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Right to a house?
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€330,000 is the average cost of building a three bedroom semi-detached house in Greater Dublin
http://www.newstalk.com/Heres-how-much-it-costs-to-build-a-house
Let's say the average cost to build a 3 bed house, taxes included is: €330,000.
Now thats a 3 bed semi. A generous estimate when the average house would be maybe 2 bed and attached. But we'll go with €330,000 per house to build, pay taxes and own to do with what you like.
If we took the current housing strategy for funds we know exist there is €5.35 billion, through a social housing strategy to build 47,000 homes.
The rest is to assist the building industry in building an average of 25,000 homes a year by 2020. None of these figures are set in stone. They are goals.
https://www.finegael.ie/our-priorities/housing-homelessness/
The flaw here is if people can't afford the prices, so what if we see more private builds? Might prices come down due to more stock? Unlikely if the tax payer is called upon to assist buyers to meet the prices set. The prices are not being set based on what people are willing to pay, they are being set by how much of a tax payer funded subsidy the buyer can get. This negates the need for a seller to lower prices due to traditional market reasons.
How many state owned builds could we get for 5.35bn, at an average build cost of 330,000? Properties owned, built and paid for by the state? Too many, more than enough by far? A ridiculous amount? Let's just cover the crises and put the change towards Garda contracts
Add to this the idea that working people will be paying rent in these state owned dwellings, based on their income, not received tax payer paid rent allowances which go to private profit, and people on welfare will be paying what they can. All of this coupled together, even if we break even, which I'd expect we'd make over time, with the 39m spend per annum on hotels decreasing over the years and no longer needing to rent privately or buy at market rates to attempt to stem the growing problems. It seems to me to be the better deal for the tax payer.
The problem is, some people don't like the idea of others getting cheaper rent then they are. Even if that rent goes back to the tax payer. They seemingly prefer tax payer money going to rent allowance so people can rent privately, because that way the perception is they are paying the same rent as everyone else.
The policies however, are designed to bolster the housing industry, even though this is not working currently.
We simply need to build enough social housing to cool the market to a price working people can afford.
It's in the tax payers interest that we seek value for money, even if the perception is that some are getting a free ride, because it will be cheaper over time than the current policy of looking to the private market as a poor stop gap.
We are buying housing at market rates to house people. We are also putting them up in hotels.0 -
Matt Barrett wrote: »Let's say the average cost to build a 3 bed house, taxes included is: €330,000.
Now thats a 3 bed semi. A generous estimate when the average house would be maybe 2 bed and attached. But we'll go with €330,000 per house to build, pay taxes and own to do with what you like.
If we took the current housing strategy for funds we know exist there is €5.35 billion, through a social housing strategy to build 47,000 homes.
The rest is to assist the building industry in building an average of 25,000 homes a year by 2020. None of these figures are set in stone. They are goals.
https://www.finegael.ie/our-priorities/housing-homelessness/
The flaw here is if people can't afford the prices, so what if we see more private builds? Might prices come down due to more stock? Unlikely if the tax payer is called upon to assist buyers to meet the prices set. The prices are not being set based on what people are willing to pay, they are being set by how much of a tax payer funded subsidy the buyer can get. This negates the need for a seller to lower prices due to traditional market reasons.
How many state owned builds could we get for 5.35bn, at an average build cost of 330,000? Properties owned, built and paid for by the state? Too many, more than enough by far? A ridiculous amount? Let's just cover the crises and put the change towards Garda contracts
Add to this the idea that working people will be paying rent in these state owned dwellings, based on their income, not received tax payer paid rent allowances which go to private profit, and people on welfare will be paying what they can. All of this coupled together, even if we break even, which I'd expect we'd make over time, with the 39m spend per annum on hotels decreasing over the years and no longer needing to rent privately or buy at market rates to attempt to stem the growing problems. It seems to me to be the better deal for the tax payer.
The problem is, some people don't like the idea of others getting cheaper rent then they are. Even if that rent goes back to the tax payer. They seemingly prefer tax payer money going to rent allowance so people can rent privately, because that way the perception is they are paying the same rent as everyone else.
The policies however, are designed to bolster the housing industry, even though this is not working currently.
We simply need to build enough social housing to cool the market to a price working people can afford.
It's in the tax payers interest that we seek value for money, even if the perception is that some are getting a free ride, because it will be cheaper over time than the current policy of looking to the private market as a poor stop gap.
We are buying housing at market rates to house people. We are also putting them up in hotels.
While 5.35 billion might seem a lot of money when building it is quite small amount. Give that we are building a mix of housing 1,2 and 3 bed units and even some 4 bed units. If we assume that all units are build on already land owned by the LA's and government and no land costs are involved how far would this money go. It is hard to quantify building costs so it is best maybe to look at different senario. Total refurbs will cost virtually the same as new builds.
