untapped potential. He’s easily worth the risk at 66/1
1 Point EW 66/1 Generally

ANDREWMUFC

SellingAllTheTimes in the last at York.

50/1, ew chance

longshotvalue

3:40 Newbury.
War Decree although at times looking like a bit of a stayer, in my mind will be far more suited to this fast 1 mile of fast ground that anything he has raced on since he was a 2yo. He has some reasonable form but is relatively unexposed over this trip and I think 66/1 is decent value. The market seems all wrong to me and I’d love to see Lancaster Bomber win but I’d have been hoping for a bigger price.
1 Point EW 66/1 4 Places paddy VC

longshotvalue

Auteuil 3:15
I've had a look at the last 2 running's of this and the winner of both of these So French won them pretty easily, and beat most of these running today. He has had a significant injury and is back here under a cloud. 3m6furlongs on Good-Soft ground in my mind is exactly what Djakadam wants. He stays forever but probably doesn't really have a finishing kick over any trip. The way these races are run i don't think he will need it, as his cruising speed may well be too much for most of these. I went through every horse with a chance to find some collateral form and eventually found in the the name of Alary. French chasers have always been behind the British and Irish ones in my opinion. There is some odd fences but nothing to silly, and Djakadam is a superb jumper in the main. Heart ruling head but so be it.
2 Points win 8/1 paddy/betfair/lads and others

longshotvalue

6:00

Golden Nectar was improving this year until he stepped up in trip and didn’t stay last time out. He is still an relatively unexposed horse and of a mark of 70 here is certainly of interest at 50/1 and 4 places.

1 Point EW 50/1 4 places lads/ betway/betfred

Nulty

You should update this intermittently with pnl. Makes it easier to follow from a distance.

longshotvalue

Nulty wrote: »

You should update this intermittently with pnl. Makes it easier to follow from a distance.

Easy in this tread . All losers so far .

Mr_Roger_Bongos

Nulty wrote: »

You should update this intermittently with pnl. Makes it easier to follow from a distance.

If you were to make a decision from a distance based on this thread alone, it would be the wrong one.

thesandeman

Going by Aidan's history, I've no problem waiting.

bladespin

aidankkk wrote: »

Easy in this tread . All losers so far .

Keeping faith, the long ones are the best.:D

longshotvalue

York 3:40
Goldream showed plenty of form last year to indicate that a mark of 103 is well within his grasp. I’m pretty sure he will get close here at a big price after a reasonable pipe opener this year. 20/1 is value
1 Point win 22/1 sky/coral/vc 30 betfair
Haydock 4:00
Washington DC is going to get his perfect race here. They will be breaking records here out of the gate and he looks very likely to pick up the pieces. I don’t think there is any point taking on the rocket ship Battaash so well go for a 10/1 win bet w/o the fav.
1 Point win w/o FAV 10/1 365/sky/coral
Curragh 1000 Guineas Sunday
Alpha Centuari’s form last year on good ground is exceptional and she looked one of the best fillies around. She did disappoint on 2 runs on soft ground since that but I think there is a decent chance she will get back to her best here on a fast surface. 33/1 is lot bigger than I expected
2 Points EW 33/1 Betfair/Paddy/VC/888

longshotvalue

Haydock 3:25
Actress is one of my main horses to follow this year, I think she in underrated. Her 3rd splitting Sioux Nation, Us Navy Flag and Beckford is probably not much behind anything any other runner here has done. She will be suited by the decent ground and has improved on each of her runs this year. She is easily worth a shot at 40/1
2 Points EW 40/1 ¼ Place bet365 1/5th elsewhere.

longshotvalue

Haydock 2:15
Vent De Force never got into the Chester Cup at all after a slow start, but to my eye he was travelling well all the way. This is a much weaker race over a better trip with a smaller field. I think he will show up a lot better today. 33/1 is value
1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

James Bond Junior

Been following this all along and stuck to it to the tee. I have every faith in you Aidan.

Cherry_Cola

Amazing call on Washington DC! Thank you!

Bozo Skeleton

thesandeman wrote: »

Going by Aidan's history, I've no problem waiting.

