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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON


    Mean

    tempresult_xfc4.gif

    Gusts

    tempresult_fsm8.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭fraxinus1


    Pangea wrote: »
    For us In Donegal, do you think it will anything out of the ordinary?

    No. A strong gale but nothing that we don't get several times a year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 357 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Has no one considered the Saharan dust! :)

    https://twitter.com/geogabout/status/919170465960259584


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭mel.b


    Just wondering what has caused this hurricane to travel east towards us, rather than west as they typically do? Is it due to where it first formed?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    WRF- NMM

    Gusts

    tempresult_ivr6.gif


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭gozunda


    ellieh1 wrote: »
    Just curious as to why Met Eireann has not included Limerick in the Red warning......seems strange when they have included Cork, Kerry, Galway etc..

    I agree. Looking at the latest estimated track - the storm looks like co Limerick will experience high wind speeds similar to that previously estimated for Clare / Kerry / Cork.

    The geography if the county doesn't help either with little or no protection from South westerly winds. The open esturary of the river Shannon running effectively north county Kerry all the way to Clare coupled with the relatively flat geophysical landscape in the West of the county.

    The east of the county also has a major mountain range which tends to exacerbate storm conditions and can increase local wind speeds. This area received serious damage during Storm Darwin.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    That hurricane looks very very well-developed for a Cat 2 on the latest images... If estimates put it at over 100kt wind speeds, that has to warrant Cat 3 classification (major hurricane)?


  • Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,100 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    Hamlet's Ophelia drowned herself, let's hope this Ophelia will meet its watery death before it reaches Ireland.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,771 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK




    The main rain on the western part of the storm. Ireland will be in the main area for the strongest winds.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,276 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    NHC's update at 4pm is going to be very interesting.

    They are the experts at hurricanes. Nearly wish they'd send over a Poseidon to Portugal to get the same level of analysis as they would for a westbound one...because that APERGE shows 190km/h gusts along the south coast.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 419 ✭✭channaigh


    RobertKK wrote: »


    The main rain on the western part of the storm. Ireland will be in the main area for the strongest winds.

    How will Kilkenny fair in this Robert ?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Wow !

    V2j35yS.jpg?1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Wow !

    V2j35yS.jpg?1

    Definitely Cat 3.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,425 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Jesus, this has to downgrade - still have to wait until tomorrow isn’t it, to be in reliable timeframe?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,528 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    With the Hurricane becoming stronger than expected perhaps the track will move west again as it aprroaches Ireland...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,009 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    I thought that this would be Sunday night into Monday but now seems to be Monday late afternoon. Based on the current estimates when would peak winds arrive in Galway ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,917 ✭✭✭✭iguana


    ellieh1 wrote: »
    Just curious as to why Met Eireann has not included Limerick in the Red warning......seems strange when they have included Cork, Kerry, Galway etc..

    Presumably because we don't have any direct coastal areas? I'm sure parts of Limerick will fare identically or worse to parts of counties with red alerts (I live about 700 meters from the Clare border and high up hill of it so will probably be hit as hard if not harder than the parts of Clare near me). But the more coastal regions of those counties are possibly at risk of worse damage.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,508 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    Anyone who suggests this will just be another windy day are in for a shock. This is looking like a once in a lifetime event. Its a stronger storm than Debbie in 1961.Be ready and prepared and hopefully it wont be as bad as its looking now.

    I have a live Youtube stream set up for the event here in Waterford City. You can also check live data on my website www.waterfordweather.com



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,650 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Definitely Cat 3.

    Looks Close.

    Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
    Category Sustained Winds
    1 74-95 mph 64-82 kt 119-153 km/h
    2 96-110 mph 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h
    3 (major) 111-129 mph 96-112 kt 178-208 km/h
    4 (major) 130-156 mph 113-136 kt 209-251 km/h

    https://twitter.com/splillo/status/919194553562775552

    RqrAkvK.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Concerned that Red has only been issued for 4 counties in the SW/W (of course likely 11am Monday).
    the 'MaxGust' on two models show the SE&E (population dense) getting a fair whack from the Lady round about 4pm Monday.

    Screen_Shot_2017-10-14_at_14.46.57.png

    Dare even say it could more of an Irish Sea storm than an Atlantic Coast?

    The UKMO have just a 'yellow' wind warning for Monday (Wales/NI/Scot), will it be another 'Fish' forecast?
    Either the models are (both) wrong, or the forecasters...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 89 ✭✭luimneachboy


    For those that have a good knowledge, at the moment what's this looking like for West limerick /north kerry


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 357 ✭✭Strangegravy




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,572 ✭✭✭Colser


    I'm starting to feel nervous about this,I've already told the kids that they're not going to school and they think I'm losing it but I'm really getting a bad feeling about it...hopefully it won't be as bad as its looking at the moment.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 655 ✭✭✭Monkeynut


    Anyone who suggests this will just be another windy day are in for a shock. This is looking like a once in a lifetime event. Its a stronger storm than Debbie in 1961.Be ready and prepared and hopefully it wont be as bad as its looking now.

    I have a live Youtube stream set up for the event here in Waterford City. You can also check live data on my website www.waterfordweather.com


    i wonder how the bunting flags will do.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Just watching the repeat of the lunchtime weather, you'd hardly guess the windapocalypse was on the way


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 333 ✭✭ascophyllum


    WRF- NMM

    Gusts

    This shows a very different scenario to Met's red warning, Mayo and Galway not so affected at all in this model


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,228 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    For anyone not aware of the excellent live wind map, here's the link for that

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-30.28,41.46,649

    Chomsky(2017) on the Republican party

    "Has there ever been an organisation in human history that is dedicated, with such commitment, to the destruction of organised human life on Earth?"



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,009 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    Anyone who suggests this will just be another windy day are in for a shock. This is looking like a once in a lifetime event. Its a stronger storm than Debbie in 1961.Be ready and prepared and hopefully it wont be as bad as its looking now.

    I have a live Youtube stream set up for the event here in Waterford City. You can also check live data on my website www.waterfordweather.com


    Might be hard to judge the windspeed as the trees are in the distance. Maybe put some wheelie bins of different weight :)


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