Cheltenham 2018 - Day 2

diomed

Cheltenham 2018 - Day 2
Day 2 - Wed 13:30… Ballymore Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f
Day 2 - Wed 14:10… RSA Insurance Novices' Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m½f
Day 2 - Wed 14:50… Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f
Day 2 - Wed 15:30… Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m
Day 2 - Wed 16:10… Glenfarclas Chase (Cross Country Chase) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m6f
Day 2 - Wed 16:50… Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo) 2m½f
Day 2 - Wed 17:30… Champion Bumper (National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) Cl1 (4-6yo) 2m½f

Fitz*

Douvan Vs Altior Vs Min.

Proper and Exciting Race to look forward to.

Gavin "shels"

Belter of a race.

Claregaafan18

So Min will be ridden by Paul Townend and Douvan will be ridden by Ruby for the CC. Personally from a PR point of view this has been a disaster for Ricci and Mullins. Hope this episode does not put a wedge between the two men as Ricci has done a lot in relation to investing in Irish racing by supporting WP Mullins.

I though RR said something very significant last night on ATR by saying that he would like to see more of Willie's top guns racing on a more frequent basis throughout the winter months, rather then getting them ready in particular for Cheltenham and Punchestown. In other words he feels that Cheltenham should not the be all end all for the Closutton based trainer.

While I won't bet too big this week, the best long range bet for the coming months must be that RR will end his association with Willie I'm afraid after all the hassle starting with Vautour - will he won't he run in the Ryanair and now with Douvan and not forgetting the events leading to Faugheen's withdrawal from the Champion Hurdle in 2016.

Didactic Ninja

Hope douvan pulls up after 50 yards. Consistent douchebaggery from all involved

longshotvalue

Didactic Ninja wrote: »

Hope douvan pulls up after 50 yards. Consistent douchebaggery from all involved

thats scandalous commentary . Anyone caught with a loosing bet only has themselves to blame .. Looks a great race now .

WickIow Brave

aidankkk wrote: »

thats scandalous commentary . Anyone caught with a loosing bet only has themselves to blame .. Looks a great race now .

It looks like an unbelievable race. Why are people moaning? They said the Ryanair was under consideration not that he was definitely running there. It's not their fault the Racing Post miscommunicated that. Would have been awful to run a horse like Douvan in the Ryanair when the Champion Chase is there for the taking.

supremenovice

RP are slow to update the racecards. Is Brahma Bull declared for the Ballymore?
Word is David Casey says hes been working great at home.

WickIow Brave

supremenovice wrote: »

RP are slow to update the racecards. Is Brahma Bull declared for the Ballymore?
Word is David Casey says hes been working great at home.

Yes, declared.

supremenovice

40/1 - have to have a nibble at that each way

RivetingRoger

ALTIOR INJURED!! FFFFFUUUUUCCCKKK

ShaneU

Altior 13/8 on the exchange now

Will hold off backing until I hear more from Henderson

NinetyTwoTeam

as i said in the day 1 thread, think the favs all do well Tuesday and then everyone pours onto Samcro and he gets turned over.

this development plus the Altior injury puts every one off him (if he runs) and he drifts way out, then hacks up anyway.

and then no more 'good things' come in until Laurina on Thursday.

If Altior runs I will back him, simple as. the injury is a concern but if he goes ill take him and his course winning form over samcro who hasn't even ran there before.

handsfree2

Backed next destination on the Skybet offer.

It's a shot to nothing. His form is on par with Samcro so why not.

NinetyTwoTeam

handsfree2 wrote: »

Backed next destination on the Skybet offer.

It's a shot to nothing. His form is on par with Samcro so why not.

i was actually thinking this could be one of the races to back the 2nd, 3rd and 4th strings but ND has already beat the 2nd string handy enough. if you're backing anything but samcro i say wait. samcro is going to be shorter than he is now which is crazy, if he goes shorter than beveur dair who is way more of a cert imo.

doesn't look like there's ever even been a favorite this short let alone a winning one this short in this race the last 20 years. all the favs who won have been odds against. what that means i dunno but i was a lot more keen on altior and just could see that his injury plus all the hype already on samcro will make him so popular (bc altior won't be popular any more) and if the favs win on Tuesday he'll be an insanely short price.

