Major Hurricane Irma

Gaoth Laidir

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...17.6N 49.8W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of this area on Monday.

RobbingBandit

What's the projected landfall area on US and what will the potential category be?

Gaoth Laidir

Latest model tracks...

Gaoth Laidir

RobbingBandit wrote: »

What's the projected landfall area on US and what will the potential category be?

Currently the ECMWF, which has been consistenly been the best performer on this storm so far, with the most southern track, has it devastating the whole line of the Bahamas, coming close to the east of Florida and along the eastern seabord but curving out to sea without landfall.

Gaoth Laidir

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocnoepCHK1I

Meteorite58

NHC

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/904459066931601408


Recent recon pass into Irma found a pressure near 958mb, estimated surface winds of 113mph in the NE eyewall.


https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

GEFS spaghetti models, anyone's guess where this ends up.




https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904470166590894080

traco

Been following this one, from what I have read the most likely track appears to be up the east coast of FL making landfall in Carolinas but still too far out to be sure.

The more Northern track taking it further east seems to be more unlikely based on analysis I have read but I don't understand half the techy stuff.

I just hope it doesn't make landfall at all and ends up in the N Atlantic somewhere. Another big hit on the US would really hurt the emergency crews over there.

star gazer

The forecast track has moved westwards again making it more likely to have a greater impact on places like the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba as well as Puerto Rico. Parts of the Bahamas on the North Eastern side of Hurricane Irma forecast track would see major impacts.
NHC advisory 20

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

Potential landfall Wednesday.

Max sustained winds 185km/h with strengthening expected over the next few days. Minimum Central Pressure 961mb moving WSW at 22km/h

NHC discussion 20

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.
In addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute
miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Oneiric 3

Latest sequence from NOAA:



Tish' a beasht of a yoke.

Rikand

The auld Nullschool is always good for these sort of things .

Irma and likely TS Jose in this shot





https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-47.45,8.02,427

traco

Good site to keep an eye on - very simple graphics but tracks all tropical storms globally

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Meteorite58

A lot of talk now of Irma showing signs of growing to a Cat 4 within 12 hrs and possibly Cat 5 thereafter as it moves over warmer waters. An East coast trough steering it more W on recent runs. Looks to pass close if not over a lot of Islands on route .Window seems to be narrowing, not definite by no means but warnings going out for people to be ready from Miami and up along Florida . Will it turn as it nears Miami and skirt up along the coast to the Carolina's I wonder ?

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904747133210898436

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904745329920278530

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/904737096094666753

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904742365650444293

https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status/904722262309396480

Donegal Storm

Looks increasingly worrying with every run, seems like its going to smash right into the eastern Caribbean islands before skirting right along Puerto Rico, Dominica and Haiti and into the Bahamas. Big populations and lots of small vulnerable islands along that path

traco

I'm getting a bit worried here lads and its a selfish interest.

I've a place on the Gulf Side and not liking the looks of it. Was over there on hols and only back 3 weeks. Didn't put up the hurricane shutters and and regretting it now. Really wish that ridge and low would settle down so that the track can firm up a bit.

If it stays North of Cuba there is a good chance it will curve North and that will put the Gulf coast right into the North Right Hand quadrant which is the most dangerous. Tornado risk will be high and after that passes the bottom left will bring the storm surge.

Really want this to turn north soon or else dip south, further out into the gulf and take a wider arc back into Northern Florida.

traco

Just logged onto US weather channel thru VPN at the house and Euro model has it off shore west of Miami on Sunday, US model has it just on land south of Miami. Sometimes they can be very different but they appear to agree this time.

Some tracks still keeping it south. They have sent up more balloons to try and figure out how far south the jet stream is dipping and what impact it will have in pulling Irma north. Expected to be a Cat 4 tomorrow and currently carrying huge amounts of water vapour. Current sea temps are low 80's and will move into upper 80's water in the next day or two.

star gazer

Minimum central presssure down to 944mb, a significant 17mb drop in 9 hours. There are still a couple of days on open water with conducive conditions for further strengthening. Max sustained wind speed 195mk/h moving at 22km/h, WSW at present. Forecast to stay a Major Hurricane for the next five days at least, with potential landfall on the Northern Coast of Cuba. At this time distance, landfall somewhere on the Continental US from Florida to North Carolina is what's being looked at.

