I bet you didnt know that

Chancer3001

Conchir wrote: »

Freshwater pearl mussel is Ireland’s longest-lived animal, capable of living up to 130 years, and with the oldest confirmed example over 200 years (though not an Irish specimen).

The greenland shark can be 100s of years old.

They reckon one was 800 years old they found lately

RiderOnTheStorm

Reading about Mr Churchil above, and his No 2 Commando unit reminded me ....

Why is that area in Dublin callet The 40 Foot? (fond memories of swimming there btw)
Its got nothing to do with 'foot' being a measure of length. Instead there was a British military garrison nearby and the cove was a favourite swimming spot. The British forces dont use 'st' or 'th' when calling the name of their units. eg its 1 Para (pronounced One Para, not 1st Para), 20 Ranger (not twentieth ranger), etc. The garrison nearby way the 40 Regiment of Foot (iirc).

Fourier

Alanna Thousands Valley wrote: »

The coin (over 'large' datasets) does indeed average out very close to 50:50.
Many (slow, boring) trials have already been done to support it such as:

Trust me it's not as clear cut as you think. It's very hard to defend probability as anything other than a betting weight in our heads rather than something out there in the world. As I said, if you learn more about the coin, then conditioned on that you'd change it to 90:10, it's no longer 50:50.

If you want I can discuss this on the math forum, but if you want to read up on it I'd have a read of the works of Edwin Thompson Jaynes and Bruno de Finetti.

housetypeb

Accumulator
Quote:
The coin (over 'large' datasets) does indeed average out very close to 50:50.
Many (slow, boring) trials have already been done to support it such as:

Fourier wrote: »

Trust me it's not as clear cut as you think. It's very hard to defend probability as anything other than a betting weight in our heads rather than something out there in the world. As I said, if you learn more about the coin, then conditioned on that you'd change it to 90:10, it's no longer 50:50.

"Who shall decide when doctors disagree, And soundest casuists doubt, like you and me?"
Alexander Pope

Realt Dearg Sec

Fourier wrote: »

Alanna Thousands Valley wrote: »

The coin (over 'large' datasets) does indeed average out very close to 50:50.
Many (slow, boring) trials have already been done to support it such as:

Trust me it's not as clear cut as you think. It's very hard to defend probability as anything other than a betting weight in our heads rather than something out there in the world. As I said, if you learn more about the coin, then conditioned on that you'd change it to 90:10, it's no longer 50:50.

If you want I can discuss this on the maths forum, but if you want to read up on it I'd have a read of the works of Edwin Thompson Jaynes and Bruno de Finetti. Their works are the main reason mathematicians don't view probability the way you're talking about (known formally as Frequentism)

Is this just a problem with the coin? I presume we are using the coin as a kind of easily visualisable image of a one or the other situation. If it was a random number generator that could send up a 1 or a 0 each time would that be closer to what we're describing as heads or tails?

4068ac1elhodqr

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

Is this just a problem with the coin? I presume we are using the coin as a kind of easily visualisable image of a one or the other situation. If it was a random number generator that could send up a 1 or a 0 each time would that be closer to what we're describing as heads or tails?

Agree and assuming an average array of coins, there surely can't be that much difference in any coin relief design to influence greatly (90:10 as suggested) it's landing side. Considering the energy, mass, speed, velocity or what have you, associated with random nature of coin flips.

Fourier would seem to deny the law of large^ numbers if suggesting 90:10.

The coin flip can be applied to dice rolls or lotto balls. Yes (very) high varaince with small samples <100 or so, ^but over 'thousands' of rolls/throws/picks the average gets closer to 50:50 than the suggested 90:10.

Popular TV trickster Derren Brown got x10 heads in a row, but it took a full days filming (pity the poor film crew) and maybe 1-2,000 flips.

4068ac1elhodqr

Young, cheery, pop singer 'Anne-Marie' (xmas number 1's and recent duo with Ed Sherry)
- is also a 'triple-time Karate 空手道 World Champion'.

Fourier

Alanna Thousands Valley wrote: »

Fourier would seem to deny the law of large^ numbers if suggesting 90:10.

No just talking about conditionalising, also remember the law of large numbers itself doesn't say there will be a 50:50 ratio (what it says is slightly different for weak vs strong) and it's a theorem that follows from probabilities so you can't use it to explain what probability means.

This stuff actually has a pretty strong pragmatic effects, taking a frequentist view can affect measures of how effective a drug is or psychological experiments. There's a few interesting papers showing it affecting gender studies.

I'll start a thread on the Maths forum based off Realt Dearg Sec's post.

4068ac1elhodqr

Fourier wrote: »

I'll start a thread on the Maths forum based off Realt Dearg Sec's post.

