Japan 2019 World Cup draw

The Lost Sheep

endabob1 wrote: »

Actually my issue isn't with the tickets per se, it's really why the draw is so far in advance and based on the seeding from 2 and a half years before the competition starts. The reasoning behind this was that the draw needs to made over 2 years in advance to sell tickets.
So would the solution would be to sell tickets in advance before the draw, (which is what happens in the football world cup) and hold back a percentage to sell to the countries involved? Or are RWC thinking that they need the big names allocated early to put bums on seats??
I was in Oz for the 2003 RWC when Ireland Australia & Argentina were in the same pool, all 3 teams ranked in the top 7 in the world at the start of the tournament, it does seem to always throw up one stupid group.

Its done to sell tickets and selling tickets in advance isnt really the option that it is in soccer. You cant compare the two and it would be the same with any other major team sport event.
There is 4 groups of 5. There always will be one very tough group until we have the case where the Georgians/Americans/Island nations etc get much stronger.

endabob1 wrote: »

I was in SA for 2010 and bought tickets in the first ballot when you had no idea who you would get. They sold them locally not quite 2 years in advance but close enough I guess, I can't remember exactly when.
When the draw was made for the finals which would have been 6 months out, they released another batch, but the bulk of the tickets at this point were long gone.

I do understand the advance ticket sales idea, I just think there must be a better way of determining the draw a bit closer to the actual event.

What is this better way? Remember rugby isnt soccer. Doesnt have anywhere near the support so doing it this way is needed to make enough sales.

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

A year out would be next to impossible.
From today they'll spend the next 4/5 months working out the schedule and only then can they start selling tickets. The schedule is quite complex to keep everyone happy, be fair to all teams and fans, take into account ground availability (e.g., the way Wembley was only available for the first 8 days of the 2015 comp), tv company demands for the more interesting games to be spread over the 4 weekends, package holiday requirements, lots of other stuff.
Only then can a hard core ticket selling campaign begin.

They wouldnt spend 4/5 months working out schedule though how to make schedule fair is a major issue that isnt the case as much/at all, in soccer.

jmayo wrote: »

Actually a bone of contention for weaker teams is that the schedule isn't fair to the smaller teams who usually get less time between games to suit the higher profile teams.

I seem to remember Georgia playing games 4 and 5 days apart whereas other teams got 6 and 7.

Georgia did have to play games 4/5 days apart as did some other sides ranked 4th/5th in their pool but so did quite a few of the bigger nations. South Africa, New Zealand, Argentina, Australia and France all played games 4/5 days apart during pool stage in 2015

dadad231

I guess Rugby is an emerging sport in Japan?.
I would never have placed it popular there - how come the draw is made so early too ?

The Lost Sheep

dadad231 wrote: »

I guess Rugby is an emerging sport in Japan?.
I would never have placed it popular there - how come the draw is made so early too ?

Rugby is very popular in Japan and its had a successful pro league for quite some time and that has had the backing of many large corporations for years.
Japan also has more players than most countries. Has 4th or 5th most players of any country.
Draw made this early to help ticket sales/promote competition

dadad231

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

Rugby is very popular in Japan and its had a successful pro league for quite some time and that has had the backing of many large corporations for years.
Japan also has more players than most countries. Has 4th or 5th most players of any country.
Draw made this early to help ticket sales/promote competition

Interesting, I wouldn't have thought they would have had a great team -lets see.

Elvisjuice

dadad231 wrote: »

Interesting, I wouldn't have thought they would have had a great team -lets see.

why would you think that

thomond2006

Buer wrote: »

Big difference in resting players as you know you're going to win anyway and resting players and essentially throwing the game....in front of your own fans in the RWC.

The 'in front of your own fans' issue is the killer for me. Imagine if Ireland did that!

Quint2010

I see Heaslip has gotten himself in trouble with the Scots after punching the air when seeing the group...

Quint2010

Quint2010 wrote: »

I see Heaslip has gotten himself in trouble with the Scots after punching the air when seeing the group...

Yeah I saw that. Has generated a wonderful bit of salt on twitter. More power to him!

Glen_Quagmire

Would be interested in travelling over for a game, anyone any idea roughly what kind of money you'd be talking for a week over there for flights, accommodation and match ticket?

Podge_irl

Glen_Quagmire wrote: »

Would be interested in travelling over for a game, anyone any idea roughly what kind of money you'd be talking for a week over there for flights, accommodation and match ticket?

