Cheltenham 2018 - Day 2

gazza1 · 13-03-2018 9:06pm

Day 2 selections

1.30 Taking Samcro on with Next Destination simply because of the odds and the money back offer

2.10 Monalee
Hugely impressed with his Battling win lto

2.50 William Henry ew Based on trends

7 of the last 9 winners came from the top 8 in the weights
11 of the last 12 in the top 7 in the betting
18 of the last 23 won earlier this season
12 of the last 13 hadn't run for 32 days or longer

3.30 sod it I'm backing DOUVAN

4.10 Cause of Causes

4.50 GRAND SANCY / Mitchouka both ew

French bred have won 6 of last 12
6 of the last 7 came from bottom half of h'cap
10 of the last 13 had run in the last 25 days
5 of the last 6 returned between 25 and 40/1
All of the last 12 winners rated 124-134
Nicholls has won 3 of the last 8

5.30 Know the Score ew

BOL

sdoc13 · 13-03-2018 9:07pm

Moon Dice wrote: »

Sweet Jesus let Samcro win. Would love to see him blow them all away.

Agreed. Would love to see a supperstar performance and be great for everyone on him at decent prices.

akelly02 · 13-03-2018 9:16pm

Douvan too big at 7/2

Altior can need a bit of stoking , ruby could nick this from the front

Double up with the beast samcro, €20
Returns €150

I’ve a funny story about Elliot and samcro , I’ll tell ye after he wins tomorrow

piplip87 · 13-03-2018 9:22pm

munster87 wrote: »

I'm on Jp's other one, Rhinestone, why so confident on Didtheyleaveyououttoo?

First race was an All Weather Bumper, totally demolished the field. Sat back and came home like a rocket.

Second one was on Softish ground again came late and won by about 2 lengths.

Related to the great Denman, I think if it drys out a bit he will be in with a shot.

Bit of a worry Gerrathy has sided with Rhinestone though.

mdwexford · 13-03-2018 9:25pm

Samcro is the worst priced horse I’ve ever seen at the festival in 18 years.

Any horse 4/6 should be a defending champion, be unbeaten all season and have opposition who he has beaten previously. No question marks at all.

NinetyTwoTeam · 13-03-2018 9:37pm

ive changed my mind about samcro, AJ saved the bookies so he won't need to now, and there never been a runner this short in this race.

delighted Elliott had no winners and Mullins had a treble, even with BD winning some will say he only barely beat Melon (only due to the ground) and everyone will pile into Next Destination and Douvan will mean samcro and Altior will actually be backable prices. kinda like people who thought petit moucher and faugheens prices were gifts from the gods on day 1 it's just a sucker bet.

Ballymore: Samcro (NB)
Coral Cup: Le Breuil ew
Queen Mother: Altior (nap)
Fred Winter: Act of Valour ew
Champ Bumper: Acey Milan ew

not bothering with the RSA or glenfarclas

Fanny Wank · 13-03-2018 9:46pm

mdwexford wrote: »

Samcro is the worst priced horse I’ve ever seen at the festival in 18 years.

Any horse 4/6 should be a defending champion, be unbeaten all season and have opposition who he has beaten previously. No question marks at all.

Not sure I'd say worst ever (I always said So Young in this in 2011 I think gets that honour) but he is desperately short. Paloma Blue didn't do his form any harm today but was well beaten by two English novices also.

Niallers87 · 13-03-2018 9:53pm

Sorry if this was asked already; but was the paddy power money back special if the fav won based for just in store offers or just online accounts?

diceyreilly · 13-03-2018 9:55pm

Niallers87 wrote: »

Sorry if this was asked already; but was the paddy power money back special if the fav won based for just in store offers or just online accounts?

Both

NinetyTwoTeam · 13-03-2018 9:55pm

mdwexford wrote: »

Samcro is the worst priced horse I’ve ever seen at the festival in 18 years.

Any horse 4/6 should be a defending champion, be unbeaten all season and have opposition who he has beaten previously. No question marks at all.

i hear ya but the horses in opposition in these novice races aren't exactly highly accomplished either. look at footpad, he wasn't too disimilar a price at the off and demolished everything and probably had more doubters.

AJ had no question marks and was 1/2 its just the nature of the game, in the long run backing these prices will get you killed but if you can hit the right ones or double them up successfully it helps keep the flutters on the 28 runner crap shoots going. anyway he'll be 10/11ish tomorrow everyone will want Rubys horse.

