Can the book be beaten... here for a year.

del roy

I see Ladcrooks are reporting some hefty bets being put on Wild Illusion but no one else reporting them, strange.

del roy

One filly I was impressed with was Forever Together finished full of running in what looked to me a slowly run trial at Chester on Thursday. They ran each furlong at 13.10 second, Young Rascals race was a furlong further and they ran the furlong in that race at 12.99.
Forever Together got hampered when she try to make her run, lost momentum but got going again very quickly, that's a hard thing to do in a slow run race and if the oaks is run too quick Forever Together will benefit the most.
I see two firms going 12/1 on WILD ILLUSION. That seems fair however I expect her to come on a bundle for the guineas run and think she will go off at the 7/1 mark.


FFS Jerry why didn't you give us the reverse/fc to do.


EPSOM OAKS: Wild Illusion 16/1 2pts e/w 2nd 5/2 At least it placed. 4.4pts returned

61 bets
7 winners
+108.9pts

Well we are having the craic Jerry said the thread would provide just a pity the filly couldn't do the business.

del roy

3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1

4.30 Delano Roosevelt 2pts e/w 20/1

5.15 golden wolf 2pts e/w 8/1

I think it is a significant booking for Mr Hughs to book W.Lordan for Golden Wolf, significant enough for me to break my sabbatical. W.Lordans natural weight is 8st 2LB, according to the racing post the lowest weight he has done in the past 12 months is 8st so he won't be weak as piss in a finish if he has to slog it out at the finish, least there will be no lead in the saddle.

A four yr old who has raced nine times and raced twice at Epsom resulting in two second places. I think a big run is expected with Mr Hughs booking this jockey to do the 8st 4Lb here today.

Regarding the Oaks yesterday, I think our filly was beaten fair and square and a reversal of form is a thing I cannot see, I think had we (I) not got involved in WILD ILLUSION for the Oaks so early in the ante post betting I probably would have went for the winner e/w after the Chester race as she did look good but e/w on a 5/2 yoke when we got on at 16s is not a bad return on the race.

Its all about VALUE as I pointed out on here before, the three and four points we are nicking here and there on the winners/place bets are the difference between winning and losing.
I see someone suggested on here that I needed a minimum of 20% strike rate with winners to just stay in profit, thats bollox.

What you need is, an ability to see when the odds compilers that work for the bookmakers make mistakes on horses that actually have a chance of being involved in the finish of a race. While we are at it another pile of crap is this over staking malarkey, I don't know how many times I have been told " you don't have a clue about staking or holding onto what you have".
Yet when I ask the same people who are telling me what I am doing wrong to give me their next fifty horse bets before they put them on so I can see how successful they are, they mutter crap about this that and the other.
As I said at the beginning of this, I will take everyone's opinion on board as long as it is given to me before the race.

Listen lads if you want to have a small sum at the end of the year then join a fooking savings club, what we are doing here is
GAMBLING.
Its not for the faint hearted or little boys in shorts.
Its GAMBLING.

As always I am weary of people with Gambling problems and it is for this reason I always give the bets out on a points system, I hope people do not think I am promoting Gambling, I am not.

The only difference between me and some other guy who has a daily bet is
I take my betting very very seriously.
I am organized.
I do my homework before I bet.
I record every bet I put on.
I keep a tally on my wins and losses.
I take my betting very very seriously.

Unfortunately for me it is not just a thing where I pick a bet then log on and have a bet, I have to ring half of Dublin just to get €200 on at the right price but I understand, thats the price I pay for being good at what I do.
While starting this thread I hope to instill my ways of Gambling on to others to show, with patience that when the bookmakers make mistakes we (this thread) can capitalise on it.

Please don't get me wrong I know there are serious knowledeable guys on here who probabaly have forgotten more about racing than I will ever learn but they just come on and give there fancies.

What I am trying to do is show/teach people not to win but to bet without losing fortunes.

Do you know why this thread and the first one I started was successful.

Because I don't care whether the 16/1 horse I pick wins or loses.
Of course I care if a combined number of 16/1 shots lose maybe the next ten or twelve bets but individual/single bets, NO and thats the way it should be. Let me explain.

My studying form has increased by approximately an hour a day due to my eagerness/eco/stubberness to avoid giving losers but I just said I didn't care whether it won or lost, ok I said that but thats the way I have to think when I look at a horse thats 16/1, I just have to give it and hope it runs well.
I can't like all the other tipping services out there be looking at horses who are 7 or 8/1 who has been placed four out of his last six races.
One of the main reasons why I fell apart when I went private was I changed my way of thinking about what sort of selection/bet I gave. I did exactly what all the other tipping services did I looked for obvious horses to back, mainly e/w yokes with a string of seconds and thirds, guess what, mainly the fookers didn't place.

