Property Market 2018

Samuel T. Cogley

Is ZZ Top going to show up soon?

DubJJ

rosmoke wrote: »

KevinCavan wrote: »

Thanks for your post. I hate the bullsh1t here that a builder can’t make a profit unless he sells for €500,000 type nonsense. That a builder can’t get out of bed for less than €1000 per day. I heard on the radio before that there would be no housing crisis if we were able to ship them over from abroad. Don’t think Spanish builders are spouting the same crap.

I personally know X who just moved in Ireland 4 months ago and started a construction company here. In the last 2 months he made 50k after taxes, only from his couch. Gets contracts and pays workers (has 17 workers now).
You might think this is bull****, but this has been confirmed by the person who does his taxes as well.

Y is a 22 years old lad, has a construction company. Take home, after salaries taxes etc, made 500k for the 1st half of this year.

I'm in IT sector, I think I chose the wrong field.

This is where all our money goes when we buy a house, not in quality, but in someone else's pockets.

Just another reason why I think houses are overpriced and they don't reflect the quality ..
Of course there wouldn't be a crisis if we could ship them over, you could buy a modular house from Austria for 50-80k euro, and it would definitely be BER A. But are we allowed to? No ...
Instead we have people looking at living on a boat, campervans, 3 hours commutes, temporary log houses (you're allowed to have one on your land as long as your neighbour doesn't complain).

What am I talking about .. I live in Dublin 24 and it takes me 1h30min to get to city centre. So 3 hours commute .. think I need another coffee.

I think you're very gullible

rosmoke

I could say much more, but it's none of my business. So I'll leave it there. I do understand it's hard to believe.

lawred2

rosmoke wrote: »

I could say much more, but it's none of my business. So I'll leave it there. I do understand it's hard to believe.

Definitely mob money

utmbuilder

phunkadelic wrote: »

I think this slowdown is restricted to properties in your price range. Down closer to 400k, there's still multiple parties bidding on anything even half way liveable!

the market is nuts taking time to even move the 240k stock since august

dont get it

The Student

utmbuilder wrote: »

the market is nuts taking time to even move the 240k stock since august

dont get it

I have noticed that myself, I suspect its to do with the income multiples set by the central bank. People are unwilling to drop the price as they see what previous properties in the area have achieved so they will hold off until then.

I would expect they will start to move when the new batch of exemptions are available and then the market will stall again.

M.Cribben

utmbuilder wrote: »

the market is nuts taking time to even move the 240k stock since august

dont get it

That's simply not true.
The average house price in Dublin is €375k (https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/average-house-price-in-dublin-at-375k-report-shows-472534.html)

A quick scan of property price register for August 2018 reveals 1,107 transactions for Dublin alone, across all price ranges.
Where exactly is this €240k stock that's taking time to sell?

rosmoke

This is the number of properties that have been sold in the month of August according to PPR.
However there could still be a delay of a couple of weeks between sale and them showing on PPR, so take it with a pinch of salt.

Bob24

Total number of houses sold by county, first half of 2017 vs first half of 2018: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0922/995366-property-price-register/

Up 3.6% nationally and 8% in Dublin. Cork and Galway are actually dropping (but no breakdown of county v.s. city).

rosmoke

Bob24 wrote: »

Total number of houses sold by county, first half of 2017 vs first half of 2018: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0922/995366-property-price-register/

Up 3.6% nationally and 8% in Dublin. Cork and Galway are actually dropping (but no breakdown of county v.s. city).

not helping the movement

Shedite27

Bob24 wrote: »

Total number of houses sold by county, first half of 2017 vs first half of 2018: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0922/995366-property-price-register/

Up 3.6% nationally and 8% in Dublin. Cork and Galway are actually dropping (but no breakdown of county v.s. city).

So depending on how you want to argue there's either:
1. A lack of supply
2. A lack of buyers/money/the crash is coming!

the butcher

International investors are pulling out of Oz and they are experiencing major drops in Sydney/Melbourne etc. NYC is dropping too.

Here in Ireland, figures show that more than five in every 10 purchases in the residential property market is by a cash buyer. Earlier this month, governor Philip Lane said cash buyers are limiting the regulator’s ability to control house prices as they are outside the scope of the bank’s prudential rules. According to figures compiled by Savills, investors are some of the main drivers of cash sales, accounting for a little more than a third of all cash sales last year.

These are the forces in the main that are driving prices. Once they stop investing here due to external factors (Brexit on the horizon, trade wars, italian/Greek debt crisis etc), the market will turn to this "soft" landing we've been hearing about in the past few months.

There is definitely a feeling of a plateau at the 400k mark and the higher end of the market, like in Dublin areas, have dropped. Daftdrop shows median price of Dublin in July this year was 420,000, now at 385,000.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uqb02qUFtCg

Bob24

the butcher wrote: »

Earlier this month, governor Philip Lane said cash buyers are limiting the regulator’s ability to control house prices as they are outside the scope of the bank’s prudential rules.

Did he say that?? (I see price moderation as a desirable side effect of prudential rules, but for me it is not the remit of the CBI to control house prices - their remit it to make sure people don’t contract unsustainable debt and banks don’t take too much risk with their mortgages, which is the goal of prudential rules rather than controlling prices)

Marius34

the butcher wrote: »

Here in Ireland, figures show that more than five in every 10 purchases in the residential property market is by a cash buyer.

That's simply not true anymore. Would like to see the numbers, what they calculate and when. You can get some numbers from bpfi reports, or calculate sold properties vs mortgage drawdowns, nowhere you'll get that high numbers of cash...

kippy

Marius34 wrote: »

That's simply not true anymore. Would like to see the numbers, what they calculate and when. You can get some numbers from bpfi reports, or calculate sold properties vs mortgage drawdowns, nowhere you'll get that high numbers of cash...

I'd like to see how they get to these figures also and how up to date they are.

What do the determine is a "cash" buyer? Is there a possibility that properties purchased REITS and the like are being classed as "cash purchases"?

Marius34

kippy wrote: »

I'd like to see how they get to these figures also and how up to date they are.

What do the determine is a "cash" buyer? Is there a possibility that properties purchased REITS and the like are being classed as "cash purchases"?

I believe most of the REITS fall under RIL (Residential investment letting) mortgage type. But even just looking and total property sold in Ireland in H1 2018, which is slightly below 25K, and if we take only mortgage of FTB + Mover Purchases its already more than half of those properties.

the butcher

From May this year Pearse Doherty during a Joint Committee on Finance "I have been in communication with Professor Lane privately about this. I have major concerns about this. The figures presented here today speak volumes. Some 55% of home purchases are by non-mortgage buyers, with a sizeable section done by real estate investment trusts, REITs, which we facilitate generously through our tax codes."

Marius34 wrote: »

That's simply not true anymore.

Don't say it's not true anymore without anything to disprove it.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/housing-who-are-the-cash-buyers-and-how-come-there-s-so-many-of-them-1.3224402

Shedite27

Marius34 wrote: »

That's simply not true anymore. Would like to see the numbers, what they calculate and when. You can get some numbers from bpfi reports, or calculate sold properties vs mortgage drawdowns, nowhere you'll get that high numbers of cash...

That's "simply" true, according to the Govenor of the Irish Central Bank
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/central-bank-singles-out-cash-buyers-as-key-driver-of-house-prices-1.3214180

Marius34

In previous posts in here it was discussed about first 1H 2018. While the article is from September 2017, speaking about what someone told in August 2017, I don't think they had even data for 1H 2017 before September, and doesn't provide any number expect 2013 and older. I'll try to provide some data of total sales vs mortgage tonight. Meanwhile you can check bpfi data on cash transactions, and you might get a very different picture.

Reversal

"New data shows house prices nationwide flatline"

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-data-shows-house-prices-nationwide-flatline-with-a-semid-now-beyond-reach-for-ordinary-families-37346952.html

lawred2

Reversal wrote: »

"New data shows house prices nationwide flatline"

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-data-shows-house-prices-nationwide-flatline-with-a-semid-now-beyond-reach-for-ordinary-families-37346952.html

that article also makes a claim that mortgage buyers are 78% of the market

the terminology is depressing... "flatlining" "frozen" etc all negative

Reversal

lawred2 wrote: »

the terminology is depressing... "flatlining" "frozen" etc all negative

True. But is it any different to articles six months ago, using "soaring" etc. It's what journalists do, but the figures certainly paint a picture.

Bob24

Reversal wrote: »

"New data shows house prices nationwide flatline"

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-data-shows-house-prices-nationwide-flatline-with-a-semid-now-beyond-reach-for-ordinary-families-37346952.html

Has anyone found a link to the study they are referring to in the article? (I always prefer to see the original material rather than the personal interpretation a journalist has made of it)

Samuel T. Cogley

I'm at 210K according to an EA who valued an identicle apartment - roll on another mad increase in apartment prices please! :pac:

Samuel T. Cogley

Reversal wrote: »

"New data shows house prices nationwide flatline"

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-data-shows-house-prices-nationwide-flatline-with-a-semid-now-beyond-reach-for-ordinary-families-37346952.html

In fairness that's sensible territory of 1-2% per year. Agree it's all negative terminology but then being measured about it wouldn't sell the sindo. Great to see the Central Bank rules finally kicking in. We'll see prices perk up a bit with exemptions and then come back down again once they run out.


450K for a semi D in a capital city isn't complete madness in fairness either.

Marius34

the butcher wrote: »

From May this year Pearse Doherty during a Joint Committee on Finance "I have been in communication with Professor Lane privately about this. I have major concerns about this. The figures presented here today speak volumes. Some 55% of home purchases are by non-mortgage buyers, with a sizeable section done by real estate investment trusts, REITs, which we facilitate generously through our tax codes."



Don't say it's not true anymore without anything to disprove it.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/housing-who-are-the-cash-buyers-and-how-come-there-s-so-many-of-them-1.3224402

So here to prove that its not true that over half of the properties buyers are cash buyers.
First BPFI report:
https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/BPFI-Housing-Market-Monitor-Q2-2018-for-website.pdf
"Cash sales accounted for 30.4% of sales on an annualised
basis in Q2 2018, down from 36.9% a year earlier."

Second lets make a simple calculation ourselves.
http://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/BPFI-Mortgage-Drawdowns-time-series-Q2-2018.xls

You can find property sales number from PPR or CSO, there are some difference, where CSO is slightly lower, while PPR has some duplicated records, so real number would be slightly less of property sales.
I'll take only 2 types of mortgages, even excluding RIL (Residental investment) and other types of mortgages, it's already more than half of properties covered (see attached):


FTB+Mover Mortgage; PPR Total Sales; Mortgage (%)
2016 h1 9,790 21,418 45.71
2016 h2 13,799 28,265 48.82
2017 h1 11,947 23,598 50.63
2017 h2 16,073 30,999 51.85
2018 h1 13,091 24,587 53.24



So that can't really be true, that nowadays more than half of the purchase are cash buyers. I don't believe you can find reports with data showing it.

Cyrus

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

In fairness that's sensible territory of 1-2% per year. Agree it's all negative terminology but then being measured about it wouldn't sell the sindo. Great to see the Central Bank rules finally kicking in. We'll see prices perk up a bit with exemptions and then come back down again once they run out.


450K for a semi D in a capital city isn't complete madness in fairness either.

Yes all agreed

And if they can resist the temptation to alter the rules price growth will moderate

Henbabani

Reversal wrote: »

"New data shows house prices nationwide flatline"

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-data-shows-house-prices-nationwide-flatline-with-a-semid-now-beyond-reach-for-ordinary-families-37346952.html

Finally some good news.
It's a bit too late but still good starting

Happy4all

Henbabani wrote: »

Finally some good news.
It's a bit too late but still good starting

Still think they will start rising next Spring. Supply still not enough.

Bob24

Cyrus wrote: »

And if they can resist the temptation to alter the rules price growth will moderate

Agreed.

And while I hope the rules won’t change (or be worked around), I’d say the chances of it happening are not that low - especially if there is an election and with people complaining about the housing crisis. While most of us on this thread agree it would be a counter productive way to tackle the problem, telling people the governement will give them a grant and/or allow them to borrow more to help them buy a house would be a tempting election promise and FF are already making this type of noise.