Property Market 2017

Samuel T. Cogley

handlemaster wrote: »

When was the last time your apt was this price ? How many years after did it go to 250k

Height of the boom (2006) and we over paid ALOT! :pac:

lcwill

handlemaster wrote: »

What are they at the moment 160k ?

Just had a look at Daft and there are 18 1 beds including a couple of cottages in D8 and average price overall is 199,383. Only one below 160

gebbel

My cousin just went sale agreed on a bog standard 2 bed apartment in a gated complex at Derrynane Square, Dorset Street. €275K for the apartment plus one space. He didn't expect it to go so high. I'm very familiar with the development. I'd be pleased myself. Location rules.

waxon-waxoff

gebbel wrote: »

My cousin just went sale agreed on a bog standard 2 bed apartment in a gated complex at Derrynane Square, Dorset Street. €275K for the apartment plus one space. He didn't expect it to go so high. I'm very familiar with the development. I'd be pleased myself. Location rules.

Thats good money for the area. That sets a useful benchmark for valuing city apartments. Im guessing it needs another €10 -15k to bring it up to date? Thats a good location for renting, especially for hospital workers. But.... you need a tough skin to live in that part of Dublin and Derrynane fronts onto a very busy road.

pilly

gebbel wrote:

My cousin just went sale agreed on a bog standard 2 bed apartment in a gated complex at Derrynane Square, Dorset Street. €275K for the apartment plus one space. He didn't expect it to go so high. I'm very familiar with the development. I'd be pleased myself. Location rules.

I wouldn't call Dorset Street a good location? Very rough.

gebbel

pilly wrote: »

I wouldn't call Dorset Street a good location? Very rough.

It's a city centre location. Dorset street not as bad as it used to be. Certainly when I was a student 20 years ago. He was renting it to nurses working in the Mater private just up the road before selling. €1600 per calendar month it was achieving. Needs a bit of upgrading. You wouldn't swing a cat in the kitchen, it could probably do with a new one to be honest. I reckon 10 grand for that including the white goods. None of the rooms ensuite. Common areas are well maintained. But they'd want to be at €1500 per annum for the service charges.

By the way his apartment has a side entrance off Innisfallen Parade so not fronting onto Dorset Street if that makes a difference.

The_Conductor

pilly wrote: »

I wouldn't call Dorset Street a good location? Very rough.

I'd be inclined to agree on that one- however, if its a gated community- there is an element of security you'd not have in general in the area. That said- the price achieved is far higher than I'd have thought possible for a 2 bed in the area- goes to show what scarscity of supply and a relaxation of lending rules is doing to the market..........

trobbin

I know lots of people trying to buy ATM. Anyway, a couple I know have been bidding on a house advertised at €280k. Houses on same road and identical where struggling to get €160k 3yrs ago. The bidding on this house has gone to €320k. It's also in a really bad state of condition.

I actually know the EA dealing with the house, I called him for a chat and he said, it's full throttle. He said it's all FTB'ers and all in certain ranges. He reckons once the price gets over a certain level they all disappear, but they'll give everything they can up to the point they just can't reach anymore.

Told me he's calling couples that've been outbid, and they're running back to the bank begging for loan to be increased so they can counter the bid.

I don't care what anyone says, but this is a horrible situation.

He also said there's not as high a demand for higher priced houses, and the people bidding on them seem a lot more reserved and reluctant to get into bidding wars. He reckons higher priced houses have already levelled off in Dublin.

Just adding some recent conversations with people relevant to the property market 2017

zl1whqvjs75cdy

Where does it end though? I was in with kbc last week and they told me that the market is absolutely flooded with buyers in the 280 to 380 range. Above that it gets a bit better apparently. But ftb can only stretch so far. What happens when everyone is priced out?

Can't rent, as that's nearly worse than buying at the moment, and the level of house building is still absolutely pathetic. It's incredibly frustrating.

Samuel T. Cogley

It's got quite away to go before everyone is priced out though. An example is the 3 bed 112sqm. house in Kilbarrack at the moment for under 200K. D12 still has some affordable housing also. When this and 1 beds take off then we're know we're in trouble again. D15, D11 have some way to go (in parts) too.

ThisRegard

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

What happens when everyone is priced out?

Prices will adjust to the market. If nobody is buying at those prices then they'll​ adjust to the price they will sell at.

Yourself isit

"Priced out" depends on credit availability and deposit limits. We'd probably have reached peak now were it not for government interference to "help" first time buyers.

Samuel T. Cogley

ThisRegard wrote: »

Prices will adjust to the market. If nobody is buying at those prices then they'll​ adjust to the price they will sell at.

Yourself isit wrote: »

"Priced out" depends on credit availability and deposit limits. We'd probably have reached peak now were it not for government interference to "help" first time buyers.

