Property Market 2017

hometruths

lcwill wrote: »

Just checked precisely and the window for the CGT exemption was 7 December 2011 to 31 December 2015 so probably won't actually really be relevant until 2019.

Are you sure? Seems to be some saying it ended December 2014 and others saying 2015

edit just found it - ended Dec 2104 for sure

flintash

handlemaster wrote:

The interest in this thread compared with previous years however small is also telling.

cause you looking in the wrong thread. Check out popular "2017 help to buy" thread, plenty of action.

willbeuptuesday

willbeuptuesday wrote: »

Having seen all the media reports regarding the rate of increase in property prices both in Dublin and nationally I was under the impression that they are rising steadily but not at Celtic Tiger pace. A couple of houses sold in my estate in Lucan Dublin recently which achieved according to the Property Price Register above 10% of the asking price. All this activity took place in the last quarter of 2016. A house across the road from mine which is a nice house, 3 bed semi detached, went on the market at 325K (normally houses are valued at 300K but this house has an extended kitchen and garage built on which explains the higher value). Aside from those features it is the same as any other house in the estate. In the past two Saturdays at least 200 people have been to view this property (this is an estimate but I promise I am not far off) and this property is currently under offer at 350K, this is an unbelievable increase in the first month of the year. Are the media and experts getting it wrong again and are we heading for trouble also has anyone else similar experiences.

This house closed at 374K that is some jump in a month, is this an anomaly or have we misread the market?

The_Conductor

willbeuptuesday wrote: »

This house closed at 374K that is some jump in a month, is this an anomaly or have we misread the market?

Lack of supply more than anything else to be honest.
There are several estates in Lucan- which are consistently achieving prices in the region you're talking- and indeed a few estates which achieve a multiple- think of Hawkridge, Rokeby etc. Others which were prestigious addresses at one time (Laraghcon etc) no-longer are- with several properties let out to students and interns (there are an improbable number of Intel interns in Laraghcon).

kala85

If supply improves over the next two to three years will the prices come down or at least stabilise at a certain level.

athtrasna

kala85 wrote: »

If supply improves over the next two to three years will the prices come down or at least stabilise at a certain level.

Impossible to predict what other forces may affect the market.

lcwill

schmittel wrote: »

Are you sure? Seems to be some saying it ended December 2014 and others saying 2015

edit just found it - ended Dec 2104 for sure

You're right, not sure where I got 2015 from then.

Samuel T. Cogley

kala85 wrote: »

If supply improves over the next two to three years will the prices come down or at least stabilise at a certain level.

That or they'll go up and or stabilise at a certain level, or not. :pac:

If you're worrying about leaping, there's never a good time, just some spectacularly bad ones. If you can afford a two/three bed house in a reasonable are go for it. If it's a one bed apartment or some ghetto like Kilbarrack* avoid!

*That's a little joke for our esteemed mod. Kilbarrack is grand.

lambchop22

Almost three months into 2017, I'd be interested to hear any views on the impact of the Help to Buy scheme and the change in the CB's mortgage restrictions for FTBs on the property market in Dublin. Market for apartments seems buoyant at the moment.

The_Conductor

lambchop22 wrote: »

Almost three months into 2017, I'd be interested to hear any views on the impact of the Help to Buy scheme and the change in the CB's mortgage restrictions for FTBs on the property market in Dublin. Market for apartments seems buoyant at the moment.

The relaxation of the Central Bank rules- mean there is demand for second hand property- even from FTBs- despite the government grant only applying to new properties. Volume of property on the market continues to be severely subdued- with some areas featuring total property droughts (particularly in Galway City and most of the Dublin local authority areas- Cork may be a little better than it was last year- some areas- such as Mayfield appear to have greater availability).

The big difference in a Dublin context- is apartments which were of little interest to most buyers- are being snapped up- at increasing rates- for the simple reason, there is damn all else available.

Price rises in second hand property- while it is increasing- its severely subdued in comparison to the stratospheric increases in the prices of new property.

