2018 Leaf

cros13

_dof_ wrote: »

In the brochure from the UK, they have the following:

USE OF PETROL OR DIESEL CAR
YOU want to make extra-long journeys in
your car.
NISSAN PROMISE to lend you a petrol or diesel
car, free of charge, for up to 14 days during the
first three years.

which seems like a good idea to alleviate the perceived range anxiety issue.

Is there any talk of the same in Ireland?

Nope.

BMW offered a similar program for the i3. Plenty of people bought it (€300/3 years), so few used it that it was more than a year and half before BMW Ireland actually worked out with the dealers how it would even work.

thierry14 wrote: »

Why is it taking so long for the battery giants to get it together?

You would think if Hyundai and Nissan said we need 100k battery packs each at $6000 they would fill that order pretty quick

It's a problem that can be split into a few factors:

1. The sheer scale of the production increase required -
Tesla purchased around 9 GWh of cells in 2016 between cars (~84k produced) and grid storage, and is projecting using at least 65GWh in 2020 between both markets (which is double total global 2013 lithium ion production by all manufacturers, in all cell sizes/chemistries for any purpose). LG Chem is the 2nd largest player in market after Tesla-Panasonic and their total global vehicle battery production in 2015 for example was only 1.5GWh. Their biggest investment of the last decade is a new plant in Poland that started production this year and will scale from 1.5GWh next year to 3GWh in 2020. They are also increasing production at all their existing plants by a minimum of 50%. Samsung SDI is lock step with LG Chem with an identically scaled new plant in Hungary and practically the same production growth rate at other plants. To replace just the 15.1 million passenger cars sold in europe in 2016 with EVs with an average pack capacity of 50kWh is going to require over 750GWh of cells. TerraE might be able to produce 34GWh in 2021/22 presuming they can get the last of the funding together. Northvolt don't have the money yet.

So total european cell production in 2020 to be shared by all local carmakers looks like this:

Manufacturer|Location|Production (GWh)
LG Chem|Poland|3
Samsung SDI|Hungary|3
Samsung SDI (ex. Magna Steyr)|Austria|0.6
Daimler|Germany|2
ex.Nissan/AESC|UK|3
Accupower|Germany|no HV production
A123|Germany|0.4 (mostly LV)
2020 Total|Europe|12 (1.6% of the 2016 market)

And that's shared with Hybrids and PHEVs. With the exception of Tesla and China, nobody has any serious production plans.
If we were serious in europe... to meet our targets we'd need to grow that 12GWh/annum to 1000GWh/annum by 2030.

2. Battery manufacturers have been burned before -
In 2011/2012 several large battery makers had serious financial trouble and several went into bankruptcy due to over capacity. Largely because of promised demand/orders from car makers that never materialised. There are still analysts in the industry projecting 2020 over capacity. Executives are quite reasonably wary of overextending themselves. And most manufacturers would characterise their current up to 50% year-on-year production growth rate as aggressive.

3. Lack of finance to expand production faster -
Because of the above finance is relatively hard to come by, even "big" battery makers like LG Chem and Samsung SDI have difficulty getting money from their own parent groups without firm orders and money on the table. Car makers are not used to dealing with suppliers in this situation and are still placing orders late into production, are unwilling to front the cash and blindly assume production capacity will be there to meet their needs. For example Jaguar Land Rover only put out RFQs for the battery cells for the I-Pace the month before pilot production this autumn.

4. Cell price -
A low cell price is a necessity for a car maker to produce a reasonably priced vehicle. That necessity means that the bulk market is low margin for the battery manufacturer, so less profitable and consequently less working capital yielded to finance further production increases. It's far and away the most expensive component of the car and with the carmakers margin each €1/KWh on the battery cell price is €200 on to the retail price of a 100kWh car. When break even price per kWh for various manufacturers at different scales varies at the moment from $120 to $300, the production capacity may not exist at the price point you are targeting.
Another consequence of the necessity of low margin production is it makes the battery market unattractive to potential investors or new entrants.