Anyway I as promosed will stay here for the year. if your reading this and getting a bit of craic out of it, great.
If you are following, remember

only gamble what you can afford to do without.
only back the horses on this thread for the year and see what way it helps your Gambling
ALWAYS STICK TO THE STAKES ADVISED.

Jerry

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1

4.30 Delano Roosevelt 2pts e/w 20/1

5.15 golden wolf 2pts e/w 8/1

I think it is a significant booking for Mr Hughs to book W.Lordan for Golden Wolf, significant enough for me to break my sabbatical. W.Lordans natural weight is 8st 2LB, according to the racing post the lowest weight he has done in the past 12 months is 8st so he won't be weak as piss in a finish if he has to slog it out at the finish, least there will be no lead in the saddle.

A four yr old who has raced nine times and raced twice at Epsom resulting in two second places. I think a big run is expected with Mr Hughs booking this jockey to do the 8st 4Lb here today.

Regarding the Oaks yesterday, I think our filly was beaten fair and square and a reversal of form is a thing I cannot see, I think had we (I) not got involved in WILD ILLUSION for the Oaks so early in the ante post betting I probably would have went for the winner e/w after the Chester race as she did look good but e/w on a 5/2 yoke when we got on at 16s is not a bad return on the race.

Its all about VALUE as I pointed out on here before, the three and four points we are nicking here and there on the winners/place bets are the difference between winning and losing.
I see someone suggested on here that I needed a minimum of 20% strike rate with winners to just stay in profit, thats bollox.

What you need is, an ability to see when the odds compilers that work for the bookmakers make mistakes on horses that actually have a chance of being involved in the finish of a race. While we are at it another pile of crap is this over staking malarkey, I don't know how many times I have been told " you don't have a clue about staking or holding onto what you have".
Yet when I ask the same people who are telling me what I am doing wrong to give me their next fifty horse bets before they put them on so I can see how successful they are, they mutter crap about this that and the other.
As I said at the beginning of this, I will take everyone's opinion on board as long as it is given to me before the race.

Listen lads if you want to have a small sum at the end of the year then join a fooking savings club, what we are doing here is
GAMBLING.
Its not for the faint hearted or little boys in shorts.
Its GAMBLING.

As always I am weary of people with Gambling problems and it is for this reason I always give the bets out on a points system, I hope people do not think I am promoting Gambling, I am not.

The only difference between me and some other guy who has a daily bet is
I take my betting very very seriously.
I am organized.
I do my homework before I bet.
I record every bet I put on.
I keep a tally on my wins and losses.
I take my betting very very seriously.

Unfortunately for me it is not just a thing where I pick a bet then log on and have a bet, I have to ring half of Dublin just to get €200 on at the right price but I understand, thats the price I pay for being good at what I do.
While starting this thread I hope to instill my ways of Gambling on to others to show, with patience that when the bookmakers make mistakes we (this thread) can capitalise on it.

Please don't get me wrong I know there are serious knowledeable guys on here who probabaly have forgotten more about racing than I will ever learn but they just come on and give there fancies.

What I am trying to do is show/teach people not to win but to bet without losing fortunes.

Do you know why this thread and the first one I started was successful.

Because I don't care whether the 16/1 horse I pick wins or loses.
Of course I care if a combined number of 16/1 shots lose maybe the next ten or twelve bets but individual/single bets, NO and thats the way it should be. Let me explain.

My studying form has increased by approximately an hour a day due to my eagerness/eco/stubberness to avoid giving losers but I just said I didn't care whether it won or lost, ok I said that but thats the way I have to think when I look at a horse thats 16/1, I just have to give it and hope it runs well.
I can't like all the other tipping services out there be looking at horses who are 7 or 8/1 who has been placed four out of his last six races.
One of the main reasons why I fell apart when I went private was I changed my way of thinking about what sort of selection/bet I gave. I did exactly what all the other tipping services did I looked for obvious horses to back, mainly e/w yokes with a string of seconds and thirds, guess what, mainly the fookers didn't place.

Anyway I as promosed will stay here for the year. if your reading this and getting a bit of craic out of it, great.
If you are following, remember

only gamble what you can afford to do without.
only back the horses on this thread for the year and see what way it helps your Gambling
ALWAYS STICK TO THE STAKES ADVISED.

Jerry

Top notch.

Jayd0g

3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1 - 12th

del roy

3.45 Edward lewis 2pts e/w 12/1 unp

4.30 Delano Roosevelt 2pts e/w 20/1 unpl

5.15 golden wolf 2pts e/w 8/1 2nd returns 6pts

6pts loss today.

