Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

Gaoth Laidir

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Before I was born, that.

How long did it take the snow to melt, specifically the piled snow by roadsides?

I seem to remember snow piles remaining for months the shade in my area (Garristown) but I don't know exactly. The drifts were worst in the roads, with little lying snow in the fields. That's why the chart of snow depths posted earlier wasn't so spectacular (well, 25 cm is spectacular for one day's snowfall), because lying snow must be measured on a level snow layer, away from drifts.

Here are the data for Dublin Airport and Casement around that time. Casement was a lot more severe, with minima falling to -12.1 on the 12th (obviously still under snow cover. The grass min temperatures (gmin) are also shown and only go positive on the 18th, so the "lying snow" was probably gone by then (but not the drifts).
Note the high easterly windspeeds, reaching sustained gale force at both stations.

Oneiric 3

Gonzo wrote: »

I've never seen that video before and it was filmed within 1km of where I live. The very end of the video shows very high snow depths on the laneway into the farm.


.

Great video, but I find it curious that there seems to be little apparent depth in the fields beside the roadway, or on top of fence/telegraph posts and even roofs and trees. Of course the wind may have something to do with this, I recall in both December 2010 & December 2000 (the latter being ultimately superior) that everything was covered, like a scene out of a frozen winter fairy-tale.

MJohnston

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Is any model with precipitation charts we can view, besides the gfs, actually showing snow next week? The likes of gem, icon, aperge arent....

ECM:

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Great video, but I find it curious that there seems to be little apparent depth in the fields beside the roadway, or on top of fence/telegraph posts and even roofs and trees. Of course the wind may have something to do with this, I recall in both December 2010 & December 2000 (the latter being ultimately superior) that everything was covered, like a scene out of a frozen winter fairy-tale.

It was proper dry snow, so blew very easily in the strong winds. It all gathered along the roads.

highdef

I noticed the lack of snow on a lot of the rooves and I made an assumption that it was due to little no insulation as most of the houses look like they were built in the 60's/70's when heat was known to to go straight through the roof

Gonzo

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Great video, but I find it curious that there seems to be little apparent depth in the fields beside the roadway, or on top of fence/telegraph posts and even roofs and trees. Of course the wind may have something to do with this, I recall in both December 2010 & December 2000 (the latter being ultimately superior) that everything was covered, like a scene out of a frozen winter fairy-tale.

it was the wind, like I said in my previous post there was places where there was several meters of snow while nearby there also areas where blades of grass could be seen as the snow was whipped up by the wind. National and secondary routes looked less snowy as much of the snow in those areas were cleared by JCB's. The video you watched also had snow cleared in all roads. Smaller roads/lanes like where I lived were not cleared for days and looked much worse.

Oneiric 3

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It was proper dry snow, so blew very easily in the strong winds. It all gathered along the roads.

2000 was proper 'dry snow' but it gathered in immense proportions on pretty much everything, which was most likely down to the lack of substantial wind and frozen temps.

As thrilling and as aesthetic as the snow was during that period, it was the thunder that came with many of the showers that still gives me the Goosebumps to this day. Magical.

kod87

wow, so many of you guys have witnessed incredible snow falls in Ireland, really amazing reading about it, it's hard for me to even imagine that level of snowfall in Ireland. In my 30 years I have only experienced 2 inches of wet snow lying on the ground at any one time, i can't even image snow drifts ''meters'' deep.

pistolpetes11

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I know where this is going, I've seen enough! :mad:

Your diving straight into the desert before we’ve even had the starters ?

Elmer Blooker

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Your diving straight into the desert before we’ve even had the starters ?

Nah. Northern blocking remains as elusive as ever and I'm sick and tired of topplers.

fraxinus1

Major downgrade in forecast language by Met Eireann tonight. I’d say the main feature of next weeks weather will be the mid week storm. As for snow; maybe some falls on high ground in the N and NW. Snow wise it’s a flop. Very disappointing.

Kermit.de.frog

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Major downgrade in forecast language by Met Eireann tonight. I’d say the main feature of next weeks weather will be the mid week storm. As for snow; maybe some falls on high ground in the N and NW. Snow wise it’s a flop. Very disappointing.

The forecast has not changed from my last post.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105827686&postcount=242

Accumulating snow in the west and northwest, north midlands on Monday night, more widespread through Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Wednesday evening could bring a temporary milder blip with some rain, sleet and snow. Have to watch that as it could be more favorable for snow in the northern half of the country yet. Potential for strong winds with this as well.

