Should we stop bullying the United Kingdom?

prinzeugen

prinzeugen wrote: »

Are you sure about that? If the UK were so poor at negotiations, why did this take so long?

And how is this going to rip the UK apart? The UK is leaving the EU.

If this deal goes through, some parts will be leaving more than others.

prinzeugen

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If this deal goes through, some parts will be leaving more than others.

How?

What pisses me off is the way that twat from RTE reports. Britex = A Berlin wall between North and South.

No doubt he will be writing another book and flogging it on TV licence payers money!

prinzeugen

prinzeugen wrote: »

How?

What pisses me off is the way that twat from RTE reports. Britex = A Berlin wall between North and South.

No doubt he will be writing another book and flogging it on TV licence payers money!

Because under this proposed deal, the backstop (until something better comes along) means GB (Eng, Scot & Wal) being in a customs union, while NI in addition while have aspects of the EU single market applied to avoid a hard border with the RoI, plus the bonus of being able to sell its goods into GB AND the EU. Its a win win for NI business, but the DUP being the DUP can't see this through their ideologically generated stupidity.

Folkstonian

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Varadkar has just declared victory. :pac:

Not sure it’s over just yet.

The deal has, IMO, a 5% chance of getting through parliament.

If I was to put a 5 euro on it, I’d say no deal is the most likely outcome right now. Hard border in Ireland, carnage in Dover, and all the other associated fun...

BoatMad

Folkstonian wrote: »

Not sure it’s over just yet.

The deal has, IMO, a 5% chance of getting through parliament.

If I was to put a 5 euro on it, I’d say no deal is the most likely outcome right now. Hard border in Ireland, carnage in Dover, and all the other associated fun...

NO , No-one in the UK , except for a very small J-ReesMoog groupies wants a cliff face Brexit , thats clear from the pasting May got in this current draft agreement

Hence I think a lot of people will reflect on the fact that killing this deal will most likely cause the UK to request a delay in article 50

Again , this morning there was strong comment that certain members of the cabinet would resign , this didnt come to pass, I suspect the vote in the HoC will do the same

Folkstonian

BoatMad wrote: »

NO , No-one in the UK , except for a very small J-ReesMoog groupies wants a cliff face Brexit , thats clear from the pasting May got in this current draft agreement

Hence I think a lot of people will reflect on the fact that killing this deal will most likely cause the UK to request a delay in article 50

Again , this morning there was strong comment that certain members of the cabinet would resign , this didnt come to pass, I suspect the vote in the HoC will do the same

I’d be interested to see your calculations on the commons vote. Not sure I (or anyone) shares your confidence right now

Every indication is that absolutely nobody is happy with the deal, and May won’t have anywhere near enough support from the opposition benched to compensate for the loss of dozens of her own MPs.

Quite rightly MPs have stated they won’t be cowed into voting for a terrible deal brought about by a hapless PM because there’s nothing else on the table.

It’s no real decision to vote for either the rock or the hard place.

Unfortunately, whilst I think it’s possible it may lead to a second referendum, I think a no deal isn’t still more likely.

BoatMad

Folkstonian wrote: »

I’d be interested to see your calculations on the commons vote. Not sure I (or anyone) shares your confidence right now

Every indication is that absolutely nobody is happy with the deal, and May won’t have anywhere near enough support from the opposition benched to compensate for the loss of dozens of her own MPs.

Quite rightly MPs have stated they won’t be cowed into voting for a terrible deal brought about by a hapless PM because there’s nothing else on the table.

It’s no real decision to vote for either the rock or the hard place.

Unfortunately, whilst I think it’s possible it may lead to a second referendum, I think a no deal isn’t still more likely.

Firstly , failure to pass the deal , would force the UK to seek to extend Article 50 , May and the Tories know that a cliff face exit in march must be avoided at all costs , which is why they all tried very hard to come up with a deal .

Neither scenario brings a second referendum closer

I think a no deal isn’t still more likely.

err, double negative , so you think its unlikely to be de a no deal , so do I

Folkstonian

BoatMad wrote: »

Firstly , failure to pass the deal , would force the UK to seek to extend Article 50 , May and the Tories know that a cliff face exit in march must be avoided at all costs , which is why they all tried very hard to come up with a deal .

