FPL price changes 2017/18.

Cookie_Dough

danganabu wrote: »

The Salah drop is incredibly knee-jerky, scored again mid week and looked very sharp.

At least he only dropped from 9.1m to 9 so you wouldn't lose anything.

wonski wrote: »

Could be dropped again.

I think if he is dropped I may considering selling him before his price drops again in order to get a guaranteed starter. 9mill is a lot to have tied up in a player who may be rotated/rested from week to week.

I would have though Klopp should be playing his strongest side every game at this stage as there is no fixture congestion and the football season has only started so surely tiredness isn't an issue until it's a fitness issue.

Benimar

wonski wrote: »

Could be dropped again.

Salah will play Sunday. He got his 'rest' last week.

Liverpool will be at full strength v Arsenal.

Benimar

Cookie_Dough wrote: »

At least he only dropped from 9.1m to 9 so you wouldn't lose anything.



I think if he is dropped I may considering selling him before his price drops again in order to get a guaranteed starter. 9mill is a lot to have tied up in a player who may be rotated/rested from week to week.

I would have though Klopp should be playing his strongest side every game at this stage as there is no fixture congestion and the football season has only started so surely tiredness isn't an issue until it's a fitness issue.

Liverpool play 5 games in 15 days, including 2 CL Qualifiers. Thats as congested as fixtures tend to get at any stage of the season.

Palace was really the only opportunity to give players a break, hence the rotation last week.

Markx

Kara Muscular Receipt wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

FPLStats shows he is getting transferred out more than in

PVA

Been at 70% to a drop all day.

I'd love to hold off until tomorrow and get him for £12.4m but can't see it happening.

FHFC

Kane aint gonna drop lads. Looks highly unlikely De Druyne will either.

Price changes have changed. I've just done some analysis and there is a big decline in the number of rises and falls so far this season compared to the same period of the last 3 seasons.

I hope to have an article published on it shortly.

As a preview....

Rises till now....i.e. the last day of the pre GW3 period with one night of price changes left this GW.

RISES
2014/15 - 31
2015/16 - 29
2016/17 - 28
2017/18 - 21

25-32% decline.

FALLS
2014/15 - 185
2015/16 - 170
2016/17 - 170
2017/18 - 117

31-36% decline.

MULTIPLE RISES
Only Pogba has risen twice in the same GW. Four players (Pogba, Mhkitaryan, Lukaku and Hegazi) have risen twice.

By the end of GW3 in the last two seasons the number of players who had risen more than once across the two weeks was:
2015/16 - 1 x 0.3 rise (Mahrez) and 5 x 0.2 rises
2016/17 - 1 x 0.3 rise (Negerdo) and 3 x 0.2 rises
2017/18 - TBC after toniight but at best it will be 1 x 0.3 rise (Hegazi) and 3 x 0.2 rises.

Actually likely to end up the same as last season there.

danganabu

FHFC wrote: »

.
Only three players (Pogba, Mhkitaryan and Hegazi) have risen twice

Lukaku has risen twice no??

FHFC

danganabu wrote: »

Lukaku has risen twice no??

****.

He has. I went from records for the last few seasons and memory for this season.

Doh!

Edited. And managed to catch it in the article too, so thanks danganabu.

PVA

What do you think the reasoning behind this is?

I think all changes are made to keep the 'casuals' involved for longer, so reducing the weighting of price rises and falls would fit with this

FHFC

PVA wrote: »

What do you think the reasoning behind this is?

I think all changes are made to keep the 'casuals' involved for longer, so reducing the weighting of price rises and falls would fit with this

I think its more that the number of teams is so high that the rate of change of prices was starting to possibly get out of hand again. There seemed to be some frustration with it around the place, twitter, FFS etc last season and Mark Sutherns from FFS now has an association and influence within the official game.