Black Op has to be a decent e/w shout at 9/1, sure he just barely failed in a grade 2 at Cheltenham in January, in a race that was also called balkllymore novice hurdle. and noel fehily is 1-1 on him.

dk6dk6

Altior been steadily shortening all the time, are we going to get some good news tomorrow morning.

Claregaafan18

https://twitter.com/sevenbarrows/status/973469113585733632

showpony1

what are peoples thoughts on presenting percy?
likely to be overturned by Monalee?

Gavin "shels"

showpony1 wrote: »

what are peoples thoughts on presenting percy?
likely to be overturned by Monalee?

Russell in the Star yesterday

"For Presenting Percy to be at his best, he needs good ground and there probably will be plenty of ease in the ground. That's a concern. He will have to put on a career best to win this RSA".

"Of the rest, I must say Monalee was impressive at Leopardstown the last day, he showed plenty of class and guts to come back from that fall at Christmas".

kiers47

Going on the times today. The ground is back to Soft according to the time guru's

Gavin "shels"

kiers47 wrote: »

Going on the times today. The ground is back to Soft according to the time guru's

Expecting rain though

moneymore

Monalee 4/1 have to play!

piplip87

Thank god for this site and Paddy Power money back offer today. One winner on what I posted in todays thread.

Tomorrows selections

1.30 Vision Des Flos
2.10 Black Corton and Al Boum Photo
2.50 Max Dynamite
3.30 Douvan
4.10 Josies Orders
4.50 Style De Garde
17.30 Didtheyleaveyououttoo. My festival banker.

Have 1 Euro Lucky 15s too

Next Destination, Bless the wings, The King Of May, Rhinestone

And A favourites ACCa Samcro, Monalee,Altior, Cause of Causes

ItsGoosey

Monalee will definitely be going into a bet for me tomorrow.

Apples Jade is going onto a similar list as Annie Power after today!

munster87

piplip87 wrote: »

Thank god for this site and Paddy Power money back offer today. One winner on what I posted in todays thread.

Tomorrows selections

1.30 Vision Des Flos
2.10 Black Corton and Al Boum Photo
2.50 Max Dynamite
3.30 Douvan
4.10 Josies Orders
4.50 Style De Garde
17.30 Didtheyleaveyououttoo. My festival banker.

Have 1 Euro Lucky 15s too

Next Destination, Bless the wings, The King Of May, Rhinestone

And A favourites ACCa Samcro, Monalee,Altior, Cause of Causes

I'm on Jp's other one, Rhinestone, why so confident on Didtheyleaveyououttoo?

ItsGoosey

E/W Double
2.10 - Black Corton @ 15/2
2.50 - Le Breuil @ 14/1

To Win Double
4.10 - Tiger Roll @ 11/2
5.30 - Blackbow @ 5/1

Also have them in an E/W acca too!

Faugheen

Cause Of Causes and Blackbow in a double.

Thrown in a small treble with Monalee too.

Claregaafan18

My tips for tomorrow (Wednesday) are

1:30 Vision Des Flos - very impressive in his last start in Exeter after having a wind op
2:50 As You Were - well fancied after solid runs in Ireland
4:50 Embole - like VDF had a wind op before impressing last time out in Wincanton

in a e/w accumulator

My win bet tomorrow is Black Corton (2:10) and Nube Negra (4:50) in a double. The former will appreciate any improvement in the going and is progressing very nicely after a emphatic win beating Ms Parfois in Ascot, who franked the form in the NH Chase today with a cracking second.