There are also two potentials, one potential tropical storm roughly in the same geographical position as Irma is in now, in 4 days time. The other in the South Western Gulf of Mexico not moving far.

Gaoth Laidir

It's now over increasing ocean heat content, with 50 kJ/cm² deemed the minimum for rapid intensification.



Tempering this intensification, however, is the shear, which is forecast to increase, depending on the model. Mid-level relative humidity stays favourable.



The exact interaction with the islands, especially Hispaniola and Cuba, will determine its effect on the US. A few miles north or south will greatly decrease or increase its weakening through Cuba, but further south could see it emerge more west and enter the Gulf, where it would most likely miss the train to the northeast. Who knows what would happen then...

dfx-

The NHC warning has the cone of uncertainty covering the southern tip of Florida for the first time. The central position lying out to sea to the south and all the recent warnings have sent it incrementally further southwards/westwards - surely it'll not skirt up the east coast?

JanuarySnowstor

Confirmed a Cat 4

traco

9pm UTC or 5pm AST National Hurricane Center update. Still expecting a swing north.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 54.4 West. Irma is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue into Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwestward late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward
Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph
(215 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 944 mb (27.88 inches).

Meteorite58

Water in the Bahamas and between Florida and Cuba very warm up to 31C, deemed strong enough for a Cat 5

Latest pass through : 943mb and 130 kt winds / 240 km/h, closed eyewall 47 km



Ryan Maue



https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904810006410911745

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/904811070409330689

Meteorite58

Irma has company with two areas of disturbance given a 40% chance of Cyclone development in 48 hrs, things getting very busy at the NHC now I'd say.

Meteorite58

Irma Wind Analysis / GOES 16

Kermit.de.frog

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtNyuWKHXqA

Be interesting to see the late twists and turns. Can't rule out this going in to the Gulf.

BumperD

A direct hit on south Florida looks a distict possibility. Thankfully it's a tightly wrapped hurricane and if fast moving, that will lessen the impact to some degree but there would be catastrophic damage for areas suffering a direct hit.

BumperD

I'm due to fly into Miami Saturday morning which is Murphy's law. I've already got other flights on standby so i can re-route around it but disruption is inevitable:(

BumperD

Latest shows the storm has grown, with storm force winds now 140 miles from center which is double what they were only 48hrs ago. This makes the potential impacts even more extensive, no longer a tightly wrapped Hurricane.

Hal1

Expected to become a cat5. Short movie of the rotation:https://i.imgur.com/ue2Tmzu.mp4

BumperD

Florida declared a state of emergency this evening.

traco

BumperD wrote: »

Florida declared a state of emergency this evening.

Lovely!!

traco

NHC Advisory 24 just issued, still calling for a WNW turn. Plane in the eye in the next hour for more data, Forecast to remain a strong Cat 4 at the moment

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the core of Irma
will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane is scheduled to be in the eye of Irma within the hour.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day
or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches)

star gazer

Up to 240km/h, 150mph wind, 937mb min pressure, moving west at 22km/h. It's due to stay around this Cat 4 strength for the coming days, though it's not that far from a Cat five so that stregnth is still possible.
Distinct eye wall.


At least with the extra warning, Florida will have time to prepare for what looks like landfall, at this point, somewhere along it's coast.

harr

Hi
I know nobody knows for absolute certain which track this might take and this might sound selfish but traveling to the New York early next week for a family function, would it be a possibility this could track that far north?
Need to have alternative travel plans if it's even a possibility...
Thanks

traco

harr wrote: »

Hi
I know nobody knows for absolute certain which track this might take and this might sound selfish but traveling to the New York early next week for a family function, would it be a possibility this could track that far north?
Need to have alternative travel plans if it's even a possibility...
Thanks

How long will you be in NY for, tracks have it around FL on Sunday.

If it veers north towards NY I think it could be another week before it would arrive in NY even it makes it there. More likely a Northerly shift would take it to the Carolina's but its really anybodys guess at this stage.

harr

traco wrote: »

How long will you be in NY for, tracks have it around FL on Sunday.

If it veers north towards NY I think it could be another week before it would arrive in NY even it makes it there. More likely a Northerly shift would take it to the Carolina's but its really anybodys guess at this stage.

