2,000 Guineas Newmarket 5-05-2018

tryfix

Cherry_Cola wrote: »

Are PP NRNB by any chance?

I assume Kiers47 is right. It doesn't say on the page for the race, but there's a money back on losers as a free bet offer if one of O'Brien's wins the race.

diomed

My bet for the race is Headway.
I had €12 at 40s and just now had €50 at 30s.

He might struggle to get the mile, but he had pace as a 2yo.
I can find excuses for every defeat he had. :rolleyes:
He needs fast ground.

del roy

.

BumperD

Nebo 66/1 beaten a hd by the fav last season whose 15/8, I’ve no bet in race but that looks a bit of value

diomed

I don't believe in trainer form but William Haggas, trainer of my 2000 Guineas bet Headway,
yesterday had 4 x 1st; 1 x 2nd; 1 x 3rd; 1 x 5th from seven runners.

del roy

BumperD wrote: »

Nebo 66/1 beaten a hd by the fav last season whose 15/8, I’ve no bet in race but that looks a bit of value

Last year at Royal Ascot JIM CROWLEY gave this a very good write up, saying he had worked it during the weekend and he said it would win, think it was 3rd.

RivetingRoger

will do one bet and one bet only this weekend

score double between the 2 guineas

i will be as "happily" as a "saxon warrior" in a brothel with a jug of meade if it comes in

Mgoraf

Can't get away from the fav here.

This looks a really shocking year for 1 mile colts. The division seems to get worse each year.

tryfix

Mgoraf wrote: »

Can't get away from the fav here.

This looks a really shocking year for 1 mile colts. The division seems to get worse each year.

We probably won't know how good or bad this crop of milers will be until they take on the older milers in the Sussex Stakes.

On the plus side there are four+ exciting colts at the head of the market. Gustav Klimt the favourite was favourite to be Champion Juvenile before he missed the Dewhurst with a hold up.

Masar won the Craven by 9L with previous group winners left trailing in his wake.

Saxon Warrior is an unbeaten Gp 1 winner who has apparently grown into a bit of a freak over the winter.

Elarqam is an unbeaten group winning son of two Guineas winners with huge stable confidence behind him.

Expert Eye looked to be a monster Juvenile before he flopped when favourite in the Dewhurst and there's a case to be made for many of the outsiders.

As far as Guineas go that's a pretty tasty field.

I backed Masar after getting a bit distracted when going to back Saxon Warrior, but I will be backing Saxon Warrior because I can't envision Saxon Warrior not knuckling down to win any battle he's involved in. Also he's out of a Galileo mare, something that 2 of the last 4 winners also were.

diomed

My negative review

The ground at Newmarket is drying.
Earlier in the week almost all the course was good/soft.
Yesterday morning one furlong of the last ten furliongs was “good”.
In the afternoon six of those ten furlongs were good.
This morning eight of the last ten furlongs are “good” and two furlongs are good/soft.
I expect the going to be on the fast side of good.


Cardsharp - not a bad horse, 11 runs, 10 as a 2yo.
Form has tailed off after a good career start.
Probably a mile too far and will be used as a pacemaker.

Elarqam – his daddy was a Guineas winner and his mammy was a Guineas winner.
None of the other 13 in the race can claim either parent was a Guineas winner.
Elarqam’s first win was in a sire restricted race (no idea).
None of the horses he beat in his second race (Group 3) has impressed since.
Both his wins were on good/soft.
His high place in the betting is due to expectation, not form.

Expert Eye – a negative imo is he is by a sprinter who ran 16 times, 8 x 5f and 8 x 6f. His dam ran at 7f and 8f.
Other negatives are he finished last in the Dewhurst (finished lame – I don’t like excuses).
He looked really impressive winning at Goodwood last year but the 4th in that race beat him this year (journalist speak “reversed the form”).

Gustav Klimt – he is all the rage but his form is thin.
His win at Leopardstown was on heavy and the race won’t be on heavy.
Last year he won narrowly on good/firm and people we suggesting he would have won by another three lengths with a clear run.

Headway – my pick at prices between 30 and 40.
His form is below the level needed and he might find he mile too far, but if the ground is fast I think his chances improve.
He won at Lingfield recently making up 5 lengths in the last furlong, but the leader folded badly.