Honestly, no one is gonna have a clue. Japan is not actually that expensive - you could do a week there for 1200-1500EUR including flights no hassle (less if you don't mind "slumming" it a bit).

With the World Cup on...no idea what that'll do to flights and accom.

jr86

First things first it's a wonderful draw in the sense that we're pretty much guaranteed a quarter. And we have a great chance at topping the pool

Scotland are coming along nicely though and depending on when we play them it could be a serious banana skin. Early try or two, a dodgy referee call, sinbin or whatever, you just can never tell.

That said I don't think there was any draw combination we wouldn't have gotten out of the group. So for me it was always mainly a firm eye on the quarters. It's impossible to know how good SA will be, but it's a little silly to judge them on recency effect two years out when Australia looked all at sea this time in 2013 and mediocre england and France sides were arguably both unlucky not to win their 2007/2011 finals respectively after pretty much getting there on experience alone

jr86

swiwi_ wrote: »

It was such a wimpy thing to do. They basically conceded defeat by resting their A team in order to be better prepared for their quarter final. Which they lost of course.

I struggle to think of any other tier one side which would start a RWC pool game having already openly admitted defeat.

It has been shown multiple times that upsets are absolutely possible in the RWC.

I know Wales did it v ABs in the final group game in 03 but I think they were pretty much guaranteed second anyway due to PD and Wales were at a real low ebb then. Interestingly I think that was the game that re-ignited shane williams' Wales career

Did France do similar v NZ 2011?

jr86

swiwi_ wrote: »

It was such a wimpy thing to do. They basically conceded defeat by resting their A team in order to be better prepared for their quarter final. Which they lost of course.

I struggle to think of any other tier one side which would start a RWC pool game having already openly admitted defeat.

It has been shown multiple times that upsets are absolutely possible in the RWC.

I know Wales did it v ABs in the final group game in 03 but I think they were pretty much guaranteed second anyway due to PD and Wales were at a real low ebb then. Interestingly I think that was the game that re-ignited shane williams' Wales career

Did France do similar v NZ 2011?

jr86

Despite a bit of giddiness when the draw was made, do we really expect England not to top their group never mind qualify with little fuss? France have been a mess for years and how good are Argentina really? They had a freak start against us in 2015 and we were coming in off the back of a bruising gargantuan battle with a depleted side. Think we flattered them something massive that day tbh

thelad95

For Scotland in 2007, there would really have been no advantage to them going all out against the all blacks but it was really bad form given that they were playing in a sell out Murrayfield.

Either way they were facing into a QF against ourselves or Argentina, whereas had they pulled off a massive shock it would likely have been France.

Former Former

jr86 wrote: »

Despite a bit of giddiness when the draw was made, do we really expect England not to top their group never mind qualify with little fuss? France have been a mess for years and how good are Argentina really? They had a freak start against us in 2015 and we were coming in off the back of a bruising gargantuan battle with a depleted side. Think we flattered them something massive that day tbh

The World Cup is more than two years away.

It's less than two years since England finished third in their pool, despite being the host nation.

A lot is going to change between now and then.

molloyjh

Quint2010 wrote: »

I see Heaslip has gotten himself in trouble with the Scots after punching the air when seeing the group...

I punched the air in the office. Got a lot of funny looks for it. Totally get why he did tbh.

leakyboots

Neither here nor there I guess but Steve Hansen was giving a quote about England's group, was somewhat disparaging of them - found it interesting also that he didn't namecheck us as a rival for the title

“They’re (England) one of [our rivals], along with South Africa, Australia and France,” Hansen said. “By the time the World Cup comes around any one of a number of teams could win the tournament. England are getting better and better all the time, but they’re in a really strong pool.

techdiver

leakyboots wrote: »

Neither here nor there I guess but Steve Hansen was giving a quote about England's group, was somewhat disparaging of them - found it interesting also that he didn't namecheck us as a rival for the title

“They’re (England) one of [our rivals], along with South Africa, Australia and France,” Hansen said. “By the time the World Cup comes around any one of a number of teams could win the tournament. England are getting better and better all the time, but they’re in a really strong pool.

I wouldn't really find it strange.

We rate ourselves higher than other countries do. We are not rated in the Southern Hemisphere, especially when it come to World Cups where we just haven't turned up and performed apart from a few one off games.

Until we perform at World Cups, we will never be seen as a threat by the "big" nations.

