Cold Spell - Snow & Ice Possible Thursday 8th / Friday 9th

ZX7R

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

havent watched closely today but from charts just posted what stands out to me is that the front is arriving about 4 hours earlier than progged last night. I dont think that is in anyones interests and completely gooses any chance for my area anyway. I thought this would be more of an overnight affair.

From my untrained eyes, I don't see it arriving 4 hours earlier than what the models were predicted yesterday, 2 hours earlier max on some of the models as you were on others, if anything it looks to be crossing the country slightly slower.
I stand to be corrected on this.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I agree, and HIRLAM, strangely enough, shows similar, if not more enhanced dew point readings for around the same time. Forecast for my town for Tuesday morn from YR.

I think that's grossly overstating how low dewpoints will get. Obviously if the temperature falls to say -6 then the dewpoint can be no higher than this, but with a band of precipitation just having passed through and an Atlantic airmass to follow, I'll eat my hat if you get a dewpoint below -2 at any time tomorrow night or Tuesday. It has temperature hovering just above 0.

dacogawa

Could see a few flakes in Dublin in an hour or so, the radar showing a little bit pushing in from the Irish sea http://m.met.ie/weather-rainfall-radar.aspx

BLIZZARD7

dacogawa wrote: »

Could see a few flakes in Dublin in an hour or so, the radar showing a little bit pushing in from the Irish sea http://m.met.ie/weather-rainfall-radar.aspx

Had a few bits of hail/graupel there in D14 a few minutes ago.

Kermit.de.frog

Hirlam 18z



That would almost certainly be disruptive if things transpired like that.

Temperatures are dropping below freezing now in the eastern half of the country but some occasional showers are coming on shore - this could lead to dangerous driving conditions later in the night.

Perhaps some snow toward morning on some east coasts as well.


Can I ask a moderator to change back the thread title as this thread was never meant for a singular "event" - Perhaps we could change the title back but keep the warning? It would be a lot neater.

Rebelbrowser

ZX7R wrote: »

From my untrained eyes, I don't see it arriving 4 hours earlier than what the models were predicted yesterday, 2 hours earlier max on some of the models as you were on others, if anything it looks to be crossing the country slightly slower.
I stand to be corrected on this.

I havent got any saved charts to prove this but my sense yesterday was that the front would arrive in my area (Cork suburbs) around midnight. On some of Meteorites charts posted most recently, the front has fully passed through my area by then.

Villain

-2.9c here tonight already in my frost hollow

ninebeanrows

Some icy drizzle here now.

ninebeanrows

4.1C at Howth , -1C @ Dublin Airport

mickger844posts

At least with the front coming in earlier we will know our faith before bedtime. Nothing worse than going to bed with all the hope in the world and opening the curtains the next morning to find it dry or worst of all wet.

George Sunsnow

0.7c in Arklow

Snowbiee21

Weathercheck wrote: »

4.1C at Howth , -1C @ Dublin Airport

Now that’s a contrast !

JCX BXC

3c here in West Clare, got down to 2.5c around 10 minutes ago. Temperature fluctuating a strangely large amount, with no notable wind increases.

ninebeanrows

Those small rain showers near the east could prove treacherous tonight if they pick up much intensity with road temperatures falling below zero- black ice potential

pad199207

Car temp of 5c in Dublin City Centre.

Rock Lesnar

Clear sky and frost on the roof of the car here, meath

BLIZZARD7

Agh 1.8c and rain from latest shower.

Snowbiee21

Rain shower . D17

Salmon Leap

Heavy frost on car now - Leixlip

lucernarian

Going by the last snow Dublin had, the urban heat island effect might be quite limited unless there's at least ~5km or so of suburbia upwind of various places in Dublin. It's a different kettle of fish with an easterly wind though.

There is a certain range of temperatures where snow will stick to grass or cars but not the ground, that could be very prevalent in the more central parts in Dublin. Like on 30th November 2010 when snow wasn't properly sticking on roads in the city centre for maybe 3 hours that day, but stuck elsewhere.

JCX BXC

Straight snow forecast for DUB from 10pm tomorrow according to the airport TAF. No rain or sleet, just snow.

Just rain for Cork, Shannon and even Knock.

Gonzo

a few light showers on meath coastline, not sure they will make it as far as Dunshaughlin, they look very light.

Eastern UK now has a peppering of snow showers.

Kermit.de.frog

Gonzo wrote: »

a few light showers on meath coastline, not sure they will make it as far as Dunshaughlin, they look very light.

Eastern UK now has a peppering of snow showers.

The -8 c 850 hpa isotherm will be nearing the east coast in the next few hours so undoubtedly the showers will be picking up a more wintry flavor and coastal temperatures will slip further.

I think snow showers are likely early tomorrow morning but very hit and miss...

Meteorite58

Sligo / Leitrim / Donegal could get a good bit of snow early Tues morning in the colder post frontal air, perhaps more then the front produces elsewhere if under a shower train ( maybe Kerry too ! , would love the young fella to witness the first snow that he can remember ).

lucernarian

JCX BXC wrote: »

Straight snow forecast for DUB from 10pm tomorrow according to the airport TAF. No rain or sleet, just snow.

Just rain for Cork, Shannon and even Knock.

-SN for DUB, but still! Hard to get a handle on expected precipitation.

Oscar Bravo

2317 met update

Monday morning will be dry, cold and frosty with icy patches. Frost and any mist or fog will gradually clear. In the afternoon, rain will develop in the west. It will spread eastwards through the evening and early night, turning to sleet and snow over much of the midlands and the eastern half of the country

Meteorite58

Windy in the airmass after the front goes through on Monday giving one heck of a windchill.