Neither scenario brings a second referendum closer


err, double negative , so you think its unlikely to be de a no deal , so do I

Sorry, I meant to say a no deal is more likely than a second referendum.

We will see where it goes. A majority of journalists and commentators in Britain are, as of tonight indicating that they think May’s deal hasn’t a prayer in Parliament.

Let’s hope your instincts and contacts are better than theirs I guess. But whatever outcome we end up with, I don’t think this withdrawal text will be it.

Peregrinus

Absolutely nobody (in the UK) is happy with the deal, but that's often the way with compromises. The compromise doesn't give anyone what they hoped for, but they go for it because at least it saves them from what they feared.

May will be hoping to God that enough MPs will think this way to get it over the line.

Assuming that a majority of MPs dislike the compromise (albeit for different reasons) they will certainly consider voting against it. What might dissuade them is the fear of what could happen if it is defeated.

If you dislike it because you're a remainer/a soft brexiteer, your fear would be that rejecting the deal leads to a crash-out.

If you dislike it because you're a hard brexiteer, you might have two fears:

1. Rejecting it could lead to a general election and/or a second referendum, leading ultimate to remaining.

2. Rejecting it could lead to a crash-out which, posturing notwithstanding, you know would be disastrous for most people, leading to (a) political ruin for yourself, and (b) the distinct prospect of a growing rejoin movement.

Not all hard brexiteers would be much swayed by the second consideration; there are some who fail to recognise the horrors of a crash-out, and genuinely think it would be acceptable to most people.

But, still, the perils of crash-out brexit is a fear which holds considerable traction with remainers/soft brexiters, and at least some traction with hard brexiters, so May will push this line very hard, arguing (a) the UK is not going to get a better deal out of the EU (which is true) and (b) remain is not an option. So the choice is brexitting on these terms, or a crash-out brexit.

The key to this is Labour. Notwithstanding that there will be some Labour rebels, the Labour whips control a huge voting block. They're plainly not going to support May's deal; the choice for them is between whipping against it, or whipping to abstain. If they whip to abstain, the deal will get through Parliament, regardless of what the DUP, the ERG and People's-Voters do; if they whip against it, I would think not.

So Labour will ask themselves, what happens if we defeat May's deal? What they'd like to happen is a general election, which I think (without huge confidence, but on balance) they would probably win. But, particularly with the Fixed Term Parliament Act, a general election is by no means inevitable in this circumstance. What could happen is a second referendum, which Corbyn definitely does not want. Or, of course, a crash-out, which Labour might regard as tolerable since it's the Tories who would primarily be blamed for it, and Labour would almost certainly win any general election coming after a crash-out.

On the whole, I think Corbyn will reckon that there's more upside than downside for Corbyn if May's deal is defeated in Parliament. So I'm guessing that Labour will seek to defeat it, and the prospect of their doing so must be pretty good.

BoatMad

So Labour will ask themselves, what happens if we defeat May's deal? What they'd like to happen is a general election, which I think (without huge confidence, but on balance) they would probably win. But, particularly with the Fixed Term Parliament Act, a general election is by no means inevitable in this circumstance. What could happen is a second referendum, which Corbyn definitely does not want. Or, of course, a crash-out, which Labour might regard as tolerable since it's the Tories who would primarily be blamed for it, and Labour would almost certainly win any general election coming after a crash-out.

On the whole, I think Corbyn will reckon that there's more upside than downside for Corbyn if May's deal is defeated in Parliament. So I'm guessing that Labour will seek to defeat it, and the prospect of their doing so must be pretty good.

maybe., but I think Labour will abstain

because the risk for Corbyn is (a) The Tories swap leaders and remain in power, possibly extending Article 50 to give them more time to negotiate a different deal ( which they wont get but they'll believe they can ) or (b) the pressure to have another referendum , ( which could be promised in a GE campaign ) will become unstoppable and that may lead to utter confusion or at very least an incredibly divisive campaign

Labour knows that this deal will scupper the Tories in any future GE, and they will pick up the spoils AND have a withdrawal agreement , I can see them simply abstaining and looking the other way

Laois_Man

Folkstonian wrote: »

A majority of journalists and commentators in Britain are, as of tonight indicating that they think May’s deal hasn’t a prayer in Parliament.

