Cold Spell - Snow & Ice Possible Thursday 8th / Friday 9th

pad199207

Decent hail shower here in Wexford now

Kermit.de.frog

Hirlam 6z, 27 hrs, 850 hpa temps

catrat12

whats the prediction for dublin mountains?

Thanx lads

ninebeanrows

Yea we could get some snizzle showers overnight near east coasts and tomorrow...

Meanwhile the latest HIRLAM showing snow more extensive across country tomorrow night....

mickger844posts

The Met Eireann forecast from this morning can just be binned with regards Monday night into Tuesday. All the models are showing a snow event for at least the Eastern half of the country. Met Eireann will issue warnings later today I feel. In Waterford City I see maybe 5cm it not more.

www.waterfordweather.com

ninebeanrows

Perks up nice before it clears...

2-3cm widely, locally upto 5cm and probably a little higher over Wicklow mtns

ninebeanrows

catrat12 wrote: »

whats the prediction for dublin mountains?

Thanx lads

4-7cm of lying snow by Tuesday morning.

typhoony

Now we've got rid of the westerly much we get a cold bright week to look forward to with some night time snow and a few showers in the West during day time. Great walking weather

typhoony

Instinct and past experience tells me that the front may fizzle a bit as it reaches dublin, the models are not showing it weakening, hope I'm wrong.

George Sunsnow

Heading for 3mm now from this mornings Irish Sea showers near Arklow in 1030 mb pressure
That’s 3 times more than the front the other night and the equivalent of maybe an inch and a half of snow if it had been cold enough

Kermit.de.frog

Batman sign just northwest of Ireland.

JCX BXC

ME update now:

Rain will extend eastwards to all parts on Monday night, turning to sleet and snow, with snow depositions likely over the midlands, north and east. Minimum temperatures of minus 2 to plus 2 degrees Celsius, but less cold in the west before midnight. Light to moderate south to southwest breezes veering northwest and freshening as the rain and snow clears.

Kermit.de.frog

Snow "deposits", not "depositions". Are they giving a deposition on snow?

jprboy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Snow "deposits", not "depositions". Are they giving a deposition on snow?

Only on that with a southwesterly component, all the while :pac:

munsterlegend

mickger844posts wrote: »

The Met Eireann forecast from this morning can just be binned with regards Monday night into Tuesday. All the models are showing a snow event for at least the Eastern half of the country. Met Eireann will issue warnings later today I feel. In Waterford City I see maybe 5cm it not more.

www.waterfordweather.com

I wouldn't be tempting fate what with past history of Atlantic fronts. Waterford will be cold enough but what amounts of precipitation will reach there? Cork as ever too far west unless in heavier precipitation it turns to snow.

tiegan

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Snow "deposits", not "depositions". Are they giving a deposition on snow?

There will be more than "depositions" if these "deposits" do not materialise. Have been waiting all winter for a thread like this. I work nights outside, soooo looking forward to Monday night in South Tipp

Oneiric 3

850 temp evolution over the last 36hrs:

Pa ElGrande

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Snow "deposits", not "depositions". Are they giving a deposition on snow?

Athlone Gardaí investigating the sudden disappearance of Frosty the snowman have called in experts from Met Eireann. Locals suspect his disappearance is connected to the influx of dirty slush along the roads around the Midlands.

Larbre34

I feel the Farming Forecast will be a s**t or get off the pot moment for Met É, whatever about us snow bunnies, the farmers do actually need fair warning.

downwiththatsor

Euro4 not very inspiring

mickger844posts

munsterlegend wrote: »

I wouldn't be tempting fate what with past history of Atlantic fronts. Waterford will be cold enough but what amounts of precipitation will reach there? Cork as ever too far west unless in heavier precipitation it turns to snow.

The trend of late is for these fronts to pep up rather than die away. Also the fact it’s hitting colder air could intensify precipitation. I’m confident of a covering here Tuesday morning.

Oneiric 3

mickger844posts wrote: »

Also the fact it’s hitting colder air could intensify precipitation. I’m confident of a covering here Tuesday morning.

Cold air is more likely to have a stabilizing affect on an approaching front. Fronts are more likely to become more active when approaching warmer, moister air ahead of it.

arctictree

George Sunsnow wrote: »

If I was a farmer in roundwood somewhere lambing sheep and found myself in a white out overnight Monday I’d be very mad if I was relying on the 755am Sunday forecast if it was all I had time to listen to
They could of course be right

We are supposed to be putting up a temporary lambing shelter tomorrow. You can be sure we will be postponing that.

pad199207

Warning up now. Hardly inspiring

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Tipperary and Waterford
Falls of snow from Monday evening, with accumulations totalling up to 3cm possible in some areas, leading to treacherous road conditions by Tuesday morning.

