2,000 Guineas Newmarket 5-05-2018

tryfix

BEST ODDS

Gustav Klimt 11/4

Masar 5/1

Saxon Warrior 6/1

Elarqam 7/1

Expert Eye 16/1

Roaring Lion 16/1

U S Navy Flag 20/1

Wooton 20/1

Headway 25/1

James Garfield 25/1

Herculean 25/1

Key Victory 28/1

Without Parole 33/1

Emaraaty 33/1

Barraquero 33/1

Glendevon 33/1

The Pentagon 33/1

Sands Of Mali 33/1

Not long to go now and you'd think that Gustav Klimt was some kind of Champion 2yo or brilliant trial winner so short is his price.

It's a pretty open 2,000 Guineas, note the fairly mean 33/1 best prices on some of those who it's almost impossible to make a case for.



The value must surely be gone on Gustav Klimt?

Masar was actually awesome in the Craven and he's a decent price if you believe that wasn't some kind of freak result.

I prefer Saxon Warrior to Gustav Klimt at the prices but the feeling I get is that they would be happy to place him in the Guineas en-route to his real target at Epsom.

Elarqam owes his short price to his pedigree more than his form. As a Mark Johnson horse he might be very hard to beat if he's in the mix at the end. Couldn't have him at that price but might nibble at him if he gets out a bit in the betting.

Expert Eye hasn't shown anything near his old form and even though he ran on okay in the end in the Greenham it's hard to make a case for him.

Roaring Lion, is he even going to turn up?

US Navy Flag makes a very tasty outsider bet.

Wooton is a nice sort, is he going for this?

Headway has been flagged up in one of the racing magazines as a horse to take a chance on in the 2,000. His trainer says that he has improved massively over the winter and he's another outsider well worth considering.

Opinions?

sdoc13

Haven't had too much of an in depth view but at the prices us navy flag stands out as value.

Francie Barrett

For me, Saxon Warrior was by far the eye-catcher of the two year old's last year. It has the form and it has the breeding to be a superstar, but whether it goes for the Derby, or the Guineas, I have no idea. I am not an expert on breeding like many of you folks are, I watch based on what I see. Personally though, I am hoping that Saxon Warrior swerves the Guineas and goes for the Derby.

With all that said, I have serious worries for the Irish trained horses in the classics this year. Whatever about the weather in England, things have been much worse here. I have doubts that the Irish contingent can be race ready in time for the Guineas, it's only this week that we've finally had weather that hasn't been diabolical.

ANDREWMUFC

Heard rumours that saxon warrior might be going for the Dante stakes instead of the Guineas hence the drift

kiers47

Saxon Warrior for me all day. I really don't think he is a derby type either. He doesn't really shape like a horse that will want 1.5 miles at this stage of his career. I might eat them words but I still think The Pentagon will prove the best of the ballydoyle crew at Epsom.
I'm not really an anti post punter as I really couldn't be bothered doing a book for a 50 runner race where 80% won't go. But he is probably the one I think is a tad overpriced at the moment.

Sounds mad but I wouldn't give up on Expert Eye either. He wasn't to bad today but he still pulled like crazy for 3 or so furlongs. Not sure I would back him but I think if he turns up he will go off shorter than the 16/1 he has gone to post the race today.

One mad one I think is Seahenge. 50/1 I've no idea what the plan is for him but he could well hit the frame if he rocks up and has some good placed form against some of the market leaders. I wouldn't be to bothered about his run on the dirt in Meydan. He will certain come on for that.

diomed

With cold weather and wet ground for the last few months you have to guess few horses have run on grass yet. Many will be not be race fit.
That nine lengths win by Masar in the Craven must be unreliable form as the time was much the same as the other races on the card
I think I will have to see the final declarations and then see the horses in the parade ring before having a bet.

piplip87

Ryan Moore Heading to Kentucky according to the boss today.

supremenovice

I cant have US Navy Flag at all. Ive been critical in the past on here about War Front 3yos in that they seem to develop early as 2yos and dont train on.
I wouldn't mind being wrong but we shall see.

ANDREWMUFC

I’m on Elarqam. Mark Johnston said he’s the best bred horse he’s ever sent to a classic and at 6/1 is good value.