FHFC

http://fantasyfootballpundits.com/201718-early-season-price-changes-some-very-early-observations/

Iused2likebusts

If there are much less price changes. I'll probably just hold off on all transfers till Fridays unless I'm going to be priced out of a move.

iroced

Maybe there is a % of ownership factor somewhere to define the target NTI. If we know how the target NTO is defined (~10% of actual ownership), the target NTI was always some kinda random number predictions sites were defining by carefully looking at and gathering the amount of NTI for each player to rise (which to me never made any sense in terms of game fairness).

manual_man

i predict a helluva lot of movement tonight

sword1

10 up, 35 down is the Fffix predictions approximately.

shineon23

sword1 wrote: »

10 up, 35 down is the Fffix predictions approximately.

5 up, 26 down according to FPL Statistics but can't see that many changes happening.
I say while hiding behind my couch

shineon23

<Snip>
@Scorpion Sting has better photos, I know when I'm beat

Scorpion Sting

Up:



Maguire, Rooney, Hegazi


Down:



Murray, Arnautovic, T. Davies, Lindelöf, Gayle, Depoitre, C. Taylor, Arfield, Eduardo, Ings, Gosling, Gündogan, Brown, Winks, Musonda

shineon23

Perfect pre-wildcard night changes for me

No-one I'm watching has rose and none of my current rejects have fallen.

Long fortnight ahead of second guessing myself :pac:

FHFC

Updated figures after 2 full GWs.

RISES
2014/15 - 33
2015/16 - 33
2016/17 - 33
2017/18 - 24

FALLS
2014/15 - 207
2015/16 - 201
2016/17 - 186
2017/18 - 132

machiavellianme

FHFC wrote: »

Updated figures after 2 full GWs.

RISES
2014/15 - 33
2015/16 - 33
2016/17 - 33
2017/18 - 24

FALLS
2014/15 - 207
2015/16 - 201
2016/17 - 186
2017/18 - 132

Interesting stats there FHFC. Where'd you pull them from?

Iused2likebusts

machiavellianme wrote: »

Interesting stats there FHFC. Where'd you pull them from?

He recorded them himself. Its a bit of a game changer.

dahat

FHFC wrote: »

Updated figures after 2 full GWs.

RISES
2014/15 - 33
2015/16 - 33
2016/17 - 33
2017/18 - 24

FALLS
2014/15 - 207
2015/16 - 201
2016/17 - 186
2017/18 - 132

Have they increased thresholds inline with increased numbers playing the game possibly?

MuddyDog

Aguero out.

ScummyMan

Richarlison was at 107.2 at 1.30am last night. Must be loads of wildcard.

iroced

dahat wrote: »

Have they increased thresholds inline with increased numbers playing the game possibly?

We don't know. They certainly have adjusted them or implemented a % of ownership parameter for the target NTI as they do for the target NTO.
I don't think they put back the weighting factors since the second and third rise are not THAT lower than in previous years.

ScummyMan

KDB gonna go tonight I'd say

Think I'll swallow this drop, haven't decided who to bring in for him yet.

Porthallian

ScummyMan wrote: »

KDB gonna go tonight I'd say

Think I'll swallow this drop, haven't decided who to bring in for him yet.

I'm gonna roll the dice on Sanchez. KdB dropping. Alexis possibly playing tomorrow.
What could possibly go wrong?

Who_8_Paul?

Arsenal's next game after the international break is home to Bournemouth... If Sanchez gets a good run out tomorrow...

sword1

Porthallian wrote: »

I'm gonna roll the dice on Sanchez. KdB dropping. Alexis possibly playing tomorrow.
What could possibly go wrong?

The next game is 9th September, even if sanchez is fit or not sold you might need the transfer elsewhere

Porthallian

sword1 wrote: »

The next game is 9th September, even if sanchez is fit or not sold you might need the transfer elsewhere

Yeah that's why it's a dice roll.
I'm chasing TV really

sword1

Porthallian wrote: »

Yeah that's why it's a dice roll.
I'm chasing TV really

Points are what matter, less rises and falls this year so less to be gained

km79

Porthallian wrote: »

sword1 wrote: »

The next game is 9th September, even if sanchez is fit or not sold you might need the transfer elsewhere

Yeah that's why it's a dice roll.
I'm chasing TV really

It's a crazy risk
You lose .1 by waiting but you get to see
1. Does Sanchez play tomorrow
2. Does he play well
3. Does he get injured
4. Does he sign for another club
5 . Does he play well for chile in 2 games
6 . Does he get injured in either of those 2 games .
7. Does he return in good time for next round of fixtures .