Kermit.de.frog

GFS progging heavy snow showers on Tuesday night for Ulster, Leinster and North Connaught.



For tomorrow night GFS is messy though and easily the least optimistic model with a messy mix of rain and snow generally.

Still, best to stick with the short range high resolution models.

Donegal Storm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Windy in the airmass after the front goes through on Monday giving one heck of a windchill.

Joanna mentioned chances of drifting snow because of the wind on the 9.30pm forecast, not that drifts will amount to much from a few cm but might make things a bit more interesting

DOCARCH

ME warning updated:

Snow-ice Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, East Cork, Tipperary and Waterford.

This evening and tonight, falls of snow will give accumulations of 0 to 3 cm leading to hazardous conditions on roads and footpaths.

Issued:Monday 05 February 2018 05:00
Valid:Monday 05 February 2018 18:00 to Tuesday 06 February 2018 04:00

highdef

DOCARCH wrote: »

ME warning updated:



This evening and tonight, falls of snow will give accumulations of 0 to 3 cm leading to hazardous conditions on roads and footpaths.

I find it hilarious about how our state forecaster can regard 0cm (ie: nothing) to be considered an accumulation of snow.

M.T. Cranium

This thread needs a title change if this is going to be the place for discussing the possible snowfall event tonight. I would suggest adding "and potential 2 to 5 cm snowfalls Monday night" or something along those lines, then it could be removed by Tuesday morning to allow the thread to maintain its cold weather focus.

Wine Goddess

Gerry Murphy on 0755am weather said sleet and snow tonight, especially over the East coast. He also mentioned the West and North getting snow showers behind the first front.

DOCARCH

highdef wrote: »

I find it hilarious about how our state forecaster can regard 0cm (ie: nothing) to be considered an accumulation of snow.

0cm accumulations could be correct for some looking at latest sat images! :pac:

https://en.sat24.com/en/eu/infraPolair

Looks like a very weak affair (the front)....will it even make it to the east coast?

Time will tell.

Nettle Soup

Grand morning in Galway. No frost. 4C and calm at the moment.

Rebelbrowser

Hirlam looks good this morning (and from an imby perspective has this as snow from pretty far west onwards and all the way to the south coast....)

..

ninebeanrows

HIRLAM definitely the best this AM as slows front in eastern areas, giving 5-6hrs of snow!

ninebeanrows

11pm



4am

munsterlegend

Weathercheck wrote: »

HIRLAM definitely the best this AM as slows front in eastern areas, giving 5-6hrs of snow!

Do Met Eireann use this model as well as harmonie?

ninebeanrows

munsterlegend wrote: »

Do Met Eireann use this model as well as harmonie?

Yes- HIRLAM is showing 4 to 5mm of liquid from the front tonight in the east.

ninebeanrows

EC 3-4mm and Harmonie the lowest with just 1-3mm.

George Sunsnow

Currently cloudy and cold in Arklow with a light NE Breeze
Frost on the ground still

https://twitter.com/arklowweather/status/960441624558960640

beefburrito

I would be a novice with all the weather terminology, I've learned a lot from reading post's here.
And I'm grateful to have access to such knowelege.

Anyhow I can't see how Clare won't get a pasting like the rest of the country.

Will it fly over us and then settle eastwards,or will it fall here too, I know it is what it is but I'd love some shnow
Im in north Clare in the evening and east Clare during the day.....

gerrybhoy

In D17 and there was a few flakes,well about 10 that fell as i was walking into the industrial estate

Rebelbrowser

beefburrito wrote: »

I would be a novice with all the weather terminology, I've learned a lot from reading post's here.
And I'm grateful to have access to such knowelege.

Anyhow I can't see how Clare won't get a pasting like the rest of the country.

Will it fly over us and then settle eastwards,or will it fall here too, I know it is what it is but I'd love some shnow
Im in north Clare in the evening and east Clare during the day.....

It will fall as rain in the west but as it comes up against colder air embedded in the east it will turn to snow East Clare has a small chance of white gold.....

George Sunsnow

beefburrito wrote: »

I would be a novice with all the weather terminology, I've learned a lot from reading post's here.
And I'm grateful to have access to such knowelege.

Anyhow I can't see how Clare won't get a pasting like the rest of the country.

Will it fly over us and then settle eastwards,or will it fall here too, I know it is what it is but I'd love some shnow
Im in north Clare in the evening and east Clare during the day.....

The front arrives as rain,it needs to pass over enough cold air to turn to snow which it won’t have in Clare

munsterlegend

beefburrito wrote: »

I would be a novice with all the weather terminology, I've learned a lot from reading post's here.
And I'm grateful to have access to such knowelege.

Anyhow I can't see how Clare won't get a pasting like the rest of the country.

Will it fly over us and then settle eastwards,or will it fall here too, I know it is what it is but I'd love some shnow
Im in north Clare in the evening and east Clare during the day.....

The problem for Clare and probably my part of north Cork is that the front bring the rain will have warmer uppers and the colder air in the east will not have spread far enough west.

That's why the eastern half of the country is expected to get snow.

ninebeanrows

Continental air finally feeding into Howth as dewpoints go negative.,,,,,, 3.3/-0.7

Kermit.de.frog

ICON 6z model run has pushed the transition to snow back westward somewhat

Gaoth Laidir

I don't like that deck of stratocumulus over the country. It's pretty dank here in the east at least and dewpoints are still on the high side. We need the cloud to shift later if it's to cool enough at lowest levels after dark. If it doesn't then I'd wonder about exactly how much snow we'll get.