If the average build cost was 80K/unit then we would get nearly 44K units I would imagine that in this price id not at present a realistic build price.
If the average build cost was 120K/unit then we would get nearly 30K units IMO this price range might be a tad tight for a good mix of units across the country.
If the average build cost was about 150K/unit then we would get a 23-25K units. Is this a realistic average for a good mix of 2-3 bed units with a limited amount of 1&4 bed units.
But 23-25K units will not solve the social housing issue IMO and this number of units may not be attainable because it is unlikely that all land will be available without any cost to exchequer as well as that a large part of the problem is in Dublin with its associated higher costs. As well as that you have the added cost of services. But you are leaving a hostage out there in that you are using up most if not all of available publicaly owned land banks
On an economic analysis you have to look at the two choices to see which is most economic using the private sector with all it flaws to fund capital part and government to fund the program through rent allowance or government to build the houses and which is best for the tax payer.
If the average units including land value is costing 200K what is the average rent allowance and average rent paid across the country. It is hard to get accurate figure but the national average is about 1200/month or 14.4k/year from this article
https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/revealed-the-average-rent-in-each-county-in-ireland-36317785.html
I imagine that this is skewed a bit by some higher end and specialist accomodation. We could assume that average social housing rents are in the 1K bracket. Rent allowance rates are hard to assertain but these are from 2016 and will have gone up by around 15% at a guess. So is average rent allowance for a family in the 700 euro bracket
https://www.welfare.ie/en/Pages/Maximum-Rent-Limits-by-County.aspx
One thing you can guess at from this is that Council house rents returns may not even be covering the maintenance costs of the houses. I would imagine that rents are in the 50-60 euro/week for manySlava Ukrainii
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Matt Barrett wrote: »Let's say the average cost to build a 3 bed house, taxes included is: €330,000.
Now thats a 3 bed semi. A generous estimate when the average house would be maybe 2 bed and attached. But we'll go with €330,000 per house to build, pay taxes and own to do with what you like.
If we took the current housing strategy for funds we know exist there is €5.35 billion, through a social housing strategy to build 47,000 homes.
The rest is to assist the building industry in building an average of 25,000 homes a year by 2020. None of these figures are set in stone. They are goals.
https://www.finegael.ie/our-priorities/housing-homelessness/
The flaw here is if people can't afford the prices, so what if we see more private builds? Might prices come down due to more stock? Unlikely if the tax payer is called upon to assist buyers to meet the prices set. The prices are not being set based on what people are willing to pay, they are being set by how much of a tax payer funded subsidy the buyer can get. This negates the need for a seller to lower prices due to traditional market reasons.
How many state owned builds could we get for 5.35bn, at an average build cost of 330,000? Properties owned, built and paid for by the state? Too many, more than enough by far? A ridiculous amount? Let's just cover the crises and put the change towards Garda contracts
Add to this the idea that working people will be paying rent in these state owned dwellings, based on their income, not received tax payer paid rent allowances which go to private profit, and people on welfare will be paying what they can. All of this coupled together, even if we break even, which I'd expect we'd make over time, with the 39m spend per annum on hotels decreasing over the years and no longer needing to rent privately or buy at market rates to attempt to stem the growing problems. It seems to me to be the better deal for the tax payer.
The problem is, some people don't like the idea of others getting cheaper rent then they are. Even if that rent goes back to the tax payer. They seemingly prefer tax payer money going to rent allowance so people can rent privately, because that way the perception is they are paying the same rent as everyone else.
The policies however, are designed to bolster the housing industry, even though this is not working currently.
We simply need to build enough social housing to cool the market to a price working people can afford.
It's in the tax payers interest that we seek value for money, even if the perception is that some are getting a free ride, because it will be cheaper over time than the current policy of looking to the private market as a poor stop gap.
We are buying housing at market rates to house people. We are also putting them up in hotels.
Practically all of the debates on housing are conducted without any references to figures/money/costs.
Above is typical. You mention a figure of €5.35 billion and an average cost of €330,000 per unit. But you don't do the division!
The maths shows 3 houses per €million capital or 3,000 houses per billion.
So €5.35 bn provides 16,500 houses. Say 5,000 per annum over 3 years or 3,000 per annum over 5 years. So €5.35 bn will not go near providing 47,000 social houses.
That's why the Govt cannot afford to build and build for no return and why they are using every trick in the book to get the private sector to pony up the properties to meet the demand.
Factor in then the scarcity of workers and builders and the developers that have been cleared out of the country.0 -
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