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Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

  • 11-01-2018 8:52am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    This is within 120 hours so discussion should take place here.

    Much colder weather directly from Greenland no less making a rapid entrance Monday - starting mild and wet but temperatures quickly collapsing from the northwest through the day. Showers increasingly of snow in the northwest by evening (accumulations likely here at this stage) extending nationwide with accumulations likely on Monday night and Tuesday. Coming over still relatively warm seas some beefy precipitation is highly likely with thunderstorms possible especially in western and southwestern counties.

    Frost and ice inland away from western coastal counties with temperatures at or just below freezing. Snow will readily settle in these conditions.

    During daylight temperatures may struggle form 1 to 4c at the very max - where snow lies closer to or at freezing

    It should continue cold and wintry thereafter with a cold air mass prevailing and a continued risk of snowfall.

    GFSOPEU00_117_1.png

    P.S some fronts may come close to southern areas at times which would enhance sleet or snow threat here occasionally.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭ booferking


    I'm firmly on the Greenland express can't wait.ðŸ˜


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    maxresdefault.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,664 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    I'd pour salt over that 120hr snow if I were you Kermit!

    See what it's like in 36 hours and I may muster a little more hope.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,101 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    ME very muted, at this point, for next week:

    Cool, windy and showery, with some wintry showers in places.


  • Registered Users Posts: 467 ✭✭ gerrybhoy


    Kermit,i love all your posts regarding the snow,im like a big kid myself when it comes to the white gold,but dont take this the wrong way...your a bastarding Jonah of late :D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Fail to prepare, prepare to fail. :D

    BTW the forecast in the OP is pretty accurate so take the measures needed depending on your location.


  • Registered Users Posts: 467 ✭✭ gerrybhoy


    Fail to prepare, prepare to fail. :D

    BTW the forecast in the OP is pretty accurate so take the measures needed depending on your location.
    Hows it looking for Dublin im clueless with models lad


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    gerrybhoy wrote: »
    Hows it looking for Dublin im clueless with models lad

    You'll need a bit of luck away from the nw and north midlands I suspect.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,192 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Fail to prepare, prepare to fail. :D

    BTW the forecast in the OP is pretty accurate

    I'm not so sure. Countrywide snow? Whatever about the north, there's a huge difference in the south. Time will tell.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    I'm not so sure. Countrywide snow? Whatever about the north, there's a huge difference in the south. Time will tell.

    Yes, countrywide snow showers, even the south.

    Far southeast could remain dry. Sorry guys. But it also may not. Hmmm


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  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭ booferking


    Snow express in all its glory 6z run.

    gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    Could be nice for Northwest but in Carlow a Northwesterly never delivers except on higher ground.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,192 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Yes, countrywide snow showers, even the south.

    Far southeast could remain dry. Sorry guys. But it also may not. Hmmm

    If you're talking higher ground then maybe, but I'm talking to low levels. Sorry, I can't see any evidence of that on current data.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,728 ✭✭✭ Rebelbrowser


    Never seen so much pink on a run as the 6z gfs. Some of the more exciting samples below. Still I find it hard to take gfs precipitation charts seriously. If every snow event they forecast for my area at 5 days out actually happened I would see snow 7 times a year. I last saw snow about 3 years ago. anyway, enjoying these for now...

    18011618_1106.gif

    18011818_1106.gif

    I would add that there are plenty frames in between showing blue so I think even when it does snow it may get washed away a few hours later. still I'd expect decent lying snow north of a line from Galway to Belfast. Not hopeful for down here. Fleeting snow at best I suspect and similar prospects for Dublin. Down here we will certainly get the precipitation but sleety rain the most likely outcome. Dublin better for snow but may not get the precipitation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    If you're talking higher ground then maybe, but I'm talking to low levels. Sorry, I can't see any evidence of that on current data.

    *saves post*


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,085 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    Pm air = poor man's cold. Snow likely for north and northwest along with hills,for the rest of us probably slush at best.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    EC has snow falling to the surface Wednesday/Thursday with the the freezing level below 1000ft across the country, this is generally the threshold used to see if snow will make it the surface. Distribution of showers too difficult to determine now- but avoid taking any global model prediction as gospel.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    not expecting much here in south Meath either. Most of the time precipitation fails to make it this far and when it does it's rarely more than a dusting, or some very transitional snow. So far this winter most of the cold spells were mild enough to produce precipitation here but we mostly ended up with cold rain or a sleety mess. The last time our area had proper snow from an Atlantic source was probably 1982 but that in itself is a once in a lifetime event.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Looks very good to me especially the 06 gfs
    Favoured spots could get a right pasting with all areas likely to see at least some snow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 447 ✭✭ KingdomRushed


    Yes, I’ve seen charts like this, entire country under ‘pink’ for snow again and again, and it’s always the same. High ground in mid ulster, Leitrim, Sligo etc get it good. Then at low levels in a few northerly spots to a depth of 2-3cm max. But everywhere else the NW flow won’t cut the mustard. Though I would expect a few pics of wheelie bins photographed at dawn with a cm of snow of them as proof that this event ‘delivers’ it won’t be much more than that.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭ booferking


    Below is the chart for 29th Jan 2015 many places reported widespread snowfalls this time the mods look even better and lasted 3 days longer.

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2015/archives-2015-1-29-0-0.png

    http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2015/archives-2015-1-29-0-1.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    Yes, I’ve seen charts like this, entire country under ‘pink’ for snow again and again, and it’s always the same. High ground in mid ulster, Leitrim, Sligo etc get it good. Then at low levels in a few northerly spots to a depth of 2-3cm max. But everywhere else the NW flow won’t cut the mustard. Though I would expect a few pics of wheelie bins photographed at dawn with a cm of snow of them as proof that this event ‘delivers’ it won’t be much more than that.

    Yep it usually works out like that with the gfs generally watered down and down run after run. People mention about the colder air from North America entering the mix so maybe that might improve our chances.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,564 ✭✭✭✭ average_runner


    Worry about this on Monday if needs be


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    I'd pour salt over that 120hr snow if I were you Kermit!

    See what it's like in 36 hours and I may muster a little more hope.

    Or in Sligos case see what charts say 1 hour before


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    slightly OT but I just noticed RTE's lunchtime forecast has a new look with new graphics, map looks higher resolution and the 5 day outlook they were showing 0C for daytime on Monday and Tuesday with snow symbols over the west and north of the country.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,358 ✭✭✭ highdef


    The five day forecast at the end of the lunchtime news on Rte one showed wintry precipitation and a temp of 0c for both Monday and Tuesday. As mentioned before, those forecasts are extremely generic however the graphic was interesting.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    highdef wrote: »
    The five day forecast at the end of the lunchtime news on Rte one showed wintry precipitation and a temp of 0c for both Monday and Tuesday. As mentioned before, those forecasts are extremely generic however the graphic was interesting.

    yep I very much doubt we will see a nationwide 0C on Monday and Tuesday during daylight hours, we rarely even get that from the best Siberian easterly's!. I reckon 2 to 5C will be average temps On Monday and Tuesday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,192 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    *saves post*

    Save away. I hope your forecast does come to fruition, with tonnes of nice dry fluffy snow, however I'd be surprised to see any at low levels, except across maybe Ulster and maybe the north midlands briefly during the night. The temperature gradient between north and south is huge next week, so below 200 metres I don't expect any there.


  • Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭ derekon


    Love your enthusiasm Kermit!

    Folks (particularly newbies) - away from
    high ground in the north and west, this will be a cold rain/sleet event and I certainly would not be telling people there is heavy snow on the way!!!

    A wee bit of realism folks!!

    D


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    The likelihood is the flow will not be as clean as the GFS is currently projecting. There will be more small scale disturbances in the flow and potential threatening low pressure systems passing across the country. So it will be modified from time to time- however when we do get that clean WSW flow i would expect snow to sea level away from the western coastal fringes where will more likely see hail etc. Certainly likely to be a lot of sferics.


This discussion has been closed.
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