Longshot Value Flat 2018

longshotvalue · 02-06-2018 11:35am

4:30 Derby

As Easy a value pick as you'll see in a race like The Pentagon has an ideal profile for this race, looks to me to be a certainty to be in the first 5 here, will improve for the step up in trip and is never a 50/1 Shot. Hopefully the ground doesn't get any softer

2.5 Points EW 50/1 365/hills/vc

longshotvalue · 02-06-2018 11:58am

3:45 Epson

Verne Castle interests me here at a huge price. He is on a great mark on turf compared to his AW mark. He looks to me to be suited by this fast 5 furlongs and 50/1 is value.

1 Point EW 50/1 5 places vc/paddy/betfair

idnkph · 02-06-2018 11:58am

aidankkk wrote:

As Easy a value pick as you'll see in a race like The Pentagon has an ideal profile for this race, looks to me to be a certainty to be in the first 5 here, will improve for the step up in trip and is never a 50/1 Shot. Hopefully the ground doesn't get any softer

Was thinking this too so coming from you is nice reassurance

madmoose · 02-06-2018 12:36pm

Looks too big a price for him!!

longshotvalue · 02-06-2018 1:21pm

5:50

Holiday Magic ran well in this last year of a 9lbs higher mark. He has been consistent enough and the All Weather this year and has improved in his 2 turf runs since. This could be his best trip. 40/1 looks value

1 Point EW 40/1 Generally

longshotvalue · 02-06-2018 1:29pm

5:15

Grandee looks a very strong stayer at this type of trip and has some very good form in Ireland of softer ground. He looks very likely to be involved in the business end here at a decent looking 28/1

1 Point EW 28/1 5 places sky/fred/tote/paddy

longshotvalue · 02-06-2018 1:38pm

If the above Lucky 15 comes of the'll be changing the name of the company to BetAidan instead of BetVictor.

I also took a little punt at 20/1 on any AOB 123 in the derby it seems too big a price. 1pt 20/1

Mgoraf · 02-06-2018 1:43pm

aidankkk wrote: »

If the above Lucky 15 comes of the'll be changing the name of the company to BetAidan instead of BetVictor.

I also took a little punt at 20/1 on any AOB 123 in the derby it seems too big a price. 1pt 20/1

That's 33s with powers Adian. Think that's a great bet actually

thesandeman · 02-06-2018 1:54pm

Mgoraf wrote: »

That's 33s with powers Adian. Think that's a great bet actually

Where is that on their site guys? I can't seem to find it in their specials.

Mgoraf · 02-06-2018 1:57pm

https://www.paddypower.com/horse-racing?tab=specials

In the whatoddspaddy section

thesandeman · 02-06-2018 2:17pm

Mgoraf wrote: »

https://www.paddypower.com/horse-racing?tab=specials

In the whatoddspaddy section

Ah! Got it. Cheers.

mick malones mauser · 02-06-2018 3:25pm

Boyles are 33s also on O'Brien to train first 3 home.
6/1 first 2

Cherry_Cola · 02-06-2018 5:22pm

What was the jockey on Grandee doing there, seemed very odd.

longshotvalue · 03-06-2018 1:45pm

2:35 Chantilly

Finche caught my eye last time out behind Cracksman. I think he could be an improving horse and may not be that far behind Cloth of Stars .

2 points win 20/1 generally

abarkie · 03-06-2018 2:41pm

aidankkk wrote: »

Ballinrobe 8:00
Draycott Place seems a bit overpriced here at 14/1 generally. This kind of race is tailor made for him and without any real standouts he might just have a decent chance .
1 Point win 14/1 Generally

Out tomorrow 4.00 Listowel

longshotvalue · 03-06-2018 4:57pm

abarkie wrote: »

Out tomorrow 4.00 Listowel

Wouldn't normally go back in again after a good run . Probably won't be value . We missed our chance last week .

Francie Barrett · 04-06-2018 4:14pm

Draycott Place 12/1 winner, crikey. You are on a roll Aidan.

akelly02 · 04-06-2018 4:48pm

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Draycott Place 12/1 winner, crikey. You are on a roll Aidan.