I'll take the .1 loss in value
.2 if Sanchez really looks on it tomorrow and I have to wait

Porthallian

km79 wrote: »

It's a crazy risk
You lose .1 by waiting but you get to see
1. Does Sanchez play tomorrow
2. Does he play well
3. Does he get injured
4. Does he sign for another club
5 . Does he play well for chile in 2 games
6 . Does he get injured in either of those 2 games .
7. Does he return in good time for next round of fixtures .

I'll take the .1 loss in value
.2 if Sanchez really looks on it tomorrow and I have to wait

Worst case scenario i have a 12m useless lump instead of a 10m useless lump.
Also alcohol may or may not have been involved in my crazy risk...

Who_8_Paul?

Sh1t, Ritchie fell as well as KDB

Scorpion Sting

Up:



Alonso, Mané, Jones


Down:





Walters, De Bruyne, Ritchie, Ward-Prowse, Monreal, Francis, A. Smith, Tuanzebe, J. Ward, Benalouane, Slimani, Colback, Hemed, Bong, Karius, Sako

Markx

Porthallian wrote: »

Worst case scenario i have a 12m useless lump instead of a 10m useless lump.
Also alcohol may or may not have been involved in my crazy risk...

Later in the season when you have the exact money to do a transfer without taking a -4 you will think back fondly on this brave move. He who dares has a better chance of winning than he who always plays safe.

the whole year inn

Any risers or fallers predicted tonight?

sword1

the whole year inn wrote: »

Any risers or fallers predicted tonight?

Yes, post 6 on this thread gives the sites to see it, I think fpl has been the most accurate but I only ever check Fffix

ScummyMan

the whole year inn wrote: »

Any risers or fallers predicted tonight?

Richarlison might rise. Couple of fallers, nothing interesting

Scorpion Sting

Up:




Down:



Van Aanholt, Barkley, Llorente, Fonte, Boruc, Zabaleta, Diouf, Woodburn, Clasie, Højbjerg

dahat

How close are Kane & Morata to changing? I really don't want to lose 0.1 at this stage but not keen on being forced into a wildcard either.

Invincible

dahat wrote: »

How close are Kane & Morata to changing? I really don't want to lose 0.1 at this stage but not keen on being forced into a wildcard either.

Kane -92.3% to fall
Morata 100.9% to rise

dahat

Invincible wrote: »

Kane -92.3% to fall
Morata 100.9% to rise

Decision time it is then. Very early in the International break to be making my FT, ah well.

Invincible

dahat wrote: »

Invincible wrote: »

Kane -92.3% to fall
Morata 100.9% to rise

Decision time it is then. Very early in the International break to be making my FT, ah well.

Morato in for Lacazette last night to prevent loss, have to speculate to accumulate! :-)

dahat

Invincible wrote: »

Morato in for Lacazette last night to prevent loss, have to speculate to accumulate! :-)

It's the first international break where I won't wildcard if i last it out. It seems a good move on form & value.

Invincible

dahat wrote: »

Invincible wrote: »

Morato in for Lacazette last night to prevent loss, have to speculate to accumulate! :-)

It's the first international break where I won't wildcard if i last it out. It seems a good move on form & value.

It does and potential movement.

iroced

Sh*te! Too late! Morata & Firmino rose... Potentially £0.2m lost...

FHFC

Up.

Mooy, Firmino, Mkhitaryan, Morata

Down

Ospina, Mustafi, Wilshere, Giroud, Pugh, Ibe, L.Cook, Fraser, Puncheon, Milner, Coutinho, Grujic, S.Long, Afellay, Nkoudou, Reid, Byram

FHFC

Lot of activity last night. Few quid lost but I'm not ready to decide what I'm doing.

Things will slow right down from here till the end of next week.