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Saturday 3rd February - Champion Hurdle Day

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    #92
    BumperD
    Registered Users Posts: 5,681 ✭✭✭BumperD


    Mr321 wrote: »
    I don't think Min will have a chance of winning at Cheltenham either. Horrible Head Carriage today also. If Altior is in the race not a hope but even if he's not I think one or 2 others could beat him.

    He beat the reigning champ by 13L. Thought he was very impressive today


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    #93
    Johner
    Registered Users Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    The tactics today on Min worked nicely, he will get that same pace to aim at at Cheltenham as well so will go close.

    Faugheen ran a blinder but just isn’t the same horse, Buveir D’air won’t have to break sweat in March, he’s some animal.


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    #94
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    The underrated Mick Jazz did well to place off a slow pace, he'll love a truly run affair and might have an e/w squeak come March.


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    #95
    WickIow Brave
    Closed Accounts Posts: 620 ✭✭✭WickIow Brave


    I'm balls deep on Melon for the Champion Hurdle so I have to keep the faith. Yesterday was really disappointing. He went from 3.85 out to like 6.4 just before the off.


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    #96
    Johner
    Registered Users Posts: 21,625 ✭✭✭✭Johner


    Melon just isn’t that good, would be doing well to place.


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    #97
    Shemale
    Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Shemale


    NaiveMelodies wrote: »

    Best thing about you is you genuinely think you know something about horse racing.

    What are you on about?

    That Berry and Brynes dont know the plan for the horse or Katies horse was ever going to beat it


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    #98
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Motivator wrote: »
    I thought Jezki was value for a place today but my heart ruled my head and it was a silly bet. As is backing Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle. One thing I will say is I was wrong as around November I didn’t think he’d still be in training at this stage such were my doubts about him but he still won’t win a Champion Hurdle.

    Yes, today’s race was great for excitement etc but let’s be honest, they weren’t top quality 2m horses. The fact that Harrington said BEFORE and AFTER the race was a prep run for the stayers next month tells you all you need to know about the race.

    Quick look at today’s race:

    Faugheen - was top class, isn’t any more

    Jezki - was top class, isn’t any more. No Grade 1 in 4 years

    Melon - no thanks

    Bapaume - not a proper Grade 1 horse

    Mick Jazz - solid horse but not Champion Hurdle class

    Defi Du Seuil - as can often happen Triumph winners, just doesn’t progress after looking potentially top class

    Identity Thief - the wheels have come off his career

    Supasundae - good solid horse but is he really a top class two miler? No he isn’t

    Not really sure as to what point you are trying to make? Are you of the belief that there is a whole host of top class two milers in England?


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    #99
    Shemale
    Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Shemale


    Good jaysus


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    #100
    Earendil
    Registered Users Posts: 809 ✭✭✭Earendil


    Shemale wrote: »
    Best thing about you is you genuinely think you know something about horse racing

    Fired that at the wrong person.


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    #101
    Lloyderz
    Registered Users Posts: 128 ✭✭Lloyderz


    Lloyderz wrote: »
    13.10
    Between the front two in the market. Dortmund Park and Carter McCkay. Dortmund Park very impressive the other day, but at the prices I'll side with Carter McKay 7/2. A nice run in behind Getabird last time out, and will appreciate the step up in trip being an ex-p2p horse who won over 3m (heavy) between the flags.

    13.45
    Yorkhill 5/6 Jumped lovely in his first circuit around Leopardstown the last day before finding 3m too much. Paul choosing him over Min further cements the confidence.

    14.20
    Footpad 4/7 wins this and the Arkle at Cheltenham. Demi Sang 5/1 w/o Footpad the bet at the odds.

    14.55
    Kilfenora 10/1 ew Already getting heavily backed. A winner at Navan over 2m on heavy ground and bottom weight of 9-10.

    15.30
    Faugheen 11/10 will be back to his best and win. Take the price 11/4 for the champion hurdle tonight. Supasundae 22/1 e/w. Gave Apples Jade a race the last day.


    16.05
    Off You Go 7/1 for Charles Byrnes. He is off 123 and needs to go up a good few pounds to go to Cheltenham for the likes of the Martin Pipe. Nice low weight.


    16.40
    I think this is one of the best bumpers Leopardstown has ever seen. Plenty of ex P2P horses in the mix. 8 of 9 in the field have all won last time out. For me Blackbow 5/2 is my pick. I know Patrick speaks very highly of this horse, and the way he battled to win his race at Leopardstown over Christmas tells you he is tough. At bigger odds Brace Yourself 12/1 is a solid bet e/w. Couldn't of been more impressive when winning by 24l in Down Royal.

    Not a bad day. Great to see big numbers attending over the 2 days. Already looking forward to next years festival.


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    #102
    Gavin "shels"
    Registered Users Posts: 17,964 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    abarkie wrote: »
    Ticket collection dire at Leopardstown.

    Queued for an hour to get in.

    Missed first race.

    Course totally unprepared for the size of crowd or certainly the number of people collecting tickets.

    An absolute joke - jokingly said to my GF we should just pay in at the gate rather than stay in the queue...


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    #103
    Francie Barrett
    Registered Users Posts: 16,490 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    Drift on Yorkhill said it all.
    https://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2018/0205/938576-ihrb-investigate-leopardstown-betting-patterns/
    The Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board is investigating the betting patterns surrounding two races at Leopardstown on Saturday.