Don’t mean to be smart but he didn’t tip him today

longshotvalue · 04-06-2018 7:12pm

akelly02 wrote: »

Don’t mean to be smart but he didn’t tip him today

Even anti tipped him. That was a much harder race . Wrong by a week .

mono_mac · 08-06-2018 1:00pm

Hi guys ,do you have a WhatsApp group . Love your tips . But miss it here alot

longshotvalue · 08-06-2018 1:39pm

mono_mac wrote: »

Hi guys ,do you have a WhatsApp group . Love your tips . But miss it here alot

i tweet every tip @longshotvalue

mono_mac · 08-06-2018 4:55pm

aidankkk wrote:

i tweet every tip @longshotvalue

Cheers if ya ever set up WhatsApp let me know .thanx a mill

mono_mac · 08-06-2018 4:56pm

aidankkk wrote:

i tweet every tip @longshotvalue

Cheers if ya ever set up WhatsApp let me know .thanx a mill

mono_mac · 08-06-2018 6:45pm

aidankkk wrote:

i tweet every tip @longshotvalue

Cheers if ya ever set up WhatsApp let me know .thanx a mill

thesandeman · 08-06-2018 10:29pm

I think he wants you to set up a WhatsApp!

longshotvalue · 09-06-2018 2:20pm

2:30 Muss
Ornate has look as if this kind of mark in a handicap is well within his grasp. 20/1 looks great value and he may have a bit of a class edge here.
1 Point win 20/1 generally

longshotvalue · 16-06-2018 8:42am

1:50 York

Vent de force is turning into a cliff horse this year but has been dropped to a very nice mark after a reasonable run last time when he ran wide all the way . Trainer has family on board now in the lady riders race . Surly not ! I can't resist sticking with him at a big price in a weaker race .

2 points ew 33/1 4 places paddy 3 places generally .

longshotvalue · 18-06-2018 3:46pm

Ascot 2:30
This looks the worst Group 1 Mile race I’ve seen at Royal ascot in a long time. The Fav will probably win but certainly isn’t value here. I’m going to go with Limato , he has course form will love the firm ground and I think has a race like this in him particularly when there is nothing outstanding in it. 18/1 look enticing. If there is to be a shock Zonderland looks well placed to run a big race. He should improve for his first run this season and was improving fast last year. His form on good/firm ground is very good and 40/1 with 4 places is great value.
2 Points win Limato 18/1 fred/tote 16/1 generally
1 Point EW Zonderland 40/1 4 places vc/hills
3:05
No Needs Never looked a very good prospect when 2nd on his seasonal debut, not give a hard race, and assuming there will be considerable improvement he could well get involved here. 40/1 is easily worth the risk.
1 Point EW 40/1 4 places generally
3:40
Different League is one of my main horse to follow for Ascot and I think she will run a big race here. It looks to me as if the front 2 are a long way clear and Lady Aurelia wins in my view. Ill take a little bit of value here.
1 Point EW 25/1 lads/coral/888/sporting
4:20
US Navy Flag is improving with each run the same as he did last year. Its only my liking for the horse that make me select him above Romanised but the market is mad here, they should be 1st and 2nd fav. The best value in the race is easily Threeandfourpence at 50/1, he ran well is the irish 2000 last time when he was the first to chase Us Navy Flag and I think he is more of a 16/1 shot here so we simply have to unload on the 50/1 available.
2 Point win US Navy Flag 6/1 Generally
2 Points EW Threeandfourpence 50/1 ¼ Place 365 50/1 1/5th place generally

madmoose · 18-06-2018 9:45pm

Just back US Navy flag now for the July Cup when he burns out the fuel tomorrow, i saw 25/1, he won’t be winning tomorrow.

longshotvalue · 18-06-2018 9:46pm

5:00
I’m taking a real flyer here with the outsider of the field Battalion . As a young horse he looked a stayer in the making but has been performing well on the All Weather over 10 furlongs in the last year or 2. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he can get involved here with a quite ride. 100/1 is easily worth the risk.
1 Point EW 100/1 5 places lads/coral/betv

Longshot Value Flat 2018

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