FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

SleetAndSnow

The anxious wait for June 16th/17th charts is hitting me (got an 18th to plan!)

Gfs really looks to be bulling it with that high pressure , if it pulls off I'll be a wet pool during my summer exams.

spoonerhead

Obviously the bank holiday weekend coming up, myself and others will be looking for sun. GFS seems quite confident something will build towards the end of May, it’s been consistent in the medium to long term with the last few warmer spells.

Here’s hoping

squarecircles

the incredible run of high pressure continues on the gfs 12z

Ultimate Seduction

Nothing is ever a certainty I know, but seen the same outcome alot now so are we mailed on for good weather 25 may onwards? Might just make plans for a beach.

sryanbruen

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Nothing is ever a certainty I know, but seen the same outcome alot now so are we mailed on for good weather 25 may onwards? Might just make plans for a beach.

I'd still wait.

GEM likes to think differently with low pressure being the dominant influence but then again, it's the GEM so..... :P

pauldry

Id say something in the offing though RTE weather said a series of low pressures next week and GFS shows 1

Why cant all the models just agree

Its like having 3 models to predict Champions League Final

One says Madrid other Liverpool and third a Draw.

irishrover99

squarecircles wrote: »

the incredible run of high pressure continues on the gfs 12z

Please. More charts with red,yellow and blue colors.
They are a lot easier for me to understand

sryanbruen

GFS shows high pressure over us throughout and again perhaps record breaking high pressure for the end of May.

ECM though never really gets into a dominated settled spell with either southwesterlies or northerlies so not much agreement between the models.

GFS has remained consistent but ECM keeps changing.

sryanbruen

Like I said, ECM keeps changing. Now look at it for its 12z run.... showing what the GFS was showing bar weaker pressure on Sunday 27th May. GFS remains consistent.

Nevertheless, the run is settled over Ireland following Monday.





GEM has flipped for the better by the way.

sdanseo

Was using the GFS HD temperature chart for about 10 days in advance of a trip to Germany and Denmark last week. It was pretty consistent in its predictions for that whole time and pretty much bang on at +3 days.

It's starting to show that consistency over us now with a good spell of 10 days and relatively little precip starting this weekend, blip for Sunday/Monday and then right back at it.

pauldry

That GEM would bring 25c no bother

Was last May 27c

I seem to remember a warm end to it too

Meteorite58

Looks like improving temperatures next week with a good jump from about Weds. ECM showing parts reaching into 20C from Weds on and getting warmer into next weekend. Cooler on coasts, more so on the E perhaps until the Weekend. Looking promising but will have to wait and see a few more runs.

Weather looks poor in Portugal and later Spain next week but helping to draw in easterly sourced air for us for a few days .

sryanbruen

GFS 06z is something else!

sideswipe

A feast from the east!!

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

That GEM would bring 25c no bother

Was last May 27c

I seem to remember a warm end to it too

The maximum last May was 26.1c at Mount Dillon on the 26th.



GEM 12z is crazy going all out with the high pressure and easterly for next weekend.

sryanbruen

Models are beginning to show the low get very close to the south next weekend. This would likely produce some thunderstorms. Imagine if this was July or August....

sryanbruen

Nice one ECM 12z. Very warm conditions with the +12c isotherm making its way to Ireland next Sunday and Monday. Did someone mention the word scorcher? I think it's appropriate to describe this run.

Meteorite58

Models are beginning to show the low get very close to the south next weekend. This would likely produce some thunderstorms. Imagine if this was July or August....

Looks like that area of LP if it stays around Portugal /Spain could draw up warm humid air and perhaps some bands of rain. Some very early indications for thunderstorm potential especially in the Southern half of the country around that weekend. But that is over 7 days away so a lot could happen before then.

ECM is leading the way with temperature predictions over the weekend and into the early days of the following week with +20C for parts of the country.

highdef

What does the synoptic composite with a scale of 9 to 60 represent?

squarecircles

ecm 12z shows very warm temperatures in mayo next weekend and early next week, reaching up to 25 in spots.

Meteorite58

highdef wrote: »

What does the synoptic composite with a scale of 9 to 60 represent?

