2,000 Guineas Newmarket 5-05-2018

tryfix

BEST ODDS

Gustav Klimt 11/4

Masar 5/1

Saxon Warrior 6/1

Elarqam 7/1

Expert Eye 16/1

Roaring Lion 16/1

U S Navy Flag 20/1

Wooton 20/1

Headway 25/1

James Garfield 25/1

Herculean 25/1

Key Victory 28/1

Without Parole 33/1

Emaraaty 33/1

Barraquero 33/1

Glendevon 33/1

The Pentagon 33/1

Sands Of Mali 33/1

Not long to go now and you'd think that Gustav Klimt was some kind of Champion 2yo or brilliant trial winner so short is his price.

It's a pretty open 2,000 Guineas, note the fairly mean 33/1 best prices on some of those who it's almost impossible to make a case for.



The value must surely be gone on Gustav Klimt?

Masar was actually awesome in the Craven and he's a decent price if you believe that wasn't some kind of freak result.

I prefer Saxon Warrior to Gustav Klimt at the prices but the feeling I get is that they would be happy to place him in the Guineas en-route to his real target at Epsom.

Elarqam owes his short price to his pedigree more than his form. As a Mark Johnson horse he might be very hard to beat if he's in the mix at the end. Couldn't have him at that price but might nibble at him if he gets out a bit in the betting.

Expert Eye hasn't shown anything near his old form and even though he ran on okay in the end in the Greenham it's hard to make a case for him.

Roaring Lion, is he even going to turn up?

US Navy Flag makes a very tasty outsider bet.

Wooton is a nice sort, is he going for this?

Headway has been flagged up in one of the racing magazines as a horse to take a chance on in the 2,000. His trainer says that he has improved massively over the winter and he's another outsider well worth considering.

Opinions?

sdoc13

Haven't had too much of an in depth view but at the prices us navy flag stands out as value.

Francie Barrett

For me, Saxon Warrior was by far the eye-catcher of the two year old's last year. It has the form and it has the breeding to be a superstar, but whether it goes for the Derby, or the Guineas, I have no idea. I am not an expert on breeding like many of you folks are, I watch based on what I see. Personally though, I am hoping that Saxon Warrior swerves the Guineas and goes for the Derby.

With all that said, I have serious worries for the Irish trained horses in the classics this year. Whatever about the weather in England, things have been much worse here. I have doubts that the Irish contingent can be race ready in time for the Guineas, it's only this week that we've finally had weather that hasn't been diabolical.

ANDREWMUFC

Heard rumours that saxon warrior might be going for the Dante stakes instead of the Guineas hence the drift

kiers47

Saxon Warrior for me all day. I really don't think he is a derby type either. He doesn't really shape like a horse that will want 1.5 miles at this stage of his career. I might eat them words but I still think The Pentagon will prove the best of the ballydoyle crew at Epsom.
I'm not really an anti post punter as I really couldn't be bothered doing a book for a 50 runner race where 80% won't go. But he is probably the one I think is a tad overpriced at the moment.

Sounds mad but I wouldn't give up on Expert Eye either. He wasn't to bad today but he still pulled like crazy for 3 or so furlongs. Not sure I would back him but I think if he turns up he will go off shorter than the 16/1 he has gone to post the race today.

One mad one I think is Seahenge. 50/1 I've no idea what the plan is for him but he could well hit the frame if he rocks up and has some good placed form against some of the market leaders. I wouldn't be to bothered about his run on the dirt in Meydan. He will certain come on for that.

diomed

With cold weather and wet ground for the last few months you have to guess few horses have run on grass yet. Many will be not be race fit.
That nine lengths win by Masar in the Craven must be unreliable form as the time was much the same as the other races on the card
I think I will have to see the final declarations and then see the horses in the parade ring before having a bet.

piplip87

Ryan Moore Heading to Kentucky according to the boss today.

supremenovice

I cant have US Navy Flag at all. Ive been critical in the past on here about War Front 3yos in that they seem to develop early as 2yos and dont train on.
I wouldn't mind being wrong but we shall see.