Mark my words, there will be plenty of stories of car manufacturers putting out RFQs for battery cells for new vehicles and being unable find anyone to fill the order.

BoatMad

BoatMad wrote: »

But the hot hatch marketplace has largely died off.

Due to the cost of running a petrol these days.

who_ru

who_ru wrote: »

the meantime I’ve decided to go ICE, Seat Leon FR petrol.

You should get a test drive in a BMW I3, guaranteed you wouldn't want to go near the Leon FR.

You could get a 2015/16 Rex of the older 21 Kwh battery, you'd have the best of both worlds, Range and a lot of fun at very cheap running costs.

Gumbo

Deleted User wrote: »

Due to the cost of running a petrol these days.

Mainly insurance

thierry14

cros13 wrote: »

It's a problem that can be split into a few factors:

1. The sheer scale of the production increase required -
Tesla purchased around 9 GWh of cells in 2016 between cars (~84k produced) and grid storage, and is projecting using at least 65GWh in 2020 between both markets (which is double total global 2013 lithium ion production by all manufacturers, in all cell sizes/chemistries for any purpose). LG Chem is the 2nd largest player in market after Tesla-Panasonic and their total global vehicle battery production in 2015 for example was only 1.5GWh. Their biggest investment of the last decade is a new plant in Poland that started production this year and will scale from 1.5GWh next year to 3GWh in 2020. They are also increasing production at all their existing plants by a minimum of 50%. Samsung SDI is lock step with LG Chem with an identically scaled new plant in Hungary and practically the same production growth rate at other plants. To replace just the 15.1 million passenger cars sold in europe in 2016 with EVs with an average pack capacity of 50kWh is going to require over 750GWh of cells. TerraE might be able to produce 34GWh in 2021/22 presuming they can get the last of the funding together. Northvolt don't have the money yet.

So total european cell production in 2020 to be shared by all local carmakers looks like this:

Manufacturer|Location|Production (GWh)
LG Chem|Poland|3
Samsung SDI|Hungary|3
Samsung SDI (ex. Magna Steyr)|Austria|0.6
Daimler|Germany|2
ex.Nissan/AESC|UK|3
Accupower|Germany|no HV production
A123|Germany|0.4 (mostly LV)
2020 Total|Europe|12 (1.6% of the 2016 market)

And that's shared with Hybrids and PHEVs. With the exception of Tesla and China, nobody has any serious production plans.
If we were serious in europe... to meet our targets we'd need to grow that 12GWh/annum to 1000GWh/annum by 2030.

2. Battery manufacturers have been burned before -
In 2011/2012 several large battery makers had serious financial trouble and several went into bankruptcy due to over capacity. Largely because of promised demand/orders from car makers that never materialised. There are still analysts in the industry projecting 2020 over capacity. Executives are quite reasonably wary of overextending themselves. And most manufacturers would characterise their current up to 50% year-on-year production growth rate as aggressive.

3. Lack of finance to expand production faster -
Because of the above finance is relatively hard to come by, even "big" battery makers like LG Chem and Samsung SDI have difficulty getting money from their own parent groups without firm orders and money on the table. Car makers are not used to dealing with suppliers in this situation and are still placing orders late into production, are unwilling to front the cash and blindly assume production capacity will be there to meet their needs. For example Jaguar Land Rover only put out RFQs for the battery cells for the I-Pace the month before pilot production this autumn.

4. Cell price -
A low cell price is a necessity for a car maker to produce a reasonably priced vehicle. That necessity means that the bulk market is low margin for the battery manufacturer, so less profitable and consequently less working capital yielded to finance further production increases. It's far and away the most expensive component of the car and with the carmakers margin each €1/KWh on the battery cell price is €200 on to the retail price of a 100kWh car. When break even price per kWh for various manufacturers at different scales varies at the moment from $120 to $300, the production capacity may not exist at the price point you are targeting.
Another consequence of the necessity of low margin production is it makes the battery market unattractive to potential investors or new entrants.