This sums up the dysfunction so well. I'm not having a pop or even disagreeing with either of you. I just liked the timing!

trobbin

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

It's got quite away to go before everyone is priced out though. An example is the 3 bed 112sqm. house in Kilbarrack at the moment for under 200K. D12 still has some affordable housing also. When this and 1 beds take off then we're know we're in trouble again. D15, D11 have some way to go (in parts) too.

Could you provide some links to those fantasy homes in Kilbarrack please. Not trying to be smart, but that's just not true.

If it was the case, and they where selling for under €200k, I would call that a reasonable home for a reasonable price

trobbin

donkeyoaty0099 wrote: »

Where does it end though? I was in with kbc last week and they told me that the market is absolutely flooded with buyers in the 280 to 380 range. Above that it gets a bit better apparently. But ftb can only stretch so far. What happens when everyone is priced out?

Can't rent, as that's nearly worse than buying at the moment, and the level of house building is still absolutely pathetic. It's incredibly frustrating.

Thats interesting. I know one or two people and I've been told market is flooded with joint applicants up to the amount of €300k and after that it's looking a lot tighter. Then going above €350k is a much smaller pool of people in comparison to asking prices.

That's just figures I've got from one excellent source in-particular.

Either way with figures you've heard of then what I've heard of, plus the asking prices, and no sign of major salary increases. I think we're at the peak?

IMO, we would be above 2007 prices if banks allowed borrowers to do their thing!

Samuel T. Cogley

trobbin wrote: »

Could you provide some links to those fantasy homes in Kilbarrack please. Not trying to be smart, but that's just not true.

If it was the case, and they where selling for under €200k, I would call that a reasonable home for a reasonable price

Home not homes, the specificity of the first part of my post might have given that away.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/11-st-berachs-place-kilbarrack-dublin-5/3866752

However the issue is yes that's what a lot of people think (200K for 112sq m.) that's simply an unrealistic expectation in a major city, be it Dublin, Manchester or Edinburgh.

trobbin

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Home not homes, the specificity of the first part of my post might have given that away.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/11-st-berachs-place-kilbarrack-dublin-5/3866752

However the issue is yes that's what a lot of people think (200K for 112sq m.) that's simply an unrealistic expectation in a major city, be it Dublin, Manchester or Edinburgh.

You're taking the pistachio? That's not a house, that state of that thing. In fairness though that's a huge extension on the back.

Another thing, that hole will sell for over €200k in this climate, and that's sad. Would you not agree?

Samuel T. Cogley

trobbin wrote: »

You're taking the pistachio? That's not a house, that state of that thing. In fairness though that's a huge extension on the back.

Another thing, that hole will sell for over €200k in this climate, and that's sad. Would you not agree?

No but it seems you are.

Also I would not agree. I know the area very well indeed and although I probably wouldn't have bought that house for a working class family starting out, with a bit of TLC that place is a bargain.

trobbin

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

No but it seems you are.

Also I would not agree. I know the area very well indeed and although I probably wouldn't have bought that house for a working class family starting out, with a bit of TLC that place is a bargain.

Believe me pal, I am not! That's a dive.

I also know the area. Why is that a bargain for a working class family? Is that the type of house working class people should be living in? Kilbarrack was always a working class area, with a lot of poverty. Now the ex council 3 beds are €300k. You might think that's a bargain, but I don't. It's not easy for a working class family to repay that amount and live a life, with all life brings.

People need to realise a mortgage shouldn't be everything u can afford, life has other costs.

It probably is a bargain to you, in comparison to this one bedroom apartment you're always crying about.

Samuel T. Cogley

trobbin wrote: »

Believe me pal, I am not! That's a dive.

I also know the area. Why is that a bargain for a working class family? Is that the type of house working class people should be living in? Kilbarrack was always a working class area, with a lot of poverty. Now the ex council 3 beds are €300k. You might think that's a bargain, but I don't. It's not easy for a working class family to repay that amount and live a life, with all life brings.

People need to realise a mortgage shouldn't be everything u can afford, life has other costs.

It probably is a bargain to you, in comparison to this one bedroom apartment you're always crying about.

The area is fine, admittedly it's hardly the nicest looking place but it's perfectly reasonable inside, a C1 rating and has a small garden. As a starter home it's fine. What makes it a bargain is it's 3 minutes from the DART and the price reflects the look.

200-300K the prices houses are currently selling for in Kilbarrack and other areas of Dublin are still affordable to working class couples. Your own snobbery might prevent you from wanting to live there. That's your problem frankly... Mate.

trobbin

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

The area is fine, admittedly it's hardly the nicest looking place but it's perfectly reasonable inside, a C1 rating and has a small garden. As a starter home it's fine. What makes it a bargain is it's 3 minutes from the DART and the price reflects the look.