Issued:Sunday 04 February 2018 12:00
Valid:Monday 05 February 2018 18:00 to Tuesday 06 February 2018 06:00

stephenjmcd

I'm still new to the technical side of weather and learning as i go, but would i be right in saying that the east coast could be at a standstill on Tuesday morning ? Dublin in particular if it gets hit ?
Thanks in advance

sdanseo

Harmonie clearly showing something we can't see. About time it was made publically accessible.

George Sunsnow

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Cold air is more likely to have a stabilizing affect on an approaching front. Fronts are more likely to become more active when approaching warmer, moister air ahead of it.

Pardon the pun,but there are literally oceans of examples too of the opposite not least the example Syran posted last night so the jury is firmly out on that one
We also have Mt’s view that there should be more than enough moisture in the front to give 2 to 5cms widely
I’d imagine the angle of the approach of the front coming into Waterford city (hills to the west and northwest will further aid the process there if you get me?

George Sunsnow

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I'm still new to the technical side of weather and learning as i go, but would i be right in saying that the east coast could be at a standstill on Tuesday morning ? Dublin in particular if it gets hit ?
Thanks in advance

Yes roads into Dublin *if* they get hit
2 to 5cms is more than enough in Ireland to cause road problems
If the front stalls,even more problems
But let’s see
This snow game is a dark art

pjohnson

pad199207 wrote: »

Warning up now. Hardly inspiring

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Tipperary and Waterford
Falls of snow from Monday evening, with accumulations totalling up to 3cm possible in some areas, leading to treacherous road conditions by Tuesday morning.

Issued:Sunday 04 February 2018 12:00
Valid:Monday 05 February 2018 18:00 to Tuesday 06 February 2018 06:00

Always pleasantly suprised when Galway avoids being part of the warning!

stephenjmcd

George Sunsnow wrote: »

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I'm still new to the technical side of weather and learning as i go, but would i be right in saying that the east coast could be at a standstill on Tuesday morning ? Dublin in particular if it gets hit ?
Thanks in advance

Yes roads into Dublin *if* they get hit
2 to 5cms is more than enough in Ireland to cause road problems
If the front stalls,even more problems
But let’s see
This snow game is a dark art

Thanks, quickly learning that it's a real game of chance and a real in the moment event

gozunda

pad199207 wrote: »

Warning up now. Hardly inspiring

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Leitrim, Roscommon, Sligo, Tipperary and Waterford
Falls of snow from Monday evening, with accumulations totalling up to 3cm possible in some areas, leading to treacherous road conditions by Tuesday morning.

Issued:Sunday 04 February 2018 12:00
Valid:Monday 05 February 2018 18:00 to Tuesday 06 February 2018 06:00

Inspiring? That forecast us enough to fxk my routine and plans from Tuesday morning onwards. If the forecast gets worse then it's not going to pretty with regard to work and travel around here ...

Will someone maybe update the thread title to show update thanks.

JanuarySnowstor

Ridiculous that they choose to name and leave out counties. Sure Cork particularly North Cork is at the same risk as places like Waterford....

Starting to lose their credibility for me

JCX BXC

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Ridiculous that they choose to name and leave out counties. Sure Cork particularly North Cork is at the same risk as places like Waterford....

Starting to lose their credibility for me

Don't be mad because they don't forecast snow in your backyard! Would you rather have it forecasted and none come?

I assume they have a discussion about where warrants a warning and where doesn't. They can be upgraded in future.

squarecircles

Very Benign farming forecast.

Failed to even mention their snow/ice warning.

She said a warning might issued. Face palm*

George Sunsnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

Don't be mad because they don't forecast snow in your backyard! Would you rather have it forecasted and none come?

I assume they have a discussion about where warrants a warning and where doesn't. They can be upgraded in future.

Joanna just now wasn’t aware a warning was issued
Also if I was a hill farmer in Wicklow relying on what I just watched ,I wouldn’t expect my sheep or cattle out to need extra hay..
No mention of totals at all

Snowbiee21

Looks like Friday could deliver some snow . Obviously for now take it with a pinch of salt and focus on tomorrow

grenouille1966

I don't expect much anywhere on Monday night...3cm is nothing...a dusting at best...we had that in Dublin 15 a couple of weeks ago.

As per usual the North midlands around Cavan and Monaghan will get the worst of it together with Dublin/Wicklow mountains and other high altitude areas.

PukkaStukka

squarecircles wrote: »

Very Benign farming forecast.

Failed to even mention their snow/ice warning.

She said a warning might issued. Face palm*

Might be because that forecast is prerecorded earlier?

JCX BXC

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Might be because that forecast is prerecorded earlier?

Have seen the same happen with Ophelia, red warning issued but no mention of it on the weather Bulletin a half hour later.

