Match preview & thread: FRA vs IRE (Sat Feb 3, 1645)

swiwi_

Date: Saturday, February 3
Venue: Stade de France, Paris
Kick-off: 17:45 local (16:45 GMT)
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes (England), Paul Williams (New Zealand)
TMO: Rowan Kitt (England)


FRANCE: 15 Geoffrey Palis, 14 Teddy Thomas, 13 Rémi Lamerat, 12 Henry Chavancy, 11 Virimi Vakatawa, 10 Matthieu Jalibert, 9 Maxime Machenaud, 8 Kevin Gourdon, 7 Yacouba Camara, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Sébastien Vahaamahina, 4 Arthur Iturria, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado (c), 1 Jefferson Poirot

Replacements: 16 Adrien Pelissié, 17 Dany Priso, 18 Cedate Gomes Sa, 19 Paul Gabrillagues, 20 Marco Tauleigne, 21 Antoine Dupont, 22 Anthony Belleau, 23 Benjamin Fall


IRELAND: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 Jacob Stockdale, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 CJ Stander, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 James Ryan, 4 Iain Henderson, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy

Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 John Ryan, 19 Devin Toner, 20 Dan Leavy, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Joey Carbery, 23 Fergus McFadden


The build-up to this week’s much anticipated opening round of the 6N and Ireland’s clash with les Tricolores has been dominated by a series of appalling puns from posters who really should know better.

Fortunately this poster steered well clear of such frivolities, and instead devoted himself to a detailed analysis of the respective starting XVs, their benches, and the physical and mental state of Monsieur Brunel and Herr Schmidt.

So without further ado, let’s have a look at those who will do battle - but hopefully not die more than figuratively - for their countries. Ireland come off the back of an eminently successful international autumn series, where they were expected to win, and did just that. With style. In fact the win over South Africa was something of a statement. Allowing for the loss to, and return from, injury, Joe Schmidt has stuck with the core of the players who did the Green shirt proud.

Notwithstanding Leinster provincial form, there is possibly a slight surprise in seeing Healy preferred to McGrath, and in a bold move J Ryan has been preferred to Devin Toner at lock. Please note that that is James Ryan and not John Ryan – there is bold and then there is just f*ck*n stupid. A fair amount of electronic print has been spilt on the forum debating the form of POM and Stander, but I 100% support their selection at this stage as their at times mediocre Munster showings have not so far translated into poor international offerings. If they keep performing for Ireland, Uncle Joe will not be too concerned about provincial form.

Turning to the backs, and for the first time ever (at least since I follow Ireland), there is a real feel of a NZ-style backline, with a power 12, who has more to his game than simply muscle, and some dashing outside backs: a rejuvenated Kearney, an impressive Earls in the last 18 months or so, and the up-and-coming highly talented Stockdale. A few rough edges on Jacob, yet, but he looks a keeper. All this, alloyed to the world class half-back pairing of Murray and Sexton. Off the Irish bench, I’m probably most intrigued to see what Leavy and Carberry can bring.

Turning to France, and on first viewing I’d say they have a strong midfield, an exciting openside (Camara), although from memory he might be more of a 6, and a solid front row. There are quite a few unknowns in this French side, not least their flyhalf, whom I’m guessing most haven’t heard of before, let alone see play. On their bench, Dany Priso has had a couple of decent games for La Rochelle - he brings some speedy impact a bit like Sean Cronin.

In terms of the game, I expect Ireland to be highly structured and well organised. The main question will be the ability to adapt if things don’t go as planned, which unfortunately often means Sexton limping off after 20 minutes or so after some courageous but ultimately injury-inducing tackle. Hopefully, he won’t be illegally targeted. The basics of the set-piece, highly organised defence etc are a given with Ireland these days, but it will be interesting to see how expansive Ireland’s play is, with the 6N retaining the bonus point into the foreseeable future.