64 bets
7 winners
+102.9pts

Mgoraf

Golden wolf ran into a very well handicapped horse there. Was nicely ahead of the rest of the field

del roy

Mgoraf wrote: »

Golden wolf ran into a very well handicapped horse there. Was nicely ahead of the rest of the field

he sure did.

del roy

4.10 taking risks 12/1 2pts e/w

Nicky says
my two in this could do with a drop of rain but both are very well. Ryan Day picked Taking Risks as he thought he would be less depended on a bit of rain arriving but as I say they are both going well at home and Taking risks price seems a little too big to me.
He has run some good races when he was younger on good ground.

Ladcrooks the only one going 12/1 now.

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

4.10 taking risks 12/1 2pts e/w

Nicky says
my two in this could do with a drop of rain but both are very well. Ryan Day picked Taking Risks as he thought he would be less depended on a bit of rain arriving but as I say they are both going well at home and Taking risks price seems a little too big to me.
He has run some good races when he was younger on good ground.

Ladcrooks the only one going 12/1 now.

Hey Del,what day is this one for?

d22ontour

Today at Perth.

sydthebeat

Jayd0g wrote: »

Hey Del,what day is this one for?

16:10 in Perth

del roy

Sorry lads
Jerry told me he was going away and won't be back until Monday so wrongly I assumed there would be no bets until then. This must be info stuff, I think Jery has a mate who has a couple of horses with Nicky.

Lets hope we return to winning ways after the disasterous weekend.

Jayd0g

Thanks lads!

del roy

Looking for a bit of help here.
Is there anyway I can print off this thread.

Thanks.

CH3OH

del roy wrote: »

Looking for a bit of help here.
Is there anyway I can print off this thread.

Thanks.

Thread tools ( just above thread on right)... printable version.. (not sure if that helps)

del roy

4.10 taking risk 2pts e/w 12/1
Perth hosts the richest handicap ever ran at the course so you would expect all the northern trainers to be out in force. N.Richards goes there two handed with LOOKING WELL 13/2 and TAKING RISKS 10/1.

It seems the jockey Ryan Day has decided to ride Taking risks as he has run some good races on goodish ground before.
Well certainly his 2nd to MARKOV last December was no disgrace, Markov on good ground is a very good horse and Taking risks gave him a very good race over a distance that would have being far to short for him. Although Markov did nothing in his next three races he really needs good ground to show how good he is. He has fallen twice however one of the "falls" was not really a fall, Brian Harding slipped off him when he landed after not getting his back feet high enough to clear the fence.

He also won a 3m1f hurdle race on good ground at Carlise albeit a lucky winner as the leader fell at the last but it proves he can handle the good ground.

However I wouldn't put it past Nicky to have LOOKING WELL fit for this and the booking of top jockey is clearly eye catching but I will take a chance on TAKING RISKS. I think he will make a good staying chaser no matter what happens today.

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

4.10 taking risk 2pts e/w 12/1
Perth hosts the richest handicap ever ran at the course so you would expect all the northern trainers to be out in force. N.Richards goes there two handed with LOOKING WELL 13/2 and TAKING RISKS 10/1.

It seems the jockey Ryan Day has decided to ride Taking risks as he has run some good races on goodish ground before.
Well certainly his 2nd to MARKOV last December was no disgrace, Markov on good ground is a very good horse and Taking risks gave him a very good race over a distance that would have being far to short for him. Although Markov did nothing in his next three races he really needs good ground to show how good he is. He has fallen twice however one of the "falls" was not really a fall, Brian Harding slipped off him when he landed after not getting his back feet high enough to clear the fence.

He also won a 3m1f hurdle race on good ground at Carlise albeit a lucky winner as the leader fell at the last but it proves he can handle the good ground.

However I wouldn't put it past Nicky to have LOOKING WELL fit for this and the booking of top jockey is clearly eye catching but I will take a chance on TAKING RISKS. I think he will make a good staying chaser no matter what happens today.

Anything to be said for the reverse forecast?

del roy

4.10 taking risk 2pts e/w 12/1
finished 5th ran well,


65 bets
7 winners
+98.9pts

del roy

A few times during a season I come across a bet which I think is a great bet and the bookies have being very generous in offering such odds. I alway stick to the staking system and occasionlly I will go 3pts e/w.

tomorrows bet is such an occasion.

Leicester
5.10 persuing speed 3 pts e/w 10/1

this lightly raced gelding has raced nine times, won four of them and more importantly raced at Leicester twice, winning both of them.The first race he won was a 17 runner affair when he was just rated 57, he was 14/1 and he passed the 3/1fav Covenham on the run in very easily indeed. The comments for ther race were Held up, headway over 1f out, ran on to lead well inside final furlong . He was drawn 12 of 17 this day, the 2nd 3td and 4th were drawn 2 5 4.

