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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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Rougies

I overlayed the latest spaghetti chart over the latest sat24 image as best I could (they're different projections so can't get it perfect).

Seems like it's still close to the forecast track, with a few models predicting a more northwards turn soon.

Kermit.de.frog

We are at the "nowcast" point now.

Reckless Abandonment

Looks to be turning more north to me. My money is on the east /South East getting the worst of this.

Rougies

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are at the "nowcast" point now.

Indeed, squeaky bum time.

DOCARCH

Missymoohaa wrote: »

So what are you saying.... We probably won't get hit by ophelia at all? You're really confusing me.

First off....just to say that I am no expert!

But, to me, I would have expected to see a quite distinct move/turn north today for Ophelia to directly hit Ireland. If I lived in the SE UK or NE France Ophelia's movements today would have caught my attention!

My name is URL

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

Is it terrible that I hope not?

Liffey4A

Docarch has a point though, it does seem to be tracking East towards France, is it due to move Northerly soon?

Gaoth Laidir

It looks to be moving NNE or about 020 ° to me, on track. It will pivot northwards as the upper trough catches hold of it.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL172017&starting_image=2017AL17_4KMIRIMG_201710151215.GIF

DOCARCH

My name is URL wrote: »

Is it terrible that I hope not?

I totally understand!

A bit like all the non-snow events over the last 6 years, my kids are now fully 'hurricane ready'!

Easterly Beasterly

What are the chance of Wicklow / Dublin being added to the Red Alert?

Larbre34

Met É have been consulting the NHC in Miami. The track is based on their well informed models and taking all influential nearby air masses into account. At -15 hrs I trust their forecast track at this point.

Gaoth Laidir

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

What are the chance of Wicklow / Dublin being added to the Red Alert?

I would say highly unlikely based on the slight downgrade in the 12Z HiRLAM.

DOCARCH

Liffey4A wrote: »

Docarch has a point though, it does seem to be tracking East towards France, is it due to move Northerly soon?

As above/earlier, my own theory is that as Ophelia managed to get (I think unexpectedly?) to Cat 3, the jet stream just did not 'take control'/subsume it early enough, to drag it more north, and Ophelia carried itself more east, than expected, under it's own momentum.

Liffey4A

When is next advisory?

DOCARCH

Larbre34 wrote: »

Met É have been consulting the NHC in Miami. The track is based on their well informed models and taking all influential nearby air masses into account. At -15 hrs I trust their forecast track at this point.

They (the NHC) didn't manage to get Irma's track (quite) right?

cherryghost

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I would say highly unlikely based on the slight downgrade in the 12Z HiRLAM.

HIRLAM has been all over the place the last 3 days. I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket.

Meteorite58

WRF -NMM 12Z rolling out atm (ever so slightly more W on this one )

Mean

Gusts

jirafa

http://www.gdacs.org/Cyclones/Stormsurge.aspx?eventtype=TC&eventid=1000410&episodeid=26

piuswal

Middle Man wrote: »

The warning isn't in operation yet, so AFAIK it doesn't appear on meteoalarm.eu as of now.

See the tomorrow tag at the bottom left.

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/1/0/IE003-Connacht.html

pad199207

Shes definitely making the turn now, look for possible strengthening

prunudo

Meteorite58 wrote: »

WRF -NMM 12Z rolling out atm (ever so slightly more W on this one )

Looking at those, especially the gusts I'm surprised more counties in Leinster aren't in the red alert zone

Meteorite58

The projected interaction with the with the Jet ( yesterdays chart but more or less the same for today )

gabeeg

DOCARCH wrote: »

They (the NHC) didn't manage to get Irma's track (quite) right?

The track towards us is much clearer here

https://en.sat24.com/en

firemansam4

DOCARCH wrote: »

As above/earlier, my own theory is that as Ophelia managed to get (I think unexpectedly?) to Cat 3, the jet stream just did not 'take control'/subsume it early enough, to drag it more north, and Ophelia carried itself more east, than expected, under it's own momentum.

From what I can see on the sat24 radar, the trajectory of the hurricane seems to be heading for Devon England, but I suppose it may curve Northwards more taking it towards us.

Xenji

They had Jeff Masters on the news a couple of minutes ago, albeit quite briefly.

JCX BXC

Dublin

Regular
BECMG 1607/1609 10015G25KT
BECMG 1610/1612 16025G40KT
BECMG 1612/1614 16035G50KT
BECMG 1616/1618 21030G45KT

Decoded
8am-10am 100 degrees 15kts gusting 25kts
11am-1pm 160 degrees 25kts gusting 40kts
1pm-3pm 160 degrees 35kts gusting 50kts
5pm-7pm 210 degrees 30kts gusting to 45kts

Shannon

Regular
BECMG 1605/1607 09025G35KT
BECMG 1609/1612 14035G55KT
BECMG 1612/1614 17040G60KT
BECMG 1614/1616 23030G45KT

Decoded
6am-8am wind 090 degrees 25kts gusting to 35kts
10am-1pm wind 140 degrees 35kts gusting 55kts
1pm-3pm wind 170 degrees 40kts gusting 60kts
3pm-5pm wind 230 degrees 30kts gusting 45kts

Cork

Regular
BECMG 1603/1606 07020G30KT
BECMG 1607/1609 17035G50KT
BECMG 1609/1611 17040G60KT
TEMPO 1611/1614 18048G70KT
BECMG 1614/1616 23035G50KT

Decoded
4am-7am wind 070 degrees 20kts gusting 30kts
8am-10am wind 170 degrees 35kts gusting 50kts
10am-12pm wind 170 degrees 40kts gusting 60kts
12pm-3pm wind temporarily 180 degrees 48kts gusting 70kts
3pm-5pm wind 230 degrees 35kts gusting to 50kts

Knock

Regular
BECMG 1603/1605 05018G30KT
BECMG 1608/1610 08025G40KT
BECMG 1610/1612 12025G40KT
BECMG 1612/1614 12035G50KT
BECMG 1614/1616 23030G45KT
BECMG 1616/1618 24025G35KT

Decoded
4am-6am wind 050 degrees 18kts gusting 30kts
9am-11am wind 080 degrees 25kts gusting 40kts
11am-1pm wind 120 degrees 25kts gusting 40kts
1pm-3pm wind 120 degrees 35kts gusting 50kts
3pm-5pm wind 230 degrees 30kts gusting 45kts
4pm-6pm wind 240 degrees 25kts gusting 35kts

*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*----*

Nothing spectacular at Knock, Shannon and Dublin, however I've never seen 70kts at Cork!

Meteorite58

jvan wrote: »

Meteorite58 wrote: »

WRF -NMM 12Z rolling out atm (ever so slightly more W on this one )

Looking at those, especially the gusts I'm surprised more counties in Leinster isnt in the red alert zone

I would have thought so too, but it must be a high end Orange rather then a Red I suppose atm , although on the chart below it is borderline if not Red ?

cyclops999

Wow red warning all counties possible in next couple of hours

Oscarziggy

The BBC shipping forecast says this for Fastnet --
I've never heard the term in red used before .
Regards

Fastnet
Gale Warning: Gale warning issued 15 October 09:55 UTC (Open)
Southerly hurricane force 12 expected later
Wind
Cyclonic, mainly south or southwest, 5 to 7, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 later, occasionally hurricane force 12.
Sea State
Moderate or rough, becoming high or very high later, occasionally phenomenal.
Weather
Fair then rain.
Visibility
Good becoming poor.

Itssoeasy

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919618766069272576