Cheltenham Antepost Tickets

WickIow Brave

Slattsy wrote: »

Looks like this after today.

God loves NRNB

Yeah I do think whichever of IO or ABP will win the JLT. RSA is a much hotter race with Monalee, PP, Fountains Windfall. JLT won't take much winning. Mullins could well run both IO and ABP in the JLT. I wasn't expecting him to run both today at all tbh.

Slattsy

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Yeah I do think whichever of IO or ABP will win the JLT. RSA is a much hotter race with Monalee, PP, Fountains Windfall. JLT won't take much winning. Mullins could well run both IO and ABP in the JLT. I wasn't expecting him to run both today at all tbh.

Mullins' comments after the race would lead me to believe IO will go for the JLT.

What he does with ABP is hard to know.

WickIow Brave

Slattsy wrote: »

Mullins' comments after the race would lead me to believe IO will go for the JLT.

What he does with ABP is hard to know.

Oh I haven't heard or read his comments yet. ABP will probably go RSA so. That was a class race today. We could well have seen both the JLT and RSA winner.

Slattsy

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Oh I haven't heard or read his comments yet. ABP will probably go RSA so. That was a class race today. We could well have seen both the JLT and RSA winner.

It was an unbelievable race on paper and lived up to it.

Went through the RSA before the weekend - no way PP is an 11/4 shot, cant have Yanworth or Fountains Windfall, kept coming back to Monalee so wanted to get on before todays race so it all came up Millhouse.

Slattsy

I've cashed out all my Faugheen bets.

WickIow Brave

Slattsy wrote: »

It was an unbelievable race on paper and lived up to it.

Went through the RSA before the weekend - no way PP is an 11/4 shot, cant have Yanworth or Fountains Windfall, kept coming back to Monalee so wanted to get on before todays race so it all came up Millhouse.

Yeah agree on Yanworth and on PP being too short. I fancy FW myself. I'd be with ABP at the prices after today. Was unlucky and got squeezed out at the last so there's an argument for him reversing form with Monalee over today's trip at least. Monalee would relish the RSA more than ABP though I'd have to say.

Fanny Wank

I haven't had a bet but would it be nonsensical to suggest Invitation Only for the 4 miler with Patrick Mullins on board?

Thought Snow Falcon might be another for it but only noticed today he doesn't appear to be entered

krustydoyle

I actually chanced my arm and took 33's on Invitation Only for the 4 Miler before xmas with Powers but only for small money as it was a long shot it was actually gonna run in that race..

Really happy with my 16's on Getabird for the Supreme after those weekend performances too

handsfree2

WickIow Brave wrote: »

Oh I haven't heard or read his comments yet. ABP will probably go RSA so. That was a class race today. We could well have seen both the JLT and RSA winner.

I would have thought the opposite but you never know with Willie.

As in ABP for jlt and IO for RSA

krustydoyle

Where might Patricks Park get an entry?
Surely won with a bit in hand over the weekend

Close Bros Novices on the Tue??

Ive ABP for the JLT antepost.

What has Mullins been saying to indicate that ABP is RSA bound?

slimshady007

TheTorment wrote: »

Ive ABP for the JLT antepost.

What has Mullins been saying to indicate that ABP is RSA bound?

I think he mentioned both races when speaking about plans for ABP and Invitation Only, nothing specivic iirc. To me ABP looked like he was closing on Monalee on the run in and with a bit better luck when crowded jumping the last he may have even won so maybe the RSA might suit his stamina better.

jimjamcos

Is it just me or is Buveur D'air an absolutely woeful price at 2/5?

He's the reigning champion but, while looking good visually and hurdling perfectly, what's the stanard of those he's beaten?

Horses he's beaten over hurdles:

Petit Mouchoir/Footpad/Sceau Royal/Yanworth/Brain Power: All chasers now

The New One/MTOY: Gr2 animals

John Constable/Irving: Handicappers


Melon's form, for example, both in novice and open company, would suggest he's consistently average and it doesn't say much for the form of the British horses Buveur D'Air has beaten that his form ties in closely with likes of TNO and MTOY based on his International run when pulling way too hard.

Buveur D'air looks, travels and jumps like a Champion Hurdle winner but imo, he probably hasn't faced a horse of the quality of even the current below-par version of Faugheen.

Think Faugheen, crazily, may be an ew bet.

WickIow Brave

Yeah I'd agree with you. Buveur D'air looks the part but the Champion Hurdle isn't the foregone conclusion the betting suggests. He's probably shorter than Apple's Jade is for the Mares and he shouldn't be.

dk6dk6

jimjamcos wrote: »

Is it just me or is Buveur D'air an absolutely woeful price at 2/5?

He's the reigning champion but, while looking good visually and hurdling perfectly, what's the stanard of those he's beaten?

Horses he's beaten over hurdles:

Petit Mouchoir/Footpad/Sceau Royal/Yanworth/Brain Power: All chasers now

The New One/MTOY: Gr2 animals

John Constable/Irving: Handicappers


Melon's form, for example, both in novice and open company, would suggest he's consistently average and it doesn't say much for the form of the British horses Buveur D'Air has beaten that his form ties in closely with likes of TNO and MTOY based on his International run when pulling way too hard.

