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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

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cherryghost

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I would say highly unlikely based on the slight downgrade in the 12Z HiRLAM.

HIRLAM has been all over the place the last 3 days. I wouldn't put all my eggs in that basket.

DOCARCH

Larbre34 wrote: »

Met É have been consulting the NHC in Miami. The track is based on their well informed models and taking all influential nearby air masses into account. At -15 hrs I trust their forecast track at this point.

They (the NHC) didn't manage to get Irma's track (quite) right?

Liffey4A

When is next advisory?

DOCARCH

Liffey4A wrote: »

Docarch has a point though, it does seem to be tracking East towards France, is it due to move Northerly soon?

As above/earlier, my own theory is that as Ophelia managed to get (I think unexpectedly?) to Cat 3, the jet stream just did not 'take control'/subsume it early enough, to drag it more north, and Ophelia carried itself more east, than expected, under it's own momentum.

Gaoth Laidir

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

What are the chance of Wicklow / Dublin being added to the Red Alert?

I would say highly unlikely based on the slight downgrade in the 12Z HiRLAM.

Larbre34

Met É have been consulting the NHC in Miami. The track is based on their well informed models and taking all influential nearby air masses into account. At -15 hrs I trust their forecast track at this point.

Easterly Beasterly

What are the chance of Wicklow / Dublin being added to the Red Alert?

DOCARCH

My name is URL wrote: »

Is it terrible that I hope not?

I totally understand!

A bit like all the non-snow events over the last 6 years, my kids are now fully 'hurricane ready'!

Gaoth Laidir

It looks to be moving NNE or about 020 ° to me, on track. It will pivot northwards as the upper trough catches hold of it.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL172017&starting_image=2017AL17_4KMIRIMG_201710151215.GIF

Liffey4A

Docarch has a point though, it does seem to be tracking East towards France, is it due to move Northerly soon?

My name is URL

DOCARCH wrote: »

Any chance this may give us a wide berth?

Have been checking in with https://en.sat24.com/en all day.

I am just not seeing any significant movement north/change of trajectory? Still appears to be moving (east) northeastwards? I think I'd be more worried if I lived in western France.

Is it terrible that I hope not?

DOCARCH

Missymoohaa wrote: »

So what are you saying.... We probably won't get hit by ophelia at all? You're really confusing me.

First off....just to say that I am no expert!

But, to me, I would have expected to see a quite distinct move/turn north today for Ophelia to directly hit Ireland. If I lived in the SE UK or NE France Ophelia's movements today would have caught my attention!

Rougies

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are at the "nowcast" point now.

Indeed, squeaky bum time.

Reckless Abandonment

Looks to be turning more north to me. My money is on the east /South East getting the worst of this.

Kermit.de.frog

We are at the "nowcast" point now.

Rougies

I overlayed the latest spaghetti chart over the latest sat24 image as best I could (they're different projections so can't get it perfect).

Seems like it's still close to the forecast track, with a few models predicting a more northwards turn soon.

[Deleted User]

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yes, it has (moved a fair bit), but it has had the same trajectory all day....with no major northward movement (as far as I can see?).

Giving a (very) rough guess, just going by still images, I'd say its tracked N/NE by about 150 miles between 10am and 4 pm.

Missymoohaa

DOCARCH wrote:

....other than looking at models (which are models)....nothing I have seen during the day has convinced me otherwise/that my own theory/hunch above is completely wrong!

So what are you saying.... We probably won't get hit by ophelia at all? You're really confusing me.

Discodog

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Aperge 12Z Looks like arriving a lot earlier ( unless DOCARACH has frightened it off :pac: )

Has it ? I seem to have always had the eye arriving near Galway late afternoon. I even thought about trying to get some outdoor work done in the morning

Reckless Abandonment

spookwoman wrote: »

is there an eye forming? latest sat images https://weather.us/satellite/131-w-426-n/satellite-hd-5min.html

No. She's starting to unwrap herself.

DOCARCH

Below is what I posted early this morning....

DOCARCH wrote: »

I suppose in the back of my head I am thinking of Irma....was supposed to head up the east coast of Florida and ended up the west coast of Florida at the last minute.

Ophelia is a Cat 3 'major' hurricane at the moment. I don't think it was forecast/expected to be that strong?

That, in my opinion, may effect the forecast track? The longer it remains a 'major' hurricane, the more the chance there is of it going wherever it pleases or resisting interaction with the jet stream.

As far as I am aware Ophelia was forecast to be weaker at this stage and the weaker hurricane was to be 'dragged' to Ireland by interaction with the jet stream.

Note: The above is not based on any science or forecast model! Just my own theory/hunch!

....other than looking at models (which are models)....nothing I have seen during the day has convinced me otherwise/that my own theory/hunch above is completely wrong!

spookwoman

is there an eye forming? latest sat images https://weather.us/satellite/131-w-426-n/satellite-hd-5min.html

Meteorite58

The full AROME 12Z out now

Gust

Discodog

giggsirish wrote: »

MeteoAlarm have decided that none of this exists.(Obviously I know it does) Where do they get their data from?

https://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

It reads like it's up to each country to tell them of any warnings

DOCARCH

Deleted User wrote: »

4pm image. Its moved a fair bit since early morning imagery.

Yes, it has (moved a fair bit), but it has had the same trajectory all day....with no major northward movement (as far as I can see?).

Meteorite58

Aperge 12Z Looks like arriving a lot earlier ( unless DOCARACH has frightened it off :pac: )

Mean

Gust

Middle Man

giggsirish wrote: »

MeteoAlarm have decided that none of this exists. Where do they get their data from?

https://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html

The warning isn't in operation yet, so AFAIK it doesn't appear on meteoalarm.eu as of now.

[Deleted User]

4pm image. Its moved a fair bit since early morning imagery.

DOCARCH

Discodog wrote: »

Seems to be just a straight line projection

Not a projection....

Have been watching that all day and there has been no significant northward turn.

giggsirish

MeteoAlarm have decided that none of this exists.(Obviously I know it does) Where do they get their data from?

https://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/IE-Ireland.html