200-300K the prices houses are currently selling for in Kilbarrack and other areas of Dublin are still affordable to working class couples. Your own snobbery might prevent you from wanting to live there. That's your problem frankly... Mate.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not too snobby to live in Kilbarrack, I just genuinely think that property you linked is a decrepit looking little thing, and I feel sorry for the people buying it.

Samuel T. Cogley

trobbin wrote: »

Don't get me wrong, I'm not too snobby to live in Kilbarrack, I just genuinely think that property you linked is a decrepit looking little thing, and I feel sorry for the people buying it.

Fair enough, I concede not the most des res in Dublin but it's not a dive either in fairness and I do also see where people are coming from on cheap housing should absolutely be a priority when at the ballot box.

py

trobbin wrote: »

He also said there's not as high a demand for higher priced houses, and the people bidding on them seem a lot more reserved and reluctant to get into bidding wars. He reckons higher priced houses have already levelled off in Dublin.

Certainly not what I'm seeing in the 400-600k price range for the 2nd hand market in Dublin 14/16. Anything we've seen is going above asking, sometimes 10-20% higher. Bidding seems to be going up in 5k increments above 500k. While I know the market has got a little hotter, I'm assuming it's down to the new calendar year and the banks have reset their exception limit... will know in a few months time whether it's that or not as these run out.

trobbin

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/firsttime-home-buyers-warned-they-are-at-risk-of-a-new-debt-trap-35565678.html

AsianDub

py wrote: »

Certainly not what I'm seeing in the 400-600k price range for the 2nd hand market in Dublin 14/16. Anything we've seen is going above asking, sometimes 10-20% higher. Bidding seems to be going up in 5k increments above 500k. While I know the market has got a little hotter, I'm assuming it's down to the new calendar year and the banks have reset their exception limit... will know in a few months time whether it's that or not as these run out.

I would echo this in some parts of Dublin 5/9

Samuel T. Cogley

AsianDub wrote: »

I would echo this in some parts of Dublin 5/9

In D5 look a few streets over.

karenalot

House prices rise by average 4.3% - https://www.rte.ie/news/economy/2017/0402/864526-house-prices-surge-in-the-first-three-months-of-year/

House prices rose by an average of 4.3% during the first three months of 2017, the largest three-month increase in two years, according to the latest House Price Report released today by property website, Daft.ie.

The increase means that the national average list price during the first three months of the year was €230,000, 9.4% higher compared to last year and over €65,000 higher than its lowest point.

House prices will soar to Celtic Tiger levels 'in three years' - http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/house-prices-will-soar-to-celtic-tiger-levels-in-three-years-35586262.html

A lack of housing stock and government interference are driving property prices back to the heady days of the Celtic Tiger, new figures released today show.
House prices rose nationally by more than 4pc in the first three months of this year, but Dublin is racing ahead of the rest of the country with prices expected to reach peak levels again in three years.

Ireland not heading for another property boom, says Coveney - http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/ireland-not-heading-for-another-property-boom-says-coveney-1.3034693

The Government is not going to allow a situation where people are allowed to borrow “ridiculous amounts of money” to buy houses as happened during the so-called Celtic Tiger period, Minister for Housing Simon Coveney has said.
He was responding on Monday to two new reports which show house price inflation picked up significantly in the first three months of the year, making the return to double-digit growth more likely.

Browney7

<deleted quote snipped>

And the fact that we own a fair chunk of the banking sector which we are looking to sell and thousands of people vastly overpaid for property in the mid 2000's and the only way to "fix" this is to get the next generation to pay big money for their places.

OfflerCrocGod

Or maybe there is just a shortage of housing in urban areas and the economy is recovering allowing prices to increase again.

Samuel T. Cogley

OfflerCrocGod wrote: »

Or maybe there is just a shortage of housing in urban areas and the economy is recovering allowing prices to increase again.

It's more than that and Coveney's comments annoyed me I must say. His and prevailing logic seems to be that there 'is no bubble' because 'we're controlling lending', a great case of 'post hoc ergo proctor hoc' for the West Wing fans amongst you.

Yeah that's great apart from during the crunch, actually many people managed to remain in employment and were saving because we couldn't do anything else. There was no property available, people couldn't sell due to neg equity, there was no lending and jobs, although hung on to, were precarious.

2014/2015 onwards rocks around and property starts to become available, still (AFAIK) at relatively low levels. So although pricing is recovering the market hasn't - I'm open to correction there on transaction volumes. People with very large deposits because of (albeit reduced) equity in their homes, large pots of savings and the ability to get mortgages has caused a housing bubble, despite very right and proper sensible lending policies.

I just can't workout how it's no profitable to build in certain areas at the moment. This needs to start now or it will be years before supply comes on stream.