Bazzo

leakyboots wrote: »

Neither here nor there I guess but Steve Hansen was giving a quote about England's group, was somewhat disparaging of them - found it interesting also that he didn't namecheck us as a rival for the title

“They’re (England) one of [our rivals], along with South Africa, Australia and France,” Hansen said. “By the time the World Cup comes around any one of a number of teams could win the tournament. England are getting better and better all the time, but they’re in a really strong pool.

We'll probably have to make it past a quarter final before anyone considers us a rival for the title.

techdiver

techdiver wrote: »

I wouldn't really find it strange.

We rate ourselves higher than other countries do. We are not rated in the Southern Hemisphere, especially when it come to World Cups where we just haven't turned up and performed apart from a few one off games.

Until we perform at World Cups, we will never be seen as a threat by the "big" nations.

Same with France, I know we've done well enough in the last few seasons but they expect to beat us every time. Kidney and EOS both had horrible records against them, that hasn't been undone yet.

errlloyd

Does the draw kind of guarantee what city we will play our games in?

The Lost Sheep

errlloyd wrote:

Does the draw kind of guarantee what city we will play our games in?

not really bar probably playing Japan in Tokyo I don't see anything guaranteed about the other games

ArmaniJeanss

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

A year out would be next to impossible.
From today they'll spend the next 4/5 months working out the schedule and only then can they start selling tickets.

The Lost Sheep wrote: »

They wouldnt spend 4/5 months working out schedule though how to make schedule fair is a major issue that isnt the case as much/at all, in soccer.

When would you expect the fixture schedule then? Looking around internet I've seen late September mentioned which would be the 4/5 months that I said.
Granted it won't be the only thing they are working on.

PTH2009

prob Japan vs Scotland will be the opening match of the tournament with us maybe playing Japan last or 3rd

our fixtures could be like this
Game 1- Playoff Winner
game 2- Europe 1
game 3- Japan
game 4- Scotland

although id love a crack at Scotland first

thebaz

Ireland couldn't have asked for a better draw - the big question will be who we get in quarters - and can we make our first semi ??

France Argentina will be pretty tasty

Podge_irl

thebaz wrote: »

Ireland couldn't have asked for a better draw - the big question will be who we get in quarters - and can we make our first semi ??

France Argentina will be pretty tasty

We're going to get South Africa.

CMOTDibbler

Podge_irl wrote: »

We're going to get South Africa.

If SA continue on their current downward spiral, that's not a given. You'd hope that they can get their sh1t together in the intervening period, but the underlying issues look nowhere near being solved.

Podge_irl

CMOTDibbler wrote: »

If SA continue on their current downward spiral, that's not a given. You'd hope that they can get their sh1t together in the intervening period, but the underlying issues look nowhere near being solved.

Well if we get Italy all the bloody better I suppose.

No matter what happens I struggle to see SA beating NZ, but there is a fair chance of a resurgence that would make them a very tough QF opponent.

The Pheasant2

Slightly apprehensive about where SA could be 2 years from now...this thread http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057474430/4 if anything shows a lot can change in two years in Rugby.

Buer

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

Slightly apprehensive about where SA could be 2 years from now...this thread http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057474430/4 if anything shows a lot can change in two years in Rugby.

It can change for the worse too. SA have a huge battle on their hands to get back to being competitive in the Rugby Championship. They're in real trouble at the moment.

The departure of Faf de Klerk this week only continues to highlight the problems.

The one thing they have going for them is the age profile of their squad. They've a very strong base of players aged 24-28 who will be right in their peak in 2019. They need to retain those guys and actually build a decent team around them.

The biggest problem for them isn't on the field though.

Podge_irl

The Pheasant2 wrote: »

Slightly apprehensive about where SA could be 2 years from now...this thread http://touch.boards.ie/thread/2057474430/4 if anything shows a lot can change in two years in Rugby.

bilston wrote: »

14 Luke Fitzgerald - all his injuries to date may prolong his career

Sigh...

swiwi_

leakyboots wrote: »

Neither here nor there I guess but Steve Hansen was giving a quote about England's group, was somewhat disparaging of them - found it interesting also that he didn't namecheck us as a rival for the title

“They’re (England) one of [our rivals], along with South Africa, Australia and France,” Hansen said. “By the time the World Cup comes around any one of a number of teams could win the tournament. England are getting better and better all the time, but they’re in a really strong pool.

Methinks you are too sensitive. This micro-analysis of comments given off the cuff by another coach desperately seeking to find a slight on the Irish team.

At the end of the day, the historical record shows that SA, Aust, Eng and France have posed the most problems to NZ teams in terms of defeat.