France I expect to start with a degree of fire and brimstone, it sounds like the new coach is popular in the camp, and they do have some talented players. But talent alone rarely cuts it at top international level, and unless they have a degree of structure and and a plan to unlock Ireland’s defence, they will come up short.

Prediction: I expect this game to be fairly close for 50 to 60 minutes, but Ireland to pull away with 10 points or so to spare. No repeat of last year please, with an insipid first up defeat. Sláinte!

NollagShona

IRE or IRL?

stephen_n

swiwi_ wrote: »

**I will insert the preview here before the sun sets today - c'est promis!**

With tables and pictures of course? There are standards to be kept!

Buer

NollagShona wrote: »

IRE or IRL?

The question is whether the use of IRL would prompt ire from some quarters?

swiwi_

Buer wrote: »

The question is whether the use of IRL would prompt ire from some quarters?

For those wondering, yes I also post under the pseudonym Buer.

Quint2010

Three out of four BBC pundits-Guscott, Davies, POC have tipped Ireland for the championship with only Andy Nicol tipping England. Very surprising. All four also name checked Lamour as their young player to watch out for.

stephen_n

Quint2010 wrote: »

Three out of four BBC pundits-Guscott, Davies, POC have tipped Ireland for the championship with only Andy Nicol tipping England. Very surprising. All four also name checked Lamour as their young player to watch out for.

I’m sure Eddie Jones would love that, England have to be favorites by virtue of the fact they have us at home. I reckon we will either do the slam or they will probably win the championship, if they haven’t won all their games enroute to Paddy’s day.

NollagShona

Buer wrote: »

The question is whether the use of IRL would prompt ire from some quarters?

IRL or just online?

Buer

swiwi_ wrote: »

For those wondering, yes I also post under the pseudonym Buer.

Rattlehead_ie

I'd hope to think, Ireland should be able to do this and maybe even take a bonus point back home. They are the more structured team, well trained, well disciplined and know their roles 1 - 23.

However, while you never underestimate a French side. I would be a lil fearful of a team with nothing to lose, new coach, couple of newbies with a "throw it around" attitude and honestly the French fans probably would be more forgiving to a French side with such a new structure on and off pitch at least for the 1st game at least.

Still, heart and head says Ireland by 12

I'm a little concerned by our backrow tomorrow. We only have one ball carrier in it and he (imo) is a little off his game and has been for a while. If we just try to play this one out runner stuff we're so fond of then I think we'll struggle.

Sangre

Joslyn Tender Sucker wrote: »

I'm a little concerned by our backrow tomorrow. We only have one ball carrier in it and he (imo) is a little off his game and has been for a while. If we just try to play this one out runner stuff we're so fond of then I think we'll struggle.

Usually I'd agree but our whole tight five are competent ball carriers so should make up for it. We also have quite a big backline.

aloooof

Joslyn Tender Sucker wrote: »

I'm a little concerned by our backrow tomorrow. We only have one ball carrier in it and he (imo) is a little off his game and has been for a while. If we just try to play this one out runner stuff we're so fond of then I think we'll struggle.

I think this is why Schmidt favoured Ryan over Toner in the 2nd row, to give an added ball carrier around the park and still allow him to pick the backrow he did. Personally, I really like the balance in our backrow, I'm expecting VdF to get through an amount of work and really put pressure on Jalibert.

I wonder will we kick to their debutant FB much as well?

molloyjh

With Healy, Furlong, Henderson, Ryan and Stander we should be okay for ball carriers. And both Aki and Henshaw can fill in there if needed too. I wouldn't be at all worried about that element of our game. We have McGrath, Ryan and Leavy on the bench then too from that perspective.

kuang1

So I've just had a conversation with a mate of mine.
We were trying to figure out a way in which Ireland could lose this game tomorrow. (Assuming team bus is on time, that we don't suffer 4 injuries in the first 7 minutes, no sendings off etc.)