The best value in the race will be Mullins 2nd 3rd stringers or especially black ops who just barely missed same course and distance January and has the excellent Noel Fehily up, should be very good shout for a place and even with Fehily having a winner today the joe public's will be all on Samcro and ND, nothing else will get backed

dk6dk6 · 13-03-2018 9:59pm

mdwexford wrote: »

Samcro is the worst priced horse I’ve ever seen at the festival in 18 years.

Any horse 4/6 should be a defending champion, be unbeaten all season and have opposition who he has beaten previously. No question marks at all.

No that would be Faugheen today, anyone who backed Faugheen at In around 4/1 needs to have a serious word with themselves.

Fanny Wank · 13-03-2018 10:02pm

dk6dk6 wrote: »

No that would be Faugheen today, anyone who backed Faugheen at In around 4/1 needs to have a serious word with themselves.

Anyone who backed Faugheen full stop - I really hope they learned a life lesson (this isn't aftertiming I posted the same a few times on here)

I backed Istabraq in 2002 with a similar profile, that was the day I learned about these type of horses

ItsGoosey · 13-03-2018 10:06pm

Bookies must've been rubbing their hands together when Faugheen started shortening a good bit.

Niallers87 · 13-03-2018 10:09pm

diceyreilly wrote: »

Both

Are you sure? I back st calvados and the shop steward told me, it was just on the first raceðŸ€”ðŸ€”

dk6dk6 · 13-03-2018 10:10pm

Niallers87 wrote: »

Are you sure? I back st calvados and the shop steward told me, it was just on the first raceðŸ€”ðŸ€”

Was just the first race in shops and all online

Slattsy · 13-03-2018 10:13pm

mdwexford wrote: »

Samcro is the worst priced horse I’ve ever seen at the festival in 18 years.

Any horse 4/6 should be a defending champion, be unbeaten all season and have opposition who he has beaten previously. No question marks at all.

Any fancies or just hyperbole DHWexford?

Motivator · 13-03-2018 10:15pm

Wednesday’s card is always tricky and tomorrow is no different. Kept the powder somewhat dry today and backed plenty ew at big prices without any success.

Many are doubting Samcro after the way Elliott’s horses ran today, it’s very similar to last year with Willie’s horses after the first two days. Everyone was doubting Mullins/Walsh and look how that turned out!

I fancied a couple in the Coral Cup but I think the ground is very much against them. That 2m 5f will take some getting tomorrow.

Acey Milan in the bumper is the one I really fancy - even though I think the Balckbow/Rhinestone form is really strong - and he’ll be my main bet tomorrow. His last performance is far too good to get away from. He’ll stay on up the hill all day and I’d fancy him to battle it out with Rhinestone. He got a poor ride last time out but battled on really well, his attitude was top class.

moneymore · 13-03-2018 10:24pm

Have backed Duc des genievres monalee cause of causes and didtheyleaveuoutto singles and a ew lucky

Mad_Dave · 13-03-2018 10:27pm

1:30 Duc Des Genievres e/w and Brahma Bull e/w
2.10 Dounikos e/w Presenting Percy win
2.50 As You Were e/w and Barra e/w
3.30 Ordinary World e/w
4.50 Mastermind e/w
5.30 didtheyleaveuouttoo e/w
Small treble on Samcro, Presenting Percy and Altior.

Normstorm · 13-03-2018 10:28pm

Any opinions on Brahma Bull in the first race tomorrow. Currently at 33/1, down from 50/1, and unbeaten in his four runs. Main concern is that its been an awfully long time since his last race in November

dave81 · 13-03-2018 10:29pm

munster87 wrote: »

I'm on Jp's other one, Rhinestone, why so confident on Didtheyleaveyououttoo?

He wins if he goes on the ground. That is unknown. He might love it. Very promising looking horse eased down the last day. Impressive. I'll have a split bet on him, but I'm a huge Acey fan, allowances and ground and course form. I think these two will stuff the Irish form. Very little between them. Did they might end up a better horse later but maybe not tomorrow. I'm confident that its between then.

Motivator · 13-03-2018 10:41pm

dave81 wrote: »

He wins if he goes on the ground. That is unknown. He might love it. Very promising looking horse eased down the last day. Impressive. I'll have a split bet on him, but I'm a huge Acey fan, allowances and ground and course form. I think these two will stuff the Irish form. Very little between them. Did they might end up a better horse later but maybe not tomorrow. I'm confident that its between then.

