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Major Hurricane Irma

  • 03-09-2017 9:56pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 8,192 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    LOCATION...17.6N 49.8W
    ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.

    The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

    The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
    * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
    * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

    Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of this area on Monday.

    2017AL11_HWRFPREC_201709031200_F000.PNG

    2017AL11_HWRFWIND_201709031200_F000.PNG
    Tagged:


«13456744

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 17,470 ✭✭✭✭ RobbingBandit


    What's the projected landfall area on US and what will the potential category be?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,192 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    Latest model tracks...

    2017AL11_DIAGPLOT_201709031800.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,192 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    What's the projected landfall area on US and what will the potential category be?

    Currently the ECMWF, which has been consistenly been the best performer on this storm so far, with the most southern track, has it devastating the whole line of the Bahamas, coming close to the east of Florida and along the eastern seabord but curving out to sea without landfall.

    427004.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,192 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    NHC

    https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/904459066931601408


    Recent recon pass into Irma found a pressure near 958mb, estimated surface winds of 113mph in the NE eyewall.


    https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

    GEFS spaghetti models, anyone's guess where this ends up.

    61boLv5.png?1


    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904470166590894080


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭ traco


    Been following this one, from what I have read the most likely track appears to be up the east coast of FL making landfall in Carolinas but still too far out to be sure.

    The more Northern track taking it further east seems to be more unlikely based on analysis I have read but I don't understand half the techy stuff.

    I just hope it doesn't make landfall at all and ends up in the N Atlantic somewhere. Another big hit on the US would really hurt the emergency crews over there.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    The forecast track has moved westwards again making it more likely to have a greater impact on places like the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba as well as Puerto Rico. Parts of the Bahamas on the North Eastern side of Hurricane Irma forecast track would see major impacts.
    NHC advisory 20
    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
    * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
    * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
    Potential landfall Wednesday.

    Max sustained winds 185km/h with strengthening expected over the next few days. Minimum Central Pressure 961mb moving WSW at 22km/h
    090051_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
    NHC discussion 20
    Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since
    strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.
    In addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute
    miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,030 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    Latest sequence from NOAA:

    image.gif

    Tish' a beasht of a yoke.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    The auld Nullschool is always good for these sort of things :) .

    Irma and likely TS Jose in this shot :)

    eY0dGv



    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-47.45,8.02,427

    Irma_And_Maybe_Jose.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭ traco


    Good site to keep an eye on - very simple graphics but tracks all tropical storms globally

    http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    A lot of talk now of Irma showing signs of growing to a Cat 4 within 12 hrs and possibly Cat 5 thereafter as it moves over warmer waters. An East coast trough steering it more W on recent runs. Looks to pass close if not over a lot of Islands on route .Window seems to be narrowing, not definite by no means but warnings going out for people to be ready from Miami and up along Florida . Will it turn as it nears Miami and skirt up along the coast to the Carolina's I wonder ?

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904747133210898436

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904745329920278530

    https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/904737096094666753

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904742365650444293

    https://twitter.com/convectivewx/status/904722262309396480


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    Looks increasingly worrying with every run, seems like its going to smash right into the eastern Caribbean islands before skirting right along Puerto Rico, Dominica and Haiti and into the Bahamas. Big populations and lots of small vulnerable islands along that path


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭ traco


    I'm getting a bit worried here lads and its a selfish interest.

    I've a place on the Gulf Side and not liking the looks of it. Was over there on hols and only back 3 weeks. Didn't put up the hurricane shutters and and regretting it now. Really wish that ridge and low would settle down so that the track can firm up a bit.

    If it stays North of Cuba there is a good chance it will curve North and that will put the Gulf coast right into the North Right Hand quadrant which is the most dangerous. Tornado risk will be high and after that passes the bottom left will bring the storm surge.

    Really want this to turn north soon or else dip south, further out into the gulf and take a wider arc back into Northern Florida.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭ traco


    Just logged onto US weather channel thru VPN at the house and Euro model has it off shore west of Miami on Sunday, US model has it just on land south of Miami. Sometimes they can be very different but they appear to agree this time.

    Some tracks still keeping it south. They have sent up more balloons to try and figure out how far south the jet stream is dipping and what impact it will have in pulling Irma north. Expected to be a Cat 4 tomorrow and currently carrying huge amounts of water vapour. Current sea temps are low 80's and will move into upper 80's water in the next day or two.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,697 Mod ✭✭✭✭ star gazer


    Minimum central presssure down to 944mb, a significant 17mb drop in 9 hours. There are still a couple of days on open water with conducive conditions for further strengthening. Max sustained wind speed 195mk/h moving at 22km/h, WSW at present. Forecast to stay a Major Hurricane for the next five days at least, with potential landfall on the Northern Coast of Cuba. At this time distance, landfall somewhere on the Continental US from Florida to North Carolina is what's being looked at.

    There are also two potentials, one potential tropical storm roughly in the same geographical position as Irma is in now, in 4 days time. The other in the South Western Gulf of Mexico not moving far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,192 ✭✭✭ Gaoth Laidir


    It's now over increasing ocean heat content, with 50 kJ/cm² deemed the minimum for rapid intensification.

    2017AL11_OHCNFCST_201709041200.GIF

    Tempering this intensification, however, is the shear, which is forecast to increase, depending on the model. Mid-level relative humidity stays favourable.

    2017AL11_DIAGPLOT_201709041800.png

    The exact interaction with the islands, especially Hispaniola and Cuba, will determine its effect on the US. A few miles north or south will greatly decrease or increase its weakening through Cuba, but further south could see it emerge more west and enter the Gulf, where it would most likely miss the train to the northeast. Who knows what would happen then...


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 15,537 Mod ✭✭✭✭ dfx-


    The NHC warning has the cone of uncertainty covering the southern tip of Florida for the first time. The central position lying out to sea to the south and all the recent warnings have sent it incrementally further southwards/westwards - surely it'll not skirt up the east coast?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Confirmed a Cat 4


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭ traco


    9pm UTC or 5pm AST National Hurricane Center update. Still expecting a swing north.

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
    near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 54.4 West. Irma is moving
    toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is
    expected to continue into Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the
    west-northwestward late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
    of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward
    Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

    Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
    that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph
    (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
    Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
    forecast during the next 48 hours.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
    (220 km).

    The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
    aircraft is 944 mb (27.88 inches).


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Water in the Bahamas and between Florida and Cuba very warm up to 31C, deemed strong enough for a Cat 5

    Latest pass through : 943mb and 130 kt winds / 240 km/h, closed eyewall 47 km



    Ryan Maue

    75XbCyr.png?1

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904810006410911745

    https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/904811070409330689


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Irma has company with two areas of disturbance given a 40% chance of Cyclone development in 48 hrs, things getting very busy at the NHC now I'd say.

    vSoSLwF.png


    rhbeRUh.jpg?1

    8cM24eZ.gif?1


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Irma Wind Analysis / GOES 16


    qFxtj6U.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog





    Be interesting to see the late twists and turns. Can't rule out this going in to the Gulf.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    A direct hit on south Florida looks a distict possibility. Thankfully it's a tightly wrapped hurricane and if fast moving, that will lessen the impact to some degree but there would be catastrophic damage for areas suffering a direct hit.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    I'm due to fly into Miami Saturday morning which is Murphy's law. I've already got other flights on standby so i can re-route around it but disruption is inevitable:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    Latest shows the storm has grown, with storm force winds now 140 miles from center which is double what they were only 48hrs ago. This makes the potential impacts even more extensive, no longer a tightly wrapped Hurricane.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,720 ✭✭✭ Hal1


    Expected to become a cat5. Short movie of the rotation:https://i.imgur.com/ue2Tmzu.mp4


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,680 ✭✭✭ BumperD


    Florida declared a state of emergency this evening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭ traco


    BumperD wrote: »
    Florida declared a state of emergency this evening.

    Lovely!!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,283 ✭✭✭ traco


    NHC Advisory 24 just issued, still calling for a WNW turn. Plane in the eye in the next hour for more data, Forecast to remain a strong Cat 4 at the moment

    DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
    At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
    located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Irma is
    moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
    motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
    west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the core of Irma
    will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
    tonight and early Wednesday.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
    Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
    plane is scheduled to be in the eye of Irma within the hour.

    Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day
    or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4
    hurricane.

    Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
    center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
    (220 km).

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches)


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