ANDREWMUFC

I’m on Elarqam. Mark Johnston said he’s the best bred horse he’s ever sent to a classic and at 6/1 is good value.

Can’t have Gustav Klimt at 15/8 and the drift on saxon warrior is enough to put me off him.

antietam

I backed Gustav Klimt 20/1 to win the Derby but it seems im wrong based on AOB analysis.In my opinion, his run a Leopardstown was absolutely monstrous and he WINS the 2k.[did not back him anti for 2k].He imo is a beast and won at Leopardstown with ground wrong,fit horse,needed the race big time on paddock watch.HE WINS BIG TIME.

supremenovice

diomed wrote: »

I think I will have to see the final declarations and then see the horses in the parade ring before having a bet.

What key features do you look for when watching them in the parade ring? The quality of their coat? If they are on their toes?

diomed

supremenovice wrote: »

What key features do you look for when watching them in the parade ring? The quality of their coat? If they are on their toes?

Size. I like a miler to be a good size.
Sprinter types that might not get the mile tend to be smaller and chunky.
Is a horse calm and interested?
I don't like to see a horse jig jogging, or too attached to the handler, or needing to be steered to walk in a straight line, or with its head down.
I am terrible at judging a horse on its own, but if I see them together I can discard a few.
A shiny coat is not something I bother about, or fancy patterns brushed onto the coat by the groom.
Years ago at Phoenix Park racecourse I saw horses that looked like rats with terrible coats. That was probably a ruse by the trainer. They ran like greyhounds.

kiers47

There are early signs that Saxon Warrior is going to get backed for this. All the money slowly but surely drying up on BF. Also gone into best price 11/2. Mostly 5/1 everywhere.
I wonder what the chances are of him going off fav?

Also does Donnacha or Seamie have first choice on these? Or is it a case of Aidan or "the lads" decide? (With Ryan in The US that is)
Not really clued in on the current state of affairs there.

diomed

Gustav Klimt………….……3.85
Saxon Warrior……..….……6
Masar…………..…….….……6.6
Elarqam………………….……7.4
Expert Eye………….….……14
Without Parole……….……17
U S Navy Flag………….……21
Roaring Lion…….…….……23
James Garfield……...……42
Headway………………..……46
Tip Two Win……….….……50
Rajasinghe…………....……60
Hey Gaman…………….……65
Raid………………….....….…75
Murillo………………..….……80
Nebo…………………...……300
Cardsharp…….…….……450

supremenovice

Rajasingh is a big price for a Coventry winner turning up in the 2000. I didn't research it but I think Coventry winners have a good record in the 2000. Henrythenavigator and Dawn Approach spring to mind.

diomed

A few years back this was on the Betfair forum - 2000 Guineas trends

CRITERIA
1. Adjusted Racing Post Rating of at least 117, ten winners in ten runnings (only two above 127) - I used the RPR on the website (probably not "adjusted").
2. Sired by a horse who raced in Europe, 10/10
3. Won at least 50 per cent of career starts, 10/10
4. Started no bigger than 11-1, 10/10
5. Figured in the top six in the market, 10/10
6. Drawn in one of the three highest or four lowest stalls, 9/10 (in four years with no more than 16 runners all were drawn low) - not out yet
7. Won previous outing, 9/10
8. Won over at least seven furlongs as a juvenile, 9/10
9. By a sire who had won a European Group 1 race over at least a mile, 8/10
10. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Aidan O'Brien or Saeed Bin Suroor, 8/10
11. Making seasonal reappearance, 7/10
12. Rated within 7 lbs of the top-rated


This is how the field shape up imo

Saxon Warrior…..10
Elarqam…………......9
Gustav Klimt…...….9
Expert Eye……...….8
Masar……...…....…..8
Without Parole…...7
U S Navy Flag…....5
Hey Gaman…….....4
Tip Two Win…..…..4
Roaring Lion .…....4
Headway…….….....3
Raid………........…..3
James Garfield…..3
Murillo…….……......2
Nebo……….......…..2
Rajasinghe…….....2
Cardsharp……......0

diomed

I tried that 2000 Guineas analysis in 2007. Did it work?