This clearing through later Wednesday night and back in business on Thursday with more snowfall and low temperatures.

patneve2

Perhaps we'll have to open a storm thread for the Wednesday/Thursday low pressure. Looks nasty on some models

pauldry

patneve2 wrote: »

Perhaps we'll have to open a storm thread for the Wednesday/Thursday low pressure. Looks nasty on some models

Haha Kermit still stays optimistic

Well I live in Sligo so looking forward to a wild week though we should have opened a theead about today

Yellow Warning : Mild Non Weather day in NW on January 13th. It was such a relief to have no wind rain or lightning or frost for ONE day. In 2017 the opposite was true.

BTW on my phone met errorin have forgotten to forecast Mondays weather as of 250am Sunday

kod87

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Major downgrade in forecast language by Met Eireann tonight. I’d say the main feature of next weeks weather will be the mid week storm. As for snow; maybe some falls on high ground in the N and NW. Snow wise it’s a flop. Very disappointing.

Isn't that all we were expecting, high ground with a chance of localised falls inland at low levels at night. That seems to still be what's expected.

sdanseo

MÉ do seem to have significantly adjusted their forecast from earlier. It had been very detailed, giving indications of rain, sleet and snow in various places during the week.

Now it says the below. Almost seems like the duty forecaster went a little overboard initially with the snow descriptions, confidence not quite high enough and has changed to b eing deliberately vague until the Monday shift and presumably someone more senior tells them what to say

Tuesday: A cold, windy day with widespread heavy showers merging to longer spells of rain across the western half of the country; some of the showers will be wintry. Highs of 2 to 5 degrees.

Wednesday: Cold and windy for much of the day with further showers. Temperatures rising during the evening as heavy rain and strong winds develop overnight with the passage of a winter storm across Ireland.

Thursday: Cold, windy and showery again. Widespread frost Thursday night.

Friday: Cold and showery, less windy.

M.T. Cranium

This late Wednesday event is looking more likely with every new model run, now the GEM has locked into it as well. The jet stream is reaching speeds that we associate with severe storm development (120 knots at 500 mb and 200+ at 250 mb). And the tightest portion of the jet stream appears to be aimed at Donegal and Northern Ireland in general by Wednesday.

So if this trend continues I think this cold spell is going to divide into two parts, the Tuesday part looks quite strong with thicknesses below 516 dm in the westerly flow, then a second part by Thursday that will at least have the feature of residual strong winds.

And we are going to need to separate out this storm from the cold themed thread because it will be basically a windstorm event with temperatures briefly returning to near average values of 8-10 C. I don't think it will produce super-heavy rainfalls at the speed with which it's moving, 10-15 mm would be the opening guess for that. But I do believe that if it happens at all, it will be stronger than models are showing it now, perhaps we will be seeing depictions down into the high 950s before Monday. Could even be the event of the winter.

KingdomRushed

The GFS snow graphics are sexing this whole thing up as per usual. I have lost count of the days when GFS had snow showing for it to be rain in reality. I wanted to get excited about this but every time I look closely at it, the source, the sea track, the upper air temps, I just say ‘nah’. Some night time wet snow perhaps.

Most models also showing Ireland missing a bullet with the runner low/storm. Most intensification while crossing out of UK into Europe. Could be v damaging there.

Also, the signal that was developing for blocking and cold after the northwesterly has greatly eroded in last days with a very regular pattern of low pressure over Greenland and more westerlies for us now in the ascendant

M.T. Cranium

As to the cold potential with these two outbreaks, let's say moderate, I don't want to overplay it and I don't want to underplay it, -6 to -7 uppers on ECM as well, in a strong westerly flow, it will snow in higher parts of the northwest and a mixture of p-types is likely at lower elevations.

So now the ECM and Arpege are taking the late Wednesday low much further north while GFS and (without developing a centre) GEM are tracking it closer to Ulster.

Since ECM has a stronger low the gradient winds are not that different despite the variation in tracks.

I don't think this is a done deal by any stretch, this could go away, it could intensify, it could dive south. There are some patterns that you see and trust, this one not so much, especially as I've had recent experience on this side of the Atlantic with the models just not working very well at 2-3 days let alone five.