James Garfield – his only really bad run in 8 starts was in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (10th).
Imo the draw at Del Mar was more important than the quality of the runner:
1st Mendelssohn (drawn 1); 2nd (draw 2); 3rd (draw 8); 4th (draw 4); 5th (draw 5); 6th (draw 6).
I would also take that as a worry about Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby.
James Garfield has a Group 2 and a Group 3 win, and has run against proper size fields.

Masar – his sire and dam suggest he will be fine at a mile.
He had two eyecatching recent runs, in the Breeders Cuo Juvenile he was at the back of the 14 runner field and ran into 6th (btn 2 3/4l).
This year he won the Craven in an ordinary time but won by 9 lengths.
He was beaten a few tines by fillies early in his 2yo days, but he is a late foal and imo was conceding maturity.

Murillo – his sire Scat Daddy is immensely popular, but is a sire of sprinters.
Murillo has only run at 5f and 6f, and there must be doubts about him getting the mile.
He is probably in the race as a pacemaker to use his speed to tow Saxon Warrior into the race and burn off the speed horses.

Nebo – unusual pedigree.
His dam was a stayer running 17 times, 8 x 12f and 4 x 16f.
A very strange stat is Nebo ran in six Group 2 races in a row (and finished 2nd three times).
He was slammed in the Free Handicap at Newmarket in 2018 (6th btn 8 lengths “weakened final furlong”).
Remember it was a handicap and he was conceding 8 lbs to the winner, and 7 lbs to the 2nd, 3rd, 4th.

Raid – mentioned this week as a live outsider.
He has only had two runs, the latest in 2018 when 4th in the Greenham btn 1 ½ l “headway entering final furlong”

Rajasinghe – Coventry Stakes winner (good/firm) by a head from Headway.
The dam raced only over 5f (7 runs) and 6f (2 runs).
His sire, Choisir, ran 23 times, mostly at 5f and 6f.
I think if there is one horse in the race who will struggle with a straight mile at a high pace it is this horse.
He will need the ground to dry our considerably.

Roaring Lion - was highly fancied for the 2000 Guineas after three wins then a neck defeat to Saxon Warrior as a 2yo.
He was slammed by 9l in the Craven Stakes in 2018 by Masar.
Two worries here.
All his five career races were at 8f.
Usually a 2000 Guineas winner runs at 6f and 7f as a 2yo.
And he must have been unfit two weeks ago when losing badly, or is Maser very good, or was he just out for a training spin?

Saxon Warrior – another that raced only at 8f for three wins.
The trainer says he has grown and is now a big horse.
And all his wins were on ground softer than good.
I think he might be outpaced and will be better at a longer distance,

Tip Two Win – both the sire and dam were 5f/6f sprinters.
Tip Two Win has won at 8f, but that was in Doha.
I think his form is not good enough and he will probably also struggle to last 8f at a strong pace.


THE FANCIED THAT I DON’T FANCY
(they could win but the prices are terrible)
Gustav Klimt (3.9)
Saxon Warrior (5.7)
Elarqam (6.2)

THE FANCIED THAT I FANCY
Masar (6.4)

MY OUTSIDERS WITH A CHANCE
Headway (36)
James Garfield (27)
Nebo (170)
Raid (46)

DON’T FANCY
Cardsharp (200)
Expert Eye (10.5)
Murillo (75)
Rajasinge (75)
Roaring Lion (26)
Tip Two Win (40)

Francie Barrett

The weakness in the market for the two O'Brien horses tells its own story. I speculated that the bad weather in Ireland would set his horses back, and I reckon I might have been onto something there. Aidan has raced 10 horses in England this year, and each one of them has been beat, including a 1/7 favourite. When you look at the bullets he's got this year, I really struggle to see how he wins. Saxon Warrior clearly looks a Derby horse. I reckon that Aidan is looking at this as a prep race for the Derby, it's something he did with Australia in 2014, so the Guineas as a prep isn't as ridiculous as it sounds. The only thing that would worry me about opposing Saxon Warrior (other than the fact that I think it might be the best three year old of the season) is that in the last 3 years for the Guineas, all three winners were born in January. Saxon Warrior is the only horse in the field that was born on January, so should have a minor advantage. Gustav Klimt has had a run this year and was unconvincing even as a winner. It ran at Newmarket last year, also won, but only beat Nebo by a head.