We couldn't answer our own question.
This worries me though. Every team is beatable in this competition...so barring freaky incidents, how could this game play out, and we lose?

Edit: genuine question.

budhabob

kuang1 wrote: »

So I've just had a conversation with a mate of mine.
We were trying to figure out a way in which Ireland could lose this game tomorrow. (Assuming team bus is on time, that we don't suffer 4 injuries in the first 7 minutes, no sendings off etc.)

We couldn't answer our own question.
This worries me though. Every team is beatable in this competition...so barring freaky incidents, how could this game play out, and we lose?

Edit: genuine question.

They score more points than us?

kuang1

budhabob wrote: »

They score more points than us?

And here's a jelly for you. Very good.
Now for 2 jellies...
How do they manage to score more points than us?

ClanofLams

Ireland should have enough to win this with a degree of comfort. A week ago I was very confident they would do so but the closer we get to k.o time the more I get a nagging feeling that the French are going to make this very tricky.

Stheno

kuang1 wrote: »

And here's a jelly for you. Very good.
Now for 2 jellies...
How do they manage to score more points than us?

Healy has one of his brainfarts and gets sent off?

ClanofLams

Ireland can very conceivably lose, a first half like we saw in Murrayfield last year would be enough. They should win however.

kuang1

Stheno wrote: »

Healy has one of his brainfarts and gets sent off?

Well I was asking while applying the assumption that there'd be no bizarre stuff like an early red card.
(Who'd be most likely to get a red actually...Aki?
Healy? Sexton?)

irishbucsfan

kuang1 wrote: »

So I've just had a conversation with a mate of mine.
We were trying to figure out a way in which Ireland could lose this game tomorrow. (Assuming team bus is on time, that we don't suffer 4 injuries in the first 7 minutes, no sendings off etc.)

We couldn't answer our own question.
This worries me though. Every team is beatable in this competition...so barring freaky incidents, how could this game play out, and we lose?

Edit: genuine question.

Irish set piece falls apart. Jalibert plays a very simple but effective game on his debut, kicks well into the corners, Irish set piece failure prevents us getting out of our own half, France win a tight scrappy game.

pickarooney

The most likely route to a French win is an early try and successful use of their back row to run at small spaces, offload from the floor and basically catch Ireland napping.

kuang1

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Irish set piece falls apart. Jalibert plays a very simple but effective game on his debut, kicks well into the corners, Irish set piece failure prevents us getting out of our own half, France win a tight scrappy game.

Indeed.
Someone had said (could have been you ibf but not sure) that there'll be a lot of weight on Best's shoulders to get the lineouts bang on. Which is v true.
That was probably the main contributing reason to the debacle in Murrayfield last year.

ClanofLams

The backline is solid. Would have slight concern over Stockdale - nothing to do with his ability, think he’s likely to be starting for Ireland for the best part of a decade fitness providing but he has had a rough month so hopefully his confidence hasn’t been dented.

Main worry would be lineout, lot of focus on Best going in, Toner not calling it for the first time in the 6N in years (probably?) won’t help.

Backrow needs to deliver. POM and Stander usually step up but neither are in their best form.

molloyjh

kuang1 wrote: »

And here's a jelly for you. Very good.
Now for 2 jellies...
How do they manage to score more points than us?

Maybe they perform really well? It's highly unlikely, but the thing with the French is that it's not utterly unheard of that they buck the trend of recent form to beat a team that are favoured by all and sundry. There are some very talented individuals in that side let's not forget.

The weather is meant to be a bit crappy tomorrow as well. I don't think that will help us as it could see the game being dragged into a bit of a dogfight, like 2 years ago. And any low scoring game in the 6Ns can go either way. They just need to be stubborn and dogged and they can stay in the game, which is all they'll need up to the last 10. Personally I'd prefer a clear, dry day where we can look to play a bit more.

Still though, we are rightly favourites for this. If we turn up and deliver even 90% of what we're capable of we should win.

kuang1

pickarooney wrote: »

The most likely route to a French win is an early try and successful use of their back row to run at small spaces, offload from the floor and basically catch Ireland napping.