And.... BOOM!

bladespin

aidankkk wrote:

Sunday Alpha Centuari’s form last year on good ground is exceptional and she looked one of the best fillies around. She did disappoint on 2 runs on soft ground since that but I think there is a decent chance she will get back to her best here on a fast surface. 33/1 is lot bigger than I expected 2 Points EW 33/1 Betfair/Paddy/VC/888

Boom!!! Well done Aidan thanks

twirlagig

aidankkk wrote: »

York 3:40
Goldream showed plenty of form last year to indicate that a mark of 103 is well within his grasp. I’m pretty sure he will get close here at a big price after a reasonable pipe opener this year. 20/1 is value
1 Point win 22/1 sky/coral/vc 30 betfair
Haydock 4:00
Washington DC is going to get his perfect race here. They will be breaking records here out of the gate and he looks very likely to pick up the pieces. I don’t think there is any point taking on the rocket ship Battaash so well go for a 10/1 win bet w/o the fav.
1 Point win w/o FAV 10/1 365/sky/coral
Curragh 1000 Guineas Sunday
Alpha Centuari’s form last year on good ground is exceptional and she looked one of the best fillies around. She did disappoint on 2 runs on soft ground since that but I think there is a decent chance she will get back to her best here on a fast surface. 33/1 is lot bigger than I expected
2 Points EW 33/1 Betfair/Paddy/VC/888

You Sir, are a Legend! Cheers Aidan

Nothingbutbets

I could kiss you Aidan!

James Bond Junior

And we are back in black!!

Stheno

Bozo Skeleton wrote: »

And.... BOOM!

wow thanks Aidan

Cherry_Cola

Aidan, you're a hero! Thanks so much!

Gringo180

Aidan you daisy i doubled up Lancaster Bomber got 11 ton back off my last tenner what a ****ing shout son best tipster ive ever seen

The Jman

Any chance you'll give an update of your pnl now?

BrianBoru00

I reckon its gone from -39 on Friday to +43 this evening...

shoxter

Thanks Aidan, those of us patient enough to stick with you reaping the rewards

longshotvalue

bladespin wrote: »

Keeping faith, the long ones are the best.:D

He Knew :eek:.. The very next post.. Phew!!

longshotvalue

Should really stick to the biggest race but feck it


Redcar 4:10

Nicholas T is back to his last winning mark & looks like this trip on this ground will suit him. He has been running well in a fair amount of good races and won on his second run last year. His first run in the Victoria Cup sixths year is probably a bit better than it looks at first glance and 7 furlongs is too short , he was also on the wrong side.


1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

longshotvalue

aidankkk wrote: »

Should really stick to the biggest race but feck it


Redcar 4:10

Nicholas T is back to his last winning mark & looks like this trip on this ground will suit him. He has been running well in a fair amount of good races and won on his second run last year. His first run in the Victoria Cup sixths year is probably a bit better than it looks at first glance and 7 furlongs is too short , he was also on the wrong side.


1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

Holy F*.. did anyone watch this, he was traveling all over everything and just could not get out in time. Ended up 2nd but feck me he had a fair bit in hand

Bozo Skeleton

aidankkk wrote: »

Should really stick to the biggest race but feck it


Redcar 4:10

Nicholas T is back to his last winning mark & looks like this trip on this ground will suit him. He has been running well in a fair amount of good races and won on his second run last year. His first run in the Victoria Cup sixths year is probably a bit better than it looks at first glance and 7 furlongs is too short , he was also on the wrong side.
O

1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

Feck it, missed this. Just saw the result. 2nd. Nice bit of place money there.
I missed it because I was packing bags, and am currently on the way to the airport. After yesterday I have a nice wad of extra cash for my holidays. Thanks a million Aidan! You legend.

Harry Palmr

Every year I think about following the summer thread and every year I don't ! :pac:

James Bond Junior

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Every year I think about following the summer thread and every year I don't ! :pac:

Not too late!

danganabu

aidankkk wrote: »

Should really stick to the biggest race but feck it


Redcar 4:10

Nicholas T is back to his last winning mark & looks like this trip on this ground will suit him. He has been running well in a fair amount of good races and won on his second run last year. His first run in the Victoria Cup sixths year is probably a bit better than it looks at first glance and 7 furlongs is too short , he was also on the wrong side.


1 Point EW 33/1 Generally

Form is temporary, class is permanent!! Top class as always Aidan.

longshotvalue

Ballinrobe 8:00
Draycott Place seems a bit overpriced here at 14/1 generally. This kind of race is tailor made for him and without any real standouts he might just have a decent chance .
1 Point win 14/1 Generally