Cardsharp, Murillo, Nebo, Headway, Raid, Rajasinghe, and Tip Two Win should not be good enough.

Roaring Lion beaten in a close run thing by Saxon Warrior, but convincingly by Masar, enough to put me off. Expert Eye's last run when beaten by James Garfield was a real put off for me. I did not like the way James Garfield looked to be staying on better than it and there were no excuses of lameness that time.

That leaves me with a shortlist of 4. Elarqam, James Garfield, Saxon Warrior, and Masar. Elarqam has won two average enough races on good to soft, but it did win them handily, and it does have the breeding to be a contender and ground that is good should be no problem. Masar smashed the field up last time out. I think the run at Meydan which was bad beyond belief can be excused. The run at Del Mar was quite promising though, even though it finished 6th, the track was tight as hell, and it looked to be finishing best of them. James Garfield ran in that same race and finished down the field, albeit from an outside draw while also being interfered with. Its performance at Newbury over 7f when it beat Expert Eye when running on was impressive though, and allays some of me fears that it will not stay the mile. If the pace is strong though, I would have fears that as a hold up horse it could struggle to stay.

Masar for me has the breeding and the form to win this one and I have invested at 5/1.

kiers47

Funny how different people price things up differently. I had Saxon Warrior at a 3-1,7-2 shot when I priced it earlier in the week. So I went in at 11-2 then Ladbrokes went 6-1 so I went in again. Had a very small bet on Expert Eye but only enough really to make a very small profit.

Will see how it goes. Great to have loads of opinions.

TheMilkyPirate

Havana grey and Defoe double my only bet tomorrow can't see either beaten but I fancy Masar in the guineas. Might have a small bet will see tomorrow.

Mgoraf

Anyone think masar last run blown out of proportion by how bad roaring lion was? He only did what He was entitled to do by beating a horse he was rated 12 pound better than by 9l in 2nd and the 4th horse a further 4l back

tryfix

Mgoraf wrote: »

Anyone think masar last run blown out of proportion by how bad roaring lion was? He only did what He was entitled to do by beating a horse he was rated 12 pound better than by 9l in 2nd and the 4th horse a further 4l back

It's hard to know whether it was just a freak race or what. For a start 12lb is just 6L over 8f so Masar improved at least 3L on his previous form. Roaring Lion was assessed to have run to about OR 99-100, a full 18+lbs below his previous run, a figure which gave White Mocha just 1lb improvement on his 2 year old form.

There is reason to believe that White Mocha's Craven Run was an improvement of more than 1lb on his previous form. The horse you dismissed behind White Mocha in 4th place was the unexposed Group 3 ( rpr 108 ) winner Glorious Journey beaten 13 1/4L. The 5th horse Just Brilliant had just one run ( a win ) previously so he can't be used as a yardstick. The 6th horse was an OR 89 horse who was beaten 20L ( 40lb ).




It's fair to take the official OR 118 given to Masar and to work from there. That's just 2lb ( 1L ) below 120 which is the kind of mark most recent Guineas winners were given.

Mgoraf

We'll see tomorrow I guess. My suspicion is that masar was just way way more forward than anything else at the start of the season having been in Dubai for the winter

kiers47

Saxon Warrior gone fav on BF in the last hour. Let's rock and roll :pac:

kiers47

I see Boyles have a special for A O Brien to train the winners of 2k 1k and Kentucky Derby. 16/1

Beware of these. I calculated it up at average to worst prices and it was working out at just over 16/1 about 17/1.
So don't get sucked in by these ****ty specials.

Kauto

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The weakness in the market for the two O'Brien horses tells its own story. I speculated that the bad weather in Ireland would set his horses back, and I reckon I might have been onto something there. Aidan has raced 10 horses in England this year, and each one of them has been beat, including a 1/7 favourite. When you look at the bullets he's got this year, I really struggle to see how he wins. Saxon Warrior clearly looks a Derby horse. I reckon that Aidan is looking at this as a prep race for the Derby, it's something he did with Australia in 2014, so the Guineas as a prep isn't as ridiculous as it sounds. The only thing that would worry me about opposing Saxon Warrior (other than the fact that I think it might be the best three year old of the season) is that in the last 3 years for the Guineas, all three winners were born in January. Saxon Warrior is the only horse in the field that was born on January, so should have a minor advantage. Gustav Klimt has had a run this year and was unconvincing even as a winner. It ran at Newmarket last year, also won, but only beat Nebo by a head.