After the ECBs statement this week- it is suggested that Irish and Italian banks in particular- will be forced by their respective Central Banks to come up with viable and valid mechanisms for clearing up non-performing loans. In an Irish context- its thought this may well percipitate up to 30k properties being forceably sold over the next 24 months- with an instruction to get a move on before the end of this year- when QE officially ends.

So- more of the same- for the next 9 months or so- and then a bit of a liquidity crunch come Q1-Q2 2018- interest rates to remain low (in the medium term)- but retail finance may become significantly more difficult to access...........

lcwill

lambchop22 wrote: »

Almost three months into 2017, I'd be interested to hear any views on the impact of the Help to Buy scheme and the change in the CB's mortgage restrictions for FTBs on the property market in Dublin. Market for apartments seems buoyant at the moment.

An apartment has just gone sale agreed for double what I paid for a similar apartment in the same building in early 2013 (D8/Christchurch area), and apparently it was bought by an investor so not directly related to HtB or mortgage restriction changes.

willbeuptuesday

I was speaking to an estate agent I know through football and we got talking about the market in Lucan where he works, he said his firm had predicted a 7-10% increase for 2017 in Dublin but he has seen 10% in the first 3 months alone! He told me that most were 1st time buyers and they were not waiting for the grant to purchase new homes because that limited their options to only new builds as well as the fact that if they were to wait for new houses the 20k would only be added to the purchase price by the time the house comes to the market. He said it currently is as bad as the boom times. I hope we are not making the same mistakes as before and God help those trying to buy today.

The_Conductor

willbeuptuesday wrote: »

I was speaking to an estate agent I know through football and we got talking about the market in Lucan where he works, he said his firm had predicted a 7-10% increase for 2017 in Dublin but he has seen 10% in the first 3 months alone! He told me that most were 1st time buyers and they were not waiting for the grant to purchase new homes because that limited their options to only new builds as well as the fact that if they were to wait for new houses the 20k would only be added to the purchase price by the time the house comes to the market. He said it currently is as bad as the boom times. I hope we are not making the same mistakes as before and God help those trying to buy today.

Yup- its boom times all over- and its being predominantly driven by FTBs (until prices rise sufficiently- most everyone else is stuck).

Vis-a-vis Lucan prices- they are rocketting- yes, but from a low base.

E.g. this one - a two bed in this development sold for a hundred thousand less, only a year ago. A three bed- sold last summer for 200k. However- during the boom- while these didn't change hands often- they were valued at 480k for the 3 beds, and 410k for the 2 beds. I.e. the Lucan recovery in secondhand prices- is a function of the fact that a lot of developments in the greater Lucan area- fell by a lot more during the recession than did some other locations- and are recovering now- but are still percentage wise down on where some other locations have recovered to.......

Also- looking at DAFT- it has 94 properties of a min 2 bed, down for Lucan. The last time it had this volume- was in 2006. People *are* making judgement calls and selling.

Re: the example I used above- I've lived in the development since it was built in 1996- and find it a useful barometer of whats happening. I also went to school with the brother and sister who run REA McDonald (Barry and Emma) as a kid- the current situation in the Lucan area- is a complete seachange even from where we were in September. The big game changer- is the relaxation of Central Bank lending rules for FTBs- not the government grant- though the 18k units they're planning for the 12th Lock area- is an obvious sign of faith in the area.

Next issue- you can't access the area from 6.45AM to 09.00 in the morning- and from 16.30 to 19.00 in the evening- its just not funny. Facilities and amenities- in particular public transport, but also people using the Strawberry beds as a rat run to avoid the toll- have to be addressed- the fact that you have multiple local authorities controlling the area- each fighting their own corner with little if any coordination- is just part of the whole mess.

I wouldn't use Lucan as a barometer of the greater housing market for the Dublin area- it hasn't mirrored whats happened elsewhere in Dublin- its getting a solid burst in a short sweep- where progress has been more incremental elsewhere.

Yes- I firmly believe we've yet another localised property market in West Dublin- which is only now defining itself- and yes, its boom times all over....... Its not good for anyone- aside from perhaps those with a few properties looking to offload them (which I've been told there are a few at the moment).