Yes but I think we've evolved beyond a point at which we could be "caught napping". For one score sure possibly.
But for the duration of a whole game, for the forwards to fail to slow down french ball sufficiently...I just can't see it.

arsebiscuits1

Most lineout problems would be rectified by lifting POM at the front

stephen_n

kuang1 wrote: »

Indeed.
Someone had said (could have been you ibf but not sure) that there'll be a lot of weight on Best's shoulders to get the lineouts bang on. Which is v true.
That was probably the main contributing reason to the debacle in Murrayfield last year.

Going by the stats, our inability to defend line outs may be more of an issue, than Bests throwing into them. If the French can manage territory through Jalibert, then they might be able to force penalties inside our half and kick for the corners. That being said, we don’t concede a lot of penalties, so hopefully that won’t be an issue. As long as our scrum stays solid, we should be good.

arsebiscuits1

arsebiscuits1 wrote: »

Most lineout problems would be rectified by lifting POM at the front

Don't even need to lift him, he's that good at the front.

Trojan

France in RWC 2011.

That is all.

MJohnston

We obviously can't get into the circumstances, but the critical nature of the lineout in this match is partly why I'm very disappointed in Rory Best getting himself into the middle of a PR sh!tstorm. He really doesn't need the mental distraction that that is inevitably causing.

MJohnston

Trojan wrote: »

France in RWC 2011.

That is all.

I'm more worried about France in RWC 2015 - win or lose, an injury list on the level of that match is going to be a disaster.

MattD

If I was France I'd be attacking our lineout maul defense which I'd worry about slightly. There's a few players there who I wouldn't be surprised of not getting the maul defense right and bringing it down (POM, Healy, Henderson) and not a lot of players who have the guile/cuteness to do it properly. Like Montpellier did to Leinster twice, a good lineout maul move and/or a penalty try for bringing one down would put us hugely on the back foot.

Our backline does shoot up a bit in defense, particularly in the centre, to try and isolate the ball before it goes wide. If France can observe that, I think there's a lot of space in the width of the pitch that Ireland don't defend as well.

Jump_In_Jack

The weather will be cold (3degC), wet (light rain) and very cloudy.
https://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/six_nations_weather.asp

The pitch surface is likely to be immaculate, hybrid grass/artificial fibre construction, however it may be quite cold and hard.
An interesting fact about Stade de France it was built without under pitch heating (unusual for modern stadiums), which explains why Ireland V France was cancelled in 2012 for a frozen pitch.

Therefore, this match is likely to be played at a slower pace, keeping possession will be crucial, as will converting possession into points as regularly as possible.
This match could be a repeat of 2016; a tight affair where rain soaked pitch made handling errors more likely.
What is the likely outcome of these conditions?
Ireland have selected a mobile pack. All of the tight 5 are able ball-carriers with excellent handling skills, and the back row are proficient in their distinct roles; O’Mahony will poach at the breakdown and to add his spring to the lineout, Van der Flier will add his engine to the tackling rate and will hit every ruck, Stander to take on every ball handed to him with a head of steam and try to get Ireland moving forward in the tight exchanges.
All of the above combined means Ireland have the potential to work the French team around the pitch for long periods while retaining possession to test out the French pack’s fitness and ability to defend.
In those weather conditions, neither set of backs will likely see much ball, so defence and handling will be important as well as being clinical with limited opportunities.
The Irish backline have a confidence in their ability to deliver tries off of set-piece moves, and should have the edge over France there.
All in all, France have good individual players, but the technical edge around the break-down and defence may be in Ireland’s favour, so expecting Ireland to wrestle a win by a score after an exhausting 80 minutes.

molloyjh

MattD wrote: »

If I was France I'd be attacking our lineout maul defense which I'd worry about slightly. There's a few players there who I wouldn't be surprised of not getting the maul defense right and bringing it down (POM, Healy, Henderson) and not a lot of players who have the guile/cuteness to do it properly. Like Montpellier did to Leinster twice, a good lineout maul move and/or a penalty try for bringing one down would put us hugely on the back foot.