Nube Negra gave Apple's Shakira (fav for the Triumph on Friday) her toughest race in Cheltenham in December and looks most progressive for the Skelton's in a hot race.

Fanny Wank

UK novices were to the fore in the Supreme, though the Irish did have the 3rd (boosting Samcro's form) and 4th

Hence I'm going to back Black Op tomorrow. Already have him in an ew double with Santini on Friday but will back him win and place tomorrow also

Samcro may well turn into a superstar but is woefully short

Moon Dice

Sweet Jesus let Samcro win. Would love to see him blow them all away.

D.Q

Samcro, Douvan, cause of causes.

Trixie.

Apples jade ruined my day today. Hoping for better luck tomorrow

gazza1

Day 2 selections

1.30 Taking Samcro on with Next Destination simply because of the odds and the money back offer

2.10 Monalee
Hugely impressed with his Battling win lto

2.50 William Henry ew Based on trends

7 of the last 9 winners came from the top 8 in the weights
11 of the last 12 in the top 7 in the betting
18 of the last 23 won earlier this season
12 of the last 13 hadn't run for 32 days or longer

3.30 sod it I'm backing DOUVAN

4.10 Cause of Causes

4.50 GRAND SANCY / Mitchouka both ew

French bred have won 6 of last 12
6 of the last 7 came from bottom half of h'cap
10 of the last 13 had run in the last 25 days
5 of the last 6 returned between 25 and 40/1
All of the last 12 winners rated 124-134
Nicholls has won 3 of the last 8

5.30 Know the Score ew

BOL

sdoc13

Moon Dice wrote: »

Sweet Jesus let Samcro win. Would love to see him blow them all away.

Agreed. Would love to see a supperstar performance and be great for everyone on him at decent prices.

akelly02

Douvan too big at 7/2

Altior can need a bit of stoking , ruby could nick this from the front

Double up with the beast samcro, €20
Returns €150

I’ve a funny story about Elliot and samcro , I’ll tell ye after he wins tomorrow

piplip87

munster87 wrote: »

I'm on Jp's other one, Rhinestone, why so confident on Didtheyleaveyououttoo?

First race was an All Weather Bumper, totally demolished the field. Sat back and came home like a rocket.

Second one was on Softish ground again came late and won by about 2 lengths.

Related to the great Denman, I think if it drys out a bit he will be in with a shot.

Bit of a worry Gerrathy has sided with Rhinestone though.

mdwexford

Samcro is the worst priced horse I’ve ever seen at the festival in 18 years.

Any horse 4/6 should be a defending champion, be unbeaten all season and have opposition who he has beaten previously. No question marks at all.

NinetyTwoTeam

ive changed my mind about samcro, AJ saved the bookies so he won't need to now, and there never been a runner this short in this race.

delighted Elliott had no winners and Mullins had a treble, even with BD winning some will say he only barely beat Melon (only due to the ground) and everyone will pile into Next Destination and Douvan will mean samcro and Altior will actually be backable prices. kinda like people who thought petit moucher and faugheens prices were gifts from the gods on day 1 it's just a sucker bet.

Ballymore: Samcro (NB)
Coral Cup: Le Breuil ew
Queen Mother: Altior (nap)
Fred Winter: Act of Valour ew
Champ Bumper: Acey Milan ew

not bothering with the RSA or glenfarclas

Fanny Wank

mdwexford wrote: »

Samcro is the worst priced horse I’ve ever seen at the festival in 18 years.

Any horse 4/6 should be a defending champion, be unbeaten all season and have opposition who he has beaten previously. No question marks at all.

Not sure I'd say worst ever (I always said So Young in this in 2011 I think gets that honour) but he is desperately short. Paloma Blue didn't do his form any harm today but was well beaten by two English novices also.

Niallers87

Sorry if this was asked already; but was the paddy power money back special if the fav won based for just in store offers or just online accounts?

diceyreilly

Niallers87 wrote: »

Sorry if this was asked already; but was the paddy power money back special if the fav won based for just in store offers or just online accounts?