I really don't think you read more into it than that, although people always do their best.

swiwi_

CMOTDibbler

swiwi_ wrote: »

padser

PTH2009 wrote: »

prob Japan vs Scotland will be the opening match of the tournament with us maybe playing Japan last or 3rd

our fixtures could be like this
Game 1- Playoff Winner
game 2- Europe 1
game 3- Japan
game 4- Scotland

although id love a crack at Scotland first

I'd be shocked if Japan / Scotland is the tournament opener.

Japan / Minow is possible
Japan / Ireland might happen

If Japan were to go out and lose against Scotland in the first game it would likely severely dent interest in the tournament in the host country. Effectively Japan's only realistic route to the QF will be through bearing Scotland - organisers will want to keep that possibility alive for as long as possible.

My guess is they want to open with a Japanese win against a Minow.

PTH2009

padser wrote: »

I'd be shocked if Japan / Scotland is the tournament opener.

Japan / Minow is possible
Japan / Ireland might happen

If Japan were to go out and lose against Scotland in the first game it would likely severely dent interest in the tournament in the host country. Effectively Japan's only realistic route to the QF will be through bearing Scotland - organisers will want to keep that possibility alive for as long as possible.

My guess is they want to open with a Japanese win against a Minow.

Scotland cud beat us early in the pool and Japan will be looking to beat us for a QF place

Still 2.5 years is still a while away and who knows who the power houses of rugby will be then

Japan are 8 hours ahead of us so most of the games will be morning time here

leakyboots

swiwi_ wrote: »

Methinks you are too sensitive. This micro-analysis of comments given off the cuff by another coach desperately seeking to find a slight on the Irish team.

At the end of the day, the historical record shows that SA, Aust, Eng and France have posed the most problems to NZ teams in terms of defeat.

I really don't think you read more into it than that, although people always do their best.

What are you on about? I started my sentence with 'neither here nor there but'.

I just found it interesting more than anything else given our recent history with beating them/running them close

vienne86

Only catching up on this now - wow, great draw for us, and getting the host nation in our pool is a real bonus. Quarter final could be difficult, but very very hard to tell how things will be two years down the track.

endabob1

I expect that Japan will invest heavily in their team in the next 2 years, in terms of coaching especially. Jamie Joseph is an excellent coach, super Rugby title with the highlanders, he's played in and for Japan as well as the all blacks so knows the culture.
They were bloody close last time round to getting out of their group and I think they will be targeting a QF place as a minimum (think 2002 football world cup)

I wonder if Scotland will continue to progress like they have in the last 12 months, if they do the group could be much more competitive than the current thinking has it.
Of course there is every possibility that they will fade away again, 2 professional teams only one of which seem to be competitive at any given time, but Townsend has a good record at pro12 level so who knows....

dadad231

Elvisjuice wrote: »

why would you think that

Sorry its an ignorant opinion, I just wouldn't have thought they would be naturally built for Rugby.

Akrasia

endabob1 wrote: »

I expect that Japan will invest heavily in their team in the next 2 years, in terms of coaching especially. Jamie Joseph is an excellent coach, super Rugby title with the highlanders, he's played in and for Japan as well as the all blacks so knows the culture.
They were bloody close last time round to getting out of their group and I think they will be targeting a QF place as a minimum (think 2002 football world cup)

I wonder if Scotland will continue to progress like they have in the last 12 months, if they do the group could be much more competitive than the current thinking has it.
Of course there is every possibility that they will fade away again, 2 professional teams only one of which seem to be competitive at any given time, but Townsend has a good record at pro12 level so who knows....

I have no doubt that Scotland will continue to improve, but that shouldn't matter as long as Ireland also continues to improve.

We need strength in depth and if our game-plan relies on a handful of 'key players' being fit, then it's the wrong game-plan for a a grueling world cup where injuries are inevitable.

jr86

Akrasia wrote: »

I have no doubt that Scotland will continue to improve, but that shouldn't matter as long as Ireland also continues to improve.

We need strength in depth and if our game-plan relies on a handful of 'key players' being fit, then it's the wrong game-plan for a a grueling world cup where injuries are inevitable.

If anything Ireland have remained stagnant at best since the last RWC though, while Scotland, England and France are all improving

Our main issue will be consistency. The layout of the Group Draw could be very interesting. We seldom win two "big" matches in a row these days so it'd be great get the Scotland game early

dadad231

dadad231 wrote: »

Sorry its an ignorant opinion, I just wouldn't have thought they would be naturally built for Rugby.