Our backline does shoot up a bit in defense, particularly in the centre, to try and isolate the ball before it goes wide. If France can observe that, I think there's a lot of space in the width of the pitch that Ireland don't defend as well.

I think our defensive system against any team with ball in hand is generally very good at the moment. It's the space behind that might catch us out, like it did against Argentina. Which is possibly one of the reasons McGrath is ahead of Marmion. He's really an excellent sweeper in that type of defensive set-up, for me the best at that role of the 4 scrum halves.

MJohnston

MJohnston wrote: »

We obviously can't get into the circumstances, but the critical nature of the lineout in this match is partly why I'm very disappointed in Rory Best getting himself into the middle of a PR sh!tstorm. He really doesn't need the mental distraction that that is inevitably causing.

Jaysus there is going to be zero effects on the lineout as a result of Best visiting a court house

kuang1

kuang1 wrote: »

Yes but I think we've evolved beyond a point at which we could be "caught napping". For one score sure possibly.
But for the duration of a whole game, for the forwards to fail to slow down french ball sufficiently...I just can't see it.

I mean we got caught napping this time last year so we probably haven't. Every team in the world gets caught napping so not sure why you think we've evolved beyond that

swiwi_

OK, I found a moment at work to whip up a preview. Please don't tell my boss. Thanks.

irishbucsfan

Anabelle Millions Celery wrote: »

I mean we got caught napping this time last year so we probably haven't. Every team in the world gets caught napping so not sure why you think we've evolved beyond that

I believe it was the bus driver who was napping last year

MJohnston

Deleted User wrote: »

Jaysus there is going to be zero effects on the lineout as a result of Best visiting a court house

If international rugby these days is an intensely detail-oriented game, psychology is obviously a part of that. And it's stupid to be giving yourself such hassle of distractions right before a game. Unless Joe pre-approved it, I'd imagine he's fuming.

I think 'zero effects' is incorrect, I don't think it's going to play a big part, but if it's even a very minor distraction, it was a bad idea.

I'm actually starting to get annoyed it's not Saturday yet.

Stheno

swiwi_ wrote: »

OK, I found a moment at work to whip up a preview. Please don't tell my boss. Thanks.

There are no tables :eek:

Yeah_Right

Trojan wrote: »

France in RWC 2011.

That is all.

I agree. They lost three matches in that tournament and I think they'll lose three in this tournament too.

swiwi_

Stheno wrote: »

There are no tables :eek:

I'm dyslexic. Probably ending up posting pictures of a chair.

Yeah_Right

Stheno wrote: »

There are no tables :eek:

The only tables us kiwis use are BBQ tables.

Kevski

Does anyone know any good places to watch the match in Amsterdam?

.ak

Kevski wrote: »

Does anyone know any good places to watch the match in Amsterdam?

O’Reilly’s, watched the Chicago match there. Great game.

Yeah_Right

Yeah_Right wrote: »

The only tables us kiwis use are BBQ tables.

I think you use a few others...

Bazzo

kuang1 wrote: »

Well I was asking while applying the assumption that there'd be no bizarre stuff like an early red card.
(Who'd be most likely to get a red actually...Aki?
Healy? Sexton?)

Aki has only gotten something like one yellow card in the last 4 years, and his only citing/suspension was for whatever he said to the ref that time(I can't remember), Sexton probably something similar or even less. It's definitely Healy by a country mile.

Sangre

Bazzo wrote: »

Aki has only gotten something like one yellow card in the last 4 years, and his only citing/suspension was for whatever he said to the ref that time(I can't remember), Sexton probably something similar or even less. It's definitely Healy by a country mile.

Healy or Earls.