Acey Milan won over C&D on New Years Day too, that has to play a major role in tomorrow’s race. C&D form at this stage of their careers is an enormous advantage.

Motivator · 13-03-2018 10:43pm

Motivator wrote: »

Acey Milan won over C&D on New Years Day too, that has to play a major role in tomorrow’s race. C&D form at this stage of their careers is an enormous advantage.

Sorry, course form!! Won over 1m 6f on NY day

mdwexford · 13-03-2018 10:50pm

Fanny **** wrote: »

Not sure I'd say worst ever (I always said So Young in this in 2011 I think gets that honour) but he is desperately short. Paloma Blue didn't do his form any harm today but was well beaten by two English novices also.

So Young was another, at least he was 2/1 though. Pont Alexander at 6/4 as well was crazy. But this fella is currently 4/6!!

NinetyTwoTeam wrote: »

i hear ya but the horses in opposition in these novice races aren't exactly highly accomplished either. look at footpad, he wasn't too disimilar a price at the off and demolished everything and probably had more doubters.

AJ had no question marks and was 1/2 its just the nature of the game, in the long run backing these prices will get you killed but if you can hit the right ones or double them up successfully it helps keep the flutters on the 28 runner crap shoots going. anyway he'll be 10/11ish tomorrow everyone will want Rubys horse.

The best value in the race will be Mullins 2nd 3rd stringers or especially black ops who just barely missed same course and distance January and has the excellent Noel Fehily up, should be very good shout for a place and even with Fehily having a winner today the joe public's will be all on Samcro and ND, nothing else will get backed

There are always unexposed ones though. Something that can improve for the fast pace, bigger field, usually better ground etc

AJ looked a good thing to me and was the certainty of the day this morning. But the Mullins mare was still an unknown factor. Albeit the King horse beat her anyway.

dk6dk6 wrote: »

No that would be Faugheen today, anyone who backed Faugheen at In around 4/1 needs to have a serious word with themselves.

I agree he looked far too short today.

He was clearly gone, no way he was winning that race.

JP Liz V1 · 13-03-2018 10:50pm

Knight In Dubai

and

Graceful Legend

e/w

I know long shots but fingers crossed

Niallers87 · 13-03-2018 10:52pm

Anyone give Special Tiara a chance tomorrow, well at least to place?

slimshady007 · 13-03-2018 10:54pm

Niallers87 wrote: »

Anyone give Special Tiara a chance tomorrow, well at least to place?

Needs it like a road, no chance imo

Normstorm · 13-03-2018 10:58pm

First time doing my own bit of research for Cheltenham and this is what I've come up with for tomorrow:

13:30 - Brahma bull
14:10 - Dounikos/black corton
14:50 - Barra
16:10 - cause of causes
16:50 - veneer of charm
17:30 - Felix desjy

Would be great to hear your thoughts and best of luck to everyone on Day 2!

NinetyTwoTeam · 13-03-2018 11:15pm

Niallers87 wrote: »

Anyone give Special Tiara a chance tomorrow, well at least to place?

Not really. he's 10 and hasn't won since his shock win last year in the Queen Mother

If you want a decent priced e/w horse it has to be Politilogue at 14s. He's won a few times since being 4th in the JLT, including beating Fox Norton, who special Tiara just barely beat in this race last year. Also acts on soft - heavy. Literally ticks every box.

However, Altior brushed him aside with a minimum of fuss in his prep race and it would take more than a wee infection to turn the tables based on that.

Faugheen has never been bigger than 4/7 for a single race and has obliged every time bar this race last year so I understand the interest after Rubys double but I would prefer Min without a doubt if picking from them two. Townend isn't chopped liver and if Altior doesn't win I'd say Mullins gets the 1-2. But Altior should do the biz imo, gonna wait to see if it drifts, which it definitely will if the Mullins camp has another winner beforehand as I have said.

Francie Barrett · 13-03-2018 11:28pm

aidankkk wrote: »

thats scandalous commentary .

It's not really though.

A few months ago, Ricci would not shut up to all and sundry about Max Dynamite going for the County Hurdle. The money came on for him a few weeks ago for the Coral Cup and lo and behold, Max Dynamite goes in the Coral Cup.

It's all very well for you to say you deserve what you get for backing antepost without NRNB. That is not even relevant though. The point is the whole system of entries and declarations has become a total farce, with people like Ricci clearly manipulating the system.

Cheltenham 2018 - Day 2

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