Both

NinetyTwoTeam

mdwexford wrote: »

Samcro is the worst priced horse I’ve ever seen at the festival in 18 years.

Any horse 4/6 should be a defending champion, be unbeaten all season and have opposition who he has beaten previously. No question marks at all.

i hear ya but the horses in opposition in these novice races aren't exactly highly accomplished either. look at footpad, he wasn't too disimilar a price at the off and demolished everything and probably had more doubters.

AJ had no question marks and was 1/2 its just the nature of the game, in the long run backing these prices will get you killed but if you can hit the right ones or double them up successfully it helps keep the flutters on the 28 runner crap shoots going. anyway he'll be 10/11ish tomorrow everyone will want Rubys horse.

The best value in the race will be Mullins 2nd 3rd stringers or especially black ops who just barely missed same course and distance January and has the excellent Noel Fehily up, should be very good shout for a place and even with Fehily having a winner today the joe public's will be all on Samcro and ND, nothing else will get backed

dk6dk6

mdwexford wrote: »

Samcro is the worst priced horse I’ve ever seen at the festival in 18 years.

Any horse 4/6 should be a defending champion, be unbeaten all season and have opposition who he has beaten previously. No question marks at all.

No that would be Faugheen today, anyone who backed Faugheen at In around 4/1 needs to have a serious word with themselves.

Fanny Wank

dk6dk6 wrote: »

No that would be Faugheen today, anyone who backed Faugheen at In around 4/1 needs to have a serious word with themselves.

Anyone who backed Faugheen full stop - I really hope they learned a life lesson (this isn't aftertiming I posted the same a few times on here)

I backed Istabraq in 2002 with a similar profile, that was the day I learned about these type of horses

ItsGoosey

Bookies must've been rubbing their hands together when Faugheen started shortening a good bit.

Niallers87

diceyreilly wrote: »

Both

Are you sure? I back st calvados and the shop steward told me, it was just on the first race🀔🀔

dk6dk6

Niallers87 wrote: »

Are you sure? I back st calvados and the shop steward told me, it was just on the first race🀔🀔

Was just the first race in shops and all online

Slattsy

mdwexford wrote: »

Samcro is the worst priced horse I’ve ever seen at the festival in 18 years.

Any horse 4/6 should be a defending champion, be unbeaten all season and have opposition who he has beaten previously. No question marks at all.

Any fancies or just hyperbole DHWexford?

Motivator

Wednesday’s card is always tricky and tomorrow is no different. Kept the powder somewhat dry today and backed plenty ew at big prices without any success.

Many are doubting Samcro after the way Elliott’s horses ran today, it’s very similar to last year with Willie’s horses after the first two days. Everyone was doubting Mullins/Walsh and look how that turned out!

I fancied a couple in the Coral Cup but I think the ground is very much against them. That 2m 5f will take some getting tomorrow.

Acey Milan in the bumper is the one I really fancy - even though I think the Balckbow/Rhinestone form is really strong - and he’ll be my main bet tomorrow. His last performance is far too good to get away from. He’ll stay on up the hill all day and I’d fancy him to battle it out with Rhinestone. He got a poor ride last time out but battled on really well, his attitude was top class.

moneymore

Have backed Duc des genievres monalee cause of causes and didtheyleaveuoutto singles and a ew lucky

Mad_Dave

1:30 Duc Des Genievres e/w and Brahma Bull e/w
2.10 Dounikos e/w Presenting Percy win
2.50 As You Were e/w and Barra e/w
3.30 Ordinary World e/w
4.50 Mastermind e/w
5.30 didtheyleaveuouttoo e/w
Small treble on Samcro, Presenting Percy and Altior.

Normstorm

Any opinions on Brahma Bull in the first race tomorrow. Currently at 33/1, down from 50/1, and unbeaten in his four runs. Main concern is that its been an awfully long time since his last race in November