Match preview & thread: FRA vs IRE (Sat Feb 3, 1645)

MJohnston

We obviously can't get into the circumstances, but the critical nature of the lineout in this match is partly why I'm very disappointed in Rory Best getting himself into the middle of a PR sh!tstorm. He really doesn't need the mental distraction that that is inevitably causing.

MJohnston

Trojan wrote: »

France in RWC 2011.

That is all.

I'm more worried about France in RWC 2015 - win or lose, an injury list on the level of that match is going to be a disaster.

MattD

If I was France I'd be attacking our lineout maul defense which I'd worry about slightly. There's a few players there who I wouldn't be surprised of not getting the maul defense right and bringing it down (POM, Healy, Henderson) and not a lot of players who have the guile/cuteness to do it properly. Like Montpellier did to Leinster twice, a good lineout maul move and/or a penalty try for bringing one down would put us hugely on the back foot.

Our backline does shoot up a bit in defense, particularly in the centre, to try and isolate the ball before it goes wide. If France can observe that, I think there's a lot of space in the width of the pitch that Ireland don't defend as well.

Jump_In_Jack

The weather will be cold (3degC), wet (light rain) and very cloudy.
https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/six_nations_weather.asp

The pitch surface is likely to be immaculate, hybrid grass/artificial fibre construction, however it may be quite cold and hard.
An interesting fact about Stade de France it was built without under pitch heating (unusual for modern stadiums), which explains why Ireland V France was cancelled in 2012 for a frozen pitch.

Therefore, this match is likely to be played at a slower pace, keeping possession will be crucial, as will converting possession into points as regularly as possible.
This match could be a repeat of 2016; a tight affair where rain soaked pitch made handling errors more likely.
What is the likely outcome of these conditions?
Ireland have selected a mobile pack. All of the tight 5 are able ball-carriers with excellent handling skills, and the back row are proficient in their distinct roles; O’Mahony will poach at the breakdown and to add his spring to the lineout, Van der Flier will add his engine to the tackling rate and will hit every ruck, Stander to take on every ball handed to him with a head of steam and try to get Ireland moving forward in the tight exchanges.
All of the above combined means Ireland have the potential to work the French team around the pitch for long periods while retaining possession to test out the French pack’s fitness and ability to defend.
In those weather conditions, neither set of backs will likely see much ball, so defence and handling will be important as well as being clinical with limited opportunities.
The Irish backline have a confidence in their ability to deliver tries off of set-piece moves, and should have the edge over France there.
All in all, France have good individual players, but the technical edge around the break-down and defence may be in Ireland’s favour, so expecting Ireland to wrestle a win by a score after an exhausting 80 minutes.

molloyjh

MattD wrote: »

If I was France I'd be attacking our lineout maul defense which I'd worry about slightly. There's a few players there who I wouldn't be surprised of not getting the maul defense right and bringing it down (POM, Healy, Henderson) and not a lot of players who have the guile/cuteness to do it properly. Like Montpellier did to Leinster twice, a good lineout maul move and/or a penalty try for bringing one down would put us hugely on the back foot.

Our backline does shoot up a bit in defense, particularly in the centre, to try and isolate the ball before it goes wide. If France can observe that, I think there's a lot of space in the width of the pitch that Ireland don't defend as well.

I think our defensive system against any team with ball in hand is generally very good at the moment. It's the space behind that might catch us out, like it did against Argentina. Which is possibly one of the reasons McGrath is ahead of Marmion. He's really an excellent sweeper in that type of defensive set-up, for me the best at that role of the 4 scrum halves.

MJohnston

MJohnston wrote: »

We obviously can't get into the circumstances, but the critical nature of the lineout in this match is partly why I'm very disappointed in Rory Best getting himself into the middle of a PR sh!tstorm. He really doesn't need the mental distraction that that is inevitably causing.

Jaysus there is going to be zero effects on the lineout as a result of Best visiting a court house

kuang1

kuang1 wrote: »

Yes but I think we've evolved beyond a point at which we could be "caught napping". For one score sure possibly.
But for the duration of a whole game, for the forwards to fail to slow down french ball sufficiently...I just can't see it.

I mean we got caught napping this time last year so we probably haven't. Every team in the world gets caught napping so not sure why you think we've evolved beyond that

swiwi_

OK, I found a moment at work to whip up a preview. Please don't tell my boss. Thanks.

irishbucsfan

Anabelle Millions Celery wrote: »

I mean we got caught napping this time last year so we probably haven't. Every team in the world gets caught napping so not sure why you think we've evolved beyond that

I believe it was the bus driver who was napping last year

MJohnston

Deleted User wrote: »

Jaysus there is going to be zero effects on the lineout as a result of Best visiting a court house

If international rugby these days is an intensely detail-oriented game, psychology is obviously a part of that. And it's stupid to be giving yourself such hassle of distractions right before a game. Unless Joe pre-approved it, I'd imagine he's fuming.