The scale represents the Theta E value, basically the measure of heat and moisture in the atmosphere.


Theta E : http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/324/

Click on the i symbol in blue on the weather.us page below and there is a quick tutorial giving all the other info on the synoptic chart such as jet vectors , 500mb height contours, surface pressure etc.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/europe/synoptic-composite/20180528-0000z.html

sryanbruen

+240 hrs out but as the calendar changes to meteorological Summer, the weather becomes thematically appropriate on the ECM 0z today with northern blocking to take off on the last day of May and on into the beginning of June. This forces the jet stream to go on a southerly track with low pressures coming in from the Atlantic on a northeasterly airflow. Basically, cold and wet. Quite a familiar sight ah?



The GFS is varying from run to run. For instance, the 06z was showing the high pressure moving back to the east throwing up another warm spell for early June. The 12z at the same time frame as the above ECM 0z shows high pressure just to the northwest of Ireland with cooler conditions than days preceding it. However, remaining settled despite this. After it, the high pressure builds more over top of us than to the northwest for the first week of June. So quite a disagreement between these two models. Remember that this is FI.

If you'd like a continuation of more settled conditions, GFS is your friend right now. If you'd like a breakdown with much cooler and wet conditions, ECM is your friend at the moment.

Gotta say, it is not normal for the GFS to be showing such a prolonged period of settled conditions. Usually, it wants us to go back to a normal pattern as soon as possible.

All to play for. At the moment, I don't have any money on which is more likely as I think both have an equal chance.

squarecircles

toasty.

sryanbruen

What a chart from the GFS 12z for next Monday.



Meanwhile..... the CAPE for next Monday and Tuesday (28th and 29th May).

patneve2

+15 at 850 hPa or not, temps next week will struggle to get above 18C on these coastal fringes. Damn sea breeze. Only thing missing is sea fog at this stage...In fairness though its looking very settled and dry right into the longer term!

sdanseo

patneve2 wrote: »

+15 at 850 hPa or not, temps next week will struggle to get above 18C on these coastal fringes. Damn sea breeze. Only thing missing is sea fog at this stage...In fairness though its looking very settled and dry right into the longer term!

Yeah, we need a larger HP to park itself on top of us and stay there until..September? Please?

I think the East will see a few days in the 20's. We had 19-20 on Friday and Saturday and also 10 days ago and this period will be significantly warmer if it comes off.

Mayo would be positively freezing compared to Benelux / Western Germany next week. 36 degrees forecast.

squarecircles

sdanseo wrote: »

Yeah, we need a larger HP to park itself on top of us and stay there until..September? Please?

I think the East will see a few days in the 20's. We had 19-20 on Friday and Saturday and also 10 days ago and this period will be significantly warmer if it comes off.

Mayo would be positively freezing compared to Benelux / Western Germany next week. 36 degrees forecast.

its all relative,the immediate east coast will be baltic compared to the west late this week into next weekend.
Mayo will be boiling in comparison to Reykavik. etc etc

comparing inland continental europe to the west coast of ireland is a bit pointless.

anyways looks like the heat is locked in for some,
fire up the barbie.

SleetAndSnow

Delighted to see this heat coming. It would have to be the week of my summer exams though wouldn't it? Oh well i can glaze out the window at it!

Interesting too see how the charts will be developing the rest of June, which iirc can be an iffy enough month? Sometimes warm othertimes meh

squarecircles

a cheecky 27 in the northwest,meanwhile london would easily skip to the magic 30 and above. The BENELUX on fire as usual.They must all have fabulous tans in the BENELUX.

sdanseo

sdanseo wrote: »

Mayo would be positively freezing compared to Benelux / Western Germany next week. 36 degrees forecast.

squarecircles wrote: »

comparing inland continental europe to the west coast of ireland is a bit pointless.

squarecircles wrote: »

a cheecky 27 in the northwest,meanwhile london would easily skip to the magic 30 and above. The BENELUX on fire as usual.They must all have fabulous tans in the BENELUX.

I'm a tad confused, you don't want talk of Benelux but you talk about Benelux?

The post was light hearted, and the point was that everywhere is well above normal. We regularly point to anomalies further east during an easterly to give us an idea of what's coming.