Mark my words, there will be plenty of stories of car manufacturers putting out RFQs for battery cells for new vehicles and being unable find anyone to fill the order.

That sounds awful

Going to be a long long time before EV's are going to be mainstream then

Tesla can kill it, if they pull there **** together

No wonder stock is so high

Could easily be the next apple if battery production is in that much ****

_dof_

cros13 wrote: »

Nope.

BMW offered a similar program for the i3. Plenty of people bought it (€300/3 years), so few used it that it was more than a year and half before BMW Ireland actually worked out with the dealers how it would even work.

It didn't look like some option that Nissan were selling, just part of the package you would get with the Leaf purchase.

Seemed like a great idea to me. Range anxiety is the only reason for not going down the EV route that I have heard from anyone I've talked to. Even our transport minister gave that as his reason in interviews.

So, if people had the option to get free loan of an ICE for those times that they were worried about a journey in the Leaf, that would be a good way to alleviate that anxiety. Since it's a 40kwh battery, they would very quickly realise that they don't really need the ICE loan after all.

I've already decided my next car will be a BEV and have been keeping an eye out on charger locations etc. On a driving tour of the south east I stayed in a hotel in Waterford and Wexford, and they both had an EV charging space , but they were both ICEd .

In any case, even if they weren't ICEd, if there had been one other guest in a BEV and they got the spot for overnight charging before me, I'd have been in trouble, I'd have to come up with some contingency plan. But with a loaned ICE, I would have been fine.

Although, I suppose, even if Nissan aren't officially providing this, the dealer might give people a loaner anyway, just as they do when your car is being serviced.

thierry14

Will the new Leaf have similar degradatation as 30kWh in pic

Kind of crazy when you look at it in detail

No wonder Leaf leasing is so popular in the States

DrPhilG

thierry14 wrote: »

Will the new Leaf have similar degradatation as 30kWh in pic

Kind of crazy when you look at it in detail

No wonder Leaf leasing is so popular in the States

Is that guesstimation or accurate? Or has the 30kwh gone that badly backwards?

I've got 45k miles on my 141 Leaf. Still around 93% SOH and no bars lost. According to that graph I should be about to drop my second bar.

Orebro

I think those charts etc done by people from other countries need to be looked at closer as they may live in climates completely different to our own with extremes in summer and winter. General consensus is that the Irish climate is pretty good for Leaf batteries.

thierry14

DrPhilG wrote: »

Is that guesstimation or accurate? Or has the 30kwh gone that badly backwards?

I've got 45k miles on my 141 Leaf. Still around 93% SOH and no bars lost. According to that graph I should be about to drop my second bar.

Its based on the warranty offered reading this

Chart would be borderline battery warranty replacement, eg worstcase

Not something we might have to worry about too much, but seeing lot of comments of degradatation in places like Florida for 30kWh model

Fast charging, 33c air temp and high humidity not a good combination

Going by the graph your about to drop your first bar

Pretty good for 3 years and over 40k miles

At that rate car will have done 300k miles and lost 30% battery

https://insideevs.com/battery-capacity-loss-chart-2016-30-kwh-nissan-leaf/

KCross

thierry14 wrote: »

Will the new Leaf have similar degradatation as 30kWh in pic

Kind of crazy when you look at it in detail

No wonder Leaf leasing is so popular in the States

I'd take that with a pinch of salt. Like DrPhilG, I've a 24kWh Leaf and its significantly better than that table shows and thats for a 24kWh Leaf.

A 30kWh Leaf should be better than the 24kWh Leaf.

KCross

thierry14 wrote: »

Its based on the warranty offered reading this

Chart would be borderline battery warranty replacement, eg worstcase

Ah ok, so its not an indication. Its what would need to happen if you were to get a warranty replacement. Very different context!

With the exception of the original battery which suffered a lot worse even in our climate, the current 24 Kwh is a lot more reliable.