I think 'zero effects' is incorrect, I don't think it's going to play a big part, but if it's even a very minor distraction, it was a bad idea.

I'm actually starting to get annoyed it's not Saturday yet.

Stheno

swiwi_ wrote: »

OK, I found a moment at work to whip up a preview. Please don't tell my boss. Thanks.

There are no tables :eek:

Yeah_Right

Trojan wrote: »

France in RWC 2011.

That is all.

I agree. They lost three matches in that tournament and I think they'll lose three in this tournament too.

swiwi_

Stheno wrote: »

There are no tables :eek:

I'm dyslexic. Probably ending up posting pictures of a chair.

Yeah_Right

Stheno wrote: »

There are no tables :eek:

The only tables us kiwis use are BBQ tables.

Kevski

Does anyone know any good places to watch the match in Amsterdam?

.ak

Kevski wrote: »

Does anyone know any good places to watch the match in Amsterdam?

O’Reilly’s, watched the Chicago match there. Great game.

Yeah_Right

Yeah_Right wrote: »

The only tables us kiwis use are BBQ tables.

I think you use a few others...

Bazzo

kuang1 wrote: »

Well I was asking while applying the assumption that there'd be no bizarre stuff like an early red card.
(Who'd be most likely to get a red actually...Aki?
Healy? Sexton?)

Aki has only gotten something like one yellow card in the last 4 years, and his only citing/suspension was for whatever he said to the ref that time(I can't remember), Sexton probably something similar or even less. It's definitely Healy by a country mile.

Sangre

Bazzo wrote: »

Aki has only gotten something like one yellow card in the last 4 years, and his only citing/suspension was for whatever he said to the ref that time(I can't remember), Sexton probably something similar or even less. It's definitely Healy by a country mile.

Healy or Earls.

Sangre

Sangre wrote: »

Healy or Earls.

I'd say Conway has the most cards over the last two years. Next would be a toss up between Healy and Earls.

aloooof

Sangre wrote: »

Healy or Earls.

Is Earls that much of a risk? Last time I can remember him getting a yellow was against Glasgow in Thomond in Europe last season, and I don't think anyone could blame him for that, that day.

Noopti

I would probably be a bit more concerned about this game, if it wasn't for the fact we messed up that game in Scotland last year.

You can bet everything on the fact that that will not happen again. Ireland will be 100% focused and ready to bring intensity, but also composure, to this game. Especially in the first quarter.

Still think we will win by about 15 points (or more).

iancm25

aloooof wrote: »

Sangre wrote: »

Healy or Earls.

Is Earls that much of a risk? Last time I can remember him getting a yellow was against Glasgow in Thomond in Europe last season, and I don't think anyone could blame him for that, that day.

That was a red card for Earlsy against Glasgow. And rightly so. Gotta think that the emotional energy that day got him. I doubt if the same applies tomorrow.

Sangre

aloooof wrote: »

Is Earls that much of a risk? Last time I can remember him getting a yellow was against Glasgow in Thomond in Europe last season, and I don't think anyone could blame him for that, that day.

Not really but compared to the rest of the team he definitely has a worse track record. Not surprising given the focus Joe puts on discipline.

accensi0n

If we end up winning by 20+ points, should we just cancel the world cup now? Why bother going through the motions like.

kuang1

Bazzo wrote: »

Aki has only gotten something like one yellow card in the last 4 years, and his only citing/suspension was for whatever he said to the ref that time(I can't remember), Sexton probably something similar or even less. It's definitely Healy by a country mile.

Yeah fair enough. Only mentioned Aki due to how pumped he was in that first minute of his debut. (Great to see and he did absolutely nothing illegal, but sent one of the SA front row to the medical room. As long as the aggression is controlled, it can be intense as he likes!)

Stander was the last red card an Irish player got right? What was the one before that? Heaslip in NZ?

Skyfloater

So, if either Aki or Henshaw get injured, who goes where? Could we see Sexton sliding across to 1st centre and Carbery in? The thought of Earls in the centre doesn't fill me with confidence.

aloooof

Skyfloater wrote: »

So, if either Aki or Henshaw get injured, who goes where? Could we see Sexton sliding across to 1st centre and Carbery in? The thought of Earls in the centre doesn't fill me with confidence.

Stockdale maybe? Or Ferg?

Skyfloater

Skyfloater wrote: »

So, if either Aki or Henshaw get injured, who goes where? Could we see Sexton sliding across to 1st centre and Carbery in? The thought of Earls in the centre doesn't fill me with confidence.

If we lose a centre Earls will move in and Ferg will go to the wing. If we lose another then Carbery will go to wing and Ferg will move to centre.

If we lost another then Stockdale will go to centre and Luke Mc Grath will go on the wing. If we lose another Carbery will have to slot in and we'll be at Italy 2013 levels and might get to witness the joy that is Peter O'Mahony on the wing!

We've actually ran into similar problems against Australia last season and did ok so I think all these guys are comfortable in system Joe.