Major Hurricane Irma

Been following this one, from what I have read the most likely track appears to be up the east coast of FL making landfall in Carolinas but still too far out to be sure.

The more Northern track taking it further east seems to be more unlikely based on analysis I have read but I don't understand half the techy stuff.

I just hope it doesn't make landfall at all and ends up in the N Atlantic somewhere. Another big hit on the US would really hurt the emergency crews over there.

Latest sequence from NOAA:



Tish' a beasht of a yoke.

Good site to keep an eye on - very simple graphics but tracks all tropical storms globally

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

Looks increasingly worrying with every run, seems like its going to smash right into the eastern Caribbean islands before skirting right along Puerto Rico, Dominica and Haiti and into the Bahamas. Big populations and lots of small vulnerable islands along that path

Just logged onto US weather channel thru VPN at the house and Euro model has it off shore west of Miami on Sunday, US model has it just on land south of Miami. Sometimes they can be very different but they appear to agree this time.

Some tracks still keeping it south. They have sent up more balloons to try and figure out how far south the jet stream is dipping and what impact it will have in pulling Irma north. Expected to be a Cat 4 tomorrow and currently carrying huge amounts of water vapour. Current sea temps are low 80's and will move into upper 80's water in the next day or two.

Confirmed a Cat 4

A direct hit on south Florida looks a distict possibility. Thankfully it's a tightly wrapped hurricane and if fast moving, that will lessen the impact to some degree but there would be catastrophic damage for areas suffering a direct hit.

Latest shows the storm has grown, with storm force winds now 140 miles from center which is double what they were only 48hrs ago. This makes the potential impacts even more extensive, no longer a tightly wrapped Hurricane.

Florida declared a state of emergency this evening.

NHC Advisory 24 just issued, still calling for a WNW turn. Plane in the eye in the next hour for more data, Forecast to remain a strong Cat 4 at the moment

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the core of Irma
will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane is scheduled to be in the eye of Irma within the hour.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day
or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches)