Property Market 2018

handlemaster

Villa05 wrote: »

handlemaster wrote:

You think. The banks will be Rolling the carpet out ? What happened are the banks imploded last time ?

If you remember there was great pressure on the banks to lend after they were bailed out and they did but only to candidates that displayed exceptional prudence as the poster here has shown.

So yes the red carpet will be rolled out in a collapse to a person who has shown to be savvy

Not a chance. Someone on 40k would not be a borrower banks would run for

Bob24

Google just purchased the whole Boland's Quay development currently under construction in Grand Canal Dock (the office space, but also the apartments and the shops): http://www.thejournal.ie/google-bolands-quay-4020888-May2018/

It was going to be very expensive anyway, but that is another development which won't go on the open market for individual buyers.

Graham

Bob24 wrote: »

It was going to be very expensive anyway, but that is another development which won't go on the open market for individual buyers.

46 apartments isn't it, the rest is commercial.

Villa05

handlemaster wrote:

Not a chance. Someone on 40k would not be a borrower banks would run for

Disagree, Banks were under pressure to lend after being bailed out and Gov set up a new quango to investigate complaints from refused mortgage applicants.

Banks response was to lend to these low risk high deposit, strong consistent savings history applicants, remember the collapse began as the ssia saving schemes were maturing

The property the applicant is after has fallen between 30/50% and the deposit is now close to 50% of purchase price. It really is 0 risk for the bank and it allows the bank to go back to the Gov and show them we are open for businesses

I know this from experience (mid west market rather than Dublin) and I'm including people on far less than 40 k.

Bob24

Graham wrote: »

46 apartments isn't it, the rest is commercial.

Yes 46. In terms of new builds in the area those can be added to the 190 apartments in Capital Dock which won’t go to the open market either. Not sure about the other developments, but between those 2 it is already probably more than half of the new builds in GCD which won’t be available to individual purchasers.

Islander13

Bob24 wrote: »

Yes 46. In terms of new builds in the area those can be added to the 190 apartments in Capital Dock which won’t go to the open market either. Not sure about the other developments, but between those 2 it is already probably more than half of the new builds in GCD which won’t be available to individual purchasers.

People will still be living in them though. I consider the google purchase to be a great long term thing for dublin

kippy

Islander13 wrote: »

People will still be living in them though. I consider the google purchase to be a great long term thing for dublin

Exactly - someone has to live in them......they would have had to live elsewhere otherwise.....

Bob24

Islander13 wrote: »

People will still be living in them though. I consider the google purchase to be a great long term thing for dublin

The argument was made already on this ahead I believe so I won't do it in details again, but there is a problem when individuals can even have access to a large number of residential property sales in an area. And especially if they start depending on their employers for housing - this is what will happen in Capital Docks and quite possibly what Google is planning for Boland's Quay (while I am not especially found of REITs I have nothing against their existence, but I do have a problem with employers controlling a large number of residential units in an area as I wouldn't like good housing option to become a job perk you only get with certain employers and which gives those employers leverage over their employees).

We of course agree that Google making a long term commitment in terms of office space is a good thing though.

Rew

Id say Google will use them as short and medium stay corporate accommodation. They would have staff coming and going all the time. When they hire and relocate people into Ireland they will give them a couple of months in the apartments to get settled and find their own. What they wont do is provide them to staff to live in full time, they have thousands of staff this is a drop in the ocean in terms of housing house them.

AlmightyCushion

Rew wrote: »

Id say Google will use them as short and medium stay corporate accommodation. They would have staff coming and going all the time. When they hire and relocate people into Ireland they will give them a couple of months in the apartments to get settled and find their own. What they wont do is provide them to staff to live in full time, they have thousands of staff this is a drop in the ocean in terms of housing house them.

Nope, they're letting them out.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-buys-bolands-quay-site-in-dublin-s-docklands-1.3500256

Google will retain the office accommodation for its own use and will appoint a commercial letting agent to manage the letting of the remaining commercial premises and apartments.

myshirt

kippy wrote: »

Exactly - someone has to live in them......they would have had to live elsewhere otherwise.....

The docklands area rentals are mostly rented to non nationals. Would like to see a mix in the area if I had my way, old, young, poor, rich, Irish, non Irish, etc.

On a separate note, are we going back to the days of the land owning class and the peasant class? The last time there was mass provision of bed and board by employers was the time of the workhouses. They truly have you by the gonads if you need to leave that job, as you lose the roof over your head also. That impacts your wife. It impacts your kids. You see it now with funds buying large swathes of houses. A mortgage on one of these houses in Dublin 15 would be 1,300 a month. In comes the fund, buys them all and rents them for 2,300. See daft.ie.

Ireland is attracting this money because there is good return here. The youth are receptive to the bollox being sweat out of them and the maximum squeezed from them for the benefit of others. They are good work horses. We have baby boomer and early gen'x'r' public service people in this country who benefited from massive, massive, direct government intervention, with the bill lumped onto the youth, and even the younger entrants to their own profession. When that can happen successfully and we don't cut public sector wages, scrap their pensions, up their hours, tell them that they are not closing the door on younger people getting a job so they can keep the gravy train going, cut out the jobs for the boys, jobs for your friends, and give the better wages to the new entrants, and the lesser wages to the older (I e flip current situation), etc, it pricks the ears of those looking to make more money. Now of course there are many factors driving investment, but this is s great country to sweat the bollox out of the youth. They have no problem with precarious employment, precarious housing situations, having both partners working, and paying 50% of take home pay for rent, right up to their late 30's. It's a great little earner.

Bob24

Rew wrote: »

Id say Google will use them as short and medium stay corporate accommodation.

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Nope, they're letting them out.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-buys-bolands-quay-site-in-dublin-s-docklands-1.3500256

No one knows for sure what they will do with them, it is just speculation and I’d say they probably haven’t made a final decision themselves yet. But given how tense the rental market is in the area and if this doesn’t change by the time the development is completed, form their point of view it would make a lot of sense to use the apartments for their own employees (which btw is not incompatible with what the IT article says: they could appoint a letting agent and instruct that agent to rent them out based on a waiting list of Google employees, which is also how Capital Dock apartments will be rented out - with a first option for employees of companies occupying the commercial units of the developement, which in the current market means exclusivity for those employees).

kippy

myshirt wrote: »

The docklands area rentals are mostly rented to non nationals. Would like to see a mix in the area if I had my way, old, young, poor, rich, Irish, non Irish, etc.

On a separate note, are we going back to the days of the land owning class and the peasant class? The last time there was mass provision of bed and board by employers was the time of the workhouses. They truly have you by the gonads if you need to leave that job, as you lose the roof over your head also. That impacts your wife. It impacts your kids.

You can't have it every way though.

I'd don't see the issue here to be honest. And the comparison and use of the term workhouse shows a complete disregard for the differences between both the employers and the standard of accommodation.
If its a perk of the job its the same as any perk. No one is forcing you to work for the employer nor is anyone forcing you to remain with them.

Pussyhands

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

You should be able to get a Mortgage for 140K, where abouts are you looking?

Thinking North Kildare.

Zenify

Does anyone have any official stats about the amount of houses going for sale this year compared to last?

I get myhome alerts and they are going nuts the last few weeks.

myshirt

kippy wrote: »

You can't have it every way though.

I'd don't see the issue here to be honest. And the comparison and use of the term workhouse shows a complete disregard for the differences between both the employers and the standard of accommodation.
If its a perk of the job its the same as any perk. No one is forcing you to work for the employer nor is anyone forcing you to remain with them.

The point is you are sweating the asset and holding the employee by the gonads.

I'll concede on this particular one, as they are high skilled jobs and mobile employees. However the problem is when it spills over to unskilled jobs like hotel workers, labourers, bus drivers, road sweepers, retail workers etc

myshirt

Zenify wrote: »

Does anyone have any official stats about the amount of houses going for sale this year compared to last?

I get myhome alerts and they are going nuts the last few weeks.

There is a lot of stock in the bucket of a 7 year CGT exemption. You will see this stock starting to come to market now. Unfortunately I can't see it having a massive impact.

Creamy Goodness

Anyone know roughly how long it takes for a new build to go up? Looking at one at the moment and the roof has just gone on so I’m wondering roughly how long would be left on the build.

Bluefoam

I would have thought that most new builds are sold before the building begins... However, it can be as quick as 6months, but there are also many that take a very long time.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

Anyone know roughly how long it takes for a new build to go up? Looking at one at the moment and the roof has just gone on so I’m wondering roughly how long would be left on the build.

Very hard to say. Depends massively on the builder and the site.

Villa05

myshirt wrote:

I'll concede on this particular one, as they are high skilled jobs and mobile employees. However the problem is when it spills over to unskilled jobs like hotel workers, labourers, bus drivers, road sweepers, retail workers etc

Is it not the employer identifying an issue with the housing market and developing a solution. The market is rigged, yes, let's attack those that are rigging the market not those that are attempting to provide solutions.

A home close to your workplace is a very valuable income source in a rigged market place

Creamy Goodness

Bluefoam wrote: »

I would have thought that most new builds are sold before the building begins... However, it can be as quick as 6months, but there are also many that take a very long time.

I kinda knew the question was a “how long was a piece of string” question. These were sold off plan. I’ve 6 months from mortgage offer to get the keys and draw down. Problem I have is the rules changed for exemption and I don’t want to have to reapply again and not get the exemption.

Just trying to gauge how long they’d take considering 2-3 weeks ago none of them had a roof and rendered walls (if that’s the right term). The EA said they should be ready August/October, however they were 3 months late on the launch which is causing the concern.

awec

If your house has the roof on and the windows in so it's weather tight then I'd be surprised if it wasn't ready by October.

deconduo

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

I kinda knew the question was a “how long was a piece of string” question. These were sold off plan. I’ve 6 months from mortgage offer to get the keys and draw down. Problem I have is the rules changed for exemption and I don’t want to have to reapply again and not get the exemption.

Just trying to gauge how long they’d take considering 2-3 weeks ago none of them had a roof and rendered walls (if that’s the right term). The EA said they should be ready August/October, however they were 3 months late on the launch which is causing the concern.

Our timeline was roughly:
Apr: Foundations in place
May: Walls
July: Roof, windows in, outside completely finished
Nov: Ready for snagging

We were told November/Early December from the start, so it was pretty much on time.

erudec

Bob24 wrote: »

No one knows for sure what they will do with them, it is just speculation and I’d say they probably haven’t made a final decision themselves yet. But given how tense the rental market is in the area and if this doesn’t change by the time the development is completed, form their point of view it would make a lot of sense to use the apartments for their own employees (which btw is not incompatible with what the IT article says: they could appoint a letting agent and instruct that agent to rent them out based on a waiting list of Google employees, which is also how Capital Dock apartments will be rented out - with a first option for employees of companies occupying the commercial units of the developement, which in the current market means exclusivity for those employees).

Wouldn't that just be a tax disaster for the employees? It would have to be taxed at the going rate for a private apartment in the area. A lot of Google employees might just prefer to commute and enjoy higher after-tax pay. I'm not an accountant, of course.

erudec

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Very hard to say. Depends massively on the builder and the site.

And that's why housing is fecked forever in Ireland. Imagine you asked how long from start to finish it takes a plumber to change a tap?

If the answer was "somewhere between 30 mins and 9 weeks" we'd be annoyed. But builders give us an equally unacceptable answer and we just shrug.

We need to impose speed standards on builders soon if they won't do it themselves. Ban laggards from taking part in the construction industry for life. Import builders from Hong Kong. They know how to put up a solid building in a good time frame over there.

erudec

So, let's assume there's a major global recession that hits at the end of this year. Will the housing bust again?

If it does, will it bounce back within five years like last time?

Will the banks all get wiped out and need a fat bailout from someone?

Or will the banks remain solid as a rock?

awec

erudec wrote: »

And that's why housing is fecked forever in Ireland. Imagine you asked how long from start to finish it takes a plumber to change a tap?

If the answer was "somewhere between 30 mins and 9 weeks" we'd be annoyed. But builders give us an equally unacceptable answer and we just shrug.

We need to impose speed standards on builders soon if they won't do it themselves. Ban laggards from taking part in the construction industry for life. Import builders from Hong Kong. They know how to put up a solid building in a good time frame over there.

Bit of a difference between building a house and changing a tap.

Bob24

erudec wrote: »

Wouldn't that just be a tax disaster for the employees? It would have to be taxed at the going rate for a private apartment in the area. A lot of Google employees might just prefer to commute and enjoy higher after-tax pay. I'm not an accountant, of course.

I’m not sure what you mean. Google would operate as any other landlord and it should make no difference to employees in terms of taxes compared to renting from another landorld.

(if you mean rent would be paid directly through google’s payroll, I doubt they would do that)

erudec

erudec wrote: »

So, let's assume there's a major global recession that hits at the end of this year. Will the housing bust again?

If it does, will it bounce back within five years like last time?

Will the banks all get wiped out and need a fat bailout from someone?

Or will the banks remain solid as a rock?

Will Irish jobs be lost?
Will mortgages not be paid?

The last problem was more unpaid commercial type loans...... developers etc caught with land that they'd paid well for with borrowed money.

The domestic loans that folks couldn't pay didn't help obviously but they weren't the problem really.

Most of the bubble mortgages have a fair dent in them now.... 12 years on from 2006.