Can’t have Gustav Klimt at 15/8 and the drift on saxon warrior is enough to put me off him.

antietam

I backed Gustav Klimt 20/1 to win the Derby but it seems im wrong based on AOB analysis.In my opinion, his run a Leopardstown was absolutely monstrous and he WINS the 2k.[did not back him anti for 2k].He imo is a beast and won at Leopardstown with ground wrong,fit horse,needed the race big time on paddock watch.HE WINS BIG TIME.

supremenovice

diomed wrote: »

I think I will have to see the final declarations and then see the horses in the parade ring before having a bet.

What key features do you look for when watching them in the parade ring? The quality of their coat? If they are on their toes?

diomed

supremenovice wrote: »

What key features do you look for when watching them in the parade ring? The quality of their coat? If they are on their toes?

Size. I like a miler to be a good size.
Sprinter types that might not get the mile tend to be smaller and chunky.
Is a horse calm and interested?
I don't like to see a horse jig jogging, or too attached to the handler, or needing to be steered to walk in a straight line, or with its head down.
I am terrible at judging a horse on its own, but if I see them together I can discard a few.
A shiny coat is not something I bother about, or fancy patterns brushed onto the coat by the groom.
Years ago at Phoenix Park racecourse I saw horses that looked like rats with terrible coats. That was probably a ruse by the trainer. They ran like greyhounds.

kiers47

There are early signs that Saxon Warrior is going to get backed for this. All the money slowly but surely drying up on BF. Also gone into best price 11/2. Mostly 5/1 everywhere.
I wonder what the chances are of him going off fav?

Also does Donnacha or Seamie have first choice on these? Or is it a case of Aidan or "the lads" decide? (With Ryan in The US that is)
Not really clued in on the current state of affairs there.

diomed

Gustav Klimt………….……3.85
Saxon Warrior……..….……6
Masar…………..…….….……6.6
Elarqam………………….……7.4
Expert Eye………….….……14
Without Parole……….……17
U S Navy Flag………….……21
Roaring Lion…….…….……23
James Garfield……...……42
Headway………………..……46
Tip Two Win……….….……50
Rajasinghe…………....……60
Hey Gaman…………….……65
Raid………………….....….…75
Murillo………………..….……80
Nebo…………………...……300
Cardsharp…….…….……450

supremenovice

Rajasingh is a big price for a Coventry winner turning up in the 2000. I didn't research it but I think Coventry winners have a good record in the 2000. Henrythenavigator and Dawn Approach spring to mind.

diomed

A few years back this was on the Betfair forum - 2000 Guineas trends

CRITERIA
1. Adjusted Racing Post Rating of at least 117, ten winners in ten runnings (only two above 127) - I used the RPR on the website (probably not "adjusted").
2. Sired by a horse who raced in Europe, 10/10
3. Won at least 50 per cent of career starts, 10/10
4. Started no bigger than 11-1, 10/10
5. Figured in the top six in the market, 10/10
6. Drawn in one of the three highest or four lowest stalls, 9/10 (in four years with no more than 16 runners all were drawn low) - not out yet
7. Won previous outing, 9/10
8. Won over at least seven furlongs as a juvenile, 9/10
9. By a sire who had won a European Group 1 race over at least a mile, 8/10
10. Trained by Sir Michael Stoute, Aidan O'Brien or Saeed Bin Suroor, 8/10
11. Making seasonal reappearance, 7/10
12. Rated within 7 lbs of the top-rated


This is how the field shape up imo

Saxon Warrior…..10
Elarqam…………......9
Gustav Klimt…...….9
Expert Eye……...….8
Masar……...…....…..8
Without Parole…...7
U S Navy Flag…....5
Hey Gaman…….....4
Tip Two Win…..…..4
Roaring Lion .…....4
Headway…….….....3
Raid………........…..3
James Garfield…..3
Murillo…….……......2
Nebo……….......…..2
Rajasinghe…….....2
Cardsharp……......0

diomed

I tried that 2000 Guineas analysis in 2007. Did it work?

Adagio 4/1 fav, was top rated with 11 points. He finished 12th of 24.
The winner, Cockney Rebel 25/1, 18th rated, got 3 points.

del roy

without parole is an non runner.

kiers47

kiers47 wrote: »

Saxon Warrior for me all day. I really don't think he is a derby type either. He doesn't really shape like a horse that will want 1.5 miles at this stage of his career. I might eat them words but I still think The Pentagon will prove the best of the ballydoyle crew at Epsom.
I'm not really an anti post punter as I really couldn't be bothered doing a book for a 50 runner race where 80% won't go. But he is probably the one I think is a tad overpriced at the moment.