MJohnston

The nice high res WRF model is starting to come in range of the main event, the 4pm update should show more of it, but I wanted to post this anyway, looks like from now until it does hit, there's plenty of potential for little bits of ninja snow here and there:

Iancar29

Heres my 2 cents on tomorrows front.

Looks like a good portion of the country will see some settling snow but as its a weak front it won't cause too much disruption, certainly has been heavier more localised falls in recent weeks.


Theta-E values look good currently for full snow down to low levels however 1c up and it'll be wet snow/mess for many.


So why are we looking at a fairly weak amount? Well If we look at the wider picture we can see that the pressure gradient is fairly weak which leads to less forcing.


Associated lapse rates then due to the small temperature gradient at t500 are also quite low.



So overall, alot will see some snow tomorrow night with a nice dusting for many. Nothing to cause alarm IMO. Best for both snow bunnies and people who are worrying about work issues.

Larbre34

PukkaStukka wrote: »

Might be because that forecast is prerecorded earlier?

Fine, pre-record if they must but not so far ahead of time that they are contradicting their own information. Daft.

highdef

grenouille1966 wrote: »

I don't expect much anywhere on Monday night...3cm is nothing...a dusting at best...we had that in Dublin 15 a couple of weeks ago.

I don't think anywhere in Dublin got 3cm. Was that measured on hard level ground (concrete, tarmac, that kind of thing), not grass?

A dusting is when surfaces are just about covered. Think of the dusting of icing sugar on a Victoria sponge cake.... There's no depth to it, it's just a bare covering. 3cm is a decent of snow on solid ground, over an inch in old money. This would be easily enough to cause significant travel disruption. Was this the case?

gozunda

Iancar29 wrote: »

Heres my 2 cents on tomorrows front.

Looks like a good portion of the country will see some settling snow but as its a weak front it won't cause too much disruption, certainly has been heavier more localised falls in recent weeks.


Theta-E values look good currently for full snow down to low levels however 1c up and it'll be wet snow/mess for many.


So why are we looking at a fairly weak amount? Well If we look at the wider picture we can see that the pressure gradient is fairly weak which leads to less forcing.


Associated lapse rates then due to the small temperature gradient at t500 are also quite low.



So overall, alot will see some snow tomorrow night with a nice dusting for many. Nothing to cause alarm IMO. Best for both snow bunnies and people who are worrying about work issues.

Your image file links appear to be broken ...

highdef

Iancar29 wrote: »

Heres my 2 cents on tomorrows front.

Looks like a good portion of the country will see some settling snow but as its a weak front it won't cause too much disruption, certainly has been heavier more localised falls in recent weeks.


Theta-E values look good currently for full snow down to low levels however 1c up and it'll be wet snow/mess for many.


So why are we looking at a fairly weak amount? Well If we look at the wider picture we can see that the pressure gradient is fairly weak which leads to less forcing.


Associated lapse rates then due to the small temperature gradient at t500 are also quite low.



So overall, alot will see some snow tomorrow night with a nice dusting for many. Nothing to cause alarm IMO. Best for both snow bunnies and people who are worrying about work issues.

Do you reckon elevation will be a benefactor for this event? If so, for the Eastern half of the country where snow is most likely, what sort of elevation would you say it would be best to be above to give a more certain chance of (lying) snow?

Iancar29

highdef wrote: »

Do you reckon elevation will be a benefactor for this event? If so, for the Eastern half of the country where snow is most likely, what sort of elevation would you say it would be best to be above to give a more certain chance of (lying) snow?

150m and you should be definitely seeing settling snow from the get-go. Elsewhere might have a slight delay as like a few weeks ago

highdef

Iancar29 wrote: »

150m and you should be definitely seeing settling snow from the get-go. Elsewhere might have a slight delay as like a few weeks ago

I should be able to verify on Tuesday morning. Hill beside me is just under 150m and a road goes over the highest point. I'm just below 90m so could be a slushy mess although the local roads are quiet so less disturbance from traffic. We'll be an interesting start to day, in any case. Location is North Kildare, near the Meath border, 40km West of Dublin city centre

patneve2

Reckon I could get an inch or a little more out of this. Wind direction is favourable so coastal areas will be less penalised compared to the usual setup of SE or E winds that so often screw it up for me. Areas more inland and at a certain height really should get 2 inches or more. IMO crucial is the intensity of ppn when the wind switches to the NW bringing in the PM mass; hopefully it will be moderate at times.

The Thursday/Friday event is also starting to look good on the GFS with appreciable amounts of precip over the whole country. Will have to keep a closer eye on that one.

Meteorite58

Looks more and more like a very weak front. Will get snow but small amounts more then likely IMO. In my own locality around Tralee maybe a few snow showers Tues Morning 05.00-09.00 perhaps .

Meteorite58

Euro Swiss High Res model






I would think this should say cm not mm