Onto the next race running off 7LB higher mark (64) and again the fav in the race was 7/2 Covenham and Persuing speed agian pasted him on the run in with a lenght to spare.
Covenham has won three races since this race.


Onto the next race, up another 6LB bringing his new mark to 70, he went off 3/1fav, here are the comments for the race
Held up behind, ridden and headway over 1f out, led final 100yds, ran on strongly (op 9/4)
Delphie lane who was 2nd in this race has only raced once since this race and won it

Onto his next race which is quite an important one for us. Back to Leicester where only three races back he won off 57, he is now racing off a new career high mark of 75, incidentally his mark tomorrow. He went off 2/1fav and here are the comments for the race.
Held up, headway over 1f out, soon chasing leader, ridden and ran on to lead post (tchd 15/8 and tchd 9/4)

Here is the Anaylsis
Plenty held chances in this fair handicap. They went a good pace and eventually elected to come down the centre.

PURSUING STEED, whose mark had gone up 19lb for recording a hat-trick of handicap wins coming into this, pulled it out of the fire to get up late on and make it a four-timer. Well backed, he was going nowhere at halfway, but came with a withering challenge and Charlie Bennett conjured up a late thrust to get the better of the runner-up. He's a 'hold up and run on strongly' type the handicapper finds it hard to get a grip on and he could improve for an extra furlong too.
Obviously with 17 runners we should get the pace he needs and 10/1 for a horse who has won 45% of his nine races and has been well backed in all four wins, 10/1 may not last long.

Kickham could be a danger, unusual booking for the yard and he is 16/1 which is quite big but I think Persuing speed has a great chance back at a course where he is 2/2

Jockey Charlie Bennett is 2/6 33% wins and 4/6 66% places at Leicester.

Trainer H. Morrision is 2/8 25% wins and 6/8 75% places at Leicester.

Jerry

del roy

A ffs lads
people need to open up some accounts online, powers will just start watching the thread and cut the horse the minute we put it up.
Its 6/1 with powers but still 9/1 with boyles, shop around.

del roy

Just rang Boyles to ask "why are you advertising 9/1 about Persuing speed in the 5.10 tomorrow at Leicester when he is only 15/2.

Not our fault, thats oddschecker.

hawaii501

Still 9s with BetVictor

del roy

hawaii501 wrote: »

Still 9s with BetVictor

Yeah I see that but they are one of my


Dear xxxxx

sorry but we can't take a bet from you but you can play our casino games and the lotto for as much as you care to lose.
This decision will not change, blah blah blah.


The traders deparment
B.Victor.

Heres another one I found

Dear Mr xxxxxxx

Your StanJames.com username is: xxxxxxx

All Stan James accounts are reviewed on a regular basis by our Trading team, and due to betting patterns on this account the decision has been made to close it.

I would make you aware that this decision has been made at the highest level and will not be reversed. Any open bets will be honoured in accordance with our rules, and any outstanding balance will be returned to you via your normal withdrawal method.

Kind regards,

The Stan James Team.



Hi xxxxxxx

We wish to advise you that we are restructuring our approach to bonuses, concessions, Free Bet refunds and Best Odds Guaranteed.


As a result a number of accounts, including yours, will no longer be eligible for bonuses, concessions, free bet refunds or Best Odds Guaranteed of any kind, effective immediately.


This restriction will be included in all future terms and conditions. All other terms and conditions remain the same and we sincerely look forward to your continued custom at Ladbrokes.


Please note any pending bonuses or concessions attached to your account have also been withdrawn.


Kind regards

Ladbrokes Sports Team




Bookmakers me hole. :mad:

del roy

9/1 with Laddies.

Long gone now 6/1 best price in town.

del roy

Jay
did you notice Jerry going head to head with Mr Giggs from across the water today, should be interesting.

Jayd0g

del roy wrote: »

Jay
did you notice Jerry going head to head with Mr Giggs from across the water today, should be interesting.

I did indeed, sticking with Jerry!

Intetesting that the other
Commentators are supporting Jerry's point about the race having a lot of unknowns with it reflected in price setting, lot of potential value yesterday.

See pursuing steed is joint 2nd fave now too. Hoping for a place at least.

del roy

BIG day today lads.

2.20 Grageelagh girl pts win 5/4
5.10 persuing steed 3pts e/w 10/1
7.45 Genetics 2pts e/w 11/1

bookman2

is it a 5 pt win bet on the 2.20?

del roy

sorry bookman yes.