Sounds mad but I wouldn't give up on Expert Eye either. He wasn't to bad today but he still pulled like crazy for 3 or so furlongs. Not sure I would back him but I think if he turns up he will go off shorter than the 16/1 he has gone to post the race today.

Saxon Warrior and Expert Eye the 2 for money so far this week.
Expert Eye a best price 12/1 with 1 or 2 firms seems to be 10/9-1 everywhere.
Saxon Warrior now best price 5/1 with mostly 9/2 the price.

I backed Saxon Warrior yesterday at 11/2 i think im gonna have a savor on Expert Eye at 12's as if they can manage to settle him he will take fair beating. They seem confident. I should have taken a go at some of the 16/1 :rolleyes:

Shemale

del roy wrote: »

without parole is an non runner.

That was always going to happen

Mgoraf

Has acclamation had a group 1 winner over a mile ? Can't have expert eye whatsoever. Think theyll eventually aim him at the commonwealth cup

supremenovice

Mgoraf wrote: »

Has acclamation had a group 1 winner over a mile ? Can't have expert eye whatsoever. Think theyll eventually aim him at the commonwealth cup

This prompted me to have a look at his progeny and it does look as though his best performers are sprinters (Marsha, Equiano, Harbour Watch). The Dam doesn't suggest any better over 1m either. One to avoid so.

diomed

TOP RATED on stats
Saxon Warrior (10): only failure “by a sire who had won a European Group 1 race over at least a mile” but his sire, Deep Impact was 3rd btn ¾ length (DSQ banned substance) in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Deep Impact won 7 JPN Gr 1 races.
Masar (9): did not win 50% of his starts (3/7); not making seasonal reappearance (actually ran twice in 2018).
Gustav Klimt (8): fails on adj RPR of at least 117 (he has 114); not making seasonal reappearance; not rated within 7 lbs of the top rated (U S Navy Flag 122).
Elarqam (8); not rated within 7 lbs of the top rated (he has 111); not trained by O’Brien, Stoute, Suroor/Appleby; not rated within 7 lbs of the top rated.
Expert Eye (7); fails on adj RPR of at least 117 (he has 116); did not win previous outing (2nd); not by a sire who had won a European Group 1 race over at least a mile; not making seasonal reappearance.

kiers47

Looks like Seamie will be on Gustav Klimpt and Donnacha on Saxon Warrior. Also some interesting comments from AOB in relation to how Saxon Warrior has developed over the winter from the RP twitter account.

diomed

Those comments about Saxon Warrior make him sound like a Grand National horse.

kiers47

diomed wrote: »

Those comments about Saxon Warrior make him sound like a Grand National horse.

Ya i did have a good laugh at that myself.

kiers47

US Navy Flag, Hey Gaman and Without Parole all came out at the 48 hour dec stage.
14 declared.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

US Navy Flag, Hey Gaman and Without Parole all came out at the 48 hour dec stage.
14 declared.

The 2,000 Guineas line-up: PP odds

Cardsharp. 66/1

Elarqam 11/2

Expert Eye 9/1

Gustav Klimt 5/2f

Headway 25/1

James Garfield 16/1

Masar 9/2

Murillo 50/1

Nebo 50/1

Raid 33/1

Rajasinghe 33/1

Roaring Lion 12/1

Saxon Warrior 9/2

Tip Two Win 25/1


https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/o-brien-triple-handed-as-field-of-14-is-declared-for-2-000-guineas/329920

tryfix

I find the jockey bookings for the O'Brien horses intriguing. Seamie is on the favourite but Donnacha is on the proven Gp1 horse who is going under the radar because we all assume that he's just using the Guineas as a prep for the Derby.

• Aidan would prefer that his son Donnacha won the race.

• Gustav Klimt has inferior form to Saxon Warrior and has found trouble in running in the past ( but he has the pace to overcome that )

• The O'Brien 2nd string often beats the first 1st string.


What are the vibes like for Saxon Warrior and will they smash into one of their 2 fancied runners tomorrow as they usually do when they are super confident?

Cherry_Cola

Are PP NRNB by any chance?

kiers47

Cherry_Cola wrote: »

Are PP NRNB by any chance?

Everywhere should be as final decs were today.