nav[aria-label="Primary Navigation"] { padding: 0; & ul { list-style: none; width: 100%; display: flex; flex-direction: row; justify-content: start; align-items: start; gap: 30px; padding: 0; & li { margin: 0; } & ul li { list-style: none; } } }

Child Item

Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

M.T. Cranium

Mod note

This is a busy thread and as a result the Mod Team will be taking a zero Tolerance approach to trolling and flaming

Don’t say you weren’t warned!!

And please don’t feed
Thanks

Just briefly for now, recent model runs (12z Wed 11th) have shown a track near Ireland for strong extratropical low (Ophelia) with timing converging on Monday 16th during the daytime hours.

The GFS model was of some concern but the ECM now has a very high impact low depicted at 965 mbs just about 70 miles southwest of Valentia by mid-day Monday.

This would evidently track through Ireland and Scotland on a generally NNE to NE path, which would bring damaging wind gusts into most of Ireland.

Too early to get very specific about impacts or peak wind speeds but these maps got my interest and look as intense as storm "Darwin" in 2014.

I wanted to get a dedicated thread into existence so that we can focus on this storm rather than using the tropical seasonal thread. Also, please note, obviously if this verifies a level 3 warning would be justified and at some point we will consider upgrading the current level 1 which is appropriate mainly because of the uncertain outcome, but an event of at least level 1 status seems almost locked in given the model consensus.

The GEM model is currently an outlier, like the rest of the pack it shifted east but that took its earlier eastern Ireland windstorm into Britain instead. It would be unusual for the GEM to beat out all these other models at five days so I don't give that much weight. However, it needs to be mentioned that this storm is currently a long way away (southwest of Azores) and relatively small for a hurricane, which it is about to become later today (last advisory had it as a high end tropical storm).

We shall see how the models respond to developments. The track towards Ireland makes sense when you consider how warm it is likely to be on the weekend and the position of the long-wave trough slowly moving east from the central Atlantic.

This could be a high impact windstorm for Ireland and the forum will be buzzing from now until the event comes into clear focus, after which it may be hyperactive, so post wisely with useful info as it comes along.

Mods, I will get in touch if I feel that a higher level or title change is needed. Get ready for a very busy few days.

Find more posts tagged with

Quick Links

Comments

Meteorite58

ICON

Mean

Gusts

fraxinus1

Pangea wrote: »

For us In Donegal, do you think it will anything out of the ordinary?

No. A strong gale but nothing that we don't get several times a year.

Strangegravy

Has no one considered the Saharan dust!

https://twitter.com/geogabout/status/919170465960259584

mel.b

Just wondering what has caused this hurricane to travel east towards us, rather than west as they typically do? Is it due to where it first formed?

Meteorite58

WRF- NMM

Gusts

gozunda

ellieh1 wrote: »

Just curious as to why Met Eireann has not included Limerick in the Red warning......seems strange when they have included Cork, Kerry, Galway etc..

I agree. Looking at the latest estimated track - the storm looks like co Limerick will experience high wind speeds similar to that previously estimated for Clare / Kerry / Cork.

The geography if the county doesn't help either with little or no protection from South westerly winds. The open esturary of the river Shannon running effectively north county Kerry all the way to Clare coupled with the relatively flat geophysical landscape in the West of the county.

The east of the county also has a major mountain range which tends to exacerbate storm conditions and can increase local wind speeds. This area received serious damage during Storm Darwin.

lucernarian

That hurricane looks very very well-developed for a Cat 2 on the latest images... If estimates put it at over 100kt wind speeds, that has to warrant Cat 3 classification (major hurricane)?

New Home

Hamlet's Ophelia drowned herself, let's hope this Ophelia will meet its watery death before it reaches Ireland.

RobertKK

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/919180353398599680

The main rain on the western part of the storm. Ireland will be in the main area for the strongest winds.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/919194553562775552

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/919186923767377920

https://twitter.com/StormhunterNL/status/919180726171590656

sdanseo

NHC's update at 4pm is going to be very interesting.

They are the experts at hurricanes. Nearly wish they'd send over a Poseidon to Portugal to get the same level of analysis as they would for a westbound one...because that APERGE shows 190km/h gusts along the south coast.

channaigh

RobertKK wrote: »

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/919180353398599680

The main rain on the western part of the storm. Ireland will be in the main area for the strongest winds.