That would be my view too
It is in fact possible that the rebels on her own front bench alone are enough to screw her over. That's before you even count all the former front benchers who have already walked, those rebels who have never been on her front bench and the DUP

The SNP are pissed off that they might have to contend with EU trade tariffs and still have to compete for FDI with a N. Ireland who has free access to both the EU and the UK (could also hurt the RoI)

Both The Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru want a second referendum and won't back her in a fit

The one Green Party MP won't support May in a fit either!

Out of the 8 independents, she will probably get support from Frank Field and Kelvin Hopkins and she MIGHT get support from Charlie Elphicke, John Woodcock and Andrew Griffiths, she'll probably get no support from Ivan Lewis and there's not a hope in hell of getting support from Sylvia Hermon or Jared O'Mara.

So barring a decent wedge of support or abstentions from Labour - be it with permission from the party whip or be it from party rebels, I don't see that it's possible. It's the only way!

Laois_Man

BoatMad wrote: »

maybe., but I think Labour will abstain

because the risk for Corbyn is (a) The Tories swap leaders and remain in power, possibly extending Article 50 to give them more time to negotiate a different deal ( which they wont get but they'll believe they can ) or (b) the pressure to have another referendum , ( which could be promised in a GE campaign ) will become unstoppable and that may lead to utter confusion or at very least an incredibly divisive campaign

Labour knows that this deal will scupper the Tories in any future GE, and they will pick up the spoils AND have a withdrawal agreement , I can see them simply abstaining and looking the other way

IMO, if Labour decide they want this to go thru, they will do it in a much more sly way so that they have more deniability of responsibility for it. They will get as many MPs as is needed into a "rebellion" to support May, the party will suspend them, but it would all be orchestrated!

I don't believe Corbyn has any interest in becoming PM until after this is all completed - including the trading deal! No Labour leader would want to inherit and have to deal with, and ultimately be seen as partly responsible for this absolute Cluster****!

BoatMad

The SNP are pissed off that they might have to contend with EU trade tariffs and still have to compete for FDI with a N. Ireland who has free access to both the EU and the UK (could also hurt the RoI)

This would only occur if the backstop were to be activated , at present the UK has indicated it believes the trading deal would/could prevent the backstop from being activated , mind you given the time such deals take , it could be 10 years before we find out !, in the meantime I believe the transition period will be extended until such deal is completed , as the alternative is a no deal trade agreement after transition and under the transition arrangement GB is effectively inside the SM and CU as its NI ( and Scotland )

in reality it might be more likely that we'd see new EU referendum in the UK, before the transition period ends

Zubeneschamali

BoatMad wrote: »

The Tories swap leaders and remain in power, possibly extending Article 50 to give them more time to negotiate a different deal ( which they wont get but they'll believe they can )

Nope - the EU will not even consider this option. Flat no.

Amirani

BoatMad wrote: »

Again , this morning there was strong comment that certain members of the cabinet would resign , this didnt come to pass, I suspect the vote in the HoC will do the same

Well this turned out to be very wrong very quickly...

I feel sorry for Teresa May. I’d like her to stand up in parliament, hold a middle figure up in each hand and scan around all the MPs going “**** you, **** you and FURRRRK YOU. I’m outta here”. Then slip her stilettos back on and walk outta there leaving them all to it.

alchemist33

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I feel sorry for Teresa May. I’d like her to stand up in parliament, hold a middle figure up in each hand and scan around all the MPs going “**** you, **** you and FURRRRK YOU. I’m outta here”. Then slip her stilettos back on and walk outta there leaving them all to it.

To the tune of Dancing Queen, leaving them all rolling their eyes until the music suddenly shifts to "F*** that, I won't do what you told me"

Pmsl

ancapailldorcha

Schrodinger's United Kingdom. Strong enough to cut advantageous trade deals with any country in the world while being so weak it can be bullied by Ireland and Moldova.

Twenty Grand

Amirani wrote: »

Well this turned out to be very wrong very quickly...

Are we on 6 so far today?

EDIT: Gotta love the British public.

Watching a Sky News interview outside Westminster. Some passer by screams out "Brexit's not going very well, is it?" How polite.

feargale

The Examiner and Independent headlines today were no help to anyone "major win for Ireland", "victory" etc.. When you get what you want you don't rub your adversary's nose in it, and you certainly don't do so before the game is over. That is damaging to Ireland's interests, especially since stupid pride seems to be such a relevant factor from the British point of view Their unpatriotic posturing may sell papers, but, well, what's new?
As for Sinn Féin, they seek power without responsibility, the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages. No contribution for the sake of Ireland north or south. But don't worry. To go to Westminster might damage them electorally and despite their loud protestations bums on seats matter more than Ireland's welfare.