Adagio 4/1 fav, was top rated with 11 points. He finished 12th of 24.
The winner, Cockney Rebel 25/1, 18th rated, got 3 points.

del roy

without parole is an non runner.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Saxon Warrior for me all day. I really don't think he is a derby type either. He doesn't really shape like a horse that will want 1.5 miles at this stage of his career. I might eat them words but I still think The Pentagon will prove the best of the ballydoyle crew at Epsom.
I'm not really an anti post punter as I really couldn't be bothered doing a book for a 50 runner race where 80% won't go. But he is probably the one I think is a tad overpriced at the moment.

Sounds mad but I wouldn't give up on Expert Eye either. He wasn't to bad today but he still pulled like crazy for 3 or so furlongs. Not sure I would back him but I think if he turns up he will go off shorter than the 16/1 he has gone to post the race today.

Saxon Warrior and Expert Eye the 2 for money so far this week.
Expert Eye a best price 12/1 with 1 or 2 firms seems to be 10/9-1 everywhere.
Saxon Warrior now best price 5/1 with mostly 9/2 the price.

I backed Saxon Warrior yesterday at 11/2 i think im gonna have a savor on Expert Eye at 12's as if they can manage to settle him he will take fair beating. They seem confident. I should have taken a go at some of the 16/1 :rolleyes:

Shemale

del roy wrote: »

without parole is an non runner.

That was always going to happen

Mgoraf

Has acclamation had a group 1 winner over a mile ? Can't have expert eye whatsoever. Think theyll eventually aim him at the commonwealth cup

supremenovice

Mgoraf wrote: »

Has acclamation had a group 1 winner over a mile ? Can't have expert eye whatsoever. Think theyll eventually aim him at the commonwealth cup

This prompted me to have a look at his progeny and it does look as though his best performers are sprinters (Marsha, Equiano, Harbour Watch). The Dam doesn't suggest any better over 1m either. One to avoid so.

diomed

TOP RATED on stats
Saxon Warrior (10): only failure “by a sire who had won a European Group 1 race over at least a mile” but his sire, Deep Impact was 3rd btn ¾ length (DSQ banned substance) in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Deep Impact won 7 JPN Gr 1 races.
Masar (9): did not win 50% of his starts (3/7); not making seasonal reappearance (actually ran twice in 2018).
Gustav Klimt (8): fails on adj RPR of at least 117 (he has 114); not making seasonal reappearance; not rated within 7 lbs of the top rated (U S Navy Flag 122).
Elarqam (8); not rated within 7 lbs of the top rated (he has 111); not trained by O’Brien, Stoute, Suroor/Appleby; not rated within 7 lbs of the top rated.
Expert Eye (7); fails on adj RPR of at least 117 (he has 116); did not win previous outing (2nd); not by a sire who had won a European Group 1 race over at least a mile; not making seasonal reappearance.

kiers47

Looks like Seamie will be on Gustav Klimpt and Donnacha on Saxon Warrior. Also some interesting comments from AOB in relation to how Saxon Warrior has developed over the winter from the RP twitter account.

diomed

Those comments about Saxon Warrior make him sound like a Grand National horse.

kiers47

diomed wrote: »

Those comments about Saxon Warrior make him sound like a Grand National horse.

Ya i did have a good laugh at that myself.

kiers47

US Navy Flag, Hey Gaman and Without Parole all came out at the 48 hour dec stage.
14 declared.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

US Navy Flag, Hey Gaman and Without Parole all came out at the 48 hour dec stage.
14 declared.