With 80,400 kms my battery is somewhere around 90-95% and no doubt my fast motorway driving will take its toll as it will require more frequent charging.

ewj1978

thierry14 wrote: »

Will the new Leaf have similar degradatation as 30kWh in pic

Kind of crazy when you look at it in detail

No wonder Leaf leasing is so popular in the States

I've 52k/Km on my 30kw leaf. 98% SOH..

grogi

thierry14 wrote: »

Will the new Leaf have similar degradatation as 30kWh in pic

Kind of crazy when you look at it in detail

No wonder Leaf leasing is so popular in the States

How come the 2016 30 kWh Leaf has been on the road longer than 24 months?

And if that is even an estimation - 30% in 8 years does not seem that bad...

kris_2021

cros13 wrote: »

Spoke to Windsor yesterday.

Confirmation that the price lists are being released tomorrow.
Confirmation that the 2018 Leaf is excluded from the Buy a 181 swap for a 191 promotion

Again, at least initially scrappage and other discount schemes are unlikely given demand vastly outstrips supply.

still no sign of pricing???

ftm2008

kris_2021 wrote: »

still no sign of pricing???

Not full price list but maybe the only one available on launch


https://m.independent.ie/life/motoring/car-news/revealed-special-leaf-launch-models-price-36277943.html

huggs2

Propark won't be available till may 2018. Anyone know if this will be a software update for early release models?

BoatMad

DrPhilG wrote: »

Is that guesstimation or accurate? Or has the 30kwh gone that badly backwards?

I've got 45k miles on my 141 Leaf. Still around 93% SOH and no bars lost. According to that graph I should be about to drop my second bar.

Guesstimate based on averaging older tech battery. Largerly debunked

Gumbo

kris_2021 wrote: »

still no sign of pricing???

I was in Nissan in Blanch yesterday and they had no info at all.
They couldn’t even drive the car at the dealer launch due to all the electrics been in Japanese.

thecomedian

I know it’s probably on here already but would someone mind telling me what the realistic range of the 30kw Leaf?

KCross

thecomedian wrote: »

I know it’s probably on here already but would someone mind telling me what the realistic range of the 30kw Leaf?

Depends on a lot of variables but around 160-180km.

What's the average at 100 Kph/110 Kph ? say, this time of year with no wet or high wind ? And is this to empty or what % left ?

thecomedian

It would be driven easy. Thinking of persuading my Mum to avail of the scrappage scheme with her old 528. 5000 for the trade in, so it's tempting.

ewj1978

Deleted User wrote: »

What's the average at 100 Kph/110 Kph ? say, this time of year with no wet or high wind ? And is this to empty or what % left ?

100-110 would get you 150-170km depending on how your acceleration is etc..

peposhi

KCross wrote: »

Depends on a lot of variables but around 160-180km.

I second that

boiledkitten

Just over in Hutton in blanch and they've no details whatsoever on the new leaf. Anyone got anything firm on pricing etc yet?

tedpan

boiledkitten wrote:

Just over in Hutton in blanch and they've no details whatsoever on the new leaf. Anyone got anything firm on pricing etc yet?

Not surprised, Alan is pretty useless unless you want to buy something he has in stock immediately.

I called Barlo Nissan in Kilkenny today, no news yet only we're probably the last or close to being the last to get the Leaf this time after disastrous sales. Last time we were one of the first in Europe.

Unfortunately Nissan chose to release the Leaf with one spec called limited edition, high enough spec but no leather or LED headlights, you'd think that the limited edition would be fully kitted out !

I called Barlo to see if they can get any kind of delivery dates and when a top spec might be available and if they would let me rent the car off them for a couple of months.

BoatMad

thecomedian wrote: »

I know it’s probably on here already but would someone mind telling me what the realistic range of the 30kw Leaf?

after 80,000KM of experience , I can say its a 150km car at <= 100Km as an average

Ive done better and Ive done worse depending

note that 100kmph on the leaf is about 91kmph in reality