Winter 2017-18: Discussion

sryanbruen

OldRio wrote: »

Well I have to say we have had some lovely weather here in Leitrim over the last two weeks. Plenty of sunshine and the land is drying out.
I've been working outside on the farm. Clearing some land. It's wonderful to be outside.
I'd venture to say this is the best spell of weather since July last year.
It's been colder today but wearing the correct clothes you don't feel it if you're working hard.

I'd say best spell of weather since May last year for me, Summer 2017 was a pile of sh!t.

gabeeg

Any predictions on when the jet stream will return to its typical pattern?

sryanbruen

Interesting, surely arctic sea ice will plunge in this state. Wonder of the atmospheric impacts on our patterns this would cause in the bigger scheme of things.

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/968198432186826754

gabeeg

eek

MJohnston

Don't want to put this in the technical thread, but anyone want to fact-check this graphic I made?

pistolpetes11

MJohnston wrote: »

Don't want to put this in the technical thread, but anyone want to fact-check this graphic I made?

Looks brilliant to me

gabeeg

That's really beautifully illustrated data.

What could improve it is making it show the current time.
Current time always points 00 (North), and the schedule rotates accordingly.

sryanbruen

A lovely piece of work you made there MJohnston! Looks very professional and it should help some of us in understanding the duration and timings of model runs. Thank you for it and I will use it as a picture guide to people who ask me about the timings of the model runs. Be proud of yourself

NAGDEFI

MJohnston wrote: »

Don't want to put this in the technical thread, but anyone want to fact-check this graphic I made?

Great work MJohnston. Saved to desktop, hope copyright not infringed;)

pad199207

You should put ‘Johnston model diagram’in the middle of it. Fantastic work!

gabeeg

Here's an example of what I meant earlier, sped up to depict a day in 60 seconds

https://framer.cloud/HWPKK/1/index.html?cloud=1

Rougies

MJohnston wrote: »

Don't want to put this in the technical thread, but anyone want to fact-check this graphic I made?

Beautiful. I think you've swapped the ECM and UKMO duration times though? Run start times look about right.

MJohnston

Rougies wrote: »

Beautiful. I think you've swapped the ECM and UKMO duration times though? Run start times look about right.

I couldn't find a runtime duration for the ECM actually, Meteociel implies that it's instantly posted at 10 minutes past the hour?

Rougies

MJohnston wrote: »

I couldn't find a runtime duration for the ECM actually, Meteociel implies that it's instantly posted at 10 minutes past the hour?

It takes about 45 mins to an hour to get to the last frame of the ECM run. I'm sure one of the the more observant posters will be able to give you a more exact run duration

pistolpetes11

Should be a written rule on this forum that chart goes in on the OP of every event thread on this forum , the more I look at it , the more brilliant it gets

km79

Another great day in east Galway
Much colder but mighty drying again

sryanbruen

Not been looking at these stratosphere charts in a few days and this has caught my eye now! I was not expecting this at all. It seems there has been a third spike in stratosphere temperatures at 30hPa, the stratosphere has been behaving amazing and very strange as of late. There was first a major SSW then a Canadian Warming which was a good bit warmer than the major SSW and now we have this spike out of nowhere which is a few degrees warmer than the major SSW! I am shocked. This definitely has to have a major impact on the zonal wind speeds - I will discuss in my Spring 2018 forecast I will hopefully forecast later - I might have to delay though due to timing concerns. Mods, can I start a Spring 2018 discussion thread for things like my forecast, talking about the latter half of March, April and May etc? Or will I just post my Spring 2018 forecast here when I've done it?



Less impressive at 10hPa but still remarkably warm!

ZX7R

Sryanbruen I think there was a spring thread started a few weeks ago

sryanbruen

ZX7R wrote: »

Sryanbruen I think there was a spring thread started a few weeks ago

Link please?

EDIT: Are you referring to this?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057827376

ZX7R

sryanbruen wrote: »

Link please?

EDIT: Are you referring to this?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057827376

Yes that's it.
I don't know how to link threads sorry

Captain Snow

Just a gentle reminder if peeps want to put all there snow photos in the one thread. Here is the Link:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057845112

_Dara_

It begins.

Dublin 15.

pistolpetes11

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Should be a written rule on this forum that chart goes in on the OP of every event thread on this forum , the more I look at it , the more brilliant it gets

The icing on the cake would be to have a list of URLs on the chart as well

sryanbruen

ZX7R wrote: »

Yes that's it.
I don't know how to link threads sorry

Seems more Summer than Spring but I guess I'll post the forecast there then.

m17

Forecast galway Tuesday night 27/02/18
Mainly clear and cold with a snow shower, untreated surfaces will be slippery lo-3℃ real feel -11℃
Wednesday day 28/02/18
Variable cloudiness with a couple of snow showers untreated surfaces will be slippery hi 1℃ real feel -6℃
Wednesday night
Mostly cloudy and cold with a couple of snow showers untreated surfaces will be slippery lo -4℃ real feel -13℃
Thursday 01/03/18
Cloudy with a couple of snow showers hi 0℃ real feel -13℃
Thursday night
Windy and chilly with periods of snow accumulations and additional 6-12cms near blizzard conditions lo -1℃ real feel -15℃
Friday 02/03/18
Windy and chilly with periods of snow 3-6cms,total 6-12cms,potential for a major snowstorms hi 3℃ real feel -7℃
Friday night
Mostly cloudy and chilly with snow showers possible lo 0℃ real feel -8℃ stay safe out there yours m17

nacho libre

Looking further ahead,
It seems our Scandi High has gone too far west too quickly, which is always the risk with a west based NAO. This has allowed the lows from the south to enroach on the cold air from the east. Still while the jet is forecasted to stay south, we won't see very mild weather for a good while yet. So colder weather always in the offing, but unlikely to see a return of the very cold weather we have at the moment. Hopefully before we lose the real cold uppers we get snowmageddon on Thursday and into Friday.

Rock Lesnar

Jesus lads i dont normally get carried away here but iv'e never seen so much snow, and whatever comes tomorrow on top of it is mind boggling, im not looking forward to the thaw, i hope it'll be very slow

Rock Lesnar

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

im not looking forward to the thaw, i hope it'll be very slow

I meant this as in flooding, a rapid thaw will cause havoc here, hence why i hope its going to be slow, as for today more snow showers then i can remember and theres a blizzard out there at the minute, and the worst is still to come.

NAGDEFI

http://oldcoachroad.net/blizzardof47.html

Nice story on one of the 1947 blizzards, Boyle, Roscommon.

Get people in the mood!!

DOCARCH

New thread for Spring: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057846555