The 2,000 Guineas line-up: PP odds

Cardsharp. 66/1

Elarqam 11/2

Expert Eye 9/1

Gustav Klimt 5/2f

Headway 25/1

James Garfield 16/1

Masar 9/2

Murillo 50/1

Nebo 50/1

Raid 33/1

Rajasinghe 33/1

Roaring Lion 12/1

Saxon Warrior 9/2

Tip Two Win 25/1


https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/o-brien-triple-handed-as-field-of-14-is-declared-for-2-000-guineas/329920

tryfix

I find the jockey bookings for the O'Brien horses intriguing. Seamie is on the favourite but Donnacha is on the proven Gp1 horse who is going under the radar because we all assume that he's just using the Guineas as a prep for the Derby.

• Aidan would prefer that his son Donnacha won the race.

• Gustav Klimt has inferior form to Saxon Warrior and has found trouble in running in the past ( but he has the pace to overcome that )

• The O'Brien 2nd string often beats the first 1st string.


What are the vibes like for Saxon Warrior and will they smash into one of their 2 fancied runners tomorrow as they usually do when they are super confident?

Cherry_Cola

Are PP NRNB by any chance?

kiers47

Cherry_Cola wrote: »

Are PP NRNB by any chance?

Everywhere should be as final decs were today.

tryfix

Cherry_Cola wrote: »

Are PP NRNB by any chance?

I assume Kiers47 is right. It doesn't say on the page for the race, but there's a money back on losers as a free bet offer if one of O'Brien's wins the race.

diomed

My bet for the race is Headway.
I had €12 at 40s and just now had €50 at 30s.

He might struggle to get the mile, but he had pace as a 2yo.
I can find excuses for every defeat he had. :rolleyes:
He needs fast ground.

del roy

.

BumperD

Nebo 66/1 beaten a hd by the fav last season whose 15/8, I’ve no bet in race but that looks a bit of value

diomed

I don't believe in trainer form but William Haggas, trainer of my 2000 Guineas bet Headway,
yesterday had 4 x 1st; 1 x 2nd; 1 x 3rd; 1 x 5th from seven runners.

del roy

BumperD wrote: »

Nebo 66/1 beaten a hd by the fav last season whose 15/8, I’ve no bet in race but that looks a bit of value

Last year at Royal Ascot JIM CROWLEY gave this a very good write up, saying he had worked it during the weekend and he said it would win, think it was 3rd.

RivetingRoger

will do one bet and one bet only this weekend

score double between the 2 guineas

i will be as "happily" as a "saxon warrior" in a brothel with a jug of meade if it comes in

Mgoraf

Can't get away from the fav here.

This looks a really shocking year for 1 mile colts. The division seems to get worse each year.

tryfix

Mgoraf wrote: »

Can't get away from the fav here.

This looks a really shocking year for 1 mile colts. The division seems to get worse each year.

We probably won't know how good or bad this crop of milers will be until they take on the older milers in the Sussex Stakes.

On the plus side there are four+ exciting colts at the head of the market. Gustav Klimt the favourite was favourite to be Champion Juvenile before he missed the Dewhurst with a hold up.

Masar won the Craven by 9L with previous group winners left trailing in his wake.

Saxon Warrior is an unbeaten Gp 1 winner who has apparently grown into a bit of a freak over the winter.

Elarqam is an unbeaten group winning son of two Guineas winners with huge stable confidence behind him.

Expert Eye looked to be a monster Juvenile before he flopped when favourite in the Dewhurst and there's a case to be made for many of the outsiders.

As far as Guineas go that's a pretty tasty field.

I backed Masar after getting a bit distracted when going to back Saxon Warrior, but I will be backing Saxon Warrior because I can't envision Saxon Warrior not knuckling down to win any battle he's involved in. Also he's out of a Galileo mare, something that 2 of the last 4 winners also were.

diomed

My negative review

The ground at Newmarket is drying.
Earlier in the week almost all the course was good/soft.
Yesterday morning one furlong of the last ten furliongs was “good”.
In the afternoon six of those ten furlongs were good.
This morning eight of the last ten furlongs are “good” and two furlongs are good/soft.
I expect the going to be on the fast side of good.


Cardsharp - not a bad horse, 11 runs, 10 as a 2yo.
Form has tailed off after a good career start.
Probably a mile too far and will be used as a pacemaker.

Elarqam – his daddy was a Guineas winner and his mammy was a Guineas winner.
None of the other 13 in the race can claim either parent was a Guineas winner.
Elarqam’s first win was in a sire restricted race (no idea).
None of the horses he beat in his second race (Group 3) has impressed since.
Both his wins were on good/soft.
His high place in the betting is due to expectation, not form.

Expert Eye – a negative imo is he is by a sprinter who ran 16 times, 8 x 5f and 8 x 6f. His dam ran at 7f and 8f.
Other negatives are he finished last in the Dewhurst (finished lame – I don’t like excuses).
He looked really impressive winning at Goodwood last year but the 4th in that race beat him this year (journalist speak “reversed the form”).

Gustav Klimt – he is all the rage but his form is thin.
His win at Leopardstown was on heavy and the race won’t be on heavy.
Last year he won narrowly on good/firm and people we suggesting he would have won by another three lengths with a clear run.

Headway – my pick at prices between 30 and 40.
His form is below the level needed and he might find he mile too far, but if the ground is fast I think his chances improve.
He won at Lingfield recently making up 5 lengths in the last furlong, but the leader folded badly.

James Garfield – his only really bad run in 8 starts was in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (10th).
Imo the draw at Del Mar was more important than the quality of the runner:
1st Mendelssohn (drawn 1); 2nd (draw 2); 3rd (draw 8); 4th (draw 4); 5th (draw 5); 6th (draw 6).
I would also take that as a worry about Mendelssohn in the Kentucky Derby.
James Garfield has a Group 2 and a Group 3 win, and has run against proper size fields.

Masar – his sire and dam suggest he will be fine at a mile.
He had two eyecatching recent runs, in the Breeders Cuo Juvenile he was at the back of the 14 runner field and ran into 6th (btn 2 3/4l).
This year he won the Craven in an ordinary time but won by 9 lengths.
He was beaten a few tines by fillies early in his 2yo days, but he is a late foal and imo was conceding maturity.

Murillo – his sire Scat Daddy is immensely popular, but is a sire of sprinters.
Murillo has only run at 5f and 6f, and there must be doubts about him getting the mile.
He is probably in the race as a pacemaker to use his speed to tow Saxon Warrior into the race and burn off the speed horses.

Nebo – unusual pedigree.
His dam was a stayer running 17 times, 8 x 12f and 4 x 16f.
A very strange stat is Nebo ran in six Group 2 races in a row (and finished 2nd three times).
He was slammed in the Free Handicap at Newmarket in 2018 (6th btn 8 lengths “weakened final furlong”).
Remember it was a handicap and he was conceding 8 lbs to the winner, and 7 lbs to the 2nd, 3rd, 4th.

Raid – mentioned this week as a live outsider.
He has only had two runs, the latest in 2018 when 4th in the Greenham btn 1 ½ l “headway entering final furlong”

Rajasinghe – Coventry Stakes winner (good/firm) by a head from Headway.
The dam raced only over 5f (7 runs) and 6f (2 runs).
His sire, Choisir, ran 23 times, mostly at 5f and 6f.
I think if there is one horse in the race who will struggle with a straight mile at a high pace it is this horse.
He will need the ground to dry our considerably.

Roaring Lion - was highly fancied for the 2000 Guineas after three wins then a neck defeat to Saxon Warrior as a 2yo.
He was slammed by 9l in the Craven Stakes in 2018 by Masar.
Two worries here.
All his five career races were at 8f.
Usually a 2000 Guineas winner runs at 6f and 7f as a 2yo.
And he must have been unfit two weeks ago when losing badly, or is Maser very good, or was he just out for a training spin?

Saxon Warrior – another that raced only at 8f for three wins.
The trainer says he has grown and is now a big horse.
And all his wins were on ground softer than good.
I think he might be outpaced and will be better at a longer distance,

Tip Two Win – both the sire and dam were 5f/6f sprinters.
Tip Two Win has won at 8f, but that was in Doha.
I think his form is not good enough and he will probably also struggle to last 8f at a strong pace.