How will Kilkenny fair in this Robert ?

Meteorite58

Wow !

Kermit.de.frog

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Wow !

Definitely Cat 3.

uck51js9zml2yt

Meteorite58 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/919194553562775552

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/919186923767377920

https://twitter.com/StormhunterNL/status/919180726171590656

I wish I knew what that post meant!!

leahyl

Jesus, this has to downgrade - still have to wait until tomorrow isn’t it, to be in reliable timeframe?

Hooter23

With the Hurricane becoming stronger than expected perhaps the track will move west again as it aprroaches Ireland...

Discodog

I thought that this would be Sunday night into Monday but now seems to be Monday late afternoon. Based on the current estimates when would peak winds arrive in Galway ?

iguana

ellieh1 wrote: »

Just curious as to why Met Eireann has not included Limerick in the Red warning......seems strange when they have included Cork, Kerry, Galway etc..

Presumably because we don't have any direct coastal areas? I'm sure parts of Limerick will fare identically or worse to parts of counties with red alerts (I live about 700 meters from the Clare border and high up hill of it so will probably be hit as hard if not harder than the parts of Clare near me). But the more coastal regions of those counties are possibly at risk of worse damage.

mickger844posts

Anyone who suggests this will just be another windy day are in for a shock. This is looking like a once in a lifetime event. Its a stronger storm than Debbie in 1961.Be ready and prepared and hopefully it wont be as bad as its looking now.

I have a live Youtube stream set up for the event here in Waterford City. You can also check live data on my website www.waterfordweather.com

Meteorite58

Definitely Cat 3.

Looks Close.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Category Sustained Winds
1 74-95 mph 64-82 kt 119-153 km/h
2 96-110 mph 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h
3 (major) 111-129 mph 96-112 kt 178-208 km/h
4 (major) 130-156 mph 113-136 kt 209-251 km/h

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/919194553562775552

4068ac1elhodqr

Concerned that Red has only been issued for 4 counties in the SW/W (of course likely 11am Monday).
the 'MaxGust' on two models show the SE&E (population dense) getting a fair whack from the Lady round about 4pm Monday.

Screen_Shot_2017-10-14_at_14.46.57.png

Dare even say it could more of an Irish Sea storm than an Atlantic Coast?

The UKMO have just a 'yellow' wind warning for Monday (Wales/NI/Scot), will it be another 'Fish' forecast?
Either the models are (both) wrong, or the forecasters...

luimneachboy

For those that have a good knowledge, at the moment what's this looking like for West limerick /north kerry

Strangegravy

This is a bit surreal really...

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/919186027465515009

Colser

I'm starting to feel nervous about this,I've already told the kids that they're not going to school and they think I'm losing it but I'm really getting a bad feeling about it...hopefully it won't be as bad as its looking at the moment.

Monkeynut

mickger844posts wrote: »

Anyone who suggests this will just be another windy day are in for a shock. This is looking like a once in a lifetime event. Its a stronger storm than Debbie in 1961.Be ready and prepared and hopefully it wont be as bad as its looking now.

I have a live Youtube stream set up for the event here in Waterford City. You can also check live data on my website www.waterfordweather.com

i wonder how the bunting flags will do.

Harry Palmr

Just watching the repeat of the lunchtime weather, you'd hardly guess the windapocalypse was on the way

ascophyllum

Meteorite58 wrote: »

WRF- NMM

Gusts

This shows a very different scenario to Met's red warning, Mayo and Galway not so affected at all in this model

Akrasia

For anyone not aware of the excellent live wind map, here's the link for that

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-30.28,41.46,649

Discodog

mickger844posts wrote: »

Anyone who suggests this will just be another windy day are in for a shock. This is looking like a once in a lifetime event. Its a stronger storm than Debbie in 1961.Be ready and prepared and hopefully it wont be as bad as its looking now.

I have a live Youtube stream set up for the event here in Waterford City. You can also check live data on my website www.waterfordweather.com

Might be hard to judge the windspeed as the trees are in the distance. Maybe put some wheelie bins of different weight