My only real interest in the LoLN/probability, is predicting a few Euromillion lotto numbers. Was using x20 variables at one stage, have now just settled for a few factors on Pick2/3.

Yes essentially each ball has an equal chance of appearing, but could there be a suggestion that the Law of Large Numbers may offer about +0.5% (or even more) (P)robability advantage?

The folks in Vegas sure don't like card counters at the BlackJack table.

mikhail

Alanna Thousands Valley wrote: »

The folks in Vegas sure don't like card counters at the BlackJack table.

Card counters wouldn't be effective if the previously drawn cards were shuffled back into the deck. That is not the same thing at all.

DEFTLEFTHAND

Theoretically any Catholic male is eligible to be elected Pope.



One does not have to be an ordained member of the Church.




Obviously in practice the chances of this occuring in the modern era are slim to none.




It has happened in the past though, plenty of Lay Pontiffs in history.

764dak

Maths again:
Almost never means having a 0% probability but still being possible. Almost surely means have a 100% probability but still possible of not happening.

quokula

quickbeam wrote: »

Another one is Benford's Law. You'd think that of all the numbers in the world, they'd all have an equal likelihood of appearing in everyday life. Eg, the 10,000 numbers between 1 and 10,000 should all have a 1 in 10,000 chance of appearing, ie the number 1,899 would have the same chance as the number 8,199 (say).

But no, Benford's Law states that numbers beginning with lower digits have a far higher chance of appearing than those of lower digits. 1,899 more often than 8,199. But 18,990 also more often than 8,199.

Benford's Law doesn't state that numbers with lower first digits are more likely, but simply that lower first digits are more likely, which is a small but important difference. This is because there is almost always more numbers starting with a lower digit in a given data set.

E.g. if there is a 1 in 1500 chance, then [1,10-19,100-199,1000-1500] all start with 1, but only [8,80-89,800-899] start with 8 - so you've a much higher chance of a number starting with 1 than a number starting with 8, but you don't have a higher chance of any particular number like 189 compared to 891.

In your specific example of 1-10,000 then the chances of it beginning with 1 or 8 are nearly identical (they would be identical for 1-9,999), but the law is based on observations in the real world where the range is not defined and is very unlikely to be a precise round number like that.

quickbeam

quokula wrote: »

Benford's Law doesn't state that numbers with lower first digits are more likely, but simply that lower first digits are more likely, which is a small but important difference. This is because there is almost always more numbers starting with a lower digit in a given data set.

E.g. if there is a 1 in 1500 chance, then [1,10-19,100-199,1000-1500] all start with 1, but only [8,80-89,800-899] start with 8 - so you've a much higher chance of a number starting with 1 than a number starting with 8, but you don't have a higher chance of any particular number like 189 compared to 891.

In your specific example of 1-10,000 then the chances of it beginning with 1 or 8 are nearly identical (they would be identical for 1-9,999), but the law is based on observations in the real world where the range is not defined and is very unlikely to be a precise round number like that.

I agree. I explained it poorly to start with but the above is what I meant.

sbsquarepants

Alanna Thousands Valley wrote: »

Young, cheery, pop singer 'Anne-Marie' (xmas number 1's and recent duo with Ed Sherry)
- is also a 'triple-time Karate 空手道 World Champion'.

No way, she is fairly chiselled though now that you mention it!

GBX

The town of Büsingen am Hochrhein is a German town completely surrounded by Switzerland. It doesn't use the Euro - it unofficially uses the Swiss Franc.

BaZmO*

GBX wrote: »

The town of Büsingen am Hochrhein is a German town completely surrounded by Switzerland. It doesn't use the Euro - it unofficially uses the Swiss Franc.

That's a bit like the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. It is bordered by Lithuania, Poland and the Baltic Sea.

Water John

Funny how these enclaves have developed over the years in many countries. It also occurs at local level, with a few townlands of one parish completely enclosed by another parish.

bauney

Did you know the following image of Dinosaur when you have no internet connection is an actual game?

NoConnection.PNG

It took me years to figure that out. I told my other half recently and she found it hilarious as she never knew either.

New Home

On what browser?

bauney

Chrome at least.

sbsquarepants

quokula wrote: »

Benford's Law doesn't state that numbers with lower first digits are more likely, but simply that lower first digits are more likely, which is a small but important difference. This is because there is almost always more numbers starting with a lower digit in a given data set.

An every day (kind of:D) application is in screening for things like bogus insurance claims, dodgy financial reports and so on.
If the numbers involved tend not to follow this law it's seen as cause for further investigation as they may be entirely fictitious.

The oldest ceramic item known is the Venus of Dolni Vestonice, a fired clay statue from the Czech Republic which is estimated to be 26,000 years old. Europe as a continent is considered to have generally been aceramic until about 8,000 years ago when the first pots and vessels appeared, but the ceramic idols and statues that date much further back indicate that art was the first consideration of the materials potential, and it must have been a bit of a lightbulb moment when someone finally wondered if a ceramic bowl would come in handy.