MonkieSocks

FrancieBrady

feargale wrote: »

The Examiner and Independent headlines today were no help to anyone "major win for Ireland", "victory" etc.. When you get what you want you don't rub your adversary's nose in it, and you certainly don't do so before the game is over. That is damaging to Ireland's interests, especially since stupid pride seems to be such a relevant factor from the British point of view Their unpatriotic posturing may sell papers, but, well, what's new?
As for Sinn Féin, they seek power without responsibility, the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages. No contribution for the sake of Ireland north or south. But don't worry. To go to Westminster might damage them electorally and despite their loud protestations bums on seats matter more than Ireland's welfare.

FG rejected special status for northern Ireland when Brexit appeared a possibility. SF demanded it from the get go, and stood back when FG eventually let the penny drop and heeded it. FG would say SF didn't influence them, just co-incidence of course, nothing to see here, blah blah :D

I agree otherwise, Leo should stay away from the megaphone when he wants to tell us what a great job he did.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG rejected special status for northern Ireland when Brexit appeared a possibility. SF demanded it from the get go, and stood back when FG eventually let the penny drop and heeded it. FG would say SF didn't influence them, just co-incidence of course, nothing to see here, blah blah :D

I agree otherwise, Leo should stay away from the megaphone when he wants to tell us what a great job he did.

Which way did SF campaign in the referendum?

FrancieBrady

Aegir wrote: »

Which way did SF campaign in the referendum?

Against Brexit afaik.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Against Brexit afaik.

they didn't actually register to campaign either way.

Typical Sinn Fein, not actually offering anything other than sniping from the wings at whatever outcome comes along, then trying to claim credit for it.

If you want to credit anyone with pushing the Irish Border, you really need to look at the EU's master politician himself

https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-brexit-negotiator-weve-reached-peak/

ancapailldorcha

Aegir wrote: »

they didn't actually register to campaign either way.

Typical Sinn Fein, not actually offering anything other than sniping from the wings at whatever outcome comes along, then trying to claim credit for it.

If you want to credit anyone with pushing the Irish Border, you really need to look at the EU's master politician himself

https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-brexit-negotiator-weve-reached-peak/

What is an article that is little more than gossip from August supposed to prove.

Berserker

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG rejected special status for northern Ireland when Brexit appeared a possibility. SF demanded it from the get go, and stood back when FG eventually let the penny drop and heeded it. FG would say SF didn't influence them, just co-incidence of course, nothing to see here, blah blah

SF aren't players in Brexit. They didn't even register to campaign for or against it. They are not taking their places in the London to represent the people of NI.

Berserker

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Against Brexit afaik.

Are they not Eurosceptic anymore? They were traditionally.

FrancieBrady

Aegir wrote: »

they didn't actually register to campaign either way.

Typical Sinn Fein, not actually offering anything other than sniping from the wings at whatever outcome comes along, then trying to claim credit for it.

If you want to credit anyone with pushing the Irish Border, you really need to look at the EU's master politician himself

https://www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-brexit-negotiator-weve-reached-peak/

Berserker wrote: »

SF aren't players in Brexit. They didn't even register to campaign for or against it. They are not taking their places in the London to represent the people of NI. They've been no better than some barstoolers discussing Brexit.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-to-campaign-against-brexit-in-eu-referendum-1.2476720

Pesky facts again.

McGuinness in 2016 on Special Status when FG were still ruling it out:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/16/martin-mcguinness-calls-for-special-eu-status-for-northern-ireland

Meanwhile, even into 2017, FG were rejecting 'special status'

Mr Adams also criticised the Mr Kenny's earlier speech in the Mansion House, and said he had rejected the special status for Northern Ireland.

He said this was a "deep flaw" in the Government's approach which, he said, was dictated by what the British government wants.

Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan has rejected the motion by Sinn Féin.

He said that notwithstanding the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland, terms like "special status" give rise to serious concerns for other EU partners about precedents that might be set elsewhere.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0215/852892-taoiseach-brexit-speech/