    Melon drifted moments before the start of the BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle in which he eventually finished fifth, while Yorkhill was easy to back before coming home sixth in the Dublin Chase.

    IHRB chief executive Denis Egan believes both races merit further examination.

    He said: "It's just suspicious betting patterns we are looking at, it may be nothing but we are investigating.

    "There were some lay bets in two races we felt required further examination.

    "We are awaiting the relevant information and we hope to have that in the next couple of days, then we can decide whether to investigate further."
    Yet some people here will tell you that horses drifting and coming nowhere in the betting is all just a conspiracy theory.


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    #104
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    Francie Barrett wrote: »
    https://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2018/0205/938576-ihrb-investigate-leopardstown-betting-patterns/

    Yet some people here will tell you that horses drifting and coming nowhere in the betting is all just a conspiracy theory.

    Most of the time it is a conspiracy. How were both horses so short to begin with? Market just sorting itself out as liquidity arrived I'd guess.


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    #105
    handsfree2
    Registered Users Posts: 298 ✭✭handsfree2


    posturingpat wrote: »
    Most of the time it is a conspiracy. How were both horses so short to begin with? Market just sorting itself out as liquidity arrived I'd guess.

    Hmmm, I think that if that was the case there drift would have started early and found a steady state earlier. A drift just before the off would indicate that whoever laid off was waiting for maximum liquidity before dumping. That is suspicious.


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    #106
    Motivator
    Registered Users Posts: 2,762 ✭✭✭Motivator


    danganabu wrote: »
    Not really sure as to what point you are trying to make? Are you of the belief that there is a whole host of top class two milers in England?

    My point is that if Faugheen had any chance of winning the Champion Hurdle next month he should have destroyed that field. I can’t understand how people can be encouraged by Saturday’s run and still want to back him for the big one in March.


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    #107
    hawaii501
    Registered Users Posts: 1,074 ✭✭✭hawaii501


    Great 2 days racing, already looking forward to next years even without a winner!

    Onky bad thing was the queue for collection of tickets. Ended up just paying in as had just arrived at 1-05. Know people who would have been 100+ ahead of me waiting over an hour.


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    #108
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Motivator wrote: »
    My point is that if Faugheen had any chance of winning the Champion Hurdle next month he should have destroyed that field. I can’t understand how people can be encouraged by Saturday’s run and still want to back him for the big one in March.

    Outside of the fav there is no other piece of form that betters it and it was pretty clear that PT was extremely easy on the horse, Mullins will have also left plenty to work on considering what had happened the last time. He is a stonking e/w bet imo.


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    #109
    lemush
    Registered Users Posts: 680 ✭✭✭lemush


    danganabu wrote: »
    Outside of the fav there is no other piece of form that betters it and it was pretty clear that PT was extremely easy on the horse, Mullins will have also left plenty to work on considering what had happened the last time. He is a stonking e/w bet imo.

    Spot on.


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    #110
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    danganabu wrote: »
    Outside of the fav there is no other piece of form that betters it and it was pretty clear that PT was extremely easy on the horse, Mullins will have also left plenty to work on considering what had happened the last time. He is a stonking e/w bet imo.

    Went from absolutely destroying everything he faced to pulling up and not finding anything wrong with him, to being readily beaten by a good horse but no superstar in Supasundae with Mick Jazz a handicapper under 5 lengths back in third. Find it very hard to be as satisfied as you are. I'd rather back him to not finish than back him to win tbh


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    #111
    Fanny Wank
    Registered Users Posts: 1,288 ✭✭✭Fanny Wank


    Peintre Celebre wrote: »
    Went from absolutely destroying everything he faced to pulling up and not finding anything wrong with him, to being readily beaten by a good horse but no superstar in Supasundae with Mick Jazz a handicapper under 5 lengths back in third. Find it very hard to be as satisfied as you are. I'd rather back him to not finish than back him to win tbh

    Similarly I'd rather lay for a place then back to win (price dependent)


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    #112
    Shemale
    Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Shemale


    It's true Faugheen was way below his best the other day but it was encouraging, there was a flash of Faugheen at the 2nd last.

    Well worth a play given at the best NRNB price given Buveur D'air is 2/5 and after that I would be looking at My Tent or maybe Apples with her allowance if she lines up.


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    #113
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Peintre Celebre wrote: »
    Went from absolutely destroying everything he faced to pulling up and not finding anything wrong with him, to being readily beaten by a good horse but no superstar in Supasundae with Mick Jazz a handicapper under 5 lengths back in third. Find it very hard to be as satisfied as you are. I'd rather back him to not finish than back him to win tbh

    Your kind of making my arguement for me, said handicapper is as low as 16/1, the race has absolutely zero depth to it at all.


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    #114
    Peintre Celebre
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Peintre Celebre


    danganabu wrote: »
    Your kind of making my arguement for me, said handicapper is as low as 16/1, the race has absolutely zero depth to it at all.

    I wouldnt say i am. Race has no depth and i still wouldnt be backing Faugheen


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    #115
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    Peintre Celebre wrote: »
    I wouldnt say i am. Race has no depth and i still wouldnt be backing Faugheen

    That's fair enough and there very well maybe a certain element of nostalgia influencing my decision but I just dont see Mullins running the horse if he doesnt feel he has a better chance than the 7/1 NRNB suggests.


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