THE FANCIED THAT I DON’T FANCY
(they could win but the prices are terrible)
Gustav Klimt (3.9)
Saxon Warrior (5.7)
Elarqam (6.2)

THE FANCIED THAT I FANCY
Masar (6.4)

MY OUTSIDERS WITH A CHANCE
Headway (36)
James Garfield (27)
Nebo (170)
Raid (46)

DON’T FANCY
Cardsharp (200)
Expert Eye (10.5)
Murillo (75)
Rajasinge (75)
Roaring Lion (26)
Tip Two Win (40)

Francie Barrett

The weakness in the market for the two O'Brien horses tells its own story. I speculated that the bad weather in Ireland would set his horses back, and I reckon I might have been onto something there. Aidan has raced 10 horses in England this year, and each one of them has been beat, including a 1/7 favourite. When you look at the bullets he's got this year, I really struggle to see how he wins. Saxon Warrior clearly looks a Derby horse. I reckon that Aidan is looking at this as a prep race for the Derby, it's something he did with Australia in 2014, so the Guineas as a prep isn't as ridiculous as it sounds. The only thing that would worry me about opposing Saxon Warrior (other than the fact that I think it might be the best three year old of the season) is that in the last 3 years for the Guineas, all three winners were born in January. Saxon Warrior is the only horse in the field that was born on January, so should have a minor advantage. Gustav Klimt has had a run this year and was unconvincing even as a winner. It ran at Newmarket last year, also won, but only beat Nebo by a head.

Cardsharp, Murillo, Nebo, Headway, Raid, Rajasinghe, and Tip Two Win should not be good enough.

Roaring Lion beaten in a close run thing by Saxon Warrior, but convincingly by Masar, enough to put me off. Expert Eye's last run when beaten by James Garfield was a real put off for me. I did not like the way James Garfield looked to be staying on better than it and there were no excuses of lameness that time.

That leaves me with a shortlist of 4. Elarqam, James Garfield, Saxon Warrior, and Masar. Elarqam has won two average enough races on good to soft, but it did win them handily, and it does have the breeding to be a contender and ground that is good should be no problem. Masar smashed the field up last time out. I think the run at Meydan which was bad beyond belief can be excused. The run at Del Mar was quite promising though, even though it finished 6th, the track was tight as hell, and it looked to be finishing best of them. James Garfield ran in that same race and finished down the field, albeit from an outside draw while also being interfered with. Its performance at Newbury over 7f when it beat Expert Eye when running on was impressive though, and allays some of me fears that it will not stay the mile. If the pace is strong though, I would have fears that as a hold up horse it could struggle to stay.

Masar for me has the breeding and the form to win this one and I have invested at 5/1.

kiers47

Funny how different people price things up differently. I had Saxon Warrior at a 3-1,7-2 shot when I priced it earlier in the week. So I went in at 11-2 then Ladbrokes went 6-1 so I went in again. Had a very small bet on Expert Eye but only enough really to make a very small profit.

Will see how it goes. Great to have loads of opinions.

TheMilkyPirate

Havana grey and Defoe double my only bet tomorrow can't see either beaten but I fancy Masar in the guineas. Might have a small bet will see tomorrow.

Mgoraf

Anyone think masar last run blown out of proportion by how bad roaring lion was? He only did what He was entitled to do by beating a horse he was rated 12 pound better than by 9l in 2nd and the 4th horse a further 4l back

tryfix

Mgoraf wrote: »

Anyone think masar last run blown out of proportion by how bad roaring lion was? He only did what He was entitled to do by beating a horse he was rated 12 pound better than by 9l in 2nd and the 4th horse a further 4l back

It's hard to know whether it was just a freak race or what. For a start 12lb is just 6L over 8f so Masar improved at least 3L on his previous form. Roaring Lion was assessed to have run to about OR 99-100, a full 18+lbs below his previous run, a figure which gave White Mocha just 1lb improvement on his 2 year old form.