Buveur D'air looks, travels and jumps like a Champion Hurdle winner but imo, he probably hasn't faced a horse of the quality of even the current below-par version of Faugheen.

Think Faugheen, crazily, may be an ew bet.

Think the price is just simply based on the lack of opposition. But agreed 2/5 is madness, most likely winner but at that price is well best left alone.

jimjamcos

dk6dk6 wrote:

Think the price is just simply based on the lack of opposition. But agreed 2/5 is madness, most likely winner but at that price is well best left alone.

Exactly. Bookies have priced him more on Faugheen's form than his own.

Thing is, a below par Faugheen may still be the best he's faced.

culline

Skybet go 5/1 P Nicholls to win the Foxhunters Chase on the final day of Cheltenham. He has Wonderful Charm who is priced generally at 6/1. He also has Pacha Du Polder, Caid Du Berlais, Virak, Unioniste as possible runners. Nicholls trained the winner & runner-up last year. Mathematically speaking it is not a 5/1 shot. Thoughts?

longshotvalue

culline wrote: »

Skybet go 5/1 P Nicholls to win the Foxhunters Chase on the final day of Cheltenham. He has Wonderful Charm who is priced generally at 6/1. He also has Pacha Du Polder, Caid Du Berlais, Virak, Unioniste as possible runners. Nicholls trained the winner & runner-up last year. Mathematically speaking it is not a 5/1 shot. Thoughts?

Thats value for sure. If it rains Unioniste wins..

Urindanger

Footpad gone back out to 11/8 on Betfair Sportsbook. I'll have more of that.

jimjamcos

I've just backed Up For Review EW for RSA 50/1 and National Hunt Chase 33/1, both NRNB.

He's coming back from a massive layoff, was a bit in and out as a novice and bombed on his only Cheltenham run but there's always been something about him that suggested to me that he could be a much better chaser.

On his last start as a novice he hammered Nambour, Barney Dwan and Fagan at Perth (the latter two are currenly much shorter than him for 4 Miler) so he clearly had talent. He also beat Mall Dini, Space Cadet and Acapella Bouegeois in that novice season.

While I'd much, MUCH rather back him at current festival prices above (he's also 66/1 for 4 Miler with Betfair W/O NRNB, which is worth a 5r ew) than back him tomorrow, the fact he's priced prohibitively enough on his comeback @ 5/1 in the 1.35 at Gowran against horses like Mall Dini shows he must be showing something.

This bet could very easily be a non runner by tomorrow afternoon but given the horse's latent talent, connections and the hope for improvement for chasing, he could also be massive value for Cheltenham races with the NRNB proviso. He falls perfectly into the type of NRNB I like anyway.

Win and he shortens significantly. Bomb and he'll be very unlikely to go.

While Monalee and Presenting Percy obviously look tough competition in RSA, could only really see him going there if going extremely well tomorrow while the 4 Miler looks as open as ever and as stated he already has form with plenty of them.

jimjamcos

jimjamcos wrote:

I've just backed Up For Review EW for RSA 50/1 and National Hunt Chase 33/1, both NRNB.

Getting hammered for todays race.

Fanny Wank

jimjamcos wrote: »

Getting hammered for todays race.

Decent shout for the 4 miler actually

jimjamcos

Fanny **** wrote:

Decent shout for the 4 miler actually

Yeah I've had another small EW bet at 66s with Betfair. Surely a sub 16/1 poke if winning today?

Slattsy

There's an awful lot of horses shorter in that 4 mile race that definitely will not be running.

A win today and he could go off sub 10s. Good shout and have backed accordingly.

Don't think he's any chance of being their RSA horse fwiw.

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote:

Don't think he's any chance of being their RSA horse fwiw.

That's what I thought originally too but when looking at his owners options - he's got Invitation Only, Up For Review and Bonbiel Miel as novice chasers - it's likely IO will go JLT with the other two split between RSA and 4 Miler.

We've seen unlikely switches with Wylie horses in past - Black Hercules went from 4 Miler fav to JLT winner a few years back! so anything is possible.

PM me nudes

Problem with it being 66/1 on Betfair

sdoc13

For fs. Minimum liability legislation is so badly needed.

Fanny Wank

PM me nudes wrote: »

Problem with it being 66/1 on Betfair

Got the exact same. 50c FFS

Was gonna chance a small bet at 66/1 ante post and back it NRNB too

One of the lads got the 25s NRNB for me anyhow (bloody joke as well - only wanted a flipping score on it)

So to summarise: I'm not in any way a big punter. Wanted to back a horse for Cheltenham today for the following

- 10 quid ante post @ 66/1
- 20 quid NRNB @ 25/1

And I can't actually do that in my own name. God grief, the bookmaking Industry is a complete joke

jimjamcos

Up For Review jumped well there but just not good enough in end. Only hope is that he improves for the run after long absence.

BumperD

Hit the cash out button!