Yeah totally agree. And when you consider their national sport you would wonder where they got lads big enough to play rugby.

Buer

Akrasia wrote: »

I have no doubt that Scotland will continue to improve, but that shouldn't matter as long as Ireland also continues to improve.

I'd have a real doubt that they'll continue to improve. I reckon they'll gain an initial lift from Townsend's arrival but after that, they'll stagnate. Changing coach at this point is madness.

I think Townsend is very overrated as a coach and was heavily reliant on a couple of players at Glasgow, mainly Nakarawa who was central to their game plan. 5 seasons at Glasgow and they made it out of their ECC pool once which was due to Racing and Leicester rolling over.

Their depth is also paper thin in critical positions as shown by Fagerson in the 6N. They'll be in a bad spot if Russell gets injured too.

They're capable of beating us on their day but we really should be looking to beat them with room to spare.

kuang1

Buer wrote: »

I'd have a real doubt that they'll continue to improve. I reckon they'll gain an initial lift from Townsend's arrival but after that, they'll stagnate. Changing coach at this point is madness.

I think Townsend is very overrated as a coach and was heavily reliant on a couple of players at Glasgow, mainly Nakarawa who was central to their game plan. 5 seasons at Glasgow and they made it out of their ECC pool once which was due to Racing and Leicester rolling over.

Their depth is also paper thin in critical positions as shown by Fagerson in the 6N. They'll be in a bad spot if Russell gets injured too.

They're capable of beating us on their day but we really should be looking to beat them with room to spare.

100% agree.

Scotlands result in Twickenham this year is a true reflection of where they are.
Japan will be tougher opponents than Scotland come the world cup imo.

padser

PTH2009 wrote: »

Scotland cud beat us early in the pool and Japan will be looking to beat us for a QF place

Still 2.5 years is still a while away and who knows who the power houses of rugby will be then

Sure, anything is possible obviously.

However some things are pretty unlikely. Ireland are 1/100 on to qualify from the group, Scotland are 1/5 on to qualify and Japan are 3/1 against. So, the only reasonably plausible route for Japan to the QF is by beating Scotland.

Now sometimes highly unlikely things happen (Leicester winning the premiership for example) but pretty rarely.

We say we don't know who the power houses of rugby will be in 2019, but we can be pretty sure they wouldn't include Scotland and virtualy certain they wouldn't include Japan.

The reality is Ireland are probably about two times more likely to win the WC outright then to lose the pool match against Japan (although neither are particularly likely to happen).

It's easy to get caught up in the hype of "anything can happen" but I'm not sure what purpose it serves

bilston

Let's not worry about anyone else and let's think about ourselves.

How much change will there be in the squad between now and 2019.

Best will likely be gone, Ryan has most likely put himself out of contention, Trimble will probably have departed and there would have to be doubts around Heaslip and Payne, but if fit they should still be around. Sexton and O'Brien's injury profile would pose a few question marks but they should be still be available.

On the flip side by 2019 the likes of Ringrose, Carbery and JVDF etc will be more experienced and the expectation is that kids like James Ryan and Jacob Stockdale will be fully integrated into the squad.

The big one for me is the form and fitness of Jonny Sexton, he'll be 33 I think so we will have to see. Without him life could be tougher. Hopefully Jackson revels in his new role as Ulster's chief playmaker bow and Carbery and Byrne continue their education and get better so we can cope in the event of Sexton not being there or being as good as he is now.

The Lost Sheep

is there any other thread for discussing world cup qualifying games??

I suppose here will do. Of the 83 countries who entered the qualifying process 48 are left competing for 7 places through the 5 regions and then the final spot in the repechage.

Kind of disappointing for the first world cup in Asia only 10 Asian countries entered the qualifying stages of the world cup.

The first round of the South American championships was today. Chile beat Brazil 15-10 while Uruguay lead Paraguay by 30+ well into the second half. Each country plays each other over the next 2 weeks with the winner of this group facing whoever loses the two legged playoff between Canada and the United States which will be played June 24th and July 1st.

Th winner of the playoff between South American champions and loser of Canada/US enters the repechage for final world cup spot.

Another 3 sides will be knocked out of the european stages of qualifying over the next two weeks as Hungary face Bosnia and Czech Republic face Malta next weekend with the winners facing off the following weekend with the winner of that game going on to face Portugal, who won european nations trophy, in a one off game in November.

Erik Shin

Fairly comprehensive report there LS, thanks for that....Would love to see Malta get thru....They've worked bloody hard on the game over the last 10 years and it would be nice to see them get a shot