There is reason to believe that White Mocha's Craven Run was an improvement of more than 1lb on his previous form. The horse you dismissed behind White Mocha in 4th place was the unexposed Group 3 ( rpr 108 ) winner Glorious Journey beaten 13 1/4L. The 5th horse Just Brilliant had just one run ( a win ) previously so he can't be used as a yardstick. The 6th horse was an OR 89 horse who was beaten 20L ( 40lb ).




It's fair to take the official OR 118 given to Masar and to work from there. That's just 2lb ( 1L ) below 120 which is the kind of mark most recent Guineas winners were given.

Mgoraf

We'll see tomorrow I guess. My suspicion is that masar was just way way more forward than anything else at the start of the season having been in Dubai for the winter

kiers47

Saxon Warrior gone fav on BF in the last hour. Let's rock and roll :pac:

kiers47

I see Boyles have a special for A O Brien to train the winners of 2k 1k and Kentucky Derby. 16/1

Beware of these. I calculated it up at average to worst prices and it was working out at just over 16/1 about 17/1.
So don't get sucked in by these ****ty specials.

Kauto

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The weakness in the market for the two O'Brien horses tells its own story. I speculated that the bad weather in Ireland would set his horses back, and I reckon I might have been onto something there. Aidan has raced 10 horses in England this year, and each one of them has been beat, including a 1/7 favourite. When you look at the bullets he's got this year, I really struggle to see how he wins. Saxon Warrior clearly looks a Derby horse. I reckon that Aidan is looking at this as a prep race for the Derby, it's something he did with Australia in 2014, so the Guineas as a prep isn't as ridiculous as it sounds. The only thing that would worry me about opposing Saxon Warrior (other than the fact that I think it might be the best three year old of the season) is that in the last 3 years for the Guineas, all three winners were born in January. Saxon Warrior is the only horse in the field that was born on January, so should have a minor advantage. Gustav Klimt has had a run this year and was unconvincing even as a winner. It ran at Newmarket last year, also won, but only beat Nebo by a head.

Cardsharp, Murillo, Nebo, Headway, Raid, Rajasinghe, and Tip Two Win should not be good enough.

Roaring Lion beaten in a close run thing by Saxon Warrior, but convincingly by Masar, enough to put me off. Expert Eye's last run when beaten by James Garfield was a real put off for me. I did not like the way James Garfield looked to be staying on better than it and there were no excuses of lameness that time.

That leaves me with a shortlist of 4. Elarqam, James Garfield, Saxon Warrior, and Masar. Elarqam has won two average enough races on good to soft, but it did win them handily, and it does have the breeding to be a contender and ground that is good should be no problem. Masar smashed the field up last time out. I think the run at Meydan which was bad beyond belief can be excused. The run at Del Mar was quite promising though, even though it finished 6th, the track was tight as hell, and it looked to be finishing best of them. James Garfield ran in that same race and finished down the field, albeit from an outside draw while also being interfered with. Its performance at Newbury over 7f when it beat Expert Eye when running on was impressive though, and allays some of me fears that it will not stay the mile. If the pace is strong though, I would have fears that as a hold up horse it could struggle to stay.

Masar for me has the breeding and the form to win this one and I have invested at 5/1.

Godolphin are a joke organisation. As with every Appleby horse he was as fit as a flea when winning the craven and will only go backwards from there. This horse is as soft as putty and won't be mapped.

As for Aidan O'Briens runners in England so far this year, any that he has brought over have been woefully short fitness wise. This is no different to last year or any other year over the past 5 or 6 years. However when it comes to the 2000G he has them well tuned to do the job as evidenced over the past 10 years +

antietam

How in the name of god could the most overrated stallion in history [by the Brits] sire a Guineas winner, Frankel is akin to Scorpion one good one and the English **** themselves.If Elarqam is anywhere good enough I know nothing about racing,big time.I promise never ever to post again if this Elarqum wins.