A measure of the success of a property market in a particular area- is new estate agents opening premises. Lucan has seen two new estate agents since the New Year.

Baby01032012

DNG have moved into Clondalkin village where I live. Ray Cooke moved to larger premises and has expanded in terms of properties for sale out of its core Clondalkin and tallaght areas. All PSRA ( required to get estate agent license) approved courses are over booked again this year. Property is definitely on the up.

From a residential letting investment point of view it will be interesting to see impact new RTA rules have on property market. Has there been a mass exit by smaller investors out freeing up more properties for the owner occupier market.

myshirt

@The Conductor

Can you explain the access issues a bit more? I was not aware of this at all! (Not out that side)

AsianDub

I am seeing some houses being re-listed with a lower price than what they were originally asking. Sneaky re-listing them and not showing the change!

Muff Richardson

AsianDub wrote: »

I am seeing some houses being re-listed with a lower price than what they were originally asking. Sneaky re-listing them and not showing the change!

daftdrop is your friend.

this is common practice....<mod snip>

derekbro

AsianDub wrote: »

I am seeing some houses being re-listed with a lower price than what they were originally asking. Sneaky re-listing them and not showing the change!

I've noticed that a bit too. http://www.daftdrop.com keeps track though so i always check out places I'm interested in on that.

Samuel T. Cogley

Anyone care to place a guess on when we'll see older (80s and 90s) 1 bed apartments in D8 hit 250K again (if ever)? This is my exit point.

The D2 Quays apartments seem to have already gone a bit bonkers.

handlemaster

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Anyone care to place a guess on when we'll see older (80s and 90s) 1 bed apartments in D8 hit 250K again (if ever)? This is my exit point.

The D2 Quays apartments seem to have already gone a bit bonkers.

What are they at the moment 160k ?

Samuel T. Cogley

handlemaster wrote: »

What are they at the moment 160k ?

D2 worse apartment is on for 180K (smaller ground floor right on the quays). Aye I think my complex is about 160/170 for a 1 bed.

It's further up in D8 than this, not ground floor, back a bit from the quays (not much).

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/dublin-2/5-ushers-quay-dublin-2-dublin-1375439/

trobbin

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Anyone care to place a guess on when we'll see older (80s and 90s) 1 bed apartments in D8 hit 250K again (if ever)? This is my exit point.

The D2 Quays apartments seem to have already gone a bit bonkers.

Sure I'll have a guess at next summer. Could be even this year.

Samuel T. Cogley

trobbin wrote: »

Sure I'll have a guess at next summer. Could be even this year.

No.1 on the pints list if it does! :pac:

I reckon I need another 4-5 years but I honestly don't think it'll ever get there.

Selik

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

No.1 on the pints list if it does! :pac:

I reckon I need another 4-5 years but I honestly don't think it'll ever get there.

Inflation (when it eventually takes off) will definitely ensure it happens at some point but of course they won't be worth as much in real terms.

lcwill

handlemaster wrote: »

What are they at the moment 160k ?

Some are going more than 200k now but that still yields around 8% if the rent is 1300-1350.

Samuel T. Cogley

lcwill wrote: »

Some are going more than 200k now but that still yields around 8% if the rent is 1300-1350.

Potential rent on mine is around 1300-1400. Have great tenants and will have to increase the rent because of the new legislation. Still I suppose I can look after them at Xmas.

AsianDub

Anyone have a crystal ball and tell me whether I should buy or not in the next 1-6 months?

whiskeyman

AsianDub wrote: »

Anyone have a crystal ball and tell me whether I should buy or not in the next 1-6 months?

My mantra would be buy wherever you can be happy and afford it.

handlemaster

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

D2 worse apartment is on for 180K (smaller ground floor right on the quays). Aye I think my complex is about 160/170 for a 1 bed.

It's further up in D8 than this, not ground floor, back a bit from the quays (not much).

http://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/dublin-2/5-ushers-quay-dublin-2-dublin-1375439/

When was the last time your apt was this price ? How many years after did it go to 250k

FutureGuy

We are FTS and anything half decent in Limerick is going for 10%-20%+ over asking.