Will be staying a week flying on Monday not to worried about being delayed getting home as I can stay with friends/ relatives if needed.
Most important is getting over

traco

Just recorded from the US weather channel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-QLyQ7djfw

Will grab the next broadcast as that doesn't have sound, just on now that they have a surface wind of 175mph. Waiting official confirmation

Iancar29

NHC has issued a special advisory regarding extremely dangerous Hurricane Irma. Reports from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate Irma continues to strengthen and maximum sustained winds have increased to near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts - an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).
Irma is centered as of 8 a.m. AST/EDT about 270 miles (440 km) east of Antigua, moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten, Saint Martin, Saint Barthelemy, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Guadeloupe, Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Guadeloupe and Dominica. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engao to Isla Saona.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. For more information, including Irma's impacts of storm surge, wind and rain, go directly to the NHC website -
The next complete advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 a.m. AST/EDT - www.hurricanes.gov





I hope the antilles are braced

EDIT :Live Webcam link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJDDxaq_C5M&feature=youtu.be

traco

Sorry about the lack of sound. Weather channel has excellent graphics and analysis. Think I know what's up with the sound so will try and capture the update at 4pm Irish time.

I'm already getting texts from Florida from people planning to leave and others that live on the water asking if they can go ride it out at my place as it's a few miles inland.

I've been there for one before that hit Sanibel / Captiva and tore the island in half, also seen several tropical storms roll through but this one is really worrying me. Not a lot I can do from here though.

ronnie3585

Very little shear and warmer water lies ahead of Irma as she trundles along in this westerly track. It's going to be a whopper!

Gaoth Laidir

I just hope the larger islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola can break up the structure somewhat and limit its development. But before that happens a whole lot of small islands look really in for it, especially those just on or just north of the centre's track. It looks like nearly every one of the Bahamas will get hit. Hopefully we will see another ERC take place before it hits the first islands, though there's not much difference between 120 and 140-knot winds...

Oneiric 3

Latest WV sequence (note: fairly large gif size so may take a while to load + 2 hour slot missing from last night)

ronnie3585

https://twitter.com/tjdelsanto/status/904895672591290369?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Ftjdelsanto%2Fstatus%2F904895672591290369

ronnie3585

NOAA's latest hurricane models latest run - pressure down to 850mb in 4 days:eek:

Storm 10

If you click on the link below there are live stream webcams from the Bahamas and other Islands, you could follow the storm that way if they don't go down. Click the drop down on the top left for different ports. They also give info on the approach of Irma on the right, I see some are already evacuating holidaymakers like St Maarten and the Airport there will shut at 2pm local today. They guys at the hotel in St Maarten can be seen filling sandbags and taking them to the hotel.

http://www.portnassauwebcam.com/

Airport Webcam

http://www.mahobeachcam.com/

Simon Gruber Says

Max sustained winds up to 180mph now.

Also, we now have TS Jose following behind.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

traco

11am US / 4pm GMT Update from weather channel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doNsIjFRN6k

star gazer

Still moving West at 22km/h, pressure down to 931mb, winds 285km/h, Hurricane winds up to 95km (NE) from the centre, tropical storm force winds up to 260km from the centre.
Up to 3.25m storm surge for Brittish and US Virgin islands (except St. Croix).

There wouldn't be many trees still standing getting hit by the worst of the winds Hurricane Irma is registering, with many houses severly damaged or completely destroyed. There's a lot of danger in Irma for the islands along or near its projected path with the forecast still putting Irma (as a major Hurricane) on course for Florida in five or so days time.

It's been a very busy time for the Forecasters after the importance of knowing everything possible of Harvey, Irma and with now Tropical Storm Jose (forecast Hurricane - North into the open Atlantic hopefully) to look at as well as a potential in the South Western Gulf of Mexico. They do a very important job and deserve a lot of respect for giving people warning of impending threats.

Fishytea

Don't forget to have a look at snapmaps as well for people updating their public stories!

Rougies

Oneiric 3

Live cam from Patillas in Puerto Rico. Looks very benign at the moment. Could change dramatically if the storm track stays to the south of primary forecast area.

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/puerto-rico/patillas/guardarraya/puerto-rico-patillas.html

traco

Ryan Maue (follow on twitter) anticipating pressure may drop to 909mb based on HWRF 12z. Wind speeds could hit 230mph if that happens.