The very first simple fired-clay ceramics are what we now call earthenware, and the quality varied as much as the clay available. Clay is a combination of aluminum oxide, silicon dioxide and water, and the proportion of each ingredient is what determines the quality, as well as the timing and temperature of the firing. Fire clay long enough and hot enough, and you will have a material partially or fully vitrified - it will take on some of the characteristics of glass, be less porous, more robust, and will appear glossier than a clay fired at lower temps/for lesser time. Earthenware is the simplest and earliest form of ceramic, and it's rarely used for anything other than decorative items because of it's comparative fragility.

Stoneware is a similar but more refined material where a finer clay is used and a thinner and finer material can be made and fired at a higher temperature, making it more robust and less porous. The addition of a glaze reduces the porosity and glazed stoneware is readily available as dinnerware and decorative ceramics.

The Chinese had the secret ingredient that brought us porcelain, a fine grained and smooth clay from the central village of Kaolin, where the method of making fine ceramics was perfected using soft paste clays and advanced kilns that fired to higher temperatures than ever before. What we call china or fine china was first made here and exported all over the world, and some of the finest examples of decorative pottery comes from early Chinese potters utilizing soft-paste kaolin based porcelain. The firing temperatures and vitrification made the kaolin based ceramics the thinnest, strongest and least porous of any to date, and it was sought after the world over. It could take fine glazes and as coloured glazes were developed the decorative possibilities expanded exponentially.

The only thing that usurped it's place as the finest of ceramic materials was the inclusion of bone ash, and the ash that is added to the porcelain recipe (between 25 - 40%) is what gives us so-called Bone China, fine china ceramic material so fine and thin that it's translucent enough to see through. I inherited some recently that I'm slightly afraid to use, it's so fine and delicate.

There are unsubstantiated claims that during the Cultural Revolution the shortage of cow bone led to the ash of cremated human bones being included in the production of bone china.

So the moral of the story is that porcelain is fine, but fine china porcelain and in particular bone china is something else that vegans need to avoid.

And speaking of kaolin clay, it was important long before it was used in ceramics.

Kaolin clay naturally occurs in hot, wet climates and is used for various health and cosmetic applications as well as in the manufacture of ceramics. It's use is common in traditional Chinese medicine as well as Ayurvedic medicine and with traditional Asian and African healers.

The clay is mixed with water and used for degreasing hair (it absorbs as it dries), as a drying mask for clearing the pores, to reduce the itch from things like bites or chickenpox, as a 'dry' shower by using the dry clay to scrub your body clean, for toilet hygiene, and as a deodorant powder. Most commercially available mud face masks will contain kaolin.

It's used dry by traditional healers on weeping wounds to draw out infection, packed into open wounds to keep them clean and to aid healing, and even swallowed in water to soothe tummy issues like diarrhoea, and to absorb accidentally ingested toxins. It's anti inflammatory properties make it popular as an ulcer treatment, and hot clay poultices are used to reduce aches and pains in arthritic joints.

And speaking of tummy issues, the term for those grumbling, rumbling tummy sounds is borborgymi. If you get enough borborgymi, it could be because you're suffering from meteorism, and if your meteorism is bad enough you could wind up with tympanites.

Nobody wants tympanities*.






If your tummy is growling it could be an excess of gas, and if you have enough gas your tummy could distend like a drum. Nobody wants a tummy like a drum.

Capt'n Midnight

Candie wrote: »

There are unsubstantiated claims that during the Cultural Revolution the shortage of cow bone led to the ash of cremated human bones being included in the production of bone china.

During the early days of Railways in Egypt they burned Mummies for fuel

mzungu

Hewlett-Packard's (also known as HP) name was decided by coin toss.

It was a choice between the hyphenation of the founders last names so the coin was tossed to decide between Hewlett-Packard and Packard-Hewlett.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

During the early days of Railways in Egypt they burned Mummies for fuel

Mummy brown pigment, much favoured by pre-Raphaelite painters, was originally made in the 16th and 17th centuries from white pitch, myrrh, and the ground-up remains of Egyptian mummies, both human and feline.

TomSweeney

DEFTLEFTHAND wrote: »

Yes. The company was founded in the 1800s and has been involved in a vast array of different ventures in its history.

Paper mills, rubber products, hospital equipment.

My first VCR was by ITT Nokia ... (around 1990)

Chancer3001

Whenever I read stuff like that bone China thing I remember how a really useless I'd be if I travelled back in time.

All id have is good geography and know that America was there! Maybe emphasise how important sanitation is.

But I couldn't help in any practical ways.