Gaoth Laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This late Wednesday event is looking more likely with every new model run, now the GEM has locked into it as well. The jet stream is reaching speeds that we associate with severe storm development (120 knots at 500 mb and 200+ at 250 mb). And the tightest portion of the jet stream appears to be aimed at Donegal and Northern Ireland in general by Wednesday.

The 300 hPa jet looks above 220 kt tomorrow. I've never seen the white shading like below before. Must be near record speeds for the north Atlantic? I reckon the midweek low deeper and further north is a likely outcome now based on this.

George Sunsnow

So now we have Scenario (again) of Synoptics shown by nwp’s less than a week ago from a mix of the west and north just like phantoms from the east and north a forthright or so ago disappearing into what’s more like our climactic norm

I do hope the older forecasters left in met offices are passing on their experience to the younger Turks in there on how sometimes you need to use hunch and manually blend in past events before preparing forecasts

derekon

George Sunsnow wrote: »

So now we have Scenario (again) of Synoptics shown by nwp’s less than a week ago from a mix of the west and north just like phantoms from the east and north a forthright or so ago disappearing into what’s more like our climactic norm

I do hope the older forecasters left in met offices are passing on their experience to the younger Turks in there on how sometimes you need to use hunch and manually blend in past events before preparing forecasts

Yes fully agree. A lot of hype built up around this "event". It appears it's now a case of "move on, nothing to see here". The frustrations of snow chasing in Ireland continue and we really have to come to the conclusion that global warming might soon make snow a thing of the past for this country.........

D

Billcarson

The second half of Jan curse

George Sunsnow

derekon wrote: »

Yes fully agree. A lot of hype built up around this "event". It appears it's now a case of "move on, nothing to see here". The frustrations of snow chasing in Ireland continue and we really have to come to the conclusion that global warming might soon make snow a thing of the past for this country.........

D

True,I still think there’ll be snow in spots (maybe a lot in some) from this event
I was more making the general point that forecasting is about 80% intuition experience
There’s definite evidence that the younger Turks in the UK met office like the brilliant Aidan Mcgivern are definitely following the Alex Deakin school and my personal favorite further back the late great Jack Scott
It’s as it should be

fraxinus1

Another mundane week ahead, even the mid week storm looks like missing us. Well I’m for Dublin visiting family and friends so that will help pass the week and take my mind off what many would consider a weird obsession for snow and severe weather.

I am now putting all thoughts of winter out of my mind and focusing on Spring. I have noticed the slight stretch in the evenings and look forward to that evening when I look out and there’s still the last bit of light in the sky and I realise it’s 6pm.

That’s me done on here for this winter (unless something solid snow wise does materialise in the next 6 weeks). I have enjoyed it immensely and good luck to all who contribute regularly on here.

giveitholly

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Another mundane week ahead, even the mid week storm looks like missing us. Well I’m for Dublin visiting family and friends so that will help pass the week and take my mind off what many would consider a weird obsession for snow and severe weather.

I am now putting all thoughts of winter out of my mind and focusing on Spring. I have noticed the slight stretch in the evenings and look forward to that evening when I look out and there’s still the last bit of light in the sky and I realise it’s 6pm.

That’s me done on here for this winter (unless something solid snow wise does materialise in the next 6 weeks). I have enjoyed it immensely and good luck to all who contribute regularly on here.

How many times this winter have you said you are done with this winter and then reappear here a few days later!!!

Meteorite58

Mod Note: fraxinus1 has received a warning for trolling.

This is a busy thread and the Mod team will be taking a no nonsense approach to those that attempt to derail the thread.

Clonmel1000

So in 3 days we are gone from countrywide snow showers to normal January weather? There is a bit of sensationalism creeping in to here this winter I’ve noticed.

Kermit.de.frog

Every day it feels like you have to sooth flustered peeps in here.

Nothing has changed except there is a higher probability of things breaking down next weekend in terms of snow potential.

Monday night, Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning you need to be wary of the risk of some disruption from snowfall.

This is NOT only a high level risk. It is also a country wide risk though the north, northwest and north midlands will take the brunt.

Then there is also the storm Wednesday night that needs tracking but this has been known for a couple of days now.

Have your gas ready and your mittens handy.:D

munsterlegend

In the latest met eireann update Tuesday looks fairly wintry with plenty showers. Probably the main day of action nationwide.