Cardsharp, Murillo, Nebo, Headway, Raid, Rajasinghe, and Tip Two Win should not be good enough.

Roaring Lion beaten in a close run thing by Saxon Warrior, but convincingly by Masar, enough to put me off. Expert Eye's last run when beaten by James Garfield was a real put off for me. I did not like the way James Garfield looked to be staying on better than it and there were no excuses of lameness that time.

That leaves me with a shortlist of 4. Elarqam, James Garfield, Saxon Warrior, and Masar. Elarqam has won two average enough races on good to soft, but it did win them handily, and it does have the breeding to be a contender and ground that is good should be no problem. Masar smashed the field up last time out. I think the run at Meydan which was bad beyond belief can be excused. The run at Del Mar was quite promising though, even though it finished 6th, the track was tight as hell, and it looked to be finishing best of them. James Garfield ran in that same race and finished down the field, albeit from an outside draw while also being interfered with. Its performance at Newbury over 7f when it beat Expert Eye when running on was impressive though, and allays some of me fears that it will not stay the mile. If the pace is strong though, I would have fears that as a hold up horse it could struggle to stay.

Masar for me has the breeding and the form to win this one and I have invested at 5/1.

Godolphin are a joke organisation. As with every Appleby horse he was as fit as a flea when winning the craven and will only go backwards from there. This horse is as soft as putty and won't be mapped.

As for Aidan O'Briens runners in England so far this year, any that he has brought over have been woefully short fitness wise. This is no different to last year or any other year over the past 5 or 6 years. However when it comes to the 2000G he has them well tuned to do the job as evidenced over the past 10 years +

antietam

How in the name of god could the most overrated stallion in history [by the Brits] sire a Guineas winner, Frankel is akin to Scorpion one good one and the English **** themselves.If Elarqam is anywhere good enough I know nothing about racing,big time.I promise never ever to post again if this Elarqum wins.

Kauto

antietam wrote: »

How in the name of god could the most overrated stallion in history [by the Brits] sire a Guineas winner, Frankel is akin to Scorpion one good one and the English **** themselves.If Elarqam is anywhere good enough I know nothing about racing,big time.I promise never ever to post again if this Elarqum wins.

Come on 2 fu ck Elarqum!
Most of them look to be hot alright.

Slattsy

Might chance Roaring Lion each way. Looks a bit of value to me.

jj mac

Going with Saxon Warrior because you can be pretty sure he will stay the mile very well whereas some are unproven over the distance. If this turns into a battle in the last furlongs his stamina and toughness could see him home.
Best of luck to all.

diomed

Masar the new favourite.

diomed

I have a bet on Nebo at 186.
He is 106 days younger than the oldest in the race, Saxon Warrior.
Nebo led many races last year but was passed in the last few furlongs.
Perhaps he might be stronger now he is a 3yo.

kiers47

You won't see many better losing rides than James Doyle's there.
He's riding out of his skin at the moment.

Winner looks good.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

You won't see many better losing rides than James Doyle's there.
He's riding out of his skin at the moment.

Winner looks good.

I thought the winner looked a bit one paced today when the race quickened up and his superior form and staying power allowed him to eventually get away from the field.

I'd like to see Defoe go the Cup route.

Mgoraf

Yeah Defoe hit a big flat spot today. He could be excellent over 2 mile.

Those pundits are very hard to listen to, calling for him to be supplemented for the coronation cup to take on enable. Enable would beat him by a furlong over a mile and a half.

BorneTobyWilde

James Garfield 25-1 for me

I like this EW with PP at 25-1 and 4 places. It's got a lot of fight in it.
Hoping it can contest it .

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

I thought the winner looked a bit one paced today when the race quickened up and his superior form and staying power allowed him to eventually get away from the field.

I'd like to see Defoe go the Cup route.

It looked like he didn't particularly love the track and downhill section.
He probably has a fair bit to find with the top middle distance horses but he